Pass Defense is Also Good

[PromisedLand]

I've been reading and listening to a lot of "expert" predictions on the games this weekend, and most of them have figured out that the Pats run defense is not the same one which allowed 158 rushing yards to the Broncos in their regular season matchup. In fact, it has been the best in the league of the second half of the year, they point out, allowing only 57 point something yards per game over that stretch (but omitting the week 17 game against the Fins in which the backups played).

What the experts have failed to see, though, is that the passing defense has also been excellent over that stretch. I did some research and put together the numbers over the last eight games of the regular season and the wild card playoff game, (but omitting the Vinny Testeverde stats from the second Jets game and the entire week 17 game, since those stats were achieved against our backups):

Date Game QB Att Compl Yds TD IN Rating Long
13-Nov @Miami G.Frerotte 47 25 360 2 1 83.6 47
20-Nov New Orleans A.Brooks 50 27 343 2 1 80.7 32
27-Nov @Kansas City T.Green 26 19 323 1 0 127.6 52
4-Dec N.Y. Jets B.Bollinger 37 15 135 0 1 39.8 17
11-Dec @Buffalo J.Losman 27 10 181 1 3 33.6 58
17-Dec Tampa Bay C.Simms 34 21 155 0 0 72.5 22
26-Dec @N.Y. Jets B.Bollinger 19 11 100 1 1 67.9 24
7-Jan Jacksonville B.Leftwich 31 18 179 0 1 61.1 24
7-Jan Jacksonville D.Garrard 8 3 68 0 0 68.8 41
[b]Totals 279 149 1844 7 8 55.5 [/b]

Sorry if that's a little hard to read; I tried to format it as a table but wasn't completely successful. Anyway, the point is that over their past eight meaningful games, the New England passing defense has allowed opposing quarterback ratings only a 55.5 passer rating, which is the 0th percentile. Maybe the "much maligned" secondary isn't that bad now, eh?

Granted, there were no Peyton Mannings or Carson Palmers or even Ben Rothlisbergers among the opposition (although Trent Green in KC is pretty good), but I still think that's pretty impressive, and all the more so when considered along with the run D.

 

[BelichickFan]

I don't have the energy to do it but just like the run defense, it is not fair to our defense to say "look who they've played". You can say that looking at the raw numbers but look at what those mediocre QBs did before and after they played us compared to what they did against us and it makes our defense look very, very good.

Are our DBs still vulnerable ? Yes although not nearly as much as before. But teams don't often, and certainly can't plan for, throwing the ball downfield because of our pass rush.

 

[TruthSeeker]

Our secondary is even weaker than last years depleted secondary, there is no denying that. Of the DB's we had in the SB last year, Wilson & Samuel are the only starters left, and have regressed somewhat (though they are playing better than the early part of the season). Then you replace Gay with Hobbs, and I'd say that is probably even, with Hobbs even possibly having a slight edge, but Hawkins can't compare to Harrison. It's not even close.

I think our front seven is the reason for our better play against the pass. They need to keep the pressure coming, or else it's pretty much season over (especially if we make it to Indy). Teams like Pitt & Denver have excellent running games, and I think our front 7 can slow them down, and even stop them, but if we don't get pressure on their QB's, Roethlisberger and Plummer can burn our secondary.

Like I said after the Tampa game, if we play like that in the playoffs, nobody can stop us. I am far from a football expert, but even a doofus like myself saw how they beat Tampa & Jacksonville, stop the run, and destroy the QB, and they have to continue doing this, or they go home. Pretty simple, we don't have any Deion Sanders' or Ty Law's out there to shut recievers down, we need pressure, pressure, and more pressure on the QB.

 

[BelichickFan]

Our secondary is even weaker than last years depleted secondary, there is no denying that. Of the DB's we had in the SB last year, Wilson & Samuel are the only starters left, and have regressed somewhat (though they are playing better than the early part of the season). Then you replace Gay with Hobbs, and I'd say that is probably even, with Hobbs even possibly having a slight edge, but Hawkins can't compare to Harrison. It's not even close.

I like Hobbs better than Gay. By more than a slight edge. Obviously Hawkins can't compare to Harrison but the pass rush is better this year and Hawkins is closer to Harrison in coverage than he is in overall game.

 

[TruthSeeker]

I like Hobbs better than Gay. By more than a slight edge. Obviously Hawkins can't compare to Harrison but the pass rush is better this year and Hawkins is closer to Harrison in coverage than he is in overall game.

As well as the timely INT's, Harrison was great against the run too, and if we face Denver & Pittsburgh back to back, it sure would have been nice to have Harrison making those INT's and crushing RB's. Somehow they are going to have to do that without him. Harrison is without a doubt the toughest loss to overcome. I'm not saying it can't be done, but it sure is going to be a major struggle.

 

[jczxohn1]

The front 7 is better than last yr. By a lot. Hawkins covers well. The whole secondary swarms to the ball on running plays. Rodney isn't there, but they're doing it differently, each guy carrying a piece of him. IMO, this D is younger and better than last yr's.

 

[PromisedLand]

I don't have the energy to do it but just like the run defense, it is not fair to our defense to say "look who they've played". You can say that looking at the raw numbers but look at what those mediocre QBs did before and after they played us compared to what they did against us and it makes our defense look very, very good.

Are our DBs still vulnerable ? Yes although not nearly as much as before. But teams don't often, and certainly can't plan for, throwing the ball downfield because of our pass rush.

I actually did exactly that in the similar thread I started on KFFL. Here are the results, which compare the opposing QB rating vs. the Patriots defense vs. the same QB's rating against the league as a whole, for the same games and QB's I listed before:

Date Game QB Rating Rating vs. Rest of League Difference
 
13-Nov @Miami	 G.Frerotte 83.6 71.9 11.7
20-Nov New Orleans A.Brooks	 80.7 70.0 10.7
27-Nov @Kansas City T.Green	 127.6 90.1 37.5
4-Dec N.Y. Jets B.Bollinger 39.8 72.9 -33.1
11-Dec @Buffalo	J.Losman	 33.6 64.9 -31.3
17-Dec Tampa Bay C.Simms	 72.5 81.4 - 8.9
26-Dec @N.Y. Jets B.Bollinger 67.9 72.9 - 5.0
7-Jan Jacksonville B.Leftwich 61.1 89.3 -28.2
7-Jan Jacksonville D.Garrard	68.8 83.9 -15.1

(Again, I apologize for the formatting.)

These results actually surprised me. What they show is that over the first three weeks of the period, (13-Nov @Miami, 20-Nov New Orleans and 27-Nov @Kansas City) the opposing QB rating against us was actually higher than against the rest of the league. But in week 12, the trend reversed, and over the last 5 games (again omitting week 17 because our starters only played a bit of the game) the opposing QB's rating against our D has actually been significantly lower than the same QB's rating against the rest of the league.

What does this mean? Like all stats, different people will come up with different theories as to what they signify. Some might say the secondary has now "jelled". That would be my interpretation. Others will disagree. It's OK, it's a free country!

 

[shmessy]

Our 2 starting CB's : Hobbs and Samuel

If either one of those gets hurt, our next 3 CB's: Hank, Troy and Andre

Hold your breath folks.

 

[BelichickFan]

What does this mean? Like all stats, different people will come up with different theories as to what they signify. Some might say the secondary has now "jelled". That would be my interpretation. Others will disagree. It's OK, it's a free country!

In large part I don't think any of us know, the Front Seven has been so dominant that we haven't needed much of a secondary.

That said, there were several times last week when Leftwich had time and wanted to throw but didn't. Was that because we had good coverage or because he was rusty and couldn't pull the trigger . . . without the coaches' tape to see the whole field we can't know.

 

[BelichickFan]

Our 2 starting CB's : Hobbs and Samuel

If either one of those gets hurt, our next 3 CB's: Hank, Troy and Andre

Hold your breath folks.

You're worrying for nothing - how often does a CB get hurt ?

 

[devour]

Regardless of what the stats say, I still don't trust our secondary, especially Samuel. The 7-8 yd+ gains will be there all day for Denver. It will be up the the defensive front 7 to win this game.

 

[BusterTBronco]

Sure it is. That's why your pass defense is ranked 30th in the league!

 

[pats1]

The Patriots have shut down #1 receivers all year. The big, bad Charlie Adams, or Todd Devoe, Darius Watts, or even old friend David Terrell will certainly be laying a whooping on the Pats!

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Our 2 starting CB's : Hobbs and Samuel

If either one of those gets hurt, our next 3 CB's: Hank, Troy and Andre

Hold your breath folks.

Andre? As in Andre Davis? I hope your not confusing him with Bam Childress.

Our next 3-4 CBs: Hank, Artrell, Troy, and Bam if activated.
Sanders would probably come in at SS to move Artrell to CB.