Packers would lose hold on first-round bye with loss to Patriots

[TheBostonStraggler]

GB is playing an AFC opponent. In purely logical terms isn't losing this one a little less painful (or if they have another AFC opponent)? This is late November/December football. Every win or loss becomes so meaningful it's hard to believe this one matters more than their upcoming division game/Lions game (in terms of their playoff 'situation').

Yet this game likely has some motivational importance just because it's the Patriots, the benchmark franchise. When the Patriots come to town beating them is validating, temporarily sating/pepping up the fan base, getting those franchise importance favorable words printed in their local papers. Add to that this year that 'Beat the Patriots' pot is a bit sweetened because, as of right now, we are considered by many to be the NFL's best team/team considered more likely than others to win the SB. I'm sure the GB coaches and players realize a victory tomorrow makes a clear statement about themselves as a team and to the whole NFL domain. The playoff seeding consideration, IMHO, is not on the list of 'additional motivating factors' (at least not more than normal).

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

Are Manning and Luck chumps then?

I can answer this one! The answer is 'no they are not chumps' .

The Patriots are not due for a loss. I'd be surprised to see the Patriots get soundly beaten again this year due to being unprepared or over matched or lack of fire or because they are due. At this point, IMHO, the Patriots (as frequently the case with BB) are in or around their groove. I believe BB and staff have a decent feel for their team/what it's capable of with optimally proven ways to implement the pieces. So oif the Patriots lose it will be due to the other team being a quality opponent, one that puts together a good game plan, executes it well, and throws the Patriots off of their execution sufficiently. But it's going to be a dog fight for anyone to knock off the Patriots.

I'm not declaring the Patriots unbeatable. They do not appear, at least as of right now, to be so dominant that a loss is too difficult to envision. But the Patriots are not easy to run against, have a secondary that will create coverage problems for QBs on a sufficient number of plays (enough to disrupt scoring), operate solid special teams, and whose offense can run or pass effectively depending on what the opponents are showing in game softness on. All of these things have been demonstrated by the Patriots multiple times now to believe this is the 2014 team. So if this truly is the 2014 Patriots, opponents are not going to be getting any 'Patriots are due for a loss' victories.

 

[SVN]

A good story in the Milwaukee paper about BB explaining Dom Capers defense.





http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/284158771.html

I think this might the most varying defense pats will play . Unlike other teams which keep playing straight upfront, these guys are going to spin the dial so to speak forcing our offense to adjust. Should be interesting how we handle this.

 

[luuked]

I think this might the most varying defense pats will play . Unlike other teams which keep playing straight upfront, these guys are going to spin the dial so to speak forcing our offense to adjust. Should be interesting how we handle this.

What makes me feel a bit better about it is that it seems like BB has a good grasp on LeBeau-esque defenses. At least the last few games against a LeBeau defense suggest that. If what Capers is running is really conceptually similar then I think we will be mostly fine.

In the end, the key will be winning third downs and turnovers.

 

[Triumph]

Are Manning and Luck chumps then?

P Mannings arm is getting old.

Luck does not impress me at all.

 

[Triumph]

I look for a close game.

The Pats are not blowing the Packers out at home.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

Are Manning and Luck chumps then?

IMO Rogers is the best QB this team will have to face this year...luck is good but still makes horrible decisions. Rodgers rarely makes a mistake and has a strong arm unlike manning. Not chumps but Rodgers is the best out of them.

 

[terabthia2]

I look for a close game.

The Pats are not blowing the Packers out at home.

I expect a close game, too. However, the Pats blowing out the Packers would not shock me, given how much of a roll they're on and how well oiled they are right now. The only result that would shock me would be if the Packers blew out the Pats. Any other result, i.e.:

Packers win solidly but not blowing out the Pats
Packers win close game
Pats win close game
Pats win solidly but not blowing out the Packers
Pats blow out the Packers

would not shock me. I'm predicting a close game, but still on the fence about who comes out on top.

 

[SVN]

What makes me feel a bit better about it is that it seems like BB has a good grasp on LeBeau-esque defenses. At least the last few games against a LeBeau defense suggest that. If what Capers is running is really conceptually similar then I think we will be mostly fine.

In the end, the key will be winning third downs and turnovers.

It is similar I guess but I think capers has had decent games vs brady once or twice he has played him. I remember the 2003 game in houston , when brady threw a last second TD in regulation to force overtime. And the last time packers were in foxboro, he played a lot of man to man and brady didnt throw for very much.
This game might come down to pats solving one of its achilles in past playoff games with team playing man to man tight. Good opportunity to see if lafell etc can get separation and make some catches.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

packers need a 1st round bye or home field throughout i think in order to make it to the big game. I don't think their D will be able to play well on the road

 

[SVN]

http://www.packersnews.com/story/sp...dictability-part-patriots-game-plan/19645629/ interesting read. also outlines what capers has tried to do this season.

 

[Archeryaddict12]

This could be a very simple game plan this week. It seems like the packers and everyone is trying to figure out what the pats are gonna do with certain packages. This could just be a simple game plan

 

[meatface]

Im really hoping that that week 17 Packers v Lions game will be for the division win

 

[SVN]

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/packers/283723781.html

another interesting thought

• Q: fred orr, laurium,mi - Tom, thanx for your game blog...lotta fun...Sun vs NE, I think GB's gonna have to work the middle of the field with shorter ball control passes, very much similar to what NE's gonna have to do vs GB. I'm lookin at the same basic game plan from each side..At least there's no read option or jet sweeps to worry about here. What do you think ?
• A: Tom Silverstein - I'm not sure Fred. I've seen some things where New England leaves it's middle exposed in order to combine coverage and rush. I could see Rodgers going deep early to try to stretch out the safeties and put the fear in Belichick that he's going to hit a big one. That would open things up for Lacy. After the Seattle debacle, I think the Packers come out swinging. I think Rodgers throws it wherever he wants. They play aggressively and try to hit big plays, the way they've been doing for most of the last two months

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

Im really hoping that that week 17 Packers v Lions game will be for the division win

I don't count on the Lions staying around the top of their division too long. They have a cake walk until that game. and so do packers. So this week is pretty big for GB

 

[meatface]

I don't count on the Lions staying around the top of their division too long. They have a cake walk until that game. and so do packers. So this week is pretty big for GB

The Lions are playing the Bucs, Vikings and Chicago. Not exactly stiff competition coming up for them

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

The Lions are playing the Bucs, Vikings and Chicago. Not exactly stiff competition coming up for them

no but they are still the lions

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

IMO Rogers is the best QB this team will have to face this year...luck is good but still makes horrible decisions. Rodgers rarely makes a mistake and has a strong arm unlike manning. Not chumps but Rodgers is the best out of them.

I agree that Rogers might be the best QB we will face (though it's arguable Manning more so), however, one of the key phrases is "not chumps". Manning and Luck (and Rogers) are QBs/teams who have proven they can win significantly more than they can lose.
The ultimate conclusion here: diminishing Luck and Manning to prove GB may be/will be that too high a hill to climb is bogus. The Colt and Bronco victories were quality wins against quality QBs.

 

[New England Pride]

packers need a 1st round bye or home field throughout i think in order to make it to the big game. I don't think their D will be able to play well on the road

Interesting thought, care to elaborate? Defense tends to travel pretty well. My only thought would be that passing games are most effective at home, and obviously if New England was away, the passing o they are going up against is home.

 

[goheels22002]

This could be a very simple game plan this week. It seems like the packers and everyone is trying to figure out what the pats are gonna do with certain packages. This could just be a simple game plan

Looking at the Packers' OL, they're 23rd in run blocking based on runs stuffed or runs for a loss, and they're in the middle of the pack in sacks allowed. On defense, I suspect the Patriots will be very mindful of their lanes and keeping the running game contained while focusing on making it as hard as possible to get the ball in Jordy Nelson's hands.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol

On offense, the Patriots may go heavy and run the ball a lot. The Green Bay defense is 22nd against the run. A steady diet of Jonas Gray, LeGarrette Blount and Shane Vereen will help keep Rodgers off the field and the strength of the Packers defense - the linebackers - in the box. That will open things up across the middle for Gronk and Wright.