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Overreactive Fans

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by PatsFanInVa, Mar 8, 2007.

  1. PatsFanInVa

    PatsFanInVa PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    It's the nature of the beast for fans to be reactive, but sometimes I think we do exactly what the media clowns do, trying to be the first to report/predict something regardless of accuracy.

    I noted a number of threads about Stallworth turning into "well, Stallworth didn't happen, now what..." laments. One of them even had it in the title.

    Whereas every media item I read said he is going to visit Tennessee and Miami, and make a decision.

    Could somebody present me a statistic that says a player never visits another team after the one he eventually joins? Or is this just us going nuts on no real information? The whole "If he was gonna sign he would have done a couple days ago" theory seems flawed from that perspective.

    Not that I'm sold on Stallworth, Moss, or any other particular receiver as "the answer." I just don't get the hysteria. Can someone explain this point of view?

    PFnV
  2. Clonamery

    Clonamery PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Too much coffee?
  3. ChoWZa

    ChoWZa Rookie

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    Any rational player would see all his options before agreeing to a deal. IMO. I also think thats why Adalius visited San Fran first...to see what they would offer because he knew the odds were he was going to end up in New England. By tomorrow we can put the Donte stuff to rest as his agent suspects he will have made a decision by then.
  4. Fumblerooski

    Fumblerooski Rookie

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    Daniel Graham
  5. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Profuse posters proudly produce prodigious punditry.

  6. Clonamery

    Clonamery PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Lol! (Seriously, this is cutting edge stuff but not anything like you know who of if-you-can't-beat-em-create-your-own-patsfan-website.)
  7. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    Regarding Stallworth, the longer he goes without being blown away by an offer the more likely he comes to Foxboro IMO.

    On the larger question, it's probably a combination of us being used to other teams outbidding us and also a defense mechanism for those who are disappointed.
  8. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Surely you jest! The moderator to the mods himself wrote an entire stand-up script to validate the comparison. You sir are an instigator!
  9. Clonamery

    Clonamery PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    My, my, did little ol' me miss that?
  10. PatsMyBoyz!

    PatsMyBoyz! Rookie

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    Good post as always,PFnV.
    Part of the excitement/hysteria probably rests first with the conflicting reports going out at the time-he signed,he didn't sign,he signed,he didn't,he left the Pats' offer on the table,his agent's playing games,etcetc. Situations like that create a bit of a frenzy and it's difficult not to get caught up in that initial excitement---> disapointment roller coaster ride. Cooler heads no doubt prevail and we'll see what happens tomorrow.
    Also,AD and Welken never left Foxboro,so no doubt there was an expectation that Donte would do the same.
    Had Donte's visit occured independently of (or before) the others,the situation probably would have been taken with more proverbial grains of salt.
    Timing and human nature at work.
  11. ClevTrev

    ClevTrev Rookie

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    It all boils down to the individual FA. AD, Brady, and Welker said they knew what they wanted and where they wanted to be before any visits.

    Dan Graham wanted to thoughtfully compare his options.

    Factor in the media frenzy in the midst of this trying to scoop all other outlets and be the first to report the story, we've got chaos. They want fans to come to them first because they always break the news.

    Not sure all this fuss is really reasonable with a guy like Stallworth, but time will tell . . .
  12. TheSeymonsta

    TheSeymonsta Rookie

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    Regarding Stallworth....


    You have your choice to play with

    Tom Brady

    or

    Vince Young

    or

    Fumblepepper/Lemon



    What is your choice....:eek: :rolleyes:
  13. Patriotic Fervor

    Patriotic Fervor Rookie

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    And so, Mr. Stallworth, I must ask you - Deal...or No Deal?
  14. arrellbee

    arrellbee Rookie

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    Very interesting question ! :)

    I certainly don't have a 'for sure' answer, but it seems like there might be a couple things that you see in this.

    First, I think folks are really uncomfortable with uncertainty. We are a 'now' society. So maybe they 'decide' what the result will be so they don't have to hang for days without resolution. I think we saw this on both sides of the Stallworth issue. First everyone wanted to jump on the report that Stallworth had signed, even though many of these kind of 'early' scoops turn out to be without foundation. Then folks wanted to get closure and decided that if there was no answer yet, that he just definitely wouldn't sign.

    Second, I suspect folks want to be 'prophetic' or be one to 'call the shot'. They pick one of the alternatives and make the declaration this 'this' is going to be the result. (The fact that jumping to a particular conclusion will probably make them wrong about 50% of the time - or more .... - doesn't seem to ever connect with them).

    Third, of course, in cases like Stallworth's with respect to the Patriots, is an apparent history of experience that indicates that the Patriots rarely (if ever) outbid other teams and that players who don't respond immediately to the Patriots mystique and sign up for a moderate compensation package seem almost certainly likely to find a higher bidder elsewhere. The fact that they didn't sign to the offer seems to indicate that their objective is simply the most money - which some other team will almost certainly offer.

    There may also be an expectation of what to expect from players with particular agents representing them.

    So, while I, for one, think it is far from certain that Stallworth will sign elsewhere, I would have to figure that the odds are pretty low at this point that he will be a Patriot.

    Fun question.
    /cheers
  15. PatsFanInVa

    PatsFanInVa PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Thoughtful responses all, well, except possibly Box, but he was at least alliterative. I'm autobumping because the whole first page is full of "fuggedaboudit" again.

    I honestly can live without Stallworth and without Moss. But I want to see the ink on the paper before giving up on anybody making a Foxboro visit. I might not see the wisdom of a move, but if BB thinks a guy is worth checking out, well, I'll wait, have another glass of kool-aid, and see what happens.

    Strikes me that the sides were close, and the agent said "waitaminnit waitaminnit waitaminnit... you're supposed to see 2 more teams... don't you want to at least hear what they have to offer?"

    An extra million APY might make him go "Huh, Young's a good guy, and they took me to a nice restaurant..." But not an extra 200K a year (guaranteed $ being proportionate.)

    Okay, for totally unrelated reasons, I'm taking a xanax now. This may be my last coherent post.

    PFnV
  16. ClevTrev

    ClevTrev Rookie

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    Good thread, PFnV. I'm guessing Stallworth feels his value is down, and he's willing to wait for the highest bidder.
  17. PatsFanInVa

    PatsFanInVa PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I actually think he'll have some slightly better offers, and drop by beantown again. Just me with the rosy colored glasses.
  18. hwc

    hwc On the Roster

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    I don't think the fans are unreasonably pessimistic. Two reasons:

    a) In most cases, a free agent continues visiting until he signs somewhere and stops visiting. Since Stallworth continued visiting after leaving Foxboro, it's clear that the Pats offer, if any, was no sufficient to get him to pick up a pen.

    b) Since his visits included the Titans and the Dolphins, it is clear that playing for a winning franchise means nothing to him. From that, we can surmise that he's all about the money or the South Beach nightlife, or whatever. It is unlikely that the Pats offer will be the absolute top dollar.

    Could he surprise us and sign with the Pats? Sure. Free agency is full of surprises. Is it likely? Probably not. I think Pats fans are pretty knowledgeable in that way.
  19. PatsFanInVa

    PatsFanInVa PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Okay, I realize I shifted the burden of proof, but does anyone have stats on this, that "in most cases the FA visits, and stops at the team he will play for?" Who in his right mind would be the first visit, if this were true?

    I will buy the idea that it is more likely that a guy signs here first than last, for example, since the scenario includes people who've been wooed from point A to point B, and are just showing up to pop the champagne cork.

    Seems to me we're going by recent history (4 corkers in a weekend,) rather than any kind of reliable stats.

    If we can not substantiate statements like "most of the time," I can't take them seriously... of course by this time Friday (or Saturday or Sunday,) maybe those guys will be proven right (this time.)

    PFnV
  20. hwc

    hwc On the Roster

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    Who is his right mind would keep stats on free agent visits? Seriously.

    All I can offer is that, in many years of watching NFL free agency, players usually jump off the carousel and grab the pen when they get the offer they like.

    For one thing, teams sometime stipulate that the offer is only good until the player gets on a plane to leave. Look at it from the Pats perspective. Say they get a deal done with another receiver they like. Are they supposed to wait around for Stallworth to finish his world tour and get back to them? Assuming the Pats actually made an offer to Stallworth (and I'm not sure they did), what are they supposed to think when he says, "OK, let me go talk to the Titans..." Pioli and Bellichick aren't going to wait around for that nonsense.

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