Overlooked factors to keep an eye on

[Tunescribe]

This might bear watching as the season progresses: through seven games the Patriots have yet to score in the kicking game or defensively. Last year we scored five defensive touchdowns (four via interception, one via fumble) and three in the kicking game (two kickoff returns, one punt return).

Also, last season's +28 turnover differential was pretty significant. So far after seven games we're +2. (Thank goodness Brady isn't normally interception-prone or that our ball carriers fumble often.)

I'm sure there are statistical formulas that can crunch these numbers down to what they mean in the won-loss column, but so far they certainly reinforce the obvious: In New England, fortunes ride with the offense. On that front, I'd like to see more of Ridley carrying the ball. He is the ONLY Pats running back with carries over 20 yards, and he's got three of them.

 

[Gumby]

I'd like to see more of Ridley carrying the ball. He is the ONLY Pats running back with carries over 20 years, and he's got three of them.

I thought Ben Vereen was the "old" rookie. Now I find out Ridley is over 60.

 

[Wax Frog]

He is the ONLY Pats running back with carries over 20 years, and he's got three of them.

My God, has the rushing offense been this bad?

 

[Tunescribe]

I thought Ben Vereen was the "old" rookie. Now I find out Ridley is over 60.

My God, has the rushing offense been this bad?

Heh. A guy tries to write a thoughtful post and this is what you get. Original reference corrected.

 

[jal]

We have to accept that the defense can only improve marginally. Maybe fewer busted coverages and a little better push from Haynesworth playing more snaps, but ultimately they are not going to stop people often and will have to settle for being tight in the red zone. That's ok - the Saints won in 2009 with this formula (plus a lot of turnovers).

The defense has been bad from day 1 and isn't any worse than before. The growing problem this season is that the offense has been sagging since opening day. Yards / play (by week): 8.8, 7.5, 7.0, 6.7, 6.2, 5.4, 4.3.

We have to get big plays back into the gameplan. That means more TE down the seams, more play action (establishing the running game), more Taylor Price and less Branch / Ochocinco. If the offense can get back to that early season explosiveness and the defense can tighten up just a little bit, the Patriots will have a shot. Not a great one, but they could get on a hot streak that carries them to a SB championship.

 

[Wax Frog]

Heh. A guy tries to write a thoughtful post and this is what you get. Original reference corrected.

Games like the last one bring out the levity in me, a defense mechanism

 

[billdog3484]

My college coach always said this prior to every game...

you turn the ball over 1 less time than your opponent you win 68% of the games

you turn the ball over 2 less times than your opponent you win 81% of the games

you turn the ball over 3 less then than your opponent you win 90% of the games

(1) turnovers, (2) big plays and (3) penalties

also, another thing he ALWAYS said (in reference to personnel)

"misassignments and misalignments will cost you a lot more than mismatches"

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Well our KR have been downgraded from last year. Unless Edelman somehow stays on the roster PR will be downgraded too. Just no threats back there so that decrease is expected.

The defense is as good if not better personnel wise. The only major subtractions are Butler and Sanders and those guys are very replaceable, though time will tell if we made a critical mistake letting them go without competent replacements. Merriweather as we're seeing in Chicago pretty much sucks for the most part and we're lucky he didnt give up more big plays. Carter and Anderson are quality pass rush additions and AH has shown signs that he can make a big impact later on. So I wouldn't rule out a similar turnaround in them this year. Our schedule down the stretch is very weak so we just have to weather the storm the next few weeks and we can slowly build momentum against the weaker opponents.

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

My college coach always said this prior to every game...

you turn the ball over 1 less time than your opponent you win 68% of the games

you turn the ball over 2 less times than your opponent you win 81% of the games

you turn the ball over 3 less then than your opponent you win 90% of the games

(1) turnovers, (2) big plays and (3) penalties

also, another thing he ALWAYS said (in reference to personnel)

"misassignments and misalignments will cost you a lot more than mismatches"

Good stuff Billdog, philosophy and math combined. Sounds like something BB would also say.

 

[supafly]

Unless Edelman somehow stays on the roster PR will be downgraded too.

I wouldn't think Edelman will be released, at least not this year anyways Patsy. Actually, I think he'll be back to returning kicks/punts in a few days vs. the NYG.