Outside Linebacker

[Kontradiction]

Re: Olb

I'm still perplexed in what anyone sees in Ninkovich that makes them think he a possible answer?

SSDD

Hope. And that's about it.

 

[eom]

Re: Olb

Thanks for the tip.

I went through the last 6 games of the regular season to take a look at where Burgess was lining up. I decided to do the last 6 games in order to save time and also because I think that will give us a better picture of where he would project to play this year.

I'm assuming that since Ty Warren is listed as a "LE" and Mike Wright is listed as a "RE" that "DLE" translates to 4-3/sub package defensive end. If not, then it doesn't appear that they're making distinction between the positions and we'll have to watch the games.

It should also be noted that PFF doesn't seem to break down when players switch positions in sub packages; for instance, they never list Banta-Cain as a DRE even though he lined up at that position frequently in sub packages. In fact, no one is listed as a DRE in any of these games.

I don't think you know what you're talking about --- but you're getting closer.....

now, all that remains is to total up the number of snaps, count up the OLB snaps and the 3 man front DE snaps, and let us know the %'s.

I'm going to give you a clue --- if you see a nose tackle in there, that's a 3 man front --- 2 tackles means a 4 man front.

by the way, weeks 11-17 is actually 7 games --- not 6 games....

 

[RayClay]

I think people are underestimating the amount of talent overall that could be added at linebacker. Crable seems a joke, but they would have cut him if they didn't think he could play.

If he can, we've added him, McKenzie, Spikes and Cunningham to a core of Mayo TBC and Burgess with another years experience each, with Guyton, Woods and Ninch, who hasn't looked bad, in reserve.

Compare that to one high priced disgruntled FA and a bunch of UDFA, which is what we had before (plus Mayo, [playing out of position] of course).

Now we'll need patience (ha ha) because much of that talent is green, but I like our long term chances if we have health with a pool like that to draw on.

 

[mgteich]

Come on now. We likely have the worst set of OLB's of any team that will be in the playoffs. Banta-Cain is our top gun! And then there's Woods, Burgess, Ninkovich, Cunningham and Crable.

YOu mention Ninkovich not looking bad in the over 25% of reps he played. Compared to who? He couldn't beat out Thomas on the depth chart. But now he has because Thomas is gone.

Let's face the fact that this is our worst unit by far.

HOWEVER, it is also about the same unit that was part of a defense that allowed the 5th fewest points in the league. So, Belichick knows how to scheme so that this group will be serviceable. Finally, the improvements at ILB and CB should help OLB play.

But, BOTTOM LINE, I don't think we underestimate the talent of our OLB's by calling them very weak. How many of our OLB's would start or play more than 50% of the defensive reps for other playoff teams? Three will probably play more than 50% of the resp for the patriots.

I think people are underestimating the amount of talent overall that could be added at linebacker. Crable seems a joke, but they would have cut him if they didn't think he could play.

If he can, we've added him, McKenzie, Spikes and Cunningham to a core of Mayo TBC and Burgess with another years experience each, with Guyton, Woods and Ninch, who hasn't looked bad, in reserve.

Compare that to one high priced disgruntled FA and a bunch of UDFA, which is what we had before (plus Mayo, [playing out of position] of course).

Now we'll need patience (ha ha) because much of that talent is green, but I like our long term chances if we have health with a pool like that to draw on.

 

[RayClay]

Come on now. We likely have the worst set of OLB's of any team that will be in the playoffs. Banta-Cain is our top gun! And then there's Woods, Burgess, Ninkovich, Cunningham and Crable.

YOu mention Ninkovich not looking bad in the over 25% of reps he played. Compared to who? He couldn't beat out Thomas on the depth chart. But now he has because Thomas is gone.

Let's face the fact that this is our worst unit by far.

HOWEVER, it is also about the same unit that was part of a defense that allowed the 5th fewest points in the league. So, Belichick knows how to scheme so that this group will be serviceable. Finally, the improvements at ILB and CB should help OLB play.

But, BOTTOM LINE, I don't think we underestimate the talent of our OLB's by calling them very weak. How many of our OLB's would start or play more than 50% of the defensive reps for other playoff teams? Three will probably play more than 50% of the resp for the patriots.

Oh quit panicking. Ninchovich looked good for a UDFA that cost us nothing. That used to be the basis of our entire LB corps.

Now, besides Mayo who we already had, we have two second round picks, two third round picks a former all pro rusher and a former player who's come back better than before and is off a 10 sack season. Sounds like puffery, but every word there is true.

Compare that to the one 5th round pick that never showed up and the rest of the draft dregs in 8 years, the Biesels, and senior citizens (with all due respect to Seau) we were using.

It ain't where you start, it's where you finish. don't forget, BB is taking over the D, which means hands on instruction for the babies. I'm optimistic and I've been a fierce critic of our failure to add talent at the position.

It's camp competition for one thing, something we've never had at LB since our superior group started to age.

 

[RayClay]

Also, lack of a pass rush has hardly been our only problem at linebacker. Quick RBs like Addai and Leon Washington have been running through the middle of our defense like kids running from their grandparents. Distinct lack of pass coverage in that area also.

Face the growing pains and be glad we have some athleticism at last. Who gives a crap what the magazines rate us before the season, that prize is for the Jets and Skins.

 

[eom]

HOWEVER, it is also about the same unit that was part of a defense that allowed the 5th fewest points in the league. So, Belichick knows how to scheme so that this group will be serviceable.

5th is 5th --- every team in the league plays a few chumps, and a few good teams, but I thought I'd break the schedule down and see how it shook out game by game.

league average offense is right around 20-22 pts scored, I believe, so I'll have 2 categories --- those that were held below league average, and those that scored above.

BELOW:
buf - 17 (6-10 28th 16 ppg)
jets - 16 (9-7 17th 22 ppg)
atl - 10 (9-7 13th 23 ppg)
bal - 14 (9-7 9th 24 ppg)
ten - 0 (8-8 16th 22 ppg)
tam - 7 (3-13 30th 15 ppg)
mia - 17 (7-9 15th 22.5 ppg)
jets - 7 (9-7 17th 22 ppg)
car - 10 (8-8 21st 20 ppg)
buf - 10 (6-10 28th 16 ppg)
jax - 7 (7-9 24th 18 ppg)

ABOVE:
*ind - 35 (14-2 7th 26 ppg)
*no - 38 (13-3 1st 32 ppg)
hou - 27 (9-7 10th 24 ppg)
WC bal - 33 (9-7 9th 24 ppg)

*superbowl teams

11-4 --- that's not bad, but only a couple of those 11 really had above average offenses, and baltimore got their revenge when it counted.
the 4 teams that made us look bad were the only top 10 offenses we faced, and since that's who we measure ourselves against, I'd say it's not so great.
on the other hand, those teams got to be top 10 by scoring on a lot of teams.

fwiw, we play 5 of the top 10 2009 offenses in the 2010 regular season, but it's really the playoffs that matter, and we got smoked last playoff game we were in.

 

[TheComeback]

Re: Olb

I don't think you know what you're talking about --- but you're getting closer.....

now, all that remains is to total up the number of snaps, count up the OLB snaps and the 3 man front DE snaps, and let us know the %'s.

I'm going to give you a clue --- if you see a nose tackle in there, that's a 3 man front --- 2 tackles means a 4 man front.

by the way, weeks 11-17 is actually 7 games --- not 6 games....

I don't have to do anything. The data proves that the team has no confidence in Burgess to play the run, so why would they be lining him up at 3-4 DE?

How about you actually address the content of my post, instead of claiming that I don't know what I'm talking about? Especially since you've contributed nothing to the discussion thus far.

I don't think you even read my post. PFF doesn't break down every formation in a game. They look at the very first snap and then assign the players' positions based on that. They don't state how many times he played OLB or DE. They just assume that if he started as a DE or LB that he played that position alone for the entire game.

BTW, according to PFF, three of his six starts were at OLB. You could even count it as four, since his start at Atlanta has him and TBC listed as DEs with base 3-4 personnel (which would be a five man line). The others were at DLE in sub packages.

 

[eom]

Re: Olb

I don't think you even read my post. PFF doesn't break down every formation in a game. They look at the very first snap and then assign the players' positions based on that. They don't state how many times he played OLB or DE. They just assume that if he started as a DE or LB that he played that position alone for the entire game.

as I mentioned, you don't know what you're talking about, so maybe you shouldn't comment.

this might be a life lesson for you.

 

[Deus Irae]

Oh quit panicking. Ninchovich looked good for a UDFA that cost us nothing. That used to be the basis of our entire LB corps.

Now, besides Mayo who we already had, we have two second round picks, two third round picks a former all pro rusher and a former player who's come back better than before and is off a 10 sack season. Sounds like puffery, but every word there is true.

Compare that to the one 5th round pick that never showed up and the rest of the draft dregs in 8 years, the Biesels, and senior citizens (with all due respect to Seau) we were using.

It ain't where you start, it's where you finish. don't forget, BB is taking over the D, which means hands on instruction for the babies. I'm optimistic and I've been a fierce critic of our failure to add talent at the position.

It's camp competition for one thing, something we've never had at LB since our superior group started to age.

1.) At OLB, this is the same group as last season, with the exception of Cunningham for Thomas.

2.) BB was giving them hands-on instruction all last year.

3.) Ninkovich couldn't beat out Thomas last year. He's a 5 year NFL veteran with 29 career tackles. The odds are pretty good that he's not the next Mike Vrabel.

4.) TBC had a career year, yet the OLBs, as a group, still stunk on ice.

5.) Mayo is not an OLB. Spikes is not an OLB. McKenzie is not an OLB.

6.) Crable's next regular season NFL snap will be his first.

Being concerned about that group would seem to be a very wise starting point.

 

[AzPatsFan]

The stat I recall seeing had the Pats as the 2nd or 3rd worst defense in the league on 3rd and 8 or greater. That would make it seem that the magic pass rush seemed to not appear as much as it did everywhere else in the NFL.

In this case I would say lack of magic equaled lack of talent.

If they were that bad on the relatively few 3rd and 8s they stopped, they would never have finished:
a) 5th in Points Allowed;
b) third in limiting opponents Red zone opportunities;
c) 11th in overall Defense;
d) 13th in 3rd down conversions allowed.

Either that or they were the absolute best in the league in stopping 3rd and 2 opportunities. Sorry, I want to see the stats...

I maintain this young rebuilt Defensne is not far from being dominant. It may not fully appear in 2010, but will by 2011 or 2012.

 

[chevss454]

Most here agree OLB is our weakest position. How about this for a solution.

Rumors are rampant on Steelers boards that the Steelers are willing to trade Lamarr Woodley straight up for Mankins. Woodley is only 25 years old and wants @ 10M/. He would be a huge upgrade and is a top 3 caliber OLB.

Any takers?

ProFootballFocus.com - By Position

 

[patsfan-1982]

Most here agree OLB is our weakest position. How about this for a solution.

Rumors are rampant on Steelers boards that the Steelers are willing to trade Lamarr Woodley straight up for Mankins. Woodley is only 25 years old and wants @ 10M/. He would be a huge upgrade and is a top 3 caliber OLB.

Any takers?

ProFootballFocus.com - By Position

the pats wont give him 10 million maybe they would do it if they trade and he plays out he cantract and walks after the season

 

[mgteich]

Are you asking whether I'd trade a player who is not under contract for one of the top LB's in football?

Most here agree OLB is our weakest position. How about this for a solution.

Rumors are rampant on Steelers boards that the Steelers are willing to trade Lamarr Woodley straight up for Mankins. Woodley is only 25 years old and wants @ 10M/. He would be a huge upgrade and is a top 3 caliber OLB.

Any takers?

ProFootballFocus.com - By Position

 

[Ring 6]

Re: Olb

Burgess did play in the base defense \a few times as an OLB, but more towards the end of the year. He started 6 games, though I'm not sure that can be interpreted as playing OLB in the 3-4. Prior to that he was almost exclusively a DE in the 4-man line as you have pointed out.

He appeared to be pretty weak against the run as an OLB but I'm not sure if anyone else on the team was really much better than him in that area. I'd give him the edge as a starter in the base 3-4 D at this point simply based on experience, but I think Ninkovich and Cunningham could give him a serious challenge, especially as Cunningham adapts to the NFL.


The only stat I could find was that he played 57.3% of all snaps on defense. That comes from Reiss. 57.3% places him slightly above Adalius Thomas; the only other OLB with more snaps was TBC. Reiss has him listed as a DE, presumably because of his role in sub packages with 4-man lines, not because he played significant snaps at 3-4 DE. Reiss has lately been labeling him as an OLB or hybrid DE/OLB.

I don't have the percentages, but I'd guess that it's around 20% at LB, with 75% of his snaps at DE in a 4-man line and the rest at 3-4 DE, mostly when Ty Warren was injured at the end of the year and he wasn't a starter there. And they didn't keep him in for very long at all because he played pretty horribly, considerably worse than he did as an OLB where he at least offered a halfway decent pass rush. He is way too light to be a 3-4 DE on the regular at only 260 lbs.

I am basing all of this on memory alone right now, as I specifically kept an eye on him in many games, hoping he would develop into a solid LB as he gained more knowledge of the system. If I have the time and can find some more games online, I'll take a look and see if I can get a better impression of where he was playing throughout the year.

It is almost zero percent.
He played in sub packages almost exclusively.
He was the last man off the bench to play OLB in the base 3-4 so it may have been a dozen snaps or so.
Reiss catalogued every snap he played over the last 1/4 of the season in an article a couple of months ago that was posted here,
and the count was either zero or a few.
Again, if he played in the base, it would be OLB, but he is just not able to play that position effectively so he is the last man on the depth chart.
The "OLBs" become DEs in the sub package, so that is where the confusion exists. He is playing the role of an OLB by being a DE in sub.
There is no way he could play DE in the base, he is 40 lbs underweight.

 

[StraightCashHomey81]

Re: Olb

With the addition of Spikes and the return of McKenzie, Gary Guyton may move outside that might be his more natural position. He was the fastest LB in the 2008 draft and was a blitzing specialist in college.

Gary Guyton is not an option at 3-4 OLB. Remember, 3-4 OLBs are more like DEs than off the line LBs. At 6'1-6'2 240 lbs, Guyton is too short and light in the loafers to play 3-4 OLB (Remember when he had to play there in an emergency against Seattle in 08? He got mauled).

Guyton is however, a very good option at weakside OLB when the Pats employ 4-3, 3-3-5, and 4-2-5 sets, particularly on passing downs.

 

[TheComeback]

Re: Olb

as I mentioned, you don't know what you're talking about, so maybe you shouldn't comment.

this might be a life lesson for you.

Since you're so much more knowledgeable than me, why don't you enlighten me a little? I'm always happy to learn more about the game.

 

[cstjohn17]

Most here agree OLB is our weakest position. How about this for a solution.

Rumors are rampant on Steelers boards that the Steelers are willing to trade Lamarr Woodley straight up for Mankins. Woodley is only 25 years old and wants @ 10M/. He would be a huge upgrade and is a top 3 caliber OLB.

Any takers?

ProFootballFocus.com - By Position

I don't see any possibility of this happening for these reasons.
- Mankins is not under contract
- Steelers are not likely to be interested in spending big money on a guard, they are cheap
- the value of a pass rushing OLB is far greater than a guard, the Patriots would have to sweeten the pot


But even if there is a remote possibility, I will fly out to California and drive Mankins to Pittsburgh. I will even pay for gas.

Again, not possible but I like it.

 

[stinkypete]

First, I'm skeptical of any analysis that raves about Burgess "figuring it out" late in the season. The three teams that the Patriots finished against (Buffalo, Jax, Houston) all had offensive lines that near the bottom of the league in 2009. Burgess excelled against weaker competition.

Now regarding the OLB/DE argument...this is a situation in which it's more likely to be a 50/50 split of Burgess and Ninkovich, each has stuff they can do and stuff they can't do. The central issue surrounding the OLB situation, there isn't "that one guy" on the field every down. Vrabel was on the field every down. He could be rushing the passer, could be dropping into coverage, could be spying the QB or covering the run. An opposing QB had no clue which role Vrabel was going to play on any given down. This was a major schematic advantage.

The Patriots OLBs are too specialized. The presence of Tully Banta-Cain or Derek Burgess tips the hand of the defense, so to speak, as the team has it's "obvious" pass rushing players on the field. This is a major schematic disadvantage. Belichick may have the versatility on his roster to fill every role, but he needs a player who can fill every role to hide the intent of the defense.

Hopefully, Cunningham is an every down player in the making. I think adding that multi-tooled OLB to the scheme will work wonders for the defense.

 

[jmt57]

Richard Hill from Pats Pulpit takes a look at Derrick Burgess and his role with the Pats. He believes Burgess will be a contributing member of the defense until Cunningham is ready, and Burgess will be a solid defender.

Patriots Roster Prediction #38: DE/OLB Derrick Burgess - Pats Pulpit

About halfway through the season, Burgess finally got a hang of the defense and was able to apply consistent pressure in the backfield. In the final couple weeks of the season Burgess was able to be a solid contributor on the Patriots defense, which earned him a call back for another year.

Predicted Role: Look for more of the same from Burgess. With Adalius Thomas off the team, I believe the Patriots will employ more 3-4 looks with an elephant linebacker in order to have a player whose job is to solely get in the opposing backfield. If Burgess can continue the hot streak he ended 2009 with, the Patriots could have a formidable defense.