Discussion in 'Red Sox Fan Forum' started by Wildo7, Apr 3, 2008.
Fantasy owners you need to know, it's Johnny Cueto time on the wire.
He's on my team, anyone who looked at his K/BB last year shouldn't be surprised.
I use Yahoo and they just made him available on Tuesday, though I would have picked him up in the draft if I could have. He won't be available until Sunday but luckily I have 1st waiver priority.
Enjoy it now, because it's only a matter of time before Baker destroys the poor kids arm.
I've talked myself out of good players far too often. I'll worry about that down the road. He's 22 and had a combined (A, AA, AAA) 170/34 K/BB ratio last year. Basically identical to Bucholtz' 171/35 (amazing the similarity) but Cueto is a year and a half younger; and Bucholtz is universally considered a top ten prospect in baseball so Cueto should be too, IMO.
He's not universally a top 10 prospect because he's tiny. Pedro has a bigger frame than Cueto, and Pedro is an anomaly.
Thats not to say that Cueto can't be a successful starting pitcher, but many scouts question his ability to successfully transition from a 160IP milb season to a 200IP mlb season. His performance has certainly been great at every level, but the fact that he has such a small frame for a starter is a major cause for concern.
He's not tiny, he's short. There's plenty of thin, wiry pitchers out there like Pedro, Oswalt, Snell, others. He's generally listed around 190 which isn't tiny for a 5'10" player. Oswalt is 6'0", 185. Snell is 5'11", 190.
Regardless of how you want to define tiny, a small frame is a concern for any pitchers long term ability to pitch a full season. These aren't my concerns, they're the concerns of a lot of talent evaluators who have scouted him.
There are certainly exceptions like I suggested with Pedro (and you with others), but a pitcher with a small frame is less likely to be as durable as a pitcher with a larger frame.
I got him in my Yahoo league with the highest (worst) waiver priority.. Apparently the guys in my league aren't believers.. I would expect him to have some success first time through the league, but he'll probably level off after that. Tough to pass on him after his first outing..
I don't think we disagree, it's just a matter or degree. He's short, not tiny. He's got more of a concern over durability but not a major concern. IMO.
He won't do what he did last time out but, make no mistake, his stuff is for real. A few extra HR in Cincy, possibly some durability issues but his stuff is top notch.
Edinson Volquez is looking lights out right now too.
I picked him up, but how often do rookie pitchers have stand out seasons? Fantasy isn't about potential, or upside, it's strictly about numbers. Hope he's the real deal, but in looking at recent top prospects' first seasons, I wouldn't expect much.
Liking his 18/0 K/BB ratio after two games ?
I watched his game tonight, he throw 94-98 with a drop off the table slider in the high '80s and an improving slider. And plus control. He'll give up a few HR especially in Cincy but he's for real.
I can't remember the last time I saw a rookie with plus stuff, superb control and this kind of composure to get out of jams. The heart of Cincinnati's lineup is batting like .100 right now so when they heat up he can get the W's. The only things I don't like are the park and his mediocre curve. If he gets that working he's Pedro squared. Otherwise he pitches more like a wily vet than a rookie.
Oh, I don't doubt that he's for real. I'm just saying that it is difficult to expect high end fantasy stats from a rookie starter. Fantasy is strictly numbers oriented. Tim Lincecom, Phil Hughes, and Homer Bailey all had people, and subsequently fantasy owners, drooling at some point last year, and none panned out as high end fantasy pitchers. Dice-K is another one that comes to mind. Cueto could be the exception, but he'd have to stave off history to do so. I hope he does since I own him.
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