I wrote this in the other Steelers thread:
Pittsburgh's chances are a lot slimmer than I thought. They have basically no chance of getting in.
Check out rule #1 of the tiebreaker to understand why Pitt is sunk:
1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.
So, if Pitt and Baltimore are tied at 9-7, Baltimore advances to the wild-card tie-breaker with other 9-7 teams while Pitt is left behind. (Pitt and Baltimore will have split their season series, and Pitt's division record is 1-4 right now, so they lose the division tie-breaker to Baltimore each time).
Here is where things get tricky for Pittsburgh, and where Baltimore screws Pitt badly.
#2 tie-breaker is a head-to-head sweep
The head to head sweep is tossed out the window because no team has swept two of the possible contenders head to head.
#3 tie-breaker is conference record
Weirdly enough, most teams except finish with a 7-5 record in conference (Pitt and Tenn can't match that conference record, while Jax would be top of class at 8-4). So, you go to the next tie-breaker.
#4 is won-loss percentage against common opponents with a minimum of four.
This tie-breaker only came into play with Denver, and both teams finished 2-3 against Pitt, New England, San Diego and Indy.
So....
This is where Baltimore truly screws Pittsburgh up badly. In any wild-card tie-breaker, Baltimore represents the AFC North wild card candidates, and in any wild card scenario, the #5 strength-of-victory tie-breaker will determine the first wild-card spot. Baltimore loses each and every time against all teams. Their strength of victory record is 47-79. They beat a lot of bad teams.
So, whoever is locked with Baltimore in the wild-card tie-breaker gets in ahead of Baltimore (except for Tennessee, but Tennessee drops out early in wild card scenarios, they are as screwed as Pittsburgh).
So, after the first wild-card seed is determined, you start all over again, and guess what? Baltimore represents the AFC North again while Pittsburgh sits out. You go through the tie-breakers again, and Baltimore loses again!
For Pittsburgh to get in, Baltimore MUST lose to Oakland. Jax, Miami, the Jets an Houston all beat Balt (and therefore Pitt) if tied at 9-7. Denver is practically a shoe-in at this point. Baltimore has to win both of its last 2 games to get in. After Denver, Jacksonville has the best shot of getting in.
If Jax beats the Patriots on Sunday, they're in IMO.
Pitt is virtually eliminated unless Baltimore loses to Oakland.