OT: Chris Johnson signs 4/yr, $53.5mil extension!

[Deus Irae]

IMO there are 3 huge differences between Johnson's contract and Manning's. The first 2, of course are that Johnson wasn't a free agent, and doesn't play quarterback. The 3rd is that if the Colts hadn't given Manning those $$, a half dozen other teams would have gladly leapt in to offer just as much. But how many teams would really be vying to pay any RB $13.4 million/year?

That said, the BJGE comparison is pretty silly. Johnson has a career average of 5.0 ypc, and throw in an average of 20 yards a game receiving, too. Those aren't Green-Ellis numbers by any means. Those are Danny Woodhead-type numbers!

With pre-existing base salaries of $800,000 in 2011 and $960,000 in 2012, the total money over six years becomes $55.26 million. That’s an average of $9.21 million.

Old money, new money dynamics are critical to C.J. deal | ProFootballTalk

 

[ctpatsfan77]

According to Football Outsiders:

CJ2K, 2009: 358 carries, 2,006 yards, 14 TDs, 3 fumbles
BJGE, 2010: 229 carries, 1,008 yards, 13 TDs, 0 fumbles

CJ2K success rate: 45%
BJGE success rate: 57%

Put slightly differently: CJ2K had a lot of long runs, but was also a lot more likely to be stuffed for little/no gain or even a loss.

CJ2K VOA/DVOA: 13.8%/15.2%
BJGE VOA/DVOA: 21.3%/26.4%

In other words, on a play-by-play basis, BJGE was having more success running the ball than Chris Johnson was, AND doing it against better run defenses, too.

CJ2K DYAR: 322
BJGE DYAR: 354

In other words, adding up ALL their rushes for the year, BJGE, with 100 fewer carries, helped the Pats more than CJ2K did the Titans.

[That said, CJ2K also had more receptions, and his total-from-scrimmage DYAR is higher than BJGE's total, but not by much.]

 

[MassPats38]

Honestly, I don't hate this contract for the Titans as much a a lot of you seem to. Johnson is their offense. They're the anti-Patriots; to whatever extent they are able to pass, it is primarily because Johnson is a threat to take it to the house on every single down. The one year that the Titans had a remotely credible passing threat at QB, he went and got 2,000 yards. The guy is a freak.

Age-wise, he's going to turn 26 later this month, which means that he'll be 31 when this contract ends.

I agree from a value perspective. Johnson has been moving the ball during the last two years when every defense knows he is the primary threat. On a relatively bad team, he has still put up respectable numbers. Without him, the Titans go from mediocre to bad. If the Titans add other players and create a credible passing game, his numbers should improve and the rate of wear and tear on him should decrease. If the Titans fails to do so, he is their only hope and they cannot afford to let him go at any price.

If this summary is correct, this 4-year extension is added to the final two years of his current deal. The current deal, at best, would earn him $2.7 million per year. At the age of 26, the total deal would end in 2016, after which Johnson turns 32.

With $30 million up front, over a 6 year deal, that would mean possible cap hits of 2011: $7.7 million, 2012: $7.7 million, then $5 million per year over the last 4 years on top of the remaining $23.5 million salary ($10.9 average). As Johnson seemed more concerned about the $30 guaranteed, much of that $23.5 million could be assigned to the end of the deal and dumped if Johnson's ability falls off a cliff as is the case with many running backs, meaning the Titans would be on the hook for $5 million per year.

 

[patchick]

Old money, new money dynamics are critical to C.J. deal | ProFootballTalk

It's an extension, I understand that. The new money in this deal is huge, and that's the part they'd theoretically be competing with other teams on, no?

 

[Rob0729]

According to Football Outsiders:

CJ2K, 2009: 358 carries, 2,006 yards, 14 TDs, 3 fumbles
BJGE, 2010: 229 carries, 1,008 yards, 13 TDs, 0 fumbles

CJ2K success rate: 45%
BJGE success rate: 57%

Put slightly differently: CJ2K had a lot of long runs, but was also a lot more likely to be stuffed for little/no gain or even a loss.

CJ2K VOA/DVOA: 13.8%/15.2%
BJGE VOA/DVOA: 21.3%/26.4%

In other words, on a play-by-play basis, BJGE was having more success running the ball than Chris Johnson was, AND doing it against better run defenses, too.

CJ2K DYAR: 322
BJGE DYAR: 354

In other words, adding up ALL their rushes for the year, BJGE, with 100 fewer carries, helped the Pats more than CJ2K did the Titans.

[That said, CJ2K also had more receptions, and his total-from-scrimmage DYAR is higher than BJGE's total, but not by much.]

In fairness to Johnson, he is the Tom Brady of the Titans' offense. Teams gameplan to stop him and force the Titans to throw the ball. Teams gameplan to stop Brady and force BJGE to run the ball. That means that Johnson sees far more 8 and 9 men in the box than BJGE ever does.

Not taking anything away from BJGE, but this is why I hate stats sometimes.

 

[BradyFTW!]

According to Football Outsiders:

CJ2K, 2009: 358 carries, 2,006 yards, 14 TDs, 3 fumbles
BJGE, 2010: 229 carries, 1,008 yards, 13 TDs, 0 fumbles

CJ2K success rate: 45%
BJGE success rate: 57%

Put slightly differently: CJ2K had a lot of long runs, but was also a lot more likely to be stuffed for little/no gain or even a loss.

CJ2K VOA/DVOA: 13.8%/15.2%
BJGE VOA/DVOA: 21.3%/26.4%

In other words, on a play-by-play basis, BJGE was having more success running the ball than Chris Johnson was, AND doing it against better run defenses, too.

CJ2K DYAR: 322
BJGE DYAR: 354

In other words, adding up ALL their rushes for the year, BJGE, with 100 fewer carries, helped the Pats more than CJ2K did the Titans.

[That said, CJ2K also had more receptions, and his total-from-scrimmage DYAR is higher than BJGE's total, but not by much.]

That isn't what is being said. Johnson had Vince Young and Kerry Collins as his starting QBs. BJGE had Brady. Pretty much every team conceded the run to the Pats in a (usually fruitless) attempt to stop the pass. Teams did the exact opposite against the Titans. Where BJGE was running against a whole lot of nickel formations, Johnson was running against stacked boxes pretty much every time he got the ball. None of FO's metrics measure this.

Put BJGE in the Titans offense and see if he does a third as well as Johnson did (he wouldn't).

According to separate people on this board citing FO statistics, BJGE is better than Chris Johnson and Woodhead is better than Ray Rice. I really, really wish that was true. If you find a stat that says that Kevin Kolb is a better QB than Tom Brady, you can safely say that either a) you're misinterpreting what it says, or b) it's flat-out wrong. Same applies here; it's no coincidence that, since 2006 or so, something like 5 different Patriots running backs have finished at/near the top of the charts for success rate, DVOA, and DYAR, and it's not because they're all elite.

 

[BradyFTW!]

It's an extension, I understand that. The new money in this deal is huge, and that's the part they'd theoretically be competing with other teams on, no?

Not if you take into account the fact that CJ had already forfeit his year towards FA eligibility, and therefore had no further incentive to show up at any point this season. All he stood to miss out on was a few hundred thousand dollars, and he knew that he had a ton of leverage because he literally is the Titans' offense. They made that clear when they gave him 400+ touches in 2009. They already lost their head coach and starting QB; it's pretty much just Johnson.

With the Brady contract last year, a lot of people here insisted that the remaining year on his existing deal should be "rolled in" to the new deal to bring the AAV down for a more realistic perspective. A lot of people said the same about Mankins' new deal, about how it is more financially reasonable when you take into account the (half) season that he played under the RFA tender. This is like that, except Johnson actually had all the incentive in the world to not show up, period, without a new deal.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Not taking anything away from BJGE, but this is why I hate stats sometimes.

There's nothing wrong with the stat; it's just being misinterpreted to say something that it doesn't say. A lot of people on this board make the mistake of thinking that, because FO stats are advanced and fairly comprehensive, they tell an objective truth ("X" player is objectively better than "Y"). They don't say that, and they don't claim to. It's up to us to interpret stats correctly, in accordance with what they're intended to state. Until there is a stat to measure how much Tom Brady opens up the running game relative to, say, Vince Young, there won't be any real way to measure that concretely.

 

[Deus Irae]

It's an extension, I understand that. The new money in this deal is huge, and that's the part they'd theoretically be competing with other teams on, no?

I posted it because you were talking about it being for more than $13 million a year. Because it's attached as an extension, it's for less than $10 million a year. That's significant, which is why I posted the link.

That sort of gulf between appearance money and real money is one of the problems that was going on with the Mankins situation last year.

 

[JJDChE]

I was down on BJGE before last year, but he is not a scrub. I think he is better than you make him out to be. He isn't remotely in Johnson's class, but he was an above average RB in the league. He could possibly the best RB in this division.

Maybe scrub is a little strong. I like his attitude and the way he runs. I still think he's pretty much a dime a dozen. Most starting RBs in the NFL would do better than he did on the Patriots.

 

[Deus Irae]

There's nothing wrong with the stat; it's just being misinterpreted to say something that it doesn't say. A lot of people on this board make the mistake of thinking that, because FO stats are advanced and fairly comprehensive, they tell an objective truth ("X" player is objectively better than "Y"). They don't say that, and they don't claim to. It's up to us to interpret stats correctly, in accordance with what they're intended to state. Until there is a stat to measure how much Tom Brady opens up the running game relative to, say, Vince Young, there won't be any real way to measure that concretely.

While that's true, just imagining what Johnson could do in the Patriots offense is well worth the time spent doing so.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

There's nothing wrong with the stat; it's just being misinterpreted to say something that it doesn't say. A lot of people on this board make the mistake of thinking that, because FO stats are advanced and fairly comprehensive, they tell an objective truth ("X" player is objectively better than "Y"). They don't say that, and they don't claim to. It's up to us to interpret stats correctly, in accordance with what they're intended to state. Until there is a stat to measure how much Tom Brady opens up the running game relative to, say, Vince Young, there won't be any real way to measure that concretely.

I was responding to the rather absurd claim that CJ2K is "50x" the runner that BJGE is.

That said, the reason I'm saying that BJGE faced tougher defenses is the margin between VOA and DVOA—which is enormous compared to most RBs. [And, BTW, if it's merely that teams are allowing the run to prevent the pass, why is the adjustment to Woodhead's DVOA negative?]

 

[JackBauer]

I was responding to the rather absurd claim that CJ2K is "50x" the runner that BJGE is.

Well good thing you took the time to respond to some rather obvious (or so I thought?) hyperbole.

You're absolutely right, though. Johnson is more like 5x the runner BJGE is.

 

[TheSolderKing]

25 years old 26 mid next month

we have to figure he would be 32 at end of the deal. 6 years is far away.



6 yr 53 Million Extension 30 or 29 million guaranteed

For a team that has no Franchise QB CJ2K is the FACE of the FRANCHISE


I see nothing wrong w/ this move.

 

[Deus Irae]

I was responding to the rather absurd claim that CJ2K is "50x" the runner that BJGE is.

That said, the reason I'm saying that BJGE faced tougher defenses is the margin between VOA and DVOA—which is enormous compared to most RBs. [And, BTW, if it's merely that teams are allowing the run to prevent the pass, why is the adjustment to Woodhead's DVOA negative?]

The Patriots current model has been to use their running backs to maximize efficiency while taking pressure off of the passing game. The Titans use their running backs as their offense. That's a huge difference maker right there. As i noted in another thread, both Maroney and BJGE have been top 5 type runners in the DVOA/DYAR/Efficiency rankings. I'm nonetheless certain that BB would make Johnson his RB1 in a millisecond if he was available today for reasonable money.

 

[BradyFTW!]

I was responding to the rather absurd claim that CJ2K is "50x" the runner that BJGE is.

That said, the reason I'm saying that BJGE faced tougher defenses is the margin between VOA and DVOA—which is enormous compared to most RBs. [And, BTW, if it's merely that teams are allowing the run to prevent the pass, why is the adjustment to Woodhead's DVOA negative?]

The reason why is summed up pretty well here:

Of course, the biggest variable in football is the fact that each team plays a different schedule. By adjusting each play based on the defense's average success in stopping that type of play over the course of a season, we get DVOA, or Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. Rushing and passing plays are adjusted based on down and location on the field; receiving plays are also adjusted based on how the defense performs against passes to running backs, tight ends, and wide receivers. Defenses are adjusted based on the average success of the offenses they are facing. (Yes, this is still called DVOA, for the sake of simplicity.)

The defensive adjustment that turns VOA into DVOA adjusts the player's success in a given down/distance/play type situation versus the opposing defense's relative success in similar situations. Woodhead's DVOA was adjusted downward because he was putting up strong numbers in situations where his opponents typically surrendered strong numbers. BJGE's was adjusted because he was being used in situations where the opposing defenses typically had more success.

Defense adjustment does not, however, adjust for the defense's gameplan. A first-down run on the 40 yard line against the Dolphins counts the same, for DVOA's purpose, whether they're stacking the box or in nickel. That's why the best running backs out there typically have DVOAs that aren't anywhere near as good as the specialists'.

If Chris Johnson consistently ran against nickle and dime coverage like the Pats' RBs do, he'd probably set the all-time DVOA record.

 

[ausbacker]

I was responding to the rather absurd claim that CJ2K is "50x" the runner that BJGE is.

That said, the reason I'm saying that BJGE faced tougher defenses is the margin between VOA and DVOA—which is enormous compared to most RBs. [And, BTW, if it's merely that teams are allowing the run to prevent the pass, why is the adjustment to Woodhead's DVOA negative?]

If Chris Johnson is 50x the player the Law Firm is then I'm a bright pink bunny dancing to the Can-can.

CJ is a great player but BJGE is what the offense needs in our RB by committee system. Not to mention that he's great value for money and doesn't warp our cap structure.

If he was a first round pick people would be drooling over him. Perception is a wonderful thing.

 

[BradyFTW!]

CJ is a great player but BJGE is what the offense needs in our RB by committee system.

Leaving cost out of it for now, are you saying that BJGE does better in our system than Chris Johnson would? o_0

 

[ausbacker]

Leaving cost out of it for now, are you saying that BJGE does better in our system than Chris Johnson would? o_0

CJ isn't a bruising back in the mould of BJGE, Adrian Peterson, Frank Gore etc. Those types of runners would be better suited to the Patriots system I would have thought.

I have no doubt CJ would succeed in our system and acknowledge he's the superior footballer when compared to the Law Firm. So no, I won't be leaving cost out of the equation because it's a major and determining factor in the discussion.

 

[jah]

Great news for my fantasy team! I drafted him in the late first round last night knowing that it was a risk and he only fell into my hands because of the holdout.