OT: A Denver story with New England insight

[Box_O_Rocks]

Paige: McD wants defenses' hate - The Denver Post

Paige: McD wants defenses' hate
By Woody Paige
The Denver Post
Updated: 07/27/2009 01:24:38 AM MDT

"There are things we will do (offensively) that other teams have never done."

Josh McDaniels is not kidding, boasting, lying, hypothesizing.

The new head of state for the Broncos is issuing a forewarning, a challenge, a notification, a declaration he firmly believes, to supporters, skeptics, an interloper in his office and, most important, National Football League adversaries.

McDaniels is serious as a Gottfried von Leibniz calculus problem.

"The interesting thing is people talk about our offense and kind of stereotype it as this quote spread or shotgun offense, but . . . we definitely will find different ways to make defenses work to get ready for us. (Jacksonville coach) Jack Del Rio said it best two years ago. He said preparing for us (New England) was like preparing for six different offenses. We want to dictate to defenses."

To a visitor, McDaniels applies the word "we" to describe both the Patriots and the Broncos, which raises the question: "How much of this will be the Patriots' offense and your own offense?"

The answer is: "I will answer bluntly. I will do anything to help this team win. (Patriots coach Bill Belichick) never discouraged me from doing things I thought would be successful."

-----

"In New England we never asked Tom Brady to become an outside-the-pocket runner. We're not going to handicap him; we're going to help him. We want Kyle to be smart, be accurate and run our system."

 

[JSn]

Nice find. I think they're O is going to be better than most people think.

 

[Brady-To-Branch]

Orton isn't that bad. In fact, his numbers weren't that much worse than Cutler's. OTOH, when Cutler was in Denver, he played behind the best OL in the league and had a strong WR corps. Orton's OL in Chicago was terrible and he didn't have good WRs.

Orton is 21-12 as a starter.
Cutler's record is 17-20.

Orton in 2008:
TD% 3.9
INT%: 2.6

Cutler in 2008:
TD%: 4.1
INT%: 2.9

Looks like the Cutler apologists will be working overtime this season.

 

[Synovia]

Orton isn't that bad. In fact, his numbers weren't that much worse than Cutler's. OTOH, when Cutler was in Denver, he played behind the best OL in the league and had a strong WR corps. Orton's OL in Chicago was terrible and he didn't have good WRs.

Orton is 21-12 as a starter.
Cutler's record is 17-20.

Orton in 2008:
TD% 3.9
INT%: 2.6

Cutler in 2008:
TD%: 4.1
INT%: 2.9

Looks like the Cutler apologists will be working overtime this season.

Cutler DVOA : 22.7% - 5th in league
Orton DVOA: -.9% - 21st in league

I like Orton, and think he'll do fine, but the idea that they had similar years last year is absolute lunacy.

 

[Brady-To-Branch]

Cutler DVOA : 22.7% - 5th in league
Orton DVOA: -.9% - 21st in league

I like Orton, and think he'll do fine, but the idea that they had similar years last year is absolute lunacy.

I'm not a big fan of DVOA. It's too complex, involves too many useless factors like passing yards (which doesn't correlate to winning PCT) and strays away from INTs which is usually the difference between winning and losing.

To illustrate how inaccurate it is, compare the 2 QBs after the 2009 season. Ignoring the fact that Orton wins more games and make fewer mistakes than Cutler, while being surrounded by bad O-lines and mediocre receivers, is lunacy.

 

[BritPat]

You can't use stats and numbers to decide who was better than who.

Orton's a good player, but Cutler (whilst being a whiny punk) is on the verge of being an elite QB. The Bears receiving corps will be a big test for him though - can he do what Brady did and survive without any truly outstanding receivers?

 

[Brady-To-Branch]

You can't use stats and numbers to decide who was better than who.

Yes you can, provided they are the right numbers. There are stats that directly correlate with winning percentage.

Cold, Hard Football Facts.com: Quality Stats

Here one that measures team offensive efficiency.

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Articles/2_986_Scoreability_Index.html

Note that in 2008, the Bears were #1 in Yards Per Point Scored while the Denver ranked 28th.

Maybe the notion of similar seasons between the 2 QBs was lunacy after all?

 

[Synovia]

I'm not a big fan of DVOA. It's too complex, involves too many useless factors like passing yards (which doesn't correlate to winning PCT) and strays away from INTs which is usually the difference between winning and losing.

You clearly do not understand DVOA. It does not use passing yards, it uses first downs. It penalizes HEAVILY for ints.

To illustrate how inaccurate it is, compare the 2 QBs after the 2009 season. Ignoring the fact that Orton wins more games and make fewer mistakes than Cutler, while being surrounded by bad O-lines and mediocre receivers, is lunacy.

Orton "wins more games" because his defense isn't terrible, not because hes a better QB. Orton doesn't make less mistakes, he makes more, and makes them in situations that cost the team more. Thats what DVOA says.


Cutler threw a lot of picks because his team was always down a ton of points because his defense couldn't stop anyone. Its tough not throwing picks when you throw 45 times a game and 35 of those passes are into nickle and dime.

 

[Synovia]

Yes you can, provided they are the right numbers. There are stats that directly correlate with winning percentage.

Correlating with winning percentage doesn't mean they predict future performance, or are indicative of skill.


Teams that onside kick in the last 5 minutes of the game lose almost all the time, so the key is, when it gets to the end of the game, don't onside kick at any cost.

 

[Synovia]

Note that in 2008, the Bears were #1 in Yards Per Point Scored while the Denver ranked 28th.

Yards per point scored? What in the hell?

 

[farn]

I like Orton. I think they're better off with a player who has a winning record (Cutler did not), who is willing to follow the coaches' advice (Cutler, dunno), and be accurate, not a gunslinger.

Denver won't win the SB, but they'll exceed expectations if given the chance. Rocky start for McD though...

 

[Synovia]

and be accurate, not a gunslinger.

Cutler's career completion percentage is 7.5% higher than Orton's.

 

[Brady-To-Branch]

You clearly do not understand DVOA. It does not use passing yards, it uses first downs.

I stand corrected

It penalizes HEAVILY for ints.

Not heavily enough.

Orton "wins more games" because his defense isn't terrible, not because hes a better QB. Orton doesn't make less mistakes, he makes more, and makes them in situations that cost the team more. Thats what DVOA says.

The Bears were mediocre defensively in 2009. Moreover, being a team sport, the QB that makes less mistakes is the better QB.

Cutler threw a lot of picks because his team was always down a ton of points because his defense couldn't stop anyone. Its tough not throwing picks when you throw 45 times a game and 35 of those passes are into nickle and dime.

Blame the Defense. Sorry that doesn't excuse Cutler's brutal performance down the stretch. His INT in the Red Zone against Buffalo, alone, cost his team the division.

As I said, you'll see in 2009 what a superior QB Orton is to Cutler.

It's become the poor man's Peyton/Brady argument.

 

[Brady-To-Branch]

Cutler's career completion percentage is 7.5% higher than Orton's.

That is negated by his INT%.

 

[farn]

Cutler's career completion percentage is 7.5% higher than Orton's.

Touché. Nice one. Didn't realize. May I play the "Cutler's receivers made him better and Orton's receivers suck" card ? Or is that too lame ?

Either way, Orton won't be a malcontent. He'll be McD's "guy" (until Josh picks up the phone and it gets out) and he'll not "buck the system". We'll see. Glad NE has Brady instead of Cutler.

Edit : haha - while I was writing, B-t-B came to my rescue mentionning his INTs. Yea me.

 

[lurker1965]

Yards per point scored? What in the hell?

Easy to understand total yards divided by total points (or is it vice versa).

 

[Bartmac36]

Kyle will do just fine in Denver as long as Marshall stays there...I have faith they can be better than people expect, but I don't plan on them doing groundbreaking stuff on offense...

 

[nashvillepatsfan]

Paige: McD wants defenses' hate - The Denver Post

To a visitor, McDaniels applies the word "we" to describe both the Patriots and the Broncos, which raises the question: "How much of this will be the Patriots' offense and your own offense?"

The answer is: "I will answer bluntly. I will do anything to help this team win. (Patriots coach Bill Belichick) never discouraged me from doing things I thought would be successful."

ummm, does this imply that Josh had something to do with the teams success????? I know some people on here, that will not be happy to hear that

 

[Brady-To-Branch]

Easy to understand total yards divided by total points (or is it vice versa).

It measures efficiency.

Cold, Hard Football Facts.com: Final 2008 Scoreability Index

The 2008 Bears averaged a point for every 12.62 yards gained, which is best in the league. Denver ranked 28th. They led the league in total net yards but didn't have to points to show for it. That was primarily due to long drives killed by Cutler INTs.

McDaniels is cut from the same cloth as Parcells, BB, Mangini, Weis, etc. They don't want QBs who make bad decisions.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

It seemed to me that Cutler really struggles on the opponents side of the field. It like he wants to make the big play, even though it is clear that it won't work. Ball protection is teachable. Proper decision making is not so teachable.

I think whichever QB has the most pressure put on him by their respective team will perfrom the worst.