That's because Aaron Shchwartz doesn't want to accept that yard per point does a better job at predicting anything he and his website ever came up with. He doesn't understand yards per point, and he admittedly had no clue what it was until 2 years AFTER he invented his DVOA ratings.
Then he backtracked and made a very weak argument against yards per point, explaining it backwards from a logical standpoint to try to prove DVOA is a better measurement. He used funny numbers such as drive stats adjusted for average defenses(adjusted for strength of opponent) and compared it to RAW yards per point efficiency stats, unadjusted for strength of opponent.
Offensive efficiency, yards per point, still came out ahead as the best predictor of winning ahead of offensive VOA, and only DVOA came out ahead of NET yard per point(which is a terrible way of doing it anyway) but that's because NET yard per point, was not adjusted for strength of opponent.
Not an objective argument and comparison.
Having said that, yard per point remains true.
8-0 The team with the overall more efficient offense who wins the turnover battle wins. The team with the best ability to outscore wins. The reason some teams like the 49ers offense are surprising is because they don't display their ability to score every single game. Just when its necessary. The way to win the turnover battle isn't defense, it's still your offense. The best way to win the turnover battle is to not throw an interception and face a team that does turn over the ball. Let them try to force a fumble, but don't
give them away the ball.
And by efficiency standards:
SF's offense is #2 and their defense is #1
Pat's offense is #3 and Pats defense is #2.
The Patriots have a more efficient defense than they do an offense. The Patriots have the better defense than they do offense as of right now. As shocking as it might be to some people, it's just a fact.
To me seeing the Pats defense do what it did is not a surprise. The defense that spends the MOST time on the football field, that gives up the MOST yards, the LONGEST drives and yet FEWEST points is the best defense.
It goes against everything that ESPN, traditional stats and conventional wisdom says and conventional wisdom is simply wrong.
The best defense is NOT the one that gets off the field. It's the one that stays on the field, wants to be on the field, loves to hit and doesn't allow points. And that's the Patriots defense. Coach Bellichick knows this. The Patriots do have the ability to win the time of possession but they never do. Bottom of the league. They can easily take their time and score slow if they want to, but they do not.
What you want as a good defense, if you really want a good defense isn't a 3 and out:
-you want a physically tough defense with the longer endurance
-you want a physical defense who WANTS to be on the field physically beating up your opponent's offense for the longest of time while not allowing points and forcing fumbles
-the phrase "wearing down a defense" used to make sense when defensive players were big fat guys that were not in shape. Not anymore.
-you want those offenses on there so you can beat up on them for 60 yards and then keep them from scoring. It's what makes an offense inefficient and the most deflating thing possible.
-and with the #2 special teams defense you can do that, because opponent offenses start further back, and chances are good, you will get a stop before they make the endzone.
Did anybody see Tim Tebow's face after the game? That's what happens after you face a GOOD defense. The 49ers are not tested. They get 3 and outs, but they won't be able to against the Pats. They have not gone the distance and they showed weakness against the Saints. What you want is to break down their offense because usually the last one to score wins. So you want to have the sharpest, and healthiest offense, ready to go in the 4th quarter running that 2 minute drill.
And for the other 58 minutes you want your offense to score quickly and your defense out there to beat up on much smaller guys. The cool thing is NE's offense also have big physical guys. So they beat you up from both sides.
