On Paper The Jets Should Win This Game. On The Field It's Another Story.

[JSn]

Honestly, they have a ton of healthy (as far as we know) weapons, momentum, luck and swagger. Don't kid yourself, that counts for a lot. But we also know it's not too hard to get into Favre or Mangini's head.

Momentum may not help them much as they're coming to our house and they're a team we hate more than even the Giants. We'll watch this game as part sporting-contest and part freak-show.

Swagger is as likely to be a chink in the armour as an assist in getting the win (see SB42). It may help playing against undisciplined teams, but that's not the case this week.

Health is in their favour, but I absolutely will not rule out Woods stepping it up at OLB. Not after what I've seen in the games so far this season.

And sometimes they get lucky. But I suspect we all know how luck works on our side of the Ball. Bill has one thing in common with Harvey Dent...

(as two-face he reminds me of a slender, more handsome Eric Mangini)

Check out this tidbit from a man who knows, Michael Lombardi:

Dan Henning, the offensive coordinator of the Dolphins, once told me, “If you don’t have tendencies on offense, you are not any good.” And Dan is right. That’s what drives me crazy when I see the huge color-coded play lists like the one Brad Childress carries around, and then watch his team not be able to execute ten pass plays. When I was with Bill Belichick in Cleveland, he would sit down on Monday with both coordinators and go over the call sheet of the game, matching up how many times during the week we worked on the play called. He wanted to use different formations and different looks, but run the same plays. And that is the true essences of keeping it simple. It comes down to execution and fundamentals, which is why the Patriots have improved so much since week one of the season.

Maybe it's always been simple. We see them run similar plays numerous times and wonder how they don't get stopped. Different looks is how. In his press conference after the game, Trent Edwards said:

We need to give a lot of credit to that defense, they are obviously very talented, very skilled. They play hard, they play fast, and they show a lot of different looks. For me, on a few plays here and there, it is confusing to know what their coverages are, what their fronts are, and they do a great job of disguising that. That is what they are good at, and they continued to do that today against us.

On offense and defense, we have plays that our players, from UDFA's to Elite Veterans, can execute to near perfection from numerous formations and personnel groupings. Losses to the team should affect this, but it is becoming more and more apparent that every guy on this team is ready for just about any situation. I addressed this in my fantastic, but unheralded rant "Of Limos and Lunchpails".

The Jets have the personnel advantage to win this game, no doubt about it. Losing to us would hurt twice as bad because of of that.

The real question is this: Can the Jets play a full 60 minutes of intellectual, fundamentally sound, situational football? When I look at that aspect of the competition, I can't help but think that "on paper" is just about the only way the Jets can win this game.

[/end time-killing prognosticatorial homily]

 

[JSn]

Thank you Mr. OneStar, whoever you are. I knew I could count on you.

 

[SVN]

it comes down to the jets defense which worries me. asmuch as we hate mangini -he did have good game plans defensively last two times he played here in the reg season and managed to confuse brady too a little.now they have a lot better defensive players. pats better protect against the blitz.

 

[checkedout]

On what paper? According to Vegas Odds | VEGAS.com our Pats are the favorite.

 

[Peekaboo]

The Jests pass rush is going to be hard to control. Also, their run defense is stellar.

 

[drew4008]

I agree... I wouldn't be surprised at all if we lose, injuries have completely decimated us, it's just insane.

 

[JSn]

NFL Video Galleries

Here's the official preview video. Nice design, as always.

 

[BionicPatriot]

Their pass rushing got better, so did our line. I don't see a huge advantage anywhere there.

This is going to be Cassel's biggest game IMO. Gone thursday night will be the running game. Our center is too soft against guys like Jenkins. I think Cassel is going to have to open the running game up a bit and make the Jets respect it. I see the game going either way. The Jets need it as much as us, we need it as bad as they do. We can't afford two losses in our own division, not this year. The only game I'd prefer losing would be the Buffalo game, not any of these 2. Buffalo is fading and they're both coming on.

On defense we're going to have to make Favre beat us. Yes he can, but he can just as likely give it to us. Remember, a bad Favre pass turned into the go ahead touchdown last time. IMO, I don't see how this team would beat them in week 2 and not now. It's a lot easier for them in terms of where they're at as a team than it was then.

 

[BionicPatriot]

NFL Video Galleries

Here's the official preview video. Nice design, as always.

That just gets me pumped

 

[billdog3484]

why should the jets win on paper. we still have a great OLine and DLine, great WRs. maybe their QB is better, maybe. maybe their LBs are better. Maybe they have better DB's. But im not certain about that. It's close.

 

[MassPats38]

I don't give the Jets that much credit. The Rams were inept in that game (3 interceptions, 2 lost fumbles, 1 defensive TD), so bad they pulled Bulger at half for Trent Green. That may have been a result of the Jets stifling defense, but it may also be the fruits of playing a 2-6 team that is pretty much out of playoff contention and just looking not to take serious damage.

Before the Rams, the Jets beat the Bills 26-17, lost to Chokeland and beat the Chiefs 28-24. They had to put up 56 points to beat the Cardinals in a game with 4 lost fumbles and 3 turnovers that was clearly Warner's off day (yes, I did watch some of that game), not a product of defensive ball-hawking. That was the Cardinals' equivalent of the Pats' game against Miami. That means the Jets have made one strong showing in 4 games, and you will note that showing was against a team that was trending upward until Bulger got smacked around by the Pats and then returned to its losing ways.

As for the Patriots, there may be some point at which injuries are not recoverable, but the Thomas injury cannot be considered the worst shot to the team this season. With all these injuries, the Pats still beat the Jets at their house. Vegas still favors the Pats, and some of these considerations may be the reason why.

 

[captadamnj]

Momentum over the teams the Jests have played recently is about as good as a paper ball sliding down a pane of glass on a windless day. Sure, it's headed for the bottom, but one slight puff of resistance and it's off the edge.

 

[dhamz]

Honestly, they have a ton of healthy (as far as we know) weapons, momentum, luck and swagger.

Yeah, we should be really worried about their swagger.

What is it BB said about it? "You can take that swagger and shove it up your ass"

 

[Gunnails]

Jets will shut down the run, Pats will have less then 60 yards total rushing.

Jets will put pressure on Cassel, they are having great results at getting to the QB.

Jets will run a ball control short pass heavy on the run game offense, expect to see Leon Washington get 15 snaps.

Jets are still vulnerble to the screen pass, and short over the middle routes from TE's and WR's.
Cassel needs to get rid of the ball quick.

Faulk and Welker will be the Pats best options.

 

[desi-patsfan]

ball control short pass doesnt really fit Lord Favre. I think it will be the exact opposite, lost of bombs deep to take advantage of inexperienced secondary.

 

[Rob0729]

Jets will shut down the run, Pats will have less then 60 yards total rushing.

Jets will put pressure on Cassel, they are having great results at getting to the QB.

Jets will run a ball control short pass heavy on the run game offense, expect to see Leon Washington get 15 snaps.

Jets are still vulnerble to the screen pass, and short over the middle routes from TE's and WR's.
Cassel needs to get rid of the ball quick.

Faulk and Welker will be the Pats best options.

The Pats are the best run offense the Jets have faced all season. I wouldn't bet on the Pats getting less than 60 yards on the ground. The Rams without Stephen Jackson got over 60 yards against the Jets. The Chiefs with Jamaal Charles as their lead RB got over 60. The Raiders got 153 yards on the ground vs. the Jets. The Pats have the seventh ranked running attack which is higher than any of those teams. I think you should consider revising some of that estimate.

 

[Rob0729]

ball control short pass doesnt really fit Lord Favre. I think it will be the exact opposite, lost of bombs deep to take advantage of inexperienced secondary.

He does that and I think he turns the ball over two or more times. Even the Rams could have had two INTs against him this past Sunday if they held onto the ball and Favre only passed for a little over 160 yards. I think the Jets know that putting the game in Favre's hands against a good team is a recipite for disaster.

 

[Gunnails]

The Pats are the best run offense the Jets have faced all season. I wouldn't bet on the Pats getting less than 60 yards on the ground. The Rams without Stephen Jackson got over 60 yards against the Jets. The Chiefs with Jamaal Charles as their lead RB got over 60. The Raiders got 153 yards on the ground vs. the Jets. The Pats have the seventh ranked running attack which is higher than any of those teams. I think you should consider revising some of that estimate.

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Very good points.
Pats the #7 ranked rush O against the #4 rush D.

Maybe I should edit my post to less then 100 yards,,,,,nah.

 

[Gunnails]

he does that and i think he turns the ball over two or more times. Even the rams could have had two ints against him this past sunday if they held onto the ball and favre only passed for a little over 160 yards. I think the jets know that putting the game in favre's hands against a good team is a recipite for disaster.

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+1

 

[bakes781]

I expect the Pats to showcase Matt Cassel's arm strength early in this game by going deep to Randy Moss. Getting a lead early is imperative against Favre. Force him to make mistakes & he'll make them.