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Old but interesting article


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FlyingElvis75

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Basically a look at increasing empirical analysis in football, from three years ago:

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/12/12/magazine/12SABER.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

It mentions that Belichick was an economics major at Wesleyan, and goes on to talk about how some of his "unorthodox" playcalling can be attributed to his familiarity with some of the academic literature on the subject.

Romer's paper, ''It's Fourth Down and What Does the Bellman Equation Say? A Dynamic Programming Analysis of Football Strategy,'' is far from light reading, so it came as a shock to Romer when he learned that Belichick, who was an economics major at Wesleyan University, had read it.

Yet this is not the only example of the Patriots' willingness to turn to the academic world for guidance. A few years ago, Ernie Adams, the Patriots' football research director, asked Harold Sackrowitz, a Rutgers statistician, to give his opinion regarding the team's two-point conversion strategies. Sackrowitz concluded that the strategy was less than optimal -- and the Patriots subsequently did not try any two-point conversions in the 2003-2004 season.

Belichick also sticks to running the ball on third down in short-yardage situations, while other coaches pass reasonably often to try to surprise the defense. According to Aaron Schatz, founder of the sabermetrics-inspired Web site FootballOutsiders.com, Belichick's strategy, though predictable, is well warranted by a careful analysis of the risks and rewards involved in using it.

(Found this on the Jets forum, of all places)

Obviously there's a lot more to coaching than playcalling, but it's nice to think that Belichick and his staff seem to buy into the idea that hard data trumps intuition. Intuition might win once in a while out of sheer luck, but empirical analysis always wins in the long run...
 
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