Non-OPEC oil supply to fall further, faster Non-OPEC oil supply to fall further, faster | Reuters Wed Apr 1, 2009 6:11pm BST By Joshua Schneyer and David Sheppard - Analysis NEW YORK/LONDON (Reuters) - A plunge in oilfield spending means non-OPEC oil output could soon fall, raising prices and potentially derailing any global economic recovery. A growing number of forecasts predicting a fall reflect a major drop in oil drilling because of lower crude prices and tighter credit, and defy an earlier market consensus that non-OPEC output would rise through the economic downturn. Global oilfield spending will probably fall 30 percent this year, cutting non-OPEC supply by 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd) by the end of 2010, and pushing oil prices up another 60 percent, Sanford Bernstein forecast. Barclays Capital saw a potential drop of 1.5 million bpd, or 3 percent of non-OPEC supply, and a 70 percent price rise from current levels to $85/bbl in 2010. Deutsche Bank saw a 280,000 bpd decline this year. Some of these analysts were among the most bullish on oil prices, but they expected a new reality of falling oil output will soon be recognized more widely. The International Energy Agency, the U.S. Department of Energy and OPEC still see non-OPEC output firm or rising. But they have already cut supply forecasts sharply, and may do so again. "We're looking at a decline. There is often a lag before the data catches up with reality," said Benjamin Dell, senior analyst at Sanford Bernstein in New York. "Lower oil prices could lead to lots of marginal fields being shut in the U.S., the UK, Norway and Russia." Now, what do you see here? Further evidence that the IAEA, the Dept. of Energy and OPEC are still doing their very best to allay Peak Oil realities. This, despite all signs throughout the world pointing to energy depletion, and the economic collapse that preceeds it. The depth of these bodies is stunningly cynical. They must think the average westerner is pretty stupid. How much longer can the 'nothing to see here' contingent continue to hold out? How long can they keep ignoring Occum's Razor and compound the global problem by advocating and directing desperately needed remaining funding away from alternate energies and preparedness? Ah well. Back to blaming some bad housing loans, the credit crash and the CRA for all that ails the world. We've ignored climate science and global geology for decades. Why stop now?