Ohrnberger: A Tale of Draft Perspective

[Armchair Quarterback]

The intent of the post was in its title: perspective. That the vast majority of players taken at that point in the draft make no significant impact. Clearly, in the future I should lead with a thesis statement, like middle school teachers always tell you.

Even given that I overlooked a couple of players, it's still the case that 90%+ of the o-linemen drafted in rounds 4-7 have done little. I'd suspect that percentage holds across all positions -- if anybody has the patience to do the math, I'd love to see it.

But honestly, I'm still kind of surprised that my OP which led with...



...and said NOT ONE SINGLE POSITIVE WORD ABOUT OHRNBERGER lead people to conclude that I thought Ohrnberger was a way awesome pick. Oh well.

And this was the one comment that mentioned Ohrnberger and "good" in the same sentance.

"Ohrnberger doesn't suddenly turn into a good pick because other OL picked in that draft haven't worked out."

Ohrnberger was taken in the 4th round, why should he be compared to players taken in the 5th, 6th and 7th round. Is that perspective or is that a way of justifying a poor choice. I don't care about the percentages , I want a fourth rounder to compete for a starting job, provide quality depth or at the very least make an impact on Special Teams. If he can't do any of those, than it was a failed pick. That's my perspective.

 

[jeffbiologist]

Cannon also isn't your normal 5th round pick. He's late-1st, early-2nd value if he ever gets on the field at 100% strength for the Pats.

He is a 5th round value because he was picked in the 5th round. MAYBE if the tide was high, he wasnt ill and all the teams that needed a G fought over him MAYBE he would have gone higher but the FACT is that he didnt. His "value" will always be 5th round, only his play on the field can tell us if that was a good value. To further argue what a talking head said one April is now completely useless.

 

[Sciz]

He is a 5th round value because he was picked in the 5th round. MAYBE if the tide was high, he wasnt ill and all the teams that needed a G fought over him MAYBE he would have gone higher but the FACT is that he didnt. His "value" will always be 5th round, only his play on the field can tell us if that was a good value. To further argue what a talking head said one April is now completely useless.

You either completely missed or completely ignored the qualifier in my post.

 

[Richard Camembert]

I call this tool the Sliding Impact Scale Of Death (SISOD), it rates the potential of a player making an impact on an NFL roster by round drafted. I will work to quantify it but essentially it proves that draft picks are overrated.

Impacting and NFL Roster = making team and making some sort of contribution

Round 1 - 70% chance of impacting an NFL roster
Round 2 - 50% chance of impacting an NFL roster
Round 3 - 35% chance of impacting an NFL roster
Round 4 - 20% chance of impacting an NFL roster
Round 5 - 15% chance of impacting an NFL roster
Round 6 - 10% chance of impacting an NFL roster
Round 7 and UDFAs - 5% chance of impacting an NFL roster

There are spectacular exceptions (Brady, Welker, etc.) but most draft picks wash out and never have any impact.

With this lense Ohrnberger has done ok, IMO he is a JAG that could be replaced by 50 other similar players but as a 4th rounder that is what I would expect.

This has already been done, there's a site which breaks down the careers of ALL draft picks to create what's purported to be a predictive value for the career of each draft pick...there's even a thread on it which I'm too lazy to look up

 

[captain stone]

I've brought up Ohrny more than once on this board. To me it was a very strange transaction from the beginning because of the multitude of moves that they parlayed to get him. We're they right against the cap in 09? I think we could have kept Hobbs considering the turnover we have had at that position since then. Hobbs for a 5th, adding our 5th to get up to the 4th to get Ohrny?? Sounds like the JEST doesnt it?? Targetting ONE player and making multiple moves to get him?? To me its because of the moves that I have expectations not at the spot he was drafted. But this only leads me to laugh further at the lemmings who think that Cannon can step in and do ANYTHING on this team. 5th round picks rarely make this team never mind DO anything, right? Mesko aside, isnt Koppen the last 5th rounder to do anything?? If someone mentions Slater after me on this thread beware....

To be fair, Bill acquired 2 5th-rounders from Philly for Hobbs, then traded those 2 5ths to Baltimore
(Ozzie Newsome OWNS Bill on Draft Weekend, BTW) for their 4th- & 6th-rounders.
Bill didn't have his own 5th because of that ******ed trade w/ Philly for Greg Lewis.

 

[jeffbiologist]

To be fair, Bill acquired 2 5th-rounders from Philly for Hobbs, then traded those 2 5ths to Baltimore
(Ozzie Newsome OWNS Bill on Draft Weekend, BTW) for their 4th- & 6th-rounders.
Bill didn't have his own 5th because of that ******ed trade w/ Philly for Greg Lewis.

Good call, my bad. But it also notes yet another extra step taken to get Ohrny. It sounds like they liked him, targeted him specifically and traded away a 3rd rd pick(Hobbs) to insure his services.

 

[SunnyDenmark]

Going back to the original theme – what do you expect from a X round draftee? (As an example the player chosen was Ohrnberger but could as easily been any career backup such as Mattew Slater, Matt Chatam, Russ Hockstein, etc.

I find roster building which I find the most facinating part of NFL. Thank goodness for salary cap and new CBA which doesn’t allow for NY Yankees approach of buying all-stars at virtually all positions. Which is why IMHO – NFL is the best major sport in the world at the moment. Competitive balance is alive and well in the new CBA – even moreso than the last one as now all teams must spend to a floor with actual cash outlay instead of just easily manipulated accounting minimum Cap floor numbers.

So back to the question – how do you build a team with a limited cap ceiling? (Tangent -Hopefully P. Manning will extort Irsay and Dolts will spend a huge amount of their cap on one player with declining skills over next few years.)

Bottom line in my book is that you NEED players like Ohrnberger on the team. For a 4th round player if he can stick for a few seasons and provide A) depth, B) fill in for a few games due to injury of starter C) cheap draft salary for hopefully all of rookie 4 year contract D) practice fodder.

In a realistic world maybe only15- 20 % of these become everyday NFL calibre starters . Maybe 5% become Pro-bowlers. But for me as Ohrnberger has stayed in the league and not washed out then he is a ‘hit’ for a 4th rounder pick. Not a trifecta type (TFB) mega-jackpot win ‘hit’ –but for a 4th rounder he does what you resonably expect for that draft slot and at a very resonable salary. Every team has a place for cheap players who are pratice foder, special teamers, injury depth 2-3 games for healing starters, 2nd and 3rd stringers.

If you DON’T get those type of payers with your 4th-6th round picks – then the team will be constantly turning over the bottom ¼ of the roster looking for street FA and other teams castoffs. And those ‘off the street’ players will be game day liabilities (if they even make the 46 player game day roster) as they won’t know your teams playbook / system very well. Those street FA will most likely be on the street again soon the next season when your starter is back from IR. It is good to have some continuity on your team with 2nd-3rd stringer players on your team for several years on a rookie contract. Good for practices, good for locker room friendships / chemistry, good for the coaches as well.

Sure I would love every 4th rounder to become the next Asante Samuel – it just isn’t very realistic.

P.S. And I don't believe you would have good locker room chemistry if you had 53 players all of at least NFL starting grade calibre talent. People like to fantisize of a Madden type roster - but can you imagine the bedlam of having a receiver corps of : Randy Moss, TO, Ocho, Brandon Marshall, and Dez Bryant? A team roster is like a good life - you need balance. You need ying & yang. Young and old, up & coming and declining skills, some NFL all-stars, some dependable starters as well as some career backups.

 

[Armchair Quarterback]

Going back to the original theme – what do you expect from a X round draftee? (As an example the player chosen was Ohrnberger but could as easily been any career backup such as Mattew Slater, Matt Chatam, Russ Hockstein, etc.

I find roster building which I find the most facinating part of NFL. Thank goodness for salary cap and new CBA which doesn’t allow for NY Yankees approach of buying all-stars at virtually all positions. Which is why IMHO – NFL is the best major sport in the world at the moment. Competitive balance is alive and well in the new CBA – even moreso than the last one as now all teams must spend to a floor with actual cash outlay instead of just easily manipulated accounting minimum Cap floor numbers.

So back to the question – how do you build a team with a limited cap ceiling? (Tangent -Hopefully P. Manning will extort Irsay and Dolts will spend a huge amount of their cap on one player with declining skills over next few years.)

Bottom line in my book is that you NEED players like Ohrnberger on the team. For a 4th round player if he can stick for a few seasons and provide A) depth, B) fill in for a few games due to injury of starter C) cheap draft salary for hopefully all of rookie 4 year contract D) practice fodder.

In a realistic world maybe only15- 20 % of these become everyday NFL calibre starters . Maybe 5% become Pro-bowlers. But for me as Ohrnberger has stayed in the league and not washed out then he is a ‘hit’ for a 4th rounder pick. Not a trifecta type (TFB) mega-jackpot win ‘hit’ –but for a 4th rounder he does what you resonably expect for that draft slot and at a very resonable salary. Every team has a place for cheap players who are pratice foder, special teamers, injury depth 2-3 games for healing starters, 2nd and 3rd stringers.

If you DON’T get those type of payers with your 4th-6th round picks – then the team will be constantly turning over the bottom ¼ of the roster looking for street FA and other teams castoffs. And those ‘off the street’ players will be game day liabilities (if they even make the 46 player game day roster) as they won’t know your teams playbook / system very well. Those street FA will most likely be on the street again soon the next season when your starter is back from IR. It is good to have some continuity on your team with 2nd-3rd stringer players on your team for several years on a rookie contract. Good for practices, good for locker room friendships / chemistry, good for the coaches as well.

Sure I would love every 4th rounder to become the next Asante Samuel – it just isn’t very realistic.

P.S. And I don't believe you would have good locker room chemistry if you had 53 players all of at least NFL starting grade calibre talent. People like to fantisize of a Madden type roster - but can you imagine the bedlam of having a receiver corps of : Randy Moss, TO, Ocho, Brandon Marshall, and Dez Bryant? A team roster is like a good life - you need balance. You need ying & yang. Young and old, up & coming and declining skills, some NFL all-stars, some dependable starters as well as some career backups.

Actually you do want as many starting caliber talent players as possible, it's called quality depth and it's how the Patriots build their team. Ohrnberger's career so far has resembled that of a fringe NFL player, I would hope that the bar is set a little higher for a fourth rounder than simply still being on the team. The Patriots released him before his second season and no other team wanted him. He also received a $450,000 signing bonus so I don't know if his contract still qualifies as cheap.

He has a long way to go before he is on the level of Hochstein, Chatham or even Slater and that's not saying much. Hochstein was in fact quality depth not just a warm body at the end of the roster, Also both Hochstein and Chatham were street free agents, not a fourth rounders. Chatham and Slater both contributed to special teams. Ohrnberger was on the active roster for only two games in 2010 and that was only because of injuries to Neal and Kaczur and Mankins' holdout. Ohrnberger has done nothing so far to justify his draft status IMO.

And the problem with having Moss, TO, Ocho, Marshall and Bryant on the same team wouldn't be too much talent, it would be the fact that they're an ungodly collection of idiot egomaniac aholes.

 

[Off The Grid]

(Ozzie Newsome OWNS Bill on Draft Weekend, BTW)

Kyle Boller for Vince Wilfork + 90% of Eugene Wilson??

The Evil That Bill Does

Yeah, they sure hosed us on THAT one!!

 

[patsinthesnow]

Kyle Boller for Vince Wilfork + 90% of Eugene Wilson??

The Evil That Bill Does

Yeah, they sure hosed us on THAT one!!

Don't forget our rookie TEs to their rookie TEs.

 

[Metaphors]

I don't care about the percentages , I want a fourth rounder to compete for a starting job, provide quality depth or at the very least make an impact on Special Teams. If he can't do any of those, than it was a failed pick. That's my perspective.

Then you think Ohrnberger is a success. I'm pretty sure he has been competing for a starting job the last couple of years. He just couldn't beat out Connolly. Considering how well Connolly played, that isn't a tragedy.

Also consider that Ohrnberger is 25 years old and in his 3rd year. Neal didn't get meaningful snaps until his 4th year when he was 27. Connolly didn't get meaningful snaps until his 4th year when he was 27. Hochstein didn't get meaningful snaps until his 4th year when he was 26.

The Pats have show a proclivity for taking projects (Neal, Maneri and now Yeatman) and overachievers and seeing if Dante can turn them into contributors. That takes patience and a longer-term perspective. Doesn't guarantee success but even hitting on a low percentage of guys gives the Pats significant bang for the buck. Seems like a better approach than giving a guy 1 or 2 seasons before tossing him into the JAG bin and looking for a replacement.

 

[SanAngeloState]

problem with ohrnberger's pick is that he wasn't that good in college. He was a small, nifty little guy. BB bonded with him over the fact that he played Lacrosse...also Pioli said that "he's the guy I would want in a street fight with me" or something like that. Why trade up for a guy who was most likely going to be an udfa? Didn't make sense to me. They seem to have a lot of picks they are really hot for and trade up for and it usually doesn't work...jackson, bethel johnson, ohrnberger.

It does surprise me that almost no one picked after him has done anything a an OL. I thought you could take later round guys and make decent guards out of them...there should be 20 or 30 OL coming into the league every year somehow to replace the older players retiring.

 

[Shelterdog]

I call this tool the Sliding Impact Scale Of Death (SISOD), it rates the potential of a player making an impact on an NFL roster by round drafted. I will work to quantify it but essentially it proves that draft picks are overrated.

Impacting and NFL Roster = making team and making some sort of contribution

Round 1 - 70% chance of impacting an NFL roster
Round 2 - 50% chance of impacting an NFL roster
Round 3 - 35% chance of impacting an NFL roster
Round 4 - 20% chance of impacting an NFL roster
Round 5 - 15% chance of impacting an NFL roster
Round 6 - 10% chance of impacting an NFL roster
Round 7 and UDFAs - 5% chance of impacting an NFL roster

There are spectacular exceptions (Brady, Welker, etc.) but most draft picks wash out and never have any impact.

With this lense Ohrnberger has done ok, IMO he is a JAG that could be replaced by 50 other similar players but as a 4th rounder that is what I would expect.

Casserly has a study that has very similar results; defining success as becoming an NFL starter for the drafting team within four years of being drafted he found that first-round draft picks have a 75% chance of success. Second-rounders, 50%. Third-rounders, 30%. Fourth-rounders, 25%. Fifth-rounders, 20%. Sixth-rounders and seenth rounders were both about 10%.

Casserly, Billick Talk NFL Draft


You do expect a little more from players picked at less valuable positions (if a fourth round OLB gets cut, oh well, but a fourth round guard or a sixth round long snapper probably should hold roster sports for three or four years) but roughly speaking a fourth rounder who doesn't every become a starter isn't an obvious bust.

 

[Armchair Quarterback]

Then you think Ohrnberger is a success. I'm pretty sure he has been competing for a starting job the last couple of years. He just couldn't beat out Connolly. Considering how well Connolly played, that isn't a tragedy.

Also consider that Ohrnberger is 25 years old and in his 3rd year. Neal didn't get meaningful snaps until his 4th year when he was 27. Connolly didn't get meaningful snaps until his 4th year when he was 27. Hochstein didn't get meaningful snaps until his 4th year when he was 26.

The Pats have show a proclivity for taking projects (Neal, Maneri and now Yeatman) and overachievers and seeing if Dante can turn them into contributors. That takes patience and a longer-term perspective. Doesn't guarantee success but even hitting on a low percentage of guys gives the Pats significant bang for the buck. Seems like a better approach than giving a guy 1 or 2 seasons before tossing him into the JAG bin and looking for a replacement.

I wouldn't call being 7th on the depth chart pushing for a starting job or quality depth. I wouldn't call getting released pushing for a starting job.

Here are some more fun facts:

Neal didn't play college football, Neal was not drafted
Hochstein was a street free agent
Connolly was a street free agent
Maneri was claimed on waivers
Yeatman is an undrafted free agent


What do they all have in common? That's right. They were not 4th round draft picks, in fact none of them were drafted by the Patriots at all. Neal by the way, had in fact earned a starting position in his second year. He happened to get hurt in that game against GB, missing the rest of the season as well as the next.

If you want to use Neal, Maneri or Yeatman as examples, they are the exact opposite of what Ohrnberger is. All three have the physical prototype and athleticism which make them low risk high reward type players, especially considering they cost nothing to acquire. Ohrnberger did in fact come with a cost, a 4th round pick, did not have anywhere close to ideal measurables and has done very little up to this point to justify his selection.

Maybe he will turn it around this year and prove me wrong, if he does, great, more power to him and the team. I just don't think end of the roster, fringe type players are what's ideally hoped for for 4th rounders and if you ask my opinion he has not been a good pick up to this point, no matter what the Patfans thought police try to tell me.

 

[Metaphors]

Maybe he will turn it around this year and prove me wrong, if he does, great more power to him and the team. I just don't think end of the roster, fringe type players are what's ideally hoped for for 4th rounders and if you ask my opinion he has not been a good pick up to this point, no matter what the Patfans thought police try to tell me.

The Pats never intended to give a 290 lb rookie OG any meaningful snaps. They saw enough of his mental makeup and technique to invest a 4th round pick to get a potential gameday active interior lineman (swing guy, spot starter, select packages). Connolly and Wendell have more time in the program so he had an uphill battle to get on the field. The key is the Pats haven't really suffered much with Mankins or Neal out.

This year Ohrnberger, Connolly and Wendell are competing for 1 or 2 spots. If Ohrnberger washes out and the Pats have to settle with an unexpected and insufficient alternative, that is a waste. If Ohrnberger is beaten out by a superior talent who developed better and is a better fit, that is just good football. That is the difference that you don't seem to consider or understand. Having 4th round guards that are beaten out by successful developmental types is the sign of good roster management, not poor drafting.

So if Ohrnberger is cut or inactive and the Pats have a talent issue in the interior line, he was a failed pick. That clearly wasn't the case last year and I doubt it will be the case this year. I wouldn't worry about the thought policy. Criticizing a day 3 selection of an OG that didn't see the field much by age 25 is a minor infraction. Probably get off with a warning.

 

[Armchair Quarterback]

The Pats never intended to give a 290 lb rookie OG any meaningful snaps. They saw enough of his mental makeup and technique to invest a 4th round pick to get a potential gameday active interior lineman (swing guy, spot starter, select packages). Connolly and Wendell have more time in the program so he had an uphill battle to get on the field. The key is the Pats haven't really suffered much with Mankins or Neal out.

This year Ohrnberger, Connolly and Wendell are competing for 1 or 2 spots. If Ohrnberger washes out and the Pats have to settle with an unexpected and insufficient alternative, that is a waste. If Ohrnberger is beaten out by a superior talent who developed better and is a better fit, that is just good football. That is the difference that you don't seem to consider or understand. Having 4th round guards that are beaten out by successful developmental types is the sign of good roster management, not poor drafting.


So if Ohrnberger is cut or inactive and the Pats have a talent issue in the interior line, he was a failed pick. That clearly wasn't the case last year and I doubt it will be the case this year. I wouldn't worry about the thought policy. Criticizing a day 3 selection of an OG that didn't see the field much by age 25 is a minor infraction. Probably get off with a warning.

He was cut last year and when he was re signed he was only active for two games as a reserve. How is that not the case? It could also be relatively easy to argue that Quinn Ojinnaka was an unexpected and insufficient alternative, one that cost the Patriots another pick. So rest assured I have considered and I do understand your scenerio, however I have last year to fall back on and you have a future unknown hypothetical.


Also do you really believe that they spent a 4th rounder on someone they didn't intend to give any meaningful snaps to? What kind of rational is that? And he wasn't a rookie last year.

 

[DaBruinz]

IIRC he was viewed by most as a 7th rounder/UDFA, the Patriots overvalued him and so far, it hasn't paid off. The Patriots were scrambling for bodies at the end of TC last year and he still couldn't make the opening day roster. Every other team had a chance at him and nobody picked him up.

Ohrnberger ranged from a low 3rd/high 4th to a UDFA. To say that "most" viewed him as a 7th rounder/udfa is a huge stretch..



NFL Draft Scout----Powered By: The Sports Xchange

He is far from the worst draft pick they ever made but I would hope that they set the bar a little higher than "still wearing a uniform" for a 4th rounder, there should still be decent players at that spot. Ohrnberger doesn't suddenly turn into a good pick because other OL picked in that draft haven't worked out. Maybe he steps it up this year but from what I've seen, they could have done better.

Now, something to remember about Ohrnberger is that he was the last guy cut. He was also one of the first promoted off the practice squad..

Also, I think you have misinterpretted what patchick was saying. And that is that 2 of 23 straight O-line picks making an impact isn't very good numbers. so, maybe the talent, in general, just wasn't that good.

 

[Armchair Quarterback]

Ohrnberger ranged from a low 3rd/high 4th to a UDFA. To say that "most" viewed him as a 7th rounder/udfa is a huge stretch..



NFL Draft Scout----Powered By: The Sports Xchange



Now, something to remember about Ohrnberger is that he was the last guy cut. He was also one of the first promoted off the practice squad..

Also, I think you have misinterpretted what patchick was saying. And that is that 2 of 23 straight O-line picks making an impact isn't very good numbers. so, maybe the talent, in general, just wasn't that good.

Well the link you provided had him as their 326th ranked player. I'm pretty sure that is 7th round/udfa type value considering only about 250 players get drafted. Not exactly a huge stretch.

Ohrnberger was released on September 4, along with 19 other players.

New England Patriots Transactions at NFL.com

I understand what Patchick was trying to say, However I fail to understand how other OL picked after Ohrnberger should affect how we view him at that spot. If Ohrnberger was picked in the 4th round and we all agree that the higher the round the greater chance of success, why should we use the failure of OL taken in rounds 5,6 and 7 to judge whether or not Ohrnberger was a solid pick or not.

And if the OL talent wasn't that good as you (and PC) say then maybe they shouldn't have reached for Draft Scouts' 326th ranked undersized OL.

 

[DaBruinz]

I wouldn't call being 7th on the depth chart pushing for a starting job or quality depth. I wouldn't call getting released pushing for a starting job.

Here are some more fun facts:

Neal didn't play college football, Neal was not drafted
Hochstein was a street free agent
Connolly was a street free agent
Maneri was claimed on waivers
Yeatman is an undrafted free agent


What do they all have in common? That's right. They were not 4th round draft picks, in fact none of them were drafted by the Patriots at all. Neal by the way, had in fact earned a starting position in his second year. He happened to get hurt in that game against GB, missing the rest of the season as well as the next.

I kinda find it funny that you have Maneri and Yeatman on that list when they haven't accomplished jack in the NFL.

Hocstein was a 5th round pick by the Bucs. Connolly was a UDFA for the Jaguars and got cut a few times before the Pats claimed him off waivers.. And then he was cut by the Pats as well.

In other words, Just because the guy was cut once by the Pats doesn't make him a failure. And it took them a few years (Neal included) to make an impact.

Neal didn't earn a starting position in his 2nd year. He got the start because of other people being banged up. And it was the 5th game of the season. You're acting like he was starting out of TC, which wasn't the case at all.

You wanna know what else Neal, Hochstein, Connolly and Maneri all have in common? They were all cut by the Pats at least once...

 

[DaBruinz]

Well the link you provided had him as their 326th ranked player. I'm pretty sure that is 7th round/udfa type value considering only about 250 players get drafted. Not exactly a huge stretch.

Ohrnberger was released on September 4, along with 19 other players.

New England Patriots Transactions at NFL.com

I understand what Patchick was trying to say, However I fail to understand how other OL picked after Ohrnberger should affect how we view him at that spot. If Ohrnberger was picked in the 4th round and we all agree that the higher the round the greater chance of success, why should we use the failure of OL taken in rounds 5,6 and 7 to judge whether or not Ohrnberger was a solid pick or not.

And if the OL talent wasn't that good as you (and PC) say then maybe they shouldn't have reached for Draft Scouts' 326th ranked undersized OL.

It's amazing how you read only what you want to read and ignore other stuff.

First, where they rank players doesn't mean anything to the Pats and you are being ignorant to think it does. The Pats, under Belichick, have not used ANY of the outside scouting bureaus. So to say that player xyz wat rated 326th doesn't mean a damn thing.

Secondly, that same page shows the HIGH and LOWs of where the player was ranked. Something you ignored.

Third, you fail to understand because you don't want to. You have your mind set that Ohrnberger is a bust and that's that. You have shown that you aren't willing to rationally look at other information.

Lastly, hindsight is 20/20. I can sit here and say, now, that the OL quality wasn't that good, but clearly that isn't something that was known then. I understand that. YOU clearly don't. It's an irrational supposition on your part.

We get it. You don't like Ohrnberger. So don't participate in the conversation if all you are going to do is b!tch, whine, and be irrational while ignoring some pertinent information.