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OFFICIAL Countdown to 2012 Election Day Thread

Discussion in 'Political Discussion' started by IcyPatriot, Nov 3, 2012.

  1. IcyPatriot

    IcyPatriot ------------- PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #87 Jersey

    Okay ... time to serve up the election day thread. Perhaps some here want to partake in some pre election tailgating ... thus the thread goes up now.
     
    Last edited: Nov 4, 2012
  2. shmessy

    shmessy Maude Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #75 Jersey

    Re: OFFICIAL 2012 Election Day Thread

    Hilary Clinton is made of glass and Rick Santorum cannot set the edge, dammit!
     
  3. IcyPatriot

    IcyPatriot ------------- PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #87 Jersey

    Re: OFFICIAL 2012 Election Day Thread

    Yeah but Chris Christie is going to play NT and Paul Ryan is moving to OLB to set the edge.

    Romney is busy as I type this insourcing (sic) players from overseas.
     
    Last edited: Nov 3, 2012
  4. DarrylS

    DarrylS PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Re: OFFICIAL 2012 Election Day Thread

    [​IMG]
     
  5. patsinthesnow

    patsinthesnow PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #87 Jersey

    Let's go Gary, get that 5%. Then, enjoy the rest of the ****show no matter what.
     
  6. Patsfanin Philly

    Patsfanin Philly Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    #95 Jersey

    Re: OFFICIAL 2012 Election Day Thread

    So you're telling me that you didn't like the Kennedy years...because that was 50 years ago......
     
  7. Patsfanin Philly

    Patsfanin Philly Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    #95 Jersey

    [​IMG][​IMG]http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

    http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2012/ecalculator#_

    Start Romney with 206 and if he wins NH (4), VA (13), Fl (29)and OH (18), it gives him the 270 needed without having to win Pennsylvania, Nevada, Colorado, Iowa or Wisconsin.
    If he loses Ohio, he needs to win Pennsylvania which is a possibility based on tightening polls but I see them as twins, whoever wins one will likely win the other (OH), and the election.
     
    Last edited: Nov 4, 2012
  8. Harry Boy

    Harry Boy Look Up, It's Amazing PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I expect Barack Hussein Obama to win because it's "the right thing to do" but if I am wrong and Romney is declared the winner, GET READY FOR TROUBLE IN THE STREETS, THEY (the left wing) ARE SORE LOSERS AND WON'T ACCEPT IT, EVEN A LANDSLIDE.
     
    Last edited: Nov 4, 2012
  9. patsfan13

    patsfan13 Hall of Fame Poster PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Well here is my final analysis of the pre election polls.

    Looking at the raw data over at:Rebalanced Presidential Election Polls 2012

    The samples of all the national polls include 30,000 voters. This is a huge sample size so the margin of error should be very small.

    Looking across the %’s across the 30,000 raw numbers polled we see the following:

    Obama leading among dems, 91.15%, 7.62%, Other/Undecided 1.23%

    Romney leading among R’s, 94.47%, 4.74%, Other/Undecided .79%

    Romney leading among Indies: 47.40%, 38.13%. Other/Undecided 14.16%

    So we see the following Romney is leading among crossover voters by 2.88% and he is leading among Independents by 9.57%

    I make the following assumptions to simplify. Independents will comprise 30% of the total vote. Among the 14.16% of undecided independents 6% will go to third party candidates.

    The rest of the independents will break towards the challenger by a 70/30% ratio (a little under the historical norm.

    So let look at turnout models to see where we are at:

    If the dems have a 37-33% advantage over the R’s, Romney wins 50.5% to 47.7% (the other 1.8% to third parties).

    If the dems have a 2% turnout advantage (36-34%) Romney wins 51.4% to 46.8%

    If the turnout is even (IOW the dems doing better than 2010 when the R's were +1.3%) Romney wins 52.3% to 45.9%.

    If the turnout model is +1% R as per Gallup Romney wins 52.7% to 45.5%.

    The R’s are polling much higher in the voter enthusiasm/intensity measurement than dems this year.

    This election will be a blowout and the bad assumptions in the polling is also impacting the calculations of the Senate races, get out and vote, the rest will take care of itself.

    BTW if the turnout model matches 2008 (D 39, R 32, I 31): Romney wins the popular vote 50.3-49.9. This is the cliffhanger the pundits are ‘selling’ in the media to hype the ratings.


    The CU model looks to be very accurate based on the numbers in the national polls. The spinning on Wed should be epic.
     
  10. Drewski

    Drewski In the Starting Line-Up

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    No Jersey Selected

    :yeahthat:

    My sentiments exactly.
     
    Last edited: Nov 4, 2012
  11. DarrylS

    DarrylS PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Re: OFFICIAL 2012 Election Day Thread

    You would have had to have been there..
     
  12. Patters

    Patters Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Re: OFFICIAL 2012 Election Day Thread

    Seems there are several ways to look at this:
    Obama wins:
    - The polls are accurate
    - Obama's turnout machine will do better than Romney's at turning out supporters
    - Women will vote for Obama in larger numbers than expected because of Republican sexism
    - Hispanics will become a larger factor than before, and they overwhelmingly support Obama

    Romney wins:
    - Polls are inaccurate, oversampling Democrats or biased
    - Conservatives are more likely to lie to pollsters or not answer phones
    - Republicans will do enough to suppress and invalidate votes in Democratic leaning communities to gain an edge
    - Republicans are more psyched than Democrats to vote, and generally tend to be more reliable voters (typically older)

    Did I leave anything out?
     
    Last edited: Nov 4, 2012
  13. Drewski

    Drewski In the Starting Line-Up

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    No Jersey Selected

    If you believe in "rules" the Redskins lost.
     
  14. patsfan13

    patsfan13 Hall of Fame Poster PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Re: OFFICIAL 2012 Election Day Thread

    To expand on my earlier post Gallup is predicting a R +3% turnout model, as oppposed to the +6% D model being used by most pollsters.

    If this is true R +3% Then Romney will win by 9%

    Looking at the raw data over at:Rebalanced Presidential Election Polls 2012

    The samples of all the national polls include 30,000 voters. This is a huge sample size so the margin of error should be very small.

    Looking across the %’s across the 30,000 raw numbers polled we see the following:

    Obama leading among dems, 91.15%, 7.62%, Other/Undecided 1.23%

    Romney leading among R’s, 94.47%, 4.74%, Other/Undecided .79%

    Romney leading among Indies: 47.40%, 38.13%. Other/Undecided 14.16%

    So we see the following Romney is leading among crossover voters by 2.88% and he is leading among Independents by 9.57%

    I make the following assumptions to simplify. Independents will comprise 30% of the total vote. Among the 14.16% of undecided independents 6% will go to third party candidates.

    The rest of the independents will break towards the challenger by a 70/30% ratio (a little under the historical norm.


    If the turnout model is +3% R as per Gallup Romney wins 54.1% to 45.1%.

    It is reminiscent of the 2006 & 2008 here they dems won big in the midterm then had and even bigger in the following election.


    http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/332386/parsing-polls-michael-g-franc


     
    Last edited: Nov 4, 2012
  15. IcyPatriot

    IcyPatriot ------------- PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #87 Jersey

    Re: OFFICIAL 2012 Election Day Thread


    Obama wins ... The dead turnout in record numbers to vote. :p:p:p
     
  16. DarrylS

    DarrylS PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    The Republicans always play by the rules..

    Retired NSA Analyst Proves GOP Is Stealing Elections Part I

     
  17. patsfan13

    patsfan13 Hall of Fame Poster PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Re: OFFICIAL 2012 Election Day Thread


    Rasmussen has released their Oct party affiliation survey based on results from 15K likely voters, pretty shocking this was a 7.6% advantage for O in 2008. The latest is 5.8% R. shocking a record for this measure.

    Well IF this is correct Romney will win by double digits. When you aggregate all the national polls (which include 30k+ respondents) the numbers break as follows:

    Dems: O 91.2%, R 7.6%, U/O 1.2%
    Reps: O4.7%, R 94.5%, U/O 0.8%
    Indies: O 38.1%, R 47.7%, U/O 14.2%


    If we allocate 6% of the indies to the third party candidates, Have the undecided break 70/30 to Romney, and apply the Ras party affiliation model the election would turn out as follows:

    Romney 54.7%
    Obama 43.6%
    Third party 1.7%

    This sort of total blowout would of course have some other benefits, The Senate races would break R, and the Lib lackey's in the MSM would be totally discredited.

    Amazed that Ras is using a +3% D model in his samples.
     
  18. The Brandon Five

    The Brandon Five Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    #75 Jersey

    That story (from a blog, apparently) doesn't even make sense. So the idea is that GOP was stealing votes in a primary? Who were they stealing them from? Here's a tip: primaries are for candidates from one party or the other. The two parties face each other something called the "General Election".
     
  19. IcyPatriot

    IcyPatriot ------------- PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #87 Jersey

    Graveyards coming alive today ... prepping for tomorrow.

    [​IMG]
     
  20. Triumph

    Triumph Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    #32 Jersey

    President Romney dont let us down.

    Im ready to move on from the last 4 years like everyone else.
     

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