Official Asante prediction thread

[amazinPats]

He plays by the first game of the season and under the franchise tag. Gets traded or let go the following year. We've got him for one more year.

 

[LA Pats Fan]

He Holds out until week 10.

Plays the last 6 weeks filling in for an injured Randall Gay but doesn't have nearly the same prodcution that Randal had in weeks 1-10.

As a free agent his stock drops and offered a vet min salary

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Samuel runs two big risks by playing next year without a contract:
One, he suffers a career-ending or -limiting injury without getting the big guaranteed money.
Two, his performance falls off and he hurts his market value.

The Patriots run the risk that he plays all or half a year and then goes FA, worst case to the Jests, in which case they get nothing for him and only have him around for half a season, in which he might not give his all for fear of injury or whatever.

So, there are only two rational outcomes to the situation, as far as I can see (and assuming that rationality has something to do with this).

Samuel signs a five year deal with the Patriots, along the lines of Vasher's deal ($28 mil, 14 guaranteed), but richer, say 35, with 16 or 17 guaranteed.

The Patriots trade him before or just at the beginning of the season. He's worth a first round draft pick, but the problem is that potential trading partners will have figured out that the Patriots are in a bind. So, they have to find a team that feels that Asante is the missing piece for an SB run or trade him to a team they'd rather not trade him to or accept a second round pick.

The only way to know the right answer is to know what's going on between the Pats and Samuel's agent, which we don't. But, I'll say that the Patriots end up trading him and get a second round pick. Bad, but better than nothing.

 

[QuiGon]

He takes the franchise player money and becomes a UFA after this season.

 

[37Harrison]

He takes the franchise player money and becomes a UFA after this season.

^Yeah, what he said.

 

[denverpatsfan]

Semi-major point: the Pats can't cut him, because he's not under contract at this point. That said, what the Pats can do is remove the franchise tag, at which point he would become a free agent.

But, more importantly, I can't see any reason for the Pats to just remove the tag and let him sign with the JEST for nothing.

Yes that is correct. I am just not feeling optimistic about the possibility that he signs the agreement. So I predict a Deon Branch type trade to an NFC team for a second round pick.

 

[Patriot_in_NY]

He takes the franchise player money and becomes a UFA after this season.

^Yeah, what he said.

What they said. :agree:

 

[chowder]

I'd like to keep him for our super bowl run but i predict that he holds out and gets traded.

 

[italia44]

1.Asante is not going to back down,he will hold-out
until the game 11

2.The Pats will never trade AS for a 2nd rd draft choice.If he gets an offer from an AFCE team-2 1sts
From an AFC team-1st and 3rd
From a NFC team-1st and a player

3.The Pats WILL franchise AS in 2008......why?
because they CAN.......they will easily be able to afford this(see cap space in 2007 + 2008 increase)

4.Asante.....show me the offers......if you're worth
Bly or Clement money......tell BB,so he can negotiate compensation.Without this,you are foolishly,bartering against invisible offers.

5.BB and SP....No more draft choices...fans love them,however......losing a 26 yr old CB is never
worth it.You might WANT to sign AS to a 5 yr
contract,but AS is looking at a BIG 2nd contract,
so,it might be more viable to sign AS for a shorter
term.

6.this may be off the wall,but......look for trading
partners with Dallas,who has Cleveland's #1 or
Chicago,with Lance Briggs(also the bears are
a favored trading partner).
This would involve,not just AS,but Ben Watson as well(just a feeling I have).

 

[PatsFanSince74]

1.Asante is not going to back down,he will hold-out
until the game 11

2.The Pats will never trade AS for a 2nd rd draft choice.If he gets an offer from an AFCE team-2 1sts
From an AFC team-1st and 3rd
From a NFC team-1st and a player

3.The Pats WILL franchise AS in 2008......why?
because they CAN.......they will easily be able to afford this(see cap space in 2007 + 2008 increase)

4.Asante.....show me the offers......if you're worth
Bly or Clement money......tell BB,so he can negotiate compensation.Without this,you are foolishly,bartering against invisible offers.

5.BB and SP....No more draft choices...fans love them,however......losing a 26 yr old CB is never
worth it.You might WANT to sign AS to a 5 yr
contract,but AS is looking at a BIG 2nd contract,
so,it might be more viable to sign AS for a shorter
term.

6.this may be off the wall,but......look for trading
partners with Dallas,who has Cleveland's #1 or
Chicago,with Lance Briggs(also the bears are
a favored trading partner).
This would involve,not just AS,but Ben Watson as well(just a feeling I have).

Great post. really got me thinking.

Re 1: I disagree. It makes little or no sense for Samuel to risk injury for half a pay check, give or take.

Re 2: I'd make it "willingly trade." But I think they'd take a number two in September if they thought it was all they'd get. I agree that they would make the price to an AFCE team prohibitive.

Re 3: You're right from a "Take that!" perspective, but the pats franchised Vinatieri twice and they ended up losing him. Who knows how much it contributed to the bad atmosphere when he took the same money to play in Indy?

Re 4: Absolutely agree.

Re 5: Interesting thought, but if I'm AS I want to lock up my money and the next five years now.

Re 6: Thanks for pointing out the Dallas option, it gives me hope that they will get more than a number two for him, which is my prediction. I think Watson is too important to the offense for the pats to let him go.

 

[NYCPatsFan]

What they said. :agree:

What they all say: "He takes the franchise player money and becomes a UFA after this season"........:ditto:

 

[JoeSixPat]

If BB plans on being here for a handful more years don't look for the Pats to cave and agree to a trade like they did with Branch.

There's a long-term benefit to the Patriots drawing a line in the sand to let anyone know that holding out does not result in large contracts for players (either by trade or renegotiating)

Samuel's good but not critical - a perfect player to make that point and send a strong message. If Samuel chooses to hold out so be it - he's running a HIGH risk that the team franchises him next year.

Even if he does hold out I doubt BB will put him right back into a game. Effectively we'd have him for the playoffs and for Samuel, while there's some risk, he will need an opportunity to showcase his talents in the off chance he's a not franchised next season too.

But this is NOT going to end in Samuel's favor IMO - either he agrees to a reasonable extension, or reports before the season as a show of good faith in the hopes that he's not franchised again, he's going to have to cave.

I don't see a trade happening this season.

 

[dhamz]

1) He sits out some of camp.
2) He signs the tender after the Pats agree not to franchise him again.
3) He starts game 1.
4) He leaves in March as a free agent for the big $ some here insist isn't out there for him.

 

[Asante4prez]

He shows up in week 10, only to find he is traded to pittsburgh

 

[dhamz]

He shows up in week 10, only to find he is traded to pittsburgh

Which will be a really interesting result with the trade dealine having been more than a month earlier.....

 

[signbabybrady]

My prediction is that Asante will either play under the tag, hold out, be traded, or come to an agreement with us.

 

[ChoWZa]

SP/BB too smart to not have anticipated this. Which makes me believe they'll trade him, but for nothing less than a 1st rounder. Giving them the best value for both Branch/Samuel.

Asante's one chance for a huge contract was this offseason when teams were slinging money. He knows the opportunity is gone and is just doing desperate things but he doesn't hold any of the cards. He should be hoping for a trade as well. Only question is if theres a team out there who will pull the trigger and give up a 1st rounder and whatever monster contract Asante is after.

Otherwise he'll be back week 10, and probably tagged again next year.

 

[shakadave]

Nothing major happens before the July (16?) deadline. Samuel never plays a snap for the 2007 Patriots.

 

[PatsSteve1]

My prediction is that Asante will either play under the tag, hold out, be traded, or come to an agreement with us.

* You forgot he might drop dead.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

My prediction is that Asante will either play under the tag, hold out, be traded, or come to an agreement with us.

...let me write that down...