Offense. Getting Guys 'Their Numbers' vs Taking What the D Gives You

[maverick4]

I believe that somewhere in the past five years, that the offense has shifted from taking what the defense gives you, to getting guys 'their stats'.

Does anyone else remember the years from 2001-2004, when you really had no idea who was going to catch the most passes or the TD passes week to week? One week our star receiver could grab 8 balls, another week it would be another guy. We used to routinely see news stats about how many different receivers Brady threw to, or threw TD's to.

Somewhere along the line, this has changed. Look at Wes Welker's stats the past few years. Almost the exact same number of catches, yards, TD's, year after year. It's obviously a testament to his talent/skill and consistency, but at the same time indicative of how reliant the offense is on certain guys getting 'their stats' now. It used to not matter if Branch or Brown were out for a week, you knew they would find a way to win. Now, whenever Welker gets hurt people think the team is screwed (like against the blitz now). This is also related to how each of the past three years, we have run shot gun and passed out of shot gun almost the exact same percentage every year.

I believe that this point lies at the heart of the play-calling vs. execution argument. The team, nowadays, goes into predictable patterns, relying on the same guys to perform, in certain situations. The opposing defense knows this too. Most of the time our talent is so good it doesn't matter, but there are other times when it isn't good enough.

We've changed a lot from the days when we used to have an offense where a dozen different guys on offense could have the chance to be the star that week. The team would find a way to win, regardless of who played. Now, it's like if the same two or three guys don't perform or are out (which includes Brady), the team can't win.

 

[RayClay]

Playing my tune tonight, I guess.

 

[jmt57]

I agree that the play calling has become more predictable and that the team is not as deep; that is, the second level of talent is not as reliable as it was a few years ago. In fact, those two observations are probably intertwined in a chicken-or-the-egg sort of way.

However, I have trouble believing that coaches and/or players are more interested in stats than in winning. The only exception that I can think of to that was when it was apparent the team was trying to help Randy Moss set his touchdown reception record late in 2007. I think it is the lack of quality depth rather than an effort to pad stats that is leading to predictable play calling.

As for going to Welker so often the last two years, why wouldn't they? It has worked, and why would they try to fix something that wasn't broken? That situation may be somewhat different today, but would it have made sense to take Welker out of a game plan in certain 2007 and 2008 games, just so they could try to keep defenses guessing?

 

[maverick4]

jmt are you insinuating that the depth from 2001-2004 was better than it is now?

I would argue that those 2001-2004 squads had less talent especially offensively, and yet they were able to find ways to win. A large part of this is they weren't fixated on going to certain players for certain situations. They took what the D gave them. They didn't try to force plays.

 

[DocE]

It's strange as I see things completely differently. I feel like it's time for the Patriots to stop the "take what the defense gives you" and start dictating what THEY are going to do offensively. I am tired of Moss not getting the ball "because they played a safety over the top". Guess what? Find a way to get him the ball anyways, change formations, throw a screen to himl, have him start out in the backfield like they did once against Denver. I know Moss receives more attention than any WR in the league from opposing defenses, but to only be targeted 3 times in an entire game (especially when we only put 17 pts on the board) is ridiculous.

To me the Patriots are still very much take what the defense gives you, with the possible exception of 3rd down. On 3rd down, the ball seems to go to Welker with regularity. That said, you can't fault them for it most of the time as 1. Welker is sometimes being covered by an LB in these situations and 2. It's been very successful over the years.

The offense is too predictable right now and has become very conservative.

 

[IcyPatriot]

I believe that somewhere in the past five years, that the offense has shifted from taking what the defense gives you, to getting guys 'their stats'.

You are way over-reaching Mav ... you need a hot bath, some milk and cookies.

 

[Fencer]

Randy Moss not only takes what the opponent's defense gives him, he takes what the opponent's OFFENSE gives him too ...

 

[JFK]

It's mostly execution. If Brady hits those passes, running would become easier too. We started running well then it slowed down then we got into a situation we really couldn't run. We put ourselves into situations that prevent unpredictable playcalling.

 

[jmt57]

jmt are you insinuating that the depth from 2001-2004 was better than it is now?

I would argue that those 2001-2004 squads had less talent especially offensively, and yet they were able to find ways to win. A large part of this is they weren't fixated on going to certain players for certain situations. They took what the D gave them. They didn't try to force plays.

Not so much more depth; more evenly balanced from top to bottom if you will. In other words the difference between the number two option and the number three, four or five option was minimal then. That in turn probably played a large part in spreading the ball around. Now there is more of a cliff, more of a drop off after Moss and Welker. As a result, less spreading the ball around. And as a result of spreading the ball around less they have become more predictable.

 

[JoeShmoe]

Thing is I dont get why you dont try and get your best WR in the game. We did that against the Falcons with Moss and we won going away. All other teams find a way to get their best players in the game. You think Reggie Wayne or Larry Fitzgerald arent double covered each week?

That game last night I saw two exciting offenses, using different looks and schemes, and mutiple players getting the ball. I saw deep throws, wildcats, end arounds, RB's out the backfield

We need to use Watson like the Colts use Clark, Maroney out the backfield, our 3d WR needs to be involved. Defenses need to on their toes and not know what's coming. Right now all you have to do is blitz as 9 times out of 10 Brady is rattled and the ball is thrown away

We have Welker underneath or a screen and er, thats it. Bill O'Brian needs to learn some more plays

 

[maverick4]

It's strange as I see things completely differently. I feel like it's time for the Patriots to stop the "take what the defense gives you" and start dictating what THEY are going to do offensively. I am tired of Moss not getting the ball "because they played a safety over the top". Guess what? Find a way to get him the ball anyways, change formations, throw a screen to himl, have him start out in the backfield like they did once against Denver.

Doc, interesting post. So you don't think they try to dictate what they're doing on offense? They may not go to Moss every week if he's triple covered, but what about getting Welker his balls in certain predictable situations?

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

Doc, interesting post. So you don't think they try to dictate what they're doing on offense? They may not go to Moss every week if he's triple covered, but what about getting Welker his balls in certain predictable situations?

Ahh mav

So are you proposing an inverse Welker Rule where a certain number of passes CAN"T go to Welker?

Maybe Welker's stats have something to do with being the best slot receiver in the league? Just saying...........

How about a quick review:

The QB is coming off of major knee surgery. As such, you SHOULD KNOW that this can be a two year process and that his coach (Tom Martinez) since the age of 13 has said to expect the first half of the season to be erratic.

If the QB play is erratic, how the hell do you get "creative"? Maybe we need a blend of wishbone and run 'n shoot.

If you want to get "creative", how exactly does your all world QB get unerratic and run the offense he has run to perfection in previous years?

Six different receivers caught passes Sunday, nine the previous week. How exactly is that not "spreading it around"? Do 18 players and all the lineman need receptions to meet the "spreading it around" threshold?

The 2003 defense averaged giving up 14.87 points per game. This defense is averaging giving up 14.8 points per game. This might be a shock but the majority of NFL games are not shutouts. It's a shocker but the defense will give up some yards and points.

It's getting to a point where 2/3 of this blog would be shocked to learn water flows downhill.

 

[maverick4]

Welker
2007 112catches 1175yards 10.5 ypc
2008 111catches 1165yards 10.5 ypc


Almost identical. This suggests that he's being used exactly the same way... meaning getting a guy the ball in certain situations no matter what, as opposed to a different player being asked to step up depending on the opponent.

 

[Lloyd_Christmas]

Welker
2007 112catches 1175yards 10.5 ypc
2008 111catches 1165yards 10.5 ypc


Almost identical. This suggests that he's being used exactly the same way... meaning getting a guy the ball in certain situations no matter what, as opposed to a different player being asked to step up depending on the opponent.

I'm all for moving the ball around, especially more passes to our TE's which I think are being under-utilized, but in all fairness, those stats don't mean S_H_I_T other than that Welker is a damn good receiver.

After Moss and Welker, we have Edleman at WR, who has caught some passes. I think it is time to get galloway involved. Tom needs to be practicing his timing and deep ball with Moss and Galloway before and after every practice from now until the problem is fixed. He could also use some reps on hitting his receivers in stride.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

I'm all for moving the ball around, especially more passes to our TE's which I think are being under-utilized, but in all fairness, those stats don't mean S_H_I_T other than that Welker is a damn good receiver.

After Moss and Welker, we have Edleman at WR, who has caught some passes. I think it is time to get galloway involved. Tom needs to be practicing his timing and deep ball with Moss and Galloway before and after every practice from now until the problem is fixed. He could also use some reps on hitting his receivers in stride.

I agree to an extent, it has nothing to do with getting guys numbers, but it does have something to do with a belief you can dictate what teams give you. Unfortunately, while Brady has missed a couple of deep balls Randy has missed a couple of makable plays for someone of his talent level and he has been unable to get open far more often than not. That trend began in December of 2007. Before that he was routinely beating double coverage, now he sometimes cannot beat single man with intermittent safety help. That puts a crimp in your dictating.

I think Galloway was signed to cause sufficient concern to force teams not to roll coverage but he has not panned out. Welker's absence early on changed the way everyone had to play and his replacement, while amazing relative to what could have been reasonably expected from a converted QB, is learning the position. And Welker has at times been inconsistent as well. And then there were recurring pass protection issues...All of those crimp your ability to dictatate anything. What remains is taking what you're given and since most teams play us like it's their regular season SB there ishasn't been a ton of giving going on.

In those situations everyone has to execute basically to perfection and avoid costly mistakes at all cost and frankly that hasn't consistently happened. The OL continues to have it's struggles both in run and pass blocking and those collaterally take the TE's out of the pattern more often than not. 5 attempts to TE's Sunday, only 1 connected albeit Watson for a TD. But then he was out and we were left with two first year TE's, one of whom is largely a blocker.

I think the encouraging thing is Bill finally sounds like he's had enough of banging his head against a wall waiting for 2007 to re-commence while paying $9M for a glorified decoy. Whether he's got the horses to do something about it remains to be seen. Galloway may be a lost cause, Aiken looks overmatched, Tate is still at least weeks away and I doubt he or Nunn have had any time to get on the same page as Brady. They continue to say they need to get Maroney in space and they fail to even attempt it with any consistency. They have to get Watson or Baker running routes without getting Brady killed or the running game shut down in the process.

It all starts and ends in the trenches. Will be interesting to see if Vollmer has the potential to be an upgrade but they need more stout and consistent blocking up the middle, too. Tennessee and Tampa are in relative dissaray and should give them some breathing room heading into the bye. Coming out of it they best have a better game plan - on both sides of the ball.

 

[Mogamedogz]

With the exception of late 2007, I dont see them forcing the ball to anyone. It just so happens that Welker gets open a ton.

We've been running the same 3rd down screen play to Faulk for years now... and it still works. :shrugs:

 

[maverick4]

You are way over-reaching Mav ...

Funny, a few games later and we both still feel the same way. I still think they are forcing the ball to certain players, and you don't see it.

 

[ALP]

u phrased it wrong, but ur a little bit right, u got the right concept

we used to take what the defense gives u....but now we play to our strength.....

that was Josh's mentality, prob is, Josh was able to make it work, and was able to impose his will on the opposing defense....we cant do that anymore, O'Brians cant at least not yet

so he should scrap what Josh was doing the last 3 years, adn go back to what Weis was doing during our SB runs...and go back to the concept of getting what the defense gives u

we could care less about stats....but we go to our main guys even when theyre not open, which gives D coords. and easy time who to gameplan for...its not THAT hard to just take 2 players out of an offense (wes, moss)

instead of starting to focus on other guys, we try even more to open wes and moss up, where i see it as different, if we start giving more attention to other guys, we can get the D coords. attention and give some breathing room to moss and wes

 

[SVN]

I believe that somewhere in the past five years, that the offense has shifted from taking what the defense gives you, to getting guys 'their stats'.

Does anyone else remember the years from 2001-2004, when you really had no idea who was going to catch the most passes or the TD passes week to week? One week our star receiver could grab 8 balls, another week it would be another guy. We used to routinely see news stats about how many different receivers Brady threw to, or threw TD's to.

Somewhere along the line, this has changed. Look at Wes Welker's stats the past few years. Almost the exact same number of catches, yards, TD's, year after year. It's obviously a testament to his talent/skill and consistency, but at the same time indicative of how reliant the offense is on certain guys getting 'their stats' now. It used to not matter if Branch or Brown were out for a week, you knew they would find a way to win. Now, whenever Welker gets hurt people think the team is screwed (like against the blitz now). This is also related to how each of the past three years, we have run shot gun and passed out of shot gun almost the exact same percentage every year.

I believe that this point lies at the heart of the play-calling vs. execution argument. The team, nowadays, goes into predictable patterns, relying on the same guys to perform, in certain situations. The opposing defense knows this too. Most of the time our talent is so good it doesn't matter, but there are other times when it isn't good enough.

We've changed a lot from the days when we used to have an offense where a dozen different guys on offense could have the chance to be the star that week. The team would find a way to win, regardless of who played. Now, it's like if the same two or three guys don't perform or are out (which includes Brady), the team can't win.

you also remember we won games like 9-6 scores vs cleveland and 12-0 vs dallas. That offense was efficient for sure but the defense gave them a chance to win most games scoring on 20+ pts. Put that same offense with our defense now and see where we stand.
In all this discussion of offense and playcalling we have forgotten its the defense which won us those championships and will do so in the future.

 

[maverick4]

I agree defense wins championships. It's been in my signature for years.

However, both units don't perform in a vacuum. An offense playing field position and killing clock, and punting deep into an opponent's territory probably isn't very "sexy", but helps manage a game and helps its defense.

You act as if the old offenses never scored points. They did, and especially did so during times when we absolutely needed a score or first down. You also write as if the recent D's were horrible, when they were always in the top 1/5 of the league going back to 2006.