Odds of making the playoffs: 18.7%

[billdog3484]

so you're telling me there's a chance?

great!!!!!

 

[PatsFanSince74]

I'm not familiar with the statistics you cite (but, any model that ends up with a range between 18.7 and 30.4 definitely has some "issues" as that is a pretty wide spread).

So, here's how I'm thinking about it.

1) We have to win out to have a reasonable chance. One loss and it's almost certainly over.

2) Even if we win out, we don't control our own destiny and could become the second team to go 11--5 and miss the Playoffs. Maybe it's karma, as it has already been pointed out that we were the team that went 11--5 in 1985 and edged out the 11--5 Broncos. Beyond that, I guess I'm not smart enough to figure out all of the tie-breaker and other contingencies. I just hope for the best.

3) In the past four weeks, we played three games (two of them at home) against quality opponents, in any one of which we could have solidified our playoff chances, but lost all three of them.

4) It really doesn't matter whether it's fair that an 11--5 team could miss the Playoffs while a mediocre 9--7 (or 8--8) team might make them. No one really cares, except for the 11--5 team that loses out.

5) "It will be what it will be." All we can do is take it week by week.

 

[jmt57]

IF that is the case..have NO divisions...16 teams...and take the top 6....PART of this is the BEST FROM THAT division if it sucks they still have a team in...

Never going to happen, it makes no business sense. In that scenario you have two races, and only two winners. In the current setup you have eight races, eight winners. That means four times as many fan bases interested in their team, that's less late season empty seats and more apparel sales for a playoff contender, etc. It's along the same lines of a salary cap; it keeps fans in almost every NFL city interested and believing in their team every year.

Plus the current schedule is great because your team plays every other in conference team every three years, every out of conference team every four years. In the old schedule format some fans were denied ever seeing certain other teams; as I recall Marino played against Elway, only once in twelve tears, for example.

Besides, in the worst case scenario - that a bad division winner bumps another team from the playoffs - the team that gets left out is only the conference's 6th best team; that's hardly a travesty.

 

[TruthSeeker]

Think before you post next time

EDIT: There was ONE team in NFL history to miss the playoffs at 11-5 The Dener Broncos did and ironically enough,The Pats were the team that knocked them out.

How ironic.

 

[VJCPatriot]

So the Pats have a less than 1 in 5 chance of making the playoffs? Yup, sounds about right. Does anybody think this team can go 4-0 down the stretch? I'd have to see it to believe it, but I haven't seen anything to indicate that's possible.

Final 4 opponents:
@ Seahawks. 2-10 opponent. If they don't win this game they don't deserve to be in the playoffs, PERIOD.
@ Raiders. 3-9. Another cellar dweller opponent. See above comment.
VS Cardinals. 7-5. Cardinals would count as a quality opponent this year. Luckily their weakness is there secondary so Cassel could have a field day. Unfortunately the converse is true of our secondary so Kurt Warner could have a field day as well. Expect a shootout.
@ Bills. 6-6. The Pats absolutely can't afford to lose this game as that would kill their conference record, which figures into tiebreaking, assuming that they managed to win the first 3 games.

The two most likely losses are against the Cards and the Bills. And if they lose to either the Seahawks or Raiders, that would just be pathetic.

 

[jgpatriot]

Wow! With the Yahoo generator, I have a scenario where Miami wins the division, Patriots get the 6th seed and the Jets are out.

I know it is unlikely but it is possible:

If Miami wins out (by default Jets lose one) and the Pats win out and Jets win 3 out of 4, then wins the division at 11-5.

That would be amazing for Phin fans. That MIA vs NYJ game is looking really big for the AFC East.

By the way, Jets at 11-5 would be out. So it is possible for a 11-5 to be out.

 

[nashvillepatsfan]

What were the odds on the Pats back in 2001?

 

[PatsSox363804]

Wow! With the Yahoo generator, I have a scenario where Miami wins the division, Patriots get the 6th seed and the Jets are out.

I know it is unlikely but it is possible:

If Miami wins out (by default Jets lose one) and the Pats win out and Jets win 3 out of 4, then wins the division at 11-5.

That would be amazing for Phin fans. That MIA vs NYJ game is looking really big for the AFC East.

By the way, Jets at 11-5 would be out. So it is possible for a 11-5 to be out.

I'd love to just get in and knock the Jets out. Anything after that is bonus.

 

[jgpatriot]

My preferred playoff scenario.

Miami goes 3-1 and the lost does matter.
Jets goes 3-1 loses to either Buffalo or Miami
Patriots wins out.
Baltimore goes 3-1 or 4-0.

Result
Pats win AFC East and #3 Seed
Jets and Phins are out.

Ten
Pit
Ne
Den
Ind
Balt

 

[JSn]

Wow! With the Yahoo generator, I have a scenario where Miami wins the division, Patriots get the 6th seed and the Jets are out.

I know it is unlikely but it is possible:

If Miami wins out (by default Jets lose one) and the Pats win out and Jets win 3 out of 4, then wins the division at 11-5.

That would be amazing for Phin fans. That MIA vs NYJ game is looking really big for the AFC East.

By the way, Jets at 11-5 would be out. So it is possible for a 11-5 to be out.

I really think the Jets will get a run for their money on Sunday and drop the Phins the game. Penny and co. should be able to chew up their defense. I expect him to pick on Ty.

If we can't win the division, I hope the Phins do. The thought of the Jets and The Zero being the big talk over January makes feel nauseous.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Wow! With the Yahoo generator, I have a scenario where Miami wins the division, Patriots get the 6th seed and the Jets are out.

I know it is unlikely but it is possible:

If Miami wins out (by default Jets lose one) and the Pats win out and Jets win 3 out of 4, then wins the division at 11-5.

That would be amazing for Phin fans. That MIA vs NYJ game is looking really big for the AFC East.

By the way, Jets at 11-5 would be out. So it is possible for a 11-5 to be out.

Exactly. Here's how it works.
We're tied with the Phins.
The Ty (sic) breakers for us both being 11-5 are as follows...

1. Head-to-head (team with the best record in all games played between the teams tied)
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division. (This is for determining Division Champion; also, if there is a tie for a wild-card berth, this is used for breaking ties within a division.)
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games (only applicable with a minimum of 4 common opponents)
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.

1&2 we would be tied.
Skip 3 because we don't have 4 common opponents (this is where Miami's easier opponents schedule really aids them)
4 is where we buy the farm since we now have 5 Conference losses and Miami only has 4 Conf losses. Miami wins out and we are toast.

Worse yet, I will be serving Life in prison for choking to death that Wide Receiver twerp.

 

[Fanfrom1960]

Kind of depressing having a lower percentage than Cardinals, Vikings, Jets, Falcons and Dolphins. However, the Pats' three super bowl rings, all in this decade, aren't going anywhere.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Wow! With the Yahoo generator, I have a scenario where Miami wins the division, Patriots get the 6th seed and the Jets are out.
...

I want to smoke what jgp is smoking... :singing:

 

[jgpatriot]

I want to smoke what jgp is smoking... :singing:

I wish I was smoking something. I never smoked anything other than a rack of ribs. Maybe I drank too much microbrew but the scenario is not that far-fetched.

Dolphins win out
Pats win out
Jets win 3 and lose to Phins
Balt win 2 and lose 2

 

[Disco Volante]

Skip 3 because we don't have 4 common opponents (this is where Miami's easier opponents schedule really aids them)

Every AFC East team plays the AFC/NFC West.

 

[muslimman]

Honestly I dont think we can win the division. If only because the Jets have a pretty easy remaining schedule.

What I hope and think will most likely happen is that we take the wild card spot away from the Ravens. They are horrible against teams with winning records and they will be playing the Redskins, Steelers, Cowboys and finally the Jaguars. I see them going winning only 1 of those games... most likely against the Jags. I think we can go 3-1 (loss to the Cardinals) while the Dolphins get knocked out by going 2-2 and losing against the Jets and Chiefs.