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Odds of making the playoffs: 18.7%

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by Palm Beach Pats Fan, Dec 3, 2008.

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  1. Palm Beach Pats Fan

    Palm Beach Pats Fan Rookie

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    Here is an interesting number-crunching site that does game simulations and playoff scenarios.

    NFL Playoff Picture - Sports Club Stats

    I'm not necessarily a stat geek, but we have debated at length how "done" we are after tough losses. When you scroll over a team name you see how the odds of making the playoffs has changed with each week of play. Click on it and you get the detailed info.

    There are two ways the odds are calculated- one called 50/50 in which each game is considered a coin toss. In that scenario, the odds are 30.4% for the Patriots to make the playoffs, but a 97.7% chance if we go 4-0 from now on, and a respectable 72.9% chance if we go 3-1.

    The other way of calculation, called weighted (click at the top) takes into account home/away, strength of opponent, recent game trends, etc. and is probably more accurate. We are apparently badly hurt by the easy schedules of many of the teams we are in competition with for playoff spots. The overall odds drop to 18.7%, and "only" an 81.9% chance of making the playoffs even with a 4-0 finish.

    It makes you sick to compare the odds with top teams in awful divisions like Denver and Arizona.

    It's also revealing to see how much one loss can hurt- our playoff odds dropped from 47% to 19% due to the Pittsburgh game alone.
    Last edited: Dec 3, 2008
  2. Disco Volante

    Disco Volante Rookie

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    Well remember, one of the major reasons the AFC East has no losing teams right now is because of the fact half of every teams schedule consists of those very two divisions.
  3. Palm Beach Pats Fan

    Palm Beach Pats Fan Rookie

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    True, but it would still suck if the Broncos go 8-8 or even 7-9 and make the playoffs while the Patriots don't at 10-6 or even 11-5.

    The top 6 records should make it, with tiebreaks going to division champions after the head-to-head tiebreakers.
    Last edited: Dec 3, 2008
  4. Deus Irae

    Deus Irae PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club PatsFans.com Supporter

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    How is that any fairer than the current system, given that teams don't the same schedules?
  5. Palm Beach Pats Fan

    Palm Beach Pats Fan Rookie

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    There is no perfectly fair system, obviously, but I would think under my hypothetical scenario it would be far more likely that a 11-5 Patriots team would be more playoff-worthy than a 7-9 Bronchos team. You play with the games you are given, but it should be important how many of them you win.

    The concept of divison rivalries is already augmented by the home-and-home division opponent scheduling. I don't see the logic in automatically guaranteeing a playoff spot, especially now with many 4-team divisions. It just makes it more and more likely to have sub-0.500 playoff teams, making the NFL look like the NBA or NHL, where crappy teams looking to next year and lamenting their awful season sometimes make the playoffs.

    That doesn't seem to be good for the NFL, but I suppose it would take a few 7-9 or even 6-10 teams making it to the playoffs and losing 49-7 to get the rules changed.
    Last edited: Dec 3, 2008
  6. Disco Volante

    Disco Volante Rookie

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    They have the same record as us, I don't see them losing out or going 1-3.

    Plus, they single handily kept us in a division race last week, despite going 1-2 in our last three games.
  7. Rob0729

    Rob0729 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Actually, the Jets are 1-3 vs. the AFC West.
  8. PATRIOTSFANINPA

    PATRIOTSFANINPA Rookie

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    I could care less about those percentages

    If the Patriots win their last 4 (unlikely but possible) and go 11-5 they ARE GUARANTEED to get in the playoffs and probably the #6 seed...

    Period,end of story - NO Chance an 11-5 team misses out as history shows

    10-6 would mean that Baltimore and a host of other teams would probably have to go 2-2 in the next 4 for NE to make possibly make it in at 10-6

    Simply meaning another loss and its sionara,see you later,Theres always next year conversations to begin
    Last edited: Dec 3, 2008
  9. Disco Volante

    Disco Volante Rookie

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    True, but the overall point remains.

    AFC East overall record against AFC/NFC West: 17-7 (.739)

    2-0 vs NFC West
    Patriots (4-1 combined)
    Jets (3-3 combined)

    3-0 vs AFC West
    Dolphins (5-1 combined)
    Bills (5-2 combined)
  10. TruthSeeker

    TruthSeeker PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Let me see. The in-depth analysis says an 81.9% chance if the Pats go 4-0; the off-the-cuff bluster of PatriotsFanInPA says 100%. What should I believe? :rolleyes:
    Last edited: Dec 3, 2008
  11. PatsSox363804

    PatsSox363804 Rookie

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    Baltimore is our best bet, they have Pittsburgh, Dallas, Jax, and Washington. If Pitt and Dallas take them out, which is entirely possible, and we win out we're in.
  12. Pats726

    Pats726 Rookie

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    IF that is the case..have NO divisions...16 teams...and take the top 6....PART of this is the BEST FROM THAT division if it sucks they still have a team in...
  13. Danny

    Danny Rookie

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    So you're telling me there's a chance?

    [​IMG]
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  14. PATRIOTSFANINPA

    PATRIOTSFANINPA Rookie

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    How many 11-5 teams failed to make the playoffs, genius?

    How about never?

    Think before you post next time :rolleyes:

    EDIT: There was ONE team in NFL history to miss the playoffs at 11-5 The Dener Broncos did and ironically enough,The Pats were the team that knocked them out.
    Last edited: Dec 3, 2008
  15. Gunnails

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  16. JSn

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    Last edited: Dec 3, 2008
  17. BlitzFritz

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    hmmm that looks ugly.
    i had NEP winning out. also the Jets winning out.
    and Baltimore losing to Pitt but beating Dallas.

    NEP misses the playoffs.

    yikes!


    - FRITZ
  18. BoTown

    BoTown Rookie

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    But it's not guaranteed. The possibility exists that the Colts, Ravens, and Jets win out as well, putting them each at 12-4 and keeping the Patriots out at 11-5.
  19. billdog3484

    billdog3484 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    all i know is that we have to go 3-1 to have a chance, but may need to go 4-0 because of the tie-break situation. unfortunately, most of our losses have come to AFC teams, and that is what essnetially is the tie break. gotta get hot. at least our schedule isnt impossible. but even so, dont you want to win the hard games? I know i do. shows the true character of a team. when we have won championships, we have beaten the good teams in the regular season. not this year
  20. BPF

    BPF Rookie

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    I think what PATRIOTSFANINPA is trying to say is that if the Pats simply worry about their four games and win out, and let the chips fall where they may, the more likely scenario, as history has pointed out, is that they will be in the fantastic tournament that is the NFL playoffs.

    Also, if Baltimore wins out with that schedule they deserve to be in the playoffs. I don't see it happening, especially with a rookie QB, but if they do it will be impressive. I actually think they will go 1-3 down the stretch here in December, call it a hunch that they have a December swoon.
  21. billdog3484

    billdog3484 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    great!!!!!
  22. PatsFanSince74

    PatsFanSince74 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I'm not familiar with the statistics you cite (but, any model that ends up with a range between 18.7 and 30.4 definitely has some "issues" as that is a pretty wide spread).

    So, here's how I'm thinking about it.

    1) We have to win out to have a reasonable chance. One loss and it's almost certainly over.

    2) Even if we win out, we don't control our own destiny and could become the second team to go 11--5 and miss the Playoffs. Maybe it's karma, as it has already been pointed out that we were the team that went 11--5 in 1985 and edged out the 11--5 Broncos. Beyond that, I guess I'm not smart enough to figure out all of the tie-breaker and other contingencies. I just hope for the best.

    3) In the past four weeks, we played three games (two of them at home) against quality opponents, in any one of which we could have solidified our playoff chances, but lost all three of them.

    4) It really doesn't matter whether it's fair that an 11--5 team could miss the Playoffs while a mediocre 9--7 (or 8--8) team might make them. No one really cares, except for the 11--5 team that loses out.

    5) "It will be what it will be." All we can do is take it week by week.
  23. jmt57

    jmt57 Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Never going to happen, it makes no business sense. In that scenario you have two races, and only two winners. In the current setup you have eight races, eight winners. That means four times as many fan bases interested in their team, that's less late season empty seats and more apparel sales for a playoff contender, etc. It's along the same lines of a salary cap; it keeps fans in almost every NFL city interested and believing in their team every year.

    Plus the current schedule is great because your team plays every other in conference team every three years, every out of conference team every four years. In the old schedule format some fans were denied ever seeing certain other teams; as I recall Marino played against Elway, only once in twelve tears, for example.

    Besides, in the worst case scenario - that a bad division winner bumps another team from the playoffs - the team that gets left out is only the conference's 6th best team; that's hardly a travesty.
  24. TruthSeeker

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    How ironic. :D
  25. VJCPatriot

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    So the Pats have a less than 1 in 5 chance of making the playoffs? Yup, sounds about right. Does anybody think this team can go 4-0 down the stretch? I'd have to see it to believe it, but I haven't seen anything to indicate that's possible.

    Final 4 opponents:
    @ Seahawks. 2-10 opponent. If they don't win this game they don't deserve to be in the playoffs, PERIOD.
    @ Raiders. 3-9. Another cellar dweller opponent. See above comment.
    VS Cardinals. 7-5. Cardinals would count as a quality opponent this year. Luckily their weakness is there secondary so Cassel could have a field day. Unfortunately the converse is true of our secondary so Kurt Warner could have a field day as well. Expect a shootout.
    @ Bills. 6-6. The Pats absolutely can't afford to lose this game as that would kill their conference record, which figures into tiebreaking, assuming that they managed to win the first 3 games.

    The two most likely losses are against the Cards and the Bills. And if they lose to either the Seahawks or Raiders, that would just be pathetic.
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    Last edited: Dec 3, 2008
  26. jgpatriot

    jgpatriot Rookie

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    Wow! With the Yahoo generator, I have a scenario where Miami wins the division, Patriots get the 6th seed and the Jets are out.

    I know it is unlikely but it is possible:

    If Miami wins out (by default Jets lose one) and the Pats win out and Jets win 3 out of 4, then wins the division at 11-5.

    That would be amazing for Phin fans. That MIA vs NYJ game is looking really big for the AFC East.

    By the way, Jets at 11-5 would be out. So it is possible for a 11-5 to be out.
  27. nashvillepatsfan

    nashvillepatsfan Rookie

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    What were the odds on the Pats back in 2001? ;)
  28. PatsSox363804

    PatsSox363804 Rookie

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    I'd love to just get in and knock the Jets out. Anything after that is bonus.
  29. jgpatriot

    jgpatriot Rookie

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    My preferred playoff scenario.

    Miami goes 3-1 and the lost does matter.
    Jets goes 3-1 loses to either Buffalo or Miami
    Patriots wins out.
    Baltimore goes 3-1 or 4-0.

    Result
    Pats win AFC East and #3 Seed
    Jets and Phins are out.

    Ten
    Pit
    Ne
    Den
    Ind
    Balt
    Last edited: Dec 4, 2008
  30. JSn

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    I really think the Jets will get a run for their money on Sunday and drop the Phins the game. Penny and co. should be able to chew up their defense. I expect him to pick on Ty.

    If we can't win the division, I hope the Phins do. The thought of the Jets and The Zero being the big talk over January makes feel nauseous.
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