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Odds of making the playoffs: 18.7%

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by Palm Beach Pats Fan, Dec 3, 2008.

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  1. Palm Beach Pats Fan

    Palm Beach Pats Fan Rookie

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    #93 Jersey

    Here is an interesting number-crunching site that does game simulations and playoff scenarios.

    NFL Playoff Picture - Sports Club Stats

    I'm not necessarily a stat geek, but we have debated at length how "done" we are after tough losses. When you scroll over a team name you see how the odds of making the playoffs has changed with each week of play. Click on it and you get the detailed info.

    There are two ways the odds are calculated- one called 50/50 in which each game is considered a coin toss. In that scenario, the odds are 30.4% for the Patriots to make the playoffs, but a 97.7% chance if we go 4-0 from now on, and a respectable 72.9% chance if we go 3-1.

    The other way of calculation, called weighted (click at the top) takes into account home/away, strength of opponent, recent game trends, etc. and is probably more accurate. We are apparently badly hurt by the easy schedules of many of the teams we are in competition with for playoff spots. The overall odds drop to 18.7%, and "only" an 81.9% chance of making the playoffs even with a 4-0 finish.

    It makes you sick to compare the odds with top teams in awful divisions like Denver and Arizona.

    It's also revealing to see how much one loss can hurt- our playoff odds dropped from 47% to 19% due to the Pittsburgh game alone.
    Last edited: Dec 3, 2008
  2. Disco Volante

    Disco Volante Rookie

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    Well remember, one of the major reasons the AFC East has no losing teams right now is because of the fact half of every teams schedule consists of those very two divisions.
  3. Palm Beach Pats Fan

    Palm Beach Pats Fan Rookie

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    #93 Jersey

    True, but it would still suck if the Broncos go 8-8 or even 7-9 and make the playoffs while the Patriots don't at 10-6 or even 11-5.

    The top 6 records should make it, with tiebreaks going to division champions after the head-to-head tiebreakers.
    Last edited: Dec 3, 2008
  4. Deus Irae

    Deus Irae PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Disable Jersey

    How is that any fairer than the current system, given that teams don't the same schedules?
  5. Palm Beach Pats Fan

    Palm Beach Pats Fan Rookie

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    #93 Jersey

    There is no perfectly fair system, obviously, but I would think under my hypothetical scenario it would be far more likely that a 11-5 Patriots team would be more playoff-worthy than a 7-9 Bronchos team. You play with the games you are given, but it should be important how many of them you win.

    The concept of divison rivalries is already augmented by the home-and-home division opponent scheduling. I don't see the logic in automatically guaranteeing a playoff spot, especially now with many 4-team divisions. It just makes it more and more likely to have sub-0.500 playoff teams, making the NFL look like the NBA or NHL, where crappy teams looking to next year and lamenting their awful season sometimes make the playoffs.

    That doesn't seem to be good for the NFL, but I suppose it would take a few 7-9 or even 6-10 teams making it to the playoffs and losing 49-7 to get the rules changed.
    Last edited: Dec 3, 2008
  6. Disco Volante

    Disco Volante Rookie

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    They have the same record as us, I don't see them losing out or going 1-3.

    Plus, they single handily kept us in a division race last week, despite going 1-2 in our last three games.
  7. Rob0729

    Rob0729 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Actually, the Jets are 1-3 vs. the AFC West.
  8. PATRIOTSFANINPA

    PATRIOTSFANINPA Rookie

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    #12 Jersey

    I could care less about those percentages

    If the Patriots win their last 4 (unlikely but possible) and go 11-5 they ARE GUARANTEED to get in the playoffs and probably the #6 seed...

    Period,end of story - NO Chance an 11-5 team misses out as history shows

    10-6 would mean that Baltimore and a host of other teams would probably have to go 2-2 in the next 4 for NE to make possibly make it in at 10-6

    Simply meaning another loss and its sionara,see you later,Theres always next year conversations to begin
    Last edited: Dec 3, 2008
  9. Disco Volante

    Disco Volante Rookie

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    True, but the overall point remains.

    AFC East overall record against AFC/NFC West: 17-7 (.739)

    2-0 vs NFC West
    Patriots (4-1 combined)
    Jets (3-3 combined)

    3-0 vs AFC West
    Dolphins (5-1 combined)
    Bills (5-2 combined)
  10. TruthSeeker

    TruthSeeker PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Let me see. The in-depth analysis says an 81.9% chance if the Pats go 4-0; the off-the-cuff bluster of PatriotsFanInPA says 100%. What should I believe? :rolleyes:
    Last edited: Dec 3, 2008
  11. PatsSox363804

    PatsSox363804 Rookie

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    Baltimore is our best bet, they have Pittsburgh, Dallas, Jax, and Washington. If Pitt and Dallas take them out, which is entirely possible, and we win out we're in.
  12. Pats726

    Pats726 Rookie

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    IF that is the case..have NO divisions...16 teams...and take the top 6....PART of this is the BEST FROM THAT division if it sucks they still have a team in...
  13. Danny

    Danny Rookie

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    No Jersey Selected

    So you're telling me there's a chance?

    [​IMG]
    • Like Like x 1
  14. PATRIOTSFANINPA

    PATRIOTSFANINPA Rookie

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    #12 Jersey

    How many 11-5 teams failed to make the playoffs, genius?

    How about never?

    Think before you post next time :rolleyes:

    EDIT: There was ONE team in NFL history to miss the playoffs at 11-5 The Dener Broncos did and ironically enough,The Pats were the team that knocked them out.
    Last edited: Dec 3, 2008
  15. Gunnails

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  16. JSn

    JSn Rookie

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    Last edited: Dec 3, 2008
  17. BlitzFritz

    BlitzFritz Rookie

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    hmmm that looks ugly.
    i had NEP winning out. also the Jets winning out.
    and Baltimore losing to Pitt but beating Dallas.

    NEP misses the playoffs.

    yikes!


    - FRITZ
  18. BoTown

    BoTown Rookie

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    But it's not guaranteed. The possibility exists that the Colts, Ravens, and Jets win out as well, putting them each at 12-4 and keeping the Patriots out at 11-5.
  19. billdog3484

    billdog3484 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    all i know is that we have to go 3-1 to have a chance, but may need to go 4-0 because of the tie-break situation. unfortunately, most of our losses have come to AFC teams, and that is what essnetially is the tie break. gotta get hot. at least our schedule isnt impossible. but even so, dont you want to win the hard games? I know i do. shows the true character of a team. when we have won championships, we have beaten the good teams in the regular season. not this year
  20. BPF

    BPF Rookie

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    I think what PATRIOTSFANINPA is trying to say is that if the Pats simply worry about their four games and win out, and let the chips fall where they may, the more likely scenario, as history has pointed out, is that they will be in the fantastic tournament that is the NFL playoffs.

    Also, if Baltimore wins out with that schedule they deserve to be in the playoffs. I don't see it happening, especially with a rookie QB, but if they do it will be impressive. I actually think they will go 1-3 down the stretch here in December, call it a hunch that they have a December swoon.
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