Here is an interesting number-crunching site that does game simulations and playoff scenarios. NFL Playoff Picture - Sports Club Stats I'm not necessarily a stat geek, but we have debated at length how "done" we are after tough losses. When you scroll over a team name you see how the odds of making the playoffs has changed with each week of play. Click on it and you get the detailed info. There are two ways the odds are calculated- one called 50/50 in which each game is considered a coin toss. In that scenario, the odds are 30.4% for the Patriots to make the playoffs, but a 97.7% chance if we go 4-0 from now on, and a respectable 72.9% chance if we go 3-1. The other way of calculation, called weighted (click at the top) takes into account home/away, strength of opponent, recent game trends, etc. and is probably more accurate. We are apparently badly hurt by the easy schedules of many of the teams we are in competition with for playoff spots. The overall odds drop to 18.7%, and "only" an 81.9% chance of making the playoffs even with a 4-0 finish. It makes you sick to compare the odds with top teams in awful divisions like Denver and Arizona. It's also revealing to see how much one loss can hurt- our playoff odds dropped from 47% to 19% due to the Pittsburgh game alone.