Objectively, it's edge to Denver...

[oldrover]

Denver rushing vs NE run D... Denver
Denver passing vs NE pass D... Denver
NE rushing vs Denver rush D... Denver
NE passing vs Denver pass D... New England

HFA... Denver
Bye week... Denver
Experience... NE

That's a lot to overcome.

 

[T-ShirtDynasty]

Absolutely, it's going to be a challenge and it always is in Dever. Offensively, if we play the Donks like we played the Jags, we're going home unhappy. The boys have their work cut out for them.

 

[Bella*chick]

Yup, toughest game of the year, no doubt.

However, on paper we should have been smoked by the Colts last year. On paper, we shouldn't have done alot of the things we have done.

 

[PatsFan24]

and dont forget this stuff has happened before where the patriots lost a reagular season game to a team then beat them in the post season. remember the steelers last year, pats got crushed in that halloween game and won in the playoffs. and against the rams in 2001, lost at home and beat them in the super bowl

 

[Big_Os_Hometown]

Special Teams- Patriots

that should help

 

[dryheat44]

Special Teams- Patriots

that should help

Coaching Edge - Pats

However, the Broncos have probably already been preparing for the Patriots all week, so they'll definitely be able to cover more ground in preparations.

 

[sarge]

I definately agree. Advantage definately goes to the Broncos. I believe our run D is light years ahead of where it was in our earlier meeting. The presence of Seymour alone makes a huge difference. I also know our pass defense is way ahead of where it was due mainly to replacing Starks with Hobbs and Hawkins at safety over whoever it was that week. But that will be tested for real against the Broncos.

If we lose, I will be disapointed. But I will be ok with it. Basically because of the following

Our team has had 3 Superbowl titles in the last 4 years
They own the longest regular season winning streak.(18)
They own the longest post season winning streak.(10)
They own the longest winning streak (21).
There 10-0 record against opponents with atleast 10 wins in the 2003 season has never been duplicated.
Last seasons post season run against the Colts Steelers and Eagles was the most difficult (opponent games won total) by any Superbowl winner.

This team has given us a lot. If the above is all we get, I know I can live with it.

Of course I am not above getting some more ;-)

 

[BelichickFan]

Denver rushing vs NE run D... Denver

No. Denver has averaged 3.9 YPC since Week 9. We haven't given up anything on the ground for a couple of months.

Denver passing vs NE pass D... Denver

If it's close, maybe. If we can get a 7 point lead and be stopping their run, Plummer isn't a threat if we know he's passing. Remember, Denver doesn't have a real #3 WR and that's where we get in the most trouble.

NE rushing vs Denver rush D... Denver

We need to run better but Denver is allowing 4.0 YPC. Compared to the Patriots allowing 3.6.

 

[Pat the Pats Fan]

This to me is BIG. The last time Denver won a playoff game was when they won the super bowl. The last two years, they have been summarily dismissed in the opening round.

 

[Bella*chick]

This to me is BIG. The last time Denver won a playoff game was when they won the super bowl. The last two years, they have been summarily dismissed in the opening round.

Pat, do you remember whether they were wildcard both times? I know they lost huge to Indy both times...were they on the road?

 

[kcvet]

Yup, toughest game of the year, no doubt.

However, on paper we should have been smoked by the Colts last year. On paper, we shouldn't have done alot of the things we have done.

paper dosent play the game. it reports it. under dogs on paper have come out the winner. want paper??? go to the can.

 

[oldrover]

Pat, do you remember whether they were wildcard both times? I know they lost huge to Indy both times...were they on the road?

Yes, they were.

 

[bigsid05]

Yes, they were on the road as the WC.

 

[Pat the Pats Fan]

Yes, they were on the road as the WC.

What he said....;-)

 

[Bella*chick]

Thanks guys. I thought that was what happened, but I was unsure.

Both those games were utter shellackings, as I recall, which set up the media frenzy about how the Colts would dismantle us. Yeah, it's all coming back now.

 

[sieglo]

Denver's biggest advantage is the location. I would say that Invesco at Mile High gives the greatest home field advantage in the NFL.

There are two Pats questions for the game. One, can we get Dillon going so we don't have a one-dimensional offense (if we rely on Faulk to carry too much, he WILL fumble). Two, will Bruschi be back to solidify the run defense and close gaps against Denver's zone running scheme.

 

[mgteich]

Basically the betters are calling this an even game, except for home field advantage.

Denver's biggest advantage is the location. I would say that Invesco at Mile High gives the greatest home field advantage in the NFL.

There are two Pats questions for the game. One, can we get Dillon going so we don't have a one-dimensional offense (if we rely on Faulk to carry too much, he WILL fumble). Two, will Bruschi be back to solidify the run defense and close gaps against Denver's zone running scheme.

 

[kcvet]

Pat, do you remember whether they were wildcard both times? I know they lost huge to Indy both times...were they on the road?

yes i think they were on the road 1st round. i dont think the donks have had a bye and home field since elway. and its eatin em up.

 

[Ring 6]

Denver rushing vs NE run D... Denver
Denver passing vs NE pass D... Denver
NE rushing vs Denver rush D... Denver
NE passing vs Denver pass D... New England

HFA... Denver
Bye week... Denver
Experience... NE

That's a lot to overcome.

I definitely disagee that Denver run vs NE run D is an advantage to Denver.
Our run D has been the best in the NFL the last 2 months, maybe the best the NFL has seen in years.
In the game we played, but for one long play, Denver averaged just 3.3 yards per carry. Sure, they got the long run, you cant ignore it, but if our D has only imporved enough to not give that up, and no more, they dont have a run advantage. Seymour, Bruschi, Hawkins and Hobbs were not playing in that game. (The long run went right up the middle, where Bruschi, Vrabel and Hawkins were not)

As far as Denver pass O vs NE pass D, a lot depends on the run matchup. Denver puts a lot of prioirity in throwing off being set up by the run. If they cannot run well, that shifts to our advantage as well.

I think player by player, its actually slight advantage Pats.

Outside of that, no doubt playoff experience, preparation and coaching swings it our way.

The biggest obstacles are home field, and the bye week, both of which have proven substantial in playoff history.

To me it comes down to whether BBs gameplan and the teams ability to play its best in a big game can overcome the homefield and bye week advantages.

 

[JoeSixPat]

Edges in passing and running and defense are cumulative over the course of the season against other opponents

Ultimately the game will be decided by strategy and counterstrategy of the coaches, and the execution of the players.

Give the edge to the Patriots in terms of strategy and adjustment, however Shanahan might be second best in the league in my mind at adjusting in the game.

It then comes down to execution. Against the Jags the Pats did not execute well in the first half.

That will cost them the game against Denver. But player execution will ultimately decide this game and I'm confident the Pats can play mistake free ball for 60 minutes.