Now who is made of glass? - Health of RBs in 1st round

[Deus Irae]

Get back to me when Maroney can carry LT's jock.

Given that Maroney's too busy carrying the football for a better average than LDT, perhaps LDT can carry Maroney's jock.

 

[Oswlek]

Get back to me when Maroney can carry LT's jock.

The point is (and I disagree with it, but I think it is partly in jest) that Maroney has been the better RB just in 2007. I don't see why a case couldn't be made for that point. Obviously it could be easily countered by pointing out the passing offenses for each team, but the point still could be made.

But making decisions based on just this year for LdT is actually more reasonable than you claiming to know how good Maroney is or will be. The guy is extremely talented and he is still quite young. Most forget that he is two years younger than Addai. I would have to believe that 2009 Maroney will be better than 2007 Addai.

Frankly, I will make a wager for someone to hold me to. I will bet that not only does NE not draft a RB early next year, I bet that - barring major injury of course - Maroney signs his second contract with NE and that he is clearly a top 5 back in the league by 2009.

 

[Oswlek]

That is not a safe conclusion whatsoever. Take a look at last year's YPC numbers for Maroney. They went down all year long. His playoff numbers were terrible. If you would have taken his 1st 9 game numbers last year and tried to extrapolate them through the full season, you would have missed terribly. He struggled the more he got the ball.

This is not an accurate statment at all. Maroney was clealry hurt pretty badly last year. Like I said, if he continues to get hurt every year, he will fall by the wayside. If he stays healthy there is every reason to believe that he will be a very good to great back.

 

[iapatsfan]

The point is (and I disagree with it, but I think it is partly in jest) that Maroney has been the better RB just in 2007. I don't see why a case couldn't be made for that point. Obviously it could be easily countered by pointing out the passing offenses for each team, but the point still could be made.

But making decisions based on just this year for LdT is actually more reasonable than you claiming to know how good Maroney is or will be. The guy is extremely talented and he is still quite young. Most forget that he is two years younger than Addai. I would have to believe that 2009 Maroney will be better than 2007 Addai.

Frankly, I will make a wager for someone to hold me to. I will bet that not only does NE not draft a RB early next year, I bet that - barring major injury of course - Maroney signs his second contract with NE and that he is clearly a top 5 back in the league by 2009.

This year, LT is only a better back if the only stat you use is YPC. If you look at carries, rushing yds, tds or receptions, it's not even close. Please don't try and make this argument.

 

[Deus Irae]

This year, LT is only a better back if the only stat you use is YPC. If you look at carries, rushing yds, tds or receptions, it's not even close. Please don't try and make this argument.

Wait..... are you trying to claim that number of carries makes a running back better?

Seriously? So, Jerome Bettis and Curtis Martin are better backs than Barry Sanders and Jim Brown?

Wait! Marshall Faulk had more receptions and touchdowns than Sanders, and more catches and rushes than Brown. So he must be better than Sanders and Brown too, right?

 

[iapatsfan]

Wait..... are you trying to claim that number of carries makes a running back better?

Seriously?

Not by itself. However, it does go to show reliability, which is an important variable when assessing a RB's value.

 

[Oswlek]

This year, LT is only a better back if the only stat you use is YPC. If you look at carries, rushing yds, tds or receptions, it's not even close. Please don't try and make this argument.

Did you read what I wrote? I said I disagreed with it, but the case could be made.

Frankly, you have done little other than point at anecdotal "dancing" and mention the absence of TDs to make your case, neither of which being all that persuasive.

Just admit that when healthy the kid looks excellent and only time will tell if he can stay that way. Again, there is nothing else that can be said.

 

[Oswlek]

Not by itself. However, it does go to show reliability, which is an important variable when assessing a RB's value.

It is indisputable that Maroney's carries have been held down by missing a couple games (not a good sign) but just as much by NE jumping out to big leads. Why beat the hell out of your best RB when you don't have to?

 

[iapatsfan]

Did you read what I wrote? I said I disagreed with it, but the case could be made.

Frankly, you have done little other than point at anecdotal "dancing" and mention the absence of TDs to make your case, neither of which being all that persuasive.

Just admit that when healthy the kid looks excellent and only time will tell if he can stay that way. Again, there is nothing else that can be said.

1st - That case cannot be made by a sane person.
2nd - As I said before, reliability is an important variable when assessing a RB's value. I would rate him very low in that category.

 

[Oswlek]

1st - That case cannot be made by a sane person.
2nd - As I said before, reliability is an important variable when assessing a RB's value. I would rate him very low in that category.

See, with regard to #1, you are factoring in LdT's prior year performance. Even if you don't admit to it, you absolutely are because he hasn't been impressive at all this seasom.

I agree that Maroney needs to shed the "injury-prone" label, but you act as if it is a forgone conclusion that he never will.

BTW, I want to go back to these posts:

Because when you don't get the ball that often, YPC is a useless stat. LT's only at 4.2 YPC. Maybe SD will make a trade. Please don't use useless stats as the basis for your argument.

Not at all. Again, you are misunderstanding statistics. It is only useless if there is something that indicates future carries wouldn't yield similar results. Considering that Maroney's longest carry is only 19 yards, the only safe conclusion is that he will continue to put up similar numbers.

Sample size issues only exist if there is either

a) some skewed results that drag the average in one direction or another

or

b) no prior sample to derive any data from

A) does not exist and Maroney has last year where he ran for nearly as many ypc with virtually no passing offense to lean on.

That is not a safe conclusion whatsoever. Take a look at last year's YPC numbers for Maroney. They went down all year long. His playoff numbers were terrible. If you would have taken his 1st 9 game numbers last year and tried to extrapolate them through the full season, you would have missed terribly. He struggled the more he got the ball.

I just realize what was so fishy when I first read your statements. You counter the ypc figure by pointing out that the issue of sample size. Then, in your response to my counterpoint, you turn around and restrict the sample size even smaller and point to that smaller sample as if that was the "true" Maroney; as if all the other data which counters it (which it all does) is less meaningful than that one piece.

I find that amusing.

 

[AzPatsFan]

Parcell's said it best last night on the ESPN gossip hour, you DO NOT invest 10's of millions of dollars on RBs with an average shelf life of 4 years.

Borg,

I will resubmit my previous post amplifying what the Tuna had to say on RBs.

But there is a famous quote attributed to a HOF coach who first saw the T formation that destroyed an NFL opponent 73-0. You are going to kill your HBs, exclaimed the coach.

The response was " They were expendable".

This quote was adopted as the motto of thre PT torpedo boats in WWII, and became the title of a John Wayne wartime movie.

"Only truly stupid teams or clubs ready to win a Super bowl would spend "big money" in the tens of millions on a "disposable product" like a RB." a quote attributed to the Tuna prior to the 49er Seahawk game.

Chris Berman rolled the "disposable product" term around; aghast that Tuna was so brutally honest.

Paraphrasing Tuna said "It's Much better to draft ten year players than 4 year players. Tuna pointed out that most RB careers are but four years long. By contrast the Seahawks left tackle he used as an example, will play ten plus years and make merely good RBs into great ones".

The Tuna said smart Teams don't want to and don't have to tie up big money in RBs. He said the Pats and Broncs won multiple Superbowls this past decade with merely good RBs that gained over a 1000 yards per year, behind good lines. And these successful teams used lots of RBs.

The Pats, for example, "the Team of the Decade" in Tuna's words, have used Antowain Smith, Corey Dillon, Kevin Faulk, Laurence Maroney and Sammy Morris and won multiple Lombardis. He also pointed out that Denver also won multiple Superbowls with T Davis, Mike Anderson, Clinton Portis and a host of other RBs.

Tuna maintained that "Good organizations don't waste money orvery high picks on RBs; they spend it on long term players and end up with a greater number of better players and more talented Teams".



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