Now that we see Gronks #'s..what will Hernandez get?

[mgteich]

The presence of Lloyd and Gaffney may reduce the opportunties that Hernandez has in 2012. Also, we are hoping that there will be at least a little reduction in the number of pass attempts. I'm NOT saying that Hernandez won't be very valuable to us, but he may be seen to be more valuable elsewhere (as you say, this is probably a mistake). Is it just possible that others may see Hernandez as a poor man's Gonzalez or Gates?

In any case, I can see Hernandez replacing Welker as a high-price receiver for us in 2014. As patriot fans, we need to see Welker, Gronk, Hernandez, Lloyd and Gaffney as receivers, and ignore the fact that the league splits them into WR's and TE's. Our budget should be across both "positions". IMHO, blocking TE's go under the OL budget. In this case, it seems that we are lucky that we can use the franchise TE tag for Hernandez if we need to. But, make no mistake, that is dangerous strategy. If he is worth considerably more, he could sit out or threaten to sit out. I have confidence that team will work it all out.

I think "2nd string" is misleading in this case, because it implies he's behind somebody. Hernandez played 77% of the offensive snaps last year, despite missing 2 games with injuries. When a guy is such an integral part of your starting offense, I'm not sure it matters that somebody else has the same job title. That's an interesting angle. It's certainly possible, but Hernandez still gets plenty of opportunities to put up numbers here, plus he's spared a lot of blocking responsibilities. Having the prototype classic TE in Gronk lets the Pats get creative in playing to AHern's strengths. I guess we'll just have to wait and see, and cross a lot of fingers. (And hope that people like Branch and Gaffney are in his ear about how not-green the grass is elsewhere!)

 

[Ring 6]

On about 25-30 teams, Hernandez is a #1 TE.

On many of them, he's the featured offensive weapon.

Hernandez is a nice player who helps the team create a unique scheme, but this appears to be the first of what will no doubt be 100s of posts overrating him.

 

[patchick]

Also, we are hoping that there will be at least a little reduction in the number of pass attempts.

Personally, I'm hoping for an increase in the number of pass plays. Also, a decrease in the percentage of pass plays.

 

[patchick]

Hernandez is a nice player who helps the team create a unique scheme, but this appears to be the first of what will no doubt be 100s of posts overrating him.

Even if that's true, I suspect that at least a couple of other NFL teams will "overrate" him similarly. (79 receptions and 910 yards in 14 games will tend to do that.)

Since this thread is about a contract projection, I think it makes sense to think of Hernandez as a guy who would be the #1 FA at his position if he were to hit the open market.

 

[Ring 6]

Even if that's true, I suspect that at least a couple of other NFL teams will "overrate" him similarly. (79 receptions and 910 yards in 14 games will tend to do that.)

Since this thread is about a contract projection, I think it makes sense to think of Hernandez as a guy who would be the #1 FA at his position if he were to hit the open market.

I'm not sure that I agree. He isn't really a TE. He cannot play true TE on the los and block.
Really HBack is his best description, but he is also part WR.
I don't think 79-910 are the kind of numbers that make someone a top FA target. There are many receivers getting that, and most of them don't have Tom Brady and the 2nd most productive passing offense around them.

 

[FoxboroFlyer]

I'm not sure that I agree. He isn't really a TE. He cannot play true TE on the los and block.
Really HBack is his best description, but he is also part WR.
I don't think 79-910 are the kind of numbers that make someone a top FA target. There are many receivers getting that, and most of them don't have Tom Brady and the 2nd most productive passing offense around them.

Sure there are plenty of wr's getting those numbers...but they aren't the 3rd option in their teams passing game either.

 

[patchick]

I'm not sure that I agree. He isn't really a TE. He cannot play true TE on the los and block.
Really HBack is his best description, but he is also part WR.
I don't think 79-910 are the kind of numbers that make someone a top FA target. There are many receivers getting that, and most of them don't have Tom Brady and the 2nd most productive passing offense around them.

Well, those 79 receptions did rank Hernandez #15 in the NFL, despite missing 2 games. But even if you say he's not an elite WR or an elite TE, that doesn't mean he won't be perceived as an elite FA.

The fact that Hernandez doesn't fit a classic positional job description shouldn't be huge negative in the marketplace as long as players like him and Jimmy Graham continue to cause mismatch nightmares. If anything, it might make the H-back chimeras the flavor of the week, with plenty of copycat teams wanting to leap in.

 

[ausbacker]

Hernandez is a nice player who helps the team create a unique scheme, but this appears to be the first of what will no doubt be 100s of posts overrating him.

I fail to see how performance comparisons are a basis for overrating a player. Sure he plays as a H-Back but you still have to put the numbers on the board. What other TE's can play from the run formation and provide solid rushing capabilities as a wrinkle to the O?

Call it as it is Andy. Hernandez is a hell of a player and incredibly versatile. We're lucky to have him.

 

[tobias funke]

My gut feeling is that it's 60/40 towards Aaron being on the team after 2015.

If he stays healthy and the contracts are structured well, he could easily outlast Brady's remaining Patriot years.

 

[patman52]

I see Henandez at about 75% of Gronk.

6 years 42 mill extension, this allows us to spread the cap hit over 8 years by using the same two tier structure as Gronk, with the bigger annual paydays 2 years down the line when the cap goes up.

He is still only 22 YO, maybe he wants something two years shorter so that he will be a FA at 28, so maybe 4 and 25 mill, put 8 mill in his pocket now will probably sound good to a 22YO bring home about 1/4 mill a year as a forth rd choice.

 

[stinebot]

Amongst Tight Ends Hernandez was ranked;

4th in receiving yards,
4th in receiving TD's,
5th in receiving first downs, &
5th in receptions.

I'd say he'd be a #1 Tight End on 28-30 teams.

But on every team that's not NE he would not have Brady throwing him the ball. He would not have Gronk/Welker and now add in Lloyd/Gaffney to also attract the defense's attention.

I'm not saying he would fail with other teams, but he also has to realize that on another team, while he may be the #1 TE his numbers would likely drop from what they are with the Pats. When the time comes I hope he stays here, but everyone has to do what they think will work out best. For Hernandez that might be #1 TE money on a crappy team. Or it might be slightly less money on a perennial winner. We will see.

 

[Ring 6]

I fail to see how performance comparisons are a basis for overrating a player. Sure he plays as a H-Back but you still have to put the numbers on the board. What other TE's can play from the run formation and provide solid rushing capabilities as a wrinkle to the O?

Call it as it is Andy. Hernandez is a hell of a player and incredibly versatile. We're lucky to have him.

Sure he is a good player. But the post I was referring to certainly overrated him.

 

[mayoclinic]

Since this thread is about a contract projection, I think it makes sense to think of Hernandez as a guy who would be the #1 FA at his position if he were to hit the open market.

If neither gets an extension or the franchise tag, Jermichael Finley and Hernandez would both be FAs in 2014. Which do you think would be rated more highly by other teams? Jimmy Graham will also be a FA in 2014, but I doubt he hits the open market.

 

[Schmo]

AH is as much a backup to Gronk as Ty Warren was to Seymour. He'll get paid, just not Gronk #'s. 4yr/24m or 5yr/30m extension should happen either this offseason or next.

As far as Welker, I see a year-to-year contract battle until he starts to decline. By that time the Pats will be able to find a replacement for him in either scheme or personnel. I hate to say it, but Welker's the one that could very well end up getting screwed in order to keep this team at the top. He'll be the one that has to choose between $ and playing for a winner, not AH.