Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by Brady_to_Moss, Jun 8, 2012.
Throw me some numbers. What do you think he will get in his next deal?
It seems pretty simple:
1. AHern will get less than Gronk. That's a given. Gronk's contract is worth somewhere in the $7-9M/year range depending on how you do the math, how many years he plays, etc.
2. The market for AHern is probably somewhere around $6-8M/year. Jermichael Finley is getting $14M/2 years currently.
3. The franchise tag for TE's is currently set at $5.5M. That will go up, but will probably not reach more than about $7M by 2014.
My guess is that if Hernandez is not willing to sign a long term extension somewhere in the $6-7M/year range, then he will likely get the franchise tag in 2014.
I just hope the pats don't see him as expendable. Because he opens it up for everyone..largely Gronk on the other side..
offer him a 5 year 24mm extension next season with like 13 guaranteed
Not a bad payday for #2 TE
On about 25-30 teams, Hernandez is a #1 TE.
On many of them, he's the featured offensive weapon.
His production for the Pats is probably better than a lot of #1 TE's
He probably wouldn't lose out much statistically, while still being able to get a decent payday.
Amongst Tight Ends Hernandez was ranked;
4th in receiving yards,
4th in receiving TD's,
5th in receiving first downs, &
5th in receptions.
I'd say he'd be a #1 Tight End on 28-30 teams.
That's what i am afraid of. He could/will want #1 money. You can't give that to two TE's...my biggest fear is losing him...
I'm not concerned. The Patriots pay players. I've no idea where the misconception comes that they're cheap because they are not.
If Hernandez is smart he'll stay with the Patriots. Making money is nice but being on a perennial contender is another thing all together. I'm sure a reasonable middle ground will be found.
They do pay...but paying players at the same position top $$...
I really like the guy, but I think he'll want to get out from Gronk's shadow and be the #1 weapon somewhere else. I really hope I am wrong, I love watching him play for our team.
Good players get paid. If Hernandez value doesn't meet the value assigned to him by the Patriots he won't be here. It's not something I'll lose sleep over.
BB has been searching endlessly for the perfect TE.
It has always been his "white whale".
No way he lets Ahern get away...even at the expense of maybe losing another guy that we don't want to see go.
You simply can not understate the value in mismatches that these 2 te's create.
Imo they will have much more value than any wr on the roster.
Put the money in the TE's, and revert to the SB days of average wr's at reasonable salaries.
My fears as well.
Having said that, he does still, from time to time, have issues with the dropsies. Correct me if I'm wrong, but on that last superbowl drive, he dropped a makeable catch up the middle, though Brady's throw was off.
He found his perfect TE in Gronk. Hard to imagine any team paying close to 7M per year (which is where Hernandez probably fits) for their 2nd string tight end.
Hernandez is far from the prototypical tight end though. So he could be viewed by the team more as a WR, and some of the money used for that position could be used to lock him up.
Once Welker's tag is off the books, Lloyd is tops there at 4M per yr. Then I think Slater is second... So Hernandez could very easily take a piece of that cake.
Like you said the mismatches he can create are special, so ultimately I think it will be Hernandez signing long term after this season and Welker walking, or taking substantially less.
Much like the Patriots have redefined the slot reciever position, with Hernandez they are redefining the h-back/TE/fullback position. While Gronk is a TE in the classic sense, Hernandez is a hybrid. If he is a starter and he is productive he deserves as much as any other starter wether he be a TE or wide receiver.
True about Gronk being the perfect te, but Ahern complements Gronk, so well that I kind of consider him as extension of Rob.
Look at it this way, so many teams are wasting big money on the RB position in a league that is all but abandoned the run. We all know the Pats are never going to shell out any sort of large contract to a RB, as long as TB is here.
It's just one way to create that extra cash to have the luxury to sign Hernandez.
Pats are smart to lock up gronk before Hernendez.
It lowers AHerns negotiating chips.
If he played WR or RB where #1 money is $10 million or more, I would agree with you, but the TE position is a comparatively cheap position for Pro Bowl talent and with the Gronk extension as the baseline, it does not project to get comparatively too much more expensive over the next couple of years.
I think that the Patriots would be willing to have two tight ends whose salary cap charges place them in the franchise tag calculation as long as the production is there. I think the Patriots would prefer a contract structure that gives them a fairly cheap intermediate term out in case production falls off for whatever reason, but they often are willing to pay for a second contract when the talent is elite/very hard to replace.
I think "2nd string" is misleading in this case, because it implies he's behind somebody. Hernandez played 77% of the offensive snaps last year, despite missing 2 games with injuries. When a guy is such an integral part of your starting offense, I'm not sure it matters that somebody else has the same job title.
That's an interesting angle. It's certainly possible, but Hernandez still gets plenty of opportunities to put up numbers here, plus he's spared a lot of blocking responsibilities. Having the prototype classic TE in Gronk lets the Pats get creative in playing to AHern's strengths. I guess we'll just have to wait and see, and cross a lot of fingers. (And hope that people like Branch and Gaffney are in his ear about how not-green the grass is elsewhere!)
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