Nolan Nawrocki PFW 4/10 Mock Draft

[mayoclinic]

A new one rounder from Pro Football Weekly:

NFL Draft - NFL draft preview and analysis from Pro Football Weekly

My initial thought is that either Nawrocki knows something or he's smoking something: Knowshon Moreno at #4 to Seattle and Beanie Wells falling to 31? Aaron Curry dropping to #8? Mark Sanchez falling to #12 and BJ Raji to #15? Brian Robiskie going to the Colts at #27 (higher in the draft than Wells)? Everette Brown falling to 29?

And he has the Pats taking Brandon Pettigrew at #23 when Everette Brown, Connor Barwin, Clay Matthews, William Beatty, Eben Britton, ZIggy Hood and Jarron Gilbert are all on the board.

If Raji falls to New Orleans at #14 I would trade #23 and #58 to move up for him. Then I'd hope for Barwin or one of the other 3-4 OLBs at 34, and take a safety at 47.

 

[slash83]

Id be bummed if the Pats go offense with the 23rd pick, especially a TE.

 

[bucky]

And he has the Pats taking Brandon Pettigrew at #23 when Everette Brown, Connor Barwin, Clay Matthews, William Beatty, Eben Britton, ZIggy Hood and Jarron Gilbert are all on the board.

I can't really comment on the draft overall. But I will say that if these are the choices at 23, I would go with Pettigrew as well. The reason?

OL is not good value for the Pats in round 1. Ziggy, I don't believe can play 2-gap DE. Gilbert is boom or bust, which takes him out of consideration at 23. Barwin I won't comment on because it's been beaten to death. Mathews might well be the pick, but I'm just skeptical about all 3 USC LBs. Brown is a very intriguing choice and might be tough to pass up. But being a conversion project, he carries higher risk than Pettigrew.

I would think, based on the way the board is, the Pats could be feeling good about landing a defensive front seven player at 34 and a DB at 47

 

[VJCPatriot]

Why do you want to draft a clone of Baker when you already have him on the roster? Given that, how in any way shape or form is that the optimal use for a 1st round pick? I think you're just getting too trigger shy. You've got to draft for greatness at least once when you have this many draft picks to spend. The guy who has that high upside AND ability to play tight end is Connor Barwin. People keep forgetting that, if BB is targeting a tight end, why not get a guy who can play both TE and Defense?

The other thing I'd like to note is that Clay Matthews is a 1 year STARTER. Connor Barwin also started for 1 year on defense and 3 years on offense. So how is Matthews any SAFER than Barwin? He's not. People are just comforted by his name and 'bloodlines'.

 

[Water Boy]

A new one rounder from Pro Football Weekly:

NFL Draft - NFL draft preview and analysis from Pro Football Weekly

My initial thought is that either Nawrocki knows something or he's smoking something:
Knowshon Moreno at #4 to Seattle and Beanie Wells falling to 31? Aaron Curry dropping to #8? Mark Sanchez falling to #12 and BJ Raji to #15? Brian Robiskie going to the Colts at #27 (higher in the draft than Wells)? Everette Brown falling to 29?

I'm really getting the feeling that Round 1 in this draft is full of JAGs and potential busts. The fact that players are all over the board in round 1 highlights how few blue chippers there really are.

If Raji falls to New Orleans at #14 I would trade #23 and #58 to move up for him. Then I'd hope for Barwin or one of the other 3-4 OLBs at 34, and take a safety at 47.

I agree, but I don't think he'll drop to 14.

 

[mayoclinic]

I'm really getting the feeling that Round 1 in this draft is full of JAGs and potential busts. The fact that players are all over the board in round 1 highlights how few blue chippers there really are.

I'm not sure I would be quite so pessimistic. I think there's tremendous talent through the top 50 of this draft, much more so than in previous years. There's just very little separation, so it's hard to come up with a consensus first round group. Any list from 30-50 compares reasonably well with the players from 10-30. Maybe they are not true "blue chippers" but JAGs seems a bit harsh.

Last year a lot of people were bemoaning how week the top of the draft was in a year in which we had the #7 pick. But the rookie crop was one of the strongest in memory. In contrast, 2006, which was considered a banner year, has produced very little.

I'm sure the FO can sort out the nuggets from the JAGs.

I agree, but I don't think he'll drop to 14.

I don't think he will either, but stranger things have happened. Mel Kiper currently has Malcolm Jenkins as his #24 prospect, and Jenkins was top 5 a few months ago. He's a high character kid with a tremendous track record of success whose major question is his timed speed.

 

[BPF]

A new one rounder from Pro Football Weekly:

NFL Draft - NFL draft preview and analysis from Pro Football Weekly

My initial thought is that either Nawrocki knows something or he's smoking something: Knowshon Moreno at #4 to Seattle and Beanie Wells falling to 31? Aaron Curry dropping to #8? Mark Sanchez falling to #12 and BJ Raji to #15? Brian Robiskie going to the Colts at #27 (higher in the draft than Wells)? Everette Brown falling to 29?

And he has the Pats taking Brandon Pettigrew at #23 when Everette Brown, Connor Barwin, Clay Matthews, William Beatty, Eben Britton, ZIggy Hood and Jarron Gilbert are all on the board.

If Raji falls to New Orleans at #14 I would trade #23 and #58 to move up for him. Then I'd hope for Barwin or one of the other 3-4 OLBs at 34, and take a safety at 47.

#14 is too high for Cushing and New Orleans would be a good trading partner since they only have 4 picks in this deep draft. They could slide down 9 spots and pick a LB at 23 which would be better value and also pick up a 2 in the process. I like the idea of Raji but I don't think you can target specific positions in RD 2 with the picks. You either move up and down the board and get specific players you think fit best or you stay put and pick the best available player regardless of position.

 

[mayoclinic]

#14 is too high for Cushing and New Orleans would be a good trading partner since they only have 4 picks in this deep draft. They could slide down 9 spots and pick a LB at 23 which would be better value and also pick up a 2 in the process. I like the idea of Raji but I don't think you can target specific positions in RD 2 with the picks. You either move up and down the board and get specific players you think fit best or you stay put and pick the best available player regardless of position.

I think that's certainly true. I was trying to indicate general tendencies. There are 3 or 4 very attractive safety prospects and several attractive OLB prospects, and they are both positions of need, so I don't think looking at those two positions is unreasonable. But obviously if someone more highly valued were available we would go that route.

 

[Revman]

Why would you trade up for Raji?. We have a very good NT already. Just sign Wilfork to an extension. Raji can't play end. I don't get that trade. I would rather see us stay at 23-grab Evander Hood-DE- then snag Larry English at 34. Two for one. Both would find roles as rookies-make contributions and be ready to start soon enough in case of injury or need.

 

[strongside]

I think the "pats never draft based on need" sentiment is so overplayed in the national media. I'm pretty sure Mayo was a need pick and so was Merriwether.

 

[PATSNUTme]

If BB thinks Pettigrew is the BVA, he'll do it. But I don't think he's going to pass on Matthews and let Mia take him.

 

[Brady'sButtBoy]

My bet is that the Pats try to trade down in (or even out of) the first round in exchange for another pick next year. Why? With so many talking heads acknowledging the lack of separation in talent after the first 8-12 players that there must be some truth to this idea.

A player very similar in talent to Pettigrew could easily come 10-20 spots later it appears. Heck, Barwin isn't even in this guy's first round. Several sources have noted it is a strong year for TE's so I do expect BB to pick one in the 2nd.


If someone 'special' to a certain team slides down into the 20's, I guess the Pat's pick could be had for not to a high a price - maybe a swap of a 3rd for the other team's 2nd in the 2010 draft.

The other obvious thing to consider is with this limited pool of difference makers and the Pats holding three 2nd's that the team would make a big move up into the first 8 - I just can't see for whom.

 

[BPF]

My bet is that the Pats try to trade down in (or even out of) the first round in exchange for another pick next year. Why? With so many talking heads acknowledging the lack of separation in talent after the first 8-12 players that there must be some truth to this idea.

A player very similar in talent to Pettigrew could easily come 10-20 spots later it appears. Heck, Barwin isn't even in this guy's first round. Several sources have noted it is a strong year for TE's so I do expect BB to pick one in the 2nd.


If someone 'special' to a certain team slides down into the 20's, I guess the Pat's pick could be had for not to a high a price - maybe a swap of a 3rd for the other team's 2nd in the 2010 draft.

The other obvious thing to consider is with this limited pool of difference makers and the Pats holding three 2nd's that the team would make a big move up into the first 8 - I just can't see for whom.

They could trade down but according to Mayock the sweet spot of RD 1 is around spot 22.

 

[DW Toys]

A new one rounder from Pro Football Weekly:

NFL Draft - NFL draft preview and analysis from Pro Football Weekly

My initial thought is that either Nawrocki knows something or he's smoking something: Knowshon Moreno at #4 to Seattle and Beanie Wells falling to 31? Aaron Curry dropping to #8? Mark Sanchez falling to #12 and BJ Raji to #15? Brian Robiskie going to the Colts at #27 (higher in the draft than Wells)? Everette Brown falling to 29?

And he has the Pats taking Brandon Pettigrew at #23 when Everette Brown, Connor Barwin, Clay Matthews, William Beatty, Eben Britton, ZIggy Hood and Jarron Gilbert are all on the board.

If Raji falls to New Orleans at #14 I would trade #23 and #58 to move up for him. Then I'd hope for Barwin or one of the other 3-4 OLBs at 34, and take a safety at 47.

I agree Mayo.. Did you see The NFL Network last night? They did a segment on the Seahawks draft war room and preparations. The GM actually said for one of his assistants to "post all of the other Mock Drafts out there and compare them to ours" as they are lining up their picks. So at the end of the day we have non-NFL payed Mock Draft posters influencing NFL teams draft boards. Amazing!He did let it escape they are looking for a CB over 6' tall.
DW Toys.

 

[SunnyDenmark]

I think the "pats never draft based on need" sentiment is so overplayed in the national media. I'm pretty sure Mayo was a need pick and so was Merriwether.

Agreed. As was also Mankins - who replaced the just departed Andruzzi. And could also make the same point for Mahroney as Dillon was about 31 at that point and had lots of wear and tear accumulated over the years. NE drafted Mahroney (although Dillon still on the roster) to groom as his replacement.

Sometimes the need is not just in the current year but for the following year. Thats the nice thing about BB's job security. He can be more long-sighted than most HC's in the league.

 

[mgteich]

And Warren. He was drafted because he was the last of the top DE's.

Agreed. As was also Mankins - who replaced the just departed Andruzzi. And could also make the same point for Mahroney as Dillon was about 31 at that point and had lots of wear and tear accumulated over the years. NE drafted Mahroney (although Dillon still on the roster) to groom as his replacement.

Sometimes the need is not just in the current year but for the following year. Thats the nice thing about BB's job security. He can be more long-sighted than most HC's in the league.

 

[AzPatsFan]

Why do you want to draft a clone of Baker when you already have him on the roster? Given that, how in any way shape or form is that the optimal use for a 1st round pick? I think you're just getting too trigger shy. You've got to draft for greatness at least once when you have this many draft picks to spend. The guy who has that high upside AND ability to play tight end is Connor Barwin. People keep forgetting that, if BB is targeting a tight end, why not get a guy who can play both TE and Defense?

The other thing I'd like to note is that Clay Matthews is a 1 year STARTER. Connor Barwin also started for 1 year on defense and 3 years on offense. So how is Matthews any SAFER than Barwin? He's not. People are just comforted by his name and 'bloodlines'.

Well said. More correctly, he is a half year starter. Matthews is very unlikely at #23.


Occasionally Belichick surprises people in his press conferences when he lapses philosophical about the game or its history Paraphrasing one such quote : "Most of all you have to make sure that you take someone who has a production history and will Play. Nothing damages a program more than a mistake in the first round. Other rounds are for gambles on greatness."

Elsewhere he said Teams pretty much conform tothe talent available. Teams take good players in the First. The potentially good players with a defect are available in the second round. In the third they return to selecting players at a lower level who can play.

By interpretation, He selects SAFE players who have a Production history with his first selection. He gambles on greatness on second round players
He takes solid contributors with a production history in the third round.

If you look at his drafting history:

He has never had a First Round bust.
He has had several second round busts, on gambles on greatness.
He has acquired quite a few good contributing players in the third, fourth round.

From that history he wasn't blowing smoke when he lapsed into one of his philosophical responses to a question in a press conference.

With that in mind, what does he do in this draft?

I think you are right. Guys with"potential" are not on his menu for first round picks. He wants players who have no questions and have production in their history. Besides Matthews, who else falls off his first round list, perhaps into the second? All the DE--> OLB conversion candidates? SILB projections like Sintim ?

 

[WaterfallJumper]

Wow, I wish I'd heard that press conference. Sounds excellent.

Watson, Meriweather, and Maroney are the least proven of his first-rounders. These are make or break seasons for them, I'd imagine. Not sure they fit the profile listed above, but let's assume that it's a correct profile and these are deviations.

Who, then, is the most proven and productive player likely to be available in the 20s? I'd have to say a guy like Moreno or English--Jenkins if he miraculously falls. Other than that, I don't see too many, to be honest. Laurinaitis, maybe? Chung, also, was ridiculously productive, but I see him as more of a second-rounder.

"Gambles for greatness," aside from being a great phrase, could steer us toward guys like Barwin or even Davis in the second. We'd have to hope they would turn out better than Bethel or Jackson, huh?

 

[Patriot Missile]

I'd be extremely disappointed if we passed on Everett Brown at 23. Disgusted actually.
Of course I've felt that way before and been pleasantly pleased the way things turned out.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

I'd be extremely disappointed if we passed on Everett Brown at 23. Disgusted actually.
Of course I've felt that way before and been pleasantly pleased the way things turned out.

I would be very happy if we passed on Brown. Most experts say is not the player Winbley was at the same stages of their career and Wimbley has not exactly torn up the NFL thus far.

Plus Brown does not play the run, which might cause BB to drop the kid from the draft baord.