No surprise: Belichick leads league trading down in the draft 73% of the time

Discussion in ' - Patriots Fan Forum' started by JoeSixPat, Apr 21, 2009.

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  1. JoeSixPat

    JoeSixPat Pro Bowl Player

    Although I've had a difficult time taking Peter King seriously since his bizarre coverage of the Pats in 2007/2008, there's an interesting, if not surprising stat in his latest MMQB

    Mark Sanchez, Daniel Snyder, Scott Pioli pivotal in NFL draft - Peter King -

    The stats show that over the last 5 years the Pats are one of the most active trading teams on draft weekend... and of those active teams, out of 11 trades Belichick has only traded up 3 times - a low amount of trades for teams in double digit trading figures, and the lowest percentage of all those teams as well.

    So not only can you expect Belichick to be active with trades during draft weekend (and given the number of picks, I'd expect more activity than ever this year) but expect that he'll trade back almost 3/4ths of the time.

    ... not that I'd rule out seeing him trade UP in the first round this year - I think everything depends on who he values and who's available and how much value he can get for trading back. With so many teams wanting to trade back this year, that may limit the value BB would get for trading back from 23 - and there may be good value available to trade up.

    But ultimately everything depends on who BB values and who is available.

    (Above the Stat of the Week is another interesting factoid - showing that in seasons in which the Patriots and Colts play each other, the NFL schedule makers favor that coming in sweeps week - again - no surprise)
    Last edited: Apr 21, 2009
  2. tombonneau

    tombonneau In the Starting Line-Up

    Ahh, now I understand your title .... when he makes a trade, 73% of the time Belichick trades down.

    So what were the trade ups? Ty Warren and Chad (puke) Jackson for sure. Did he also trade up for Branch. Who was the third?
  3. Palm Beach Pats Fan

    Palm Beach Pats Fan In the Starting Line-Up

    #12 Jersey

    When the trade-down brings a higher pick next year, I'd hardly call it a trade-down. It's just taking advantage of teams too stupid to realize that they are not going to get so much better in the current draft that losing a higher round pick next year won't matter. It ends up being a net negative for them and a net positive for the Patriots franchise.

    Flip-flop our third rounders if you throw in your #2 next year? Where do I sign!
  4. Synovia

    Synovia In the Starting Line-Up

    Yeah, I second that. Most of those "Trade downs" were really exchanges... down this year, up the next.
  5. jmt57

    jmt57 Moderator Staff Member Supporter

    So when the Pats traded #7 and #164 to the Saints for #10 and #78, was that considered to only be trading down (from 7 to 10) or was it also considered trading up (from 164 to 78)? I'm guessing that only the earlier draft picks were considered when compiling these stats.
  6. scout

    scout Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

    #15 Jersey

    Didn' he trade up for Grahm?
  7. JoeSixPat

    JoeSixPat Pro Bowl Player

    Yes - if folks were under the impression that Belichick or any other coach trades back in one draft in order to get a WORSE pick in future drafts, I guess they're in for a surprise.

    Typically, yes, Belichick and most coaches will trade back for what they deem to be more value in that year's or future year's drafts.

    I'm generally critical of Peter King but I'm not going to fault him for not illustrating the obvious.
  8. Fencer

    Fencer Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

    #12 Jersey

    Highest-ranking pick trades BB has been involved in with the Pats, from memory:

    Down for Mayo
    Up for Warren (trivially)
    Up for Graham
    Later (i.e., the next year) for Meriweather
    Later for Wilfork/Down then up for Wilson
    Up for Bethel
    Down then up for Light
  9. Pats726

    Pats726 Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

    NOt sure really what it all means...up...down...That he is active up or more important...but I disagree that trading for another pick another year is really trading down. Sloppy stats and misleading.. BUT that is OK..he is a wheeler dealer.
  10. JoeSixPat

    JoeSixPat Pro Bowl Player

    Well like it or not "trading up" and "trading down" are terms you're going to hear this weekend.

    But if Belichick trades #23 for say, #40 this weekend, if it makes everyone happy we can call that "trading up"

    Beyond that, it seems like some people are taking offense that Peter King - or anyone for that matter - would show statistics showing that Belichick tends to trade down.

    That's not a bad thing people... and no one suggested it was - and it should be common sense that when one does so they're getting something of value in return.
    Last edited: Apr 21, 2009
  11. jeffbiologist

    jeffbiologist Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

    The trick to trading down is continuing to find trading partners(suckers). I find it strange that there dont seem to be "favorite" trading partners, as I am sure most GMs look at BB like Red Aurbach. Under BB we have traded with the following:

    Miami, Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Cincy, Oak, SD, KC, Hou, Car, NO, SF, Chi, GB, Dal, Sea....did I leave anyone out??
  12. RayClay

    RayClay Hall of Fame Poster

    #75 Jersey

    Teams that want something will overpay. When in doubt, BB looks to make a profit.
  13. RayClay

    RayClay Hall of Fame Poster

    #75 Jersey

    I know he has a good relationship with Chicago. Ty Warren move up. Washington trade. Colvin (though that was straight FA).

    Like Auerbach, he probably likes to wait til they forget the last time they got screwed, though these things are usually win, win.
  14. Feep50

    Feep50 Third String But Playing on Special Teams

    BB is gonna pull a total "mind-scramble" and trade UP twice.....OT and CB!
  15. they don''t knwo what they're talking about........

    2001 - 39 to pitt for 50 and 112 (DN)
    2001 - 50 and 173 to det for 48 (UP)
    2001 - 69 to min for 86 and 119 (DN)
    2001 - 112 and 139 to SD for 96 (UP)
    2001 - 149 to det for 180 and 216 (DN)
    2002 - 32,96,234 to was for 21 (UP)
    2002 - 131,144 to den for 117 (UP)
    2003 - 14 and 193 to chi for 13 (UP)
    2003 - 41 and 75 to hou for 36 (UP)
    2003 - 50 and 120 to car for 45 (UP)
    2003 - 128 and 157 to den for 120 (UP)
    2003 -154 and 223 to ten for 164,201,243 (DN)
    2006 - 52 and 75 to GB for 36 (UP)

    9 up, 4 down

    I did not include the 2003(20) trade for a 2003 2nd rounder and a 2004 1st rounder because I don't believe that was a trade down if you get picks the following year
  16. JoeSixPat

    JoeSixPat Pro Bowl Player

    Well, whether Peter King knows what he talks about or not is probably worthy of its own thread - but I do know that when they cite trades "in the last 5 years" that figure probably doesn't include trades in 2001, 2002, and 2003 (if my second grade math teacher is to be trusted that is...)

    So apparently they've come up with 11 trades in the last 5 years wheras you've cited just one.

    So I'd say one of you is off with your math.
  17. BPF

    BPF In the Starting Line-Up

    I think when your picking close to the end of each round and/or don't have many picks ie flexibility that's what happens. We need to keep in mind that the Pats have been picking late in each round so trading back or out of rounds for higher picks the following year was good business because they didn't have many cards to play with so they could move up. You don't want to trade future picks and most teams don't value Pats picks as much as other teams because they know they'll more than likely be late 20's picks thus worth less value. Some comments from BB's presser the other day illustrate these facts and also show that this year things will probably be different:

    Last edited: Apr 22, 2009
  18. Pat the Pats Fan

    Pat the Pats Fan In the Starting Line-Up

    #50 Jersey

    We traded down with Baltimore a few years ago. They got one of our #1 in the current year and gave us their #2 in the current year and their #1 in the next year. And which player did Baltimore covet so much......Kyle Boller. Ravens fans are still grousing about that one......
  19. Fencer

    Fencer Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

    #12 Jersey

    Bumped for truth. :D
  20. VJCPatriot

    VJCPatriot Pro Bowl Player

    BB robbed Green Bay today. Traded a late 1st and a 5th for their high 2nd and two more 3rd round picks. That was classic BB horsetrading! :D
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