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No surprise: Belichick leads league trading down in the draft 73% of the time


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JoeSixPat

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Although I've had a difficult time taking Peter King seriously since his bizarre coverage of the Pats in 2007/2008, there's an interesting, if not surprising stat in his latest MMQB

Mark Sanchez, Daniel Snyder, Scott Pioli pivotal in NFL draft - Peter King - SI.com

The stats show that over the last 5 years the Pats are one of the most active trading teams on draft weekend... and of those active teams, out of 11 trades Belichick has only traded up 3 times - a low amount of trades for teams in double digit trading figures, and the lowest percentage of all those teams as well.

So not only can you expect Belichick to be active with trades during draft weekend (and given the number of picks, I'd expect more activity than ever this year) but expect that he'll trade back almost 3/4ths of the time.

... not that I'd rule out seeing him trade UP in the first round this year - I think everything depends on who he values and who's available and how much value he can get for trading back. With so many teams wanting to trade back this year, that may limit the value BB would get for trading back from 23 - and there may be good value available to trade up.

But ultimately everything depends on who BB values and who is available.

(Above the Stat of the Week is another interesting factoid - showing that in seasons in which the Patriots and Colts play each other, the NFL schedule makers favor that coming in sweeps week - again - no surprise)
 
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Although I've had a difficult time taking Peter King seriously since his bizarre coverage of the Pats in 2007/2008, there's an interesting, if not surprising stat in his latest MMQB

Mark Sanchez, Daniel Snyder, Scott Pioli pivotal in NFL draft - Peter King - SI.com

The stats show that over the last 5 years the Pats are one of the most active trading teams on draft weekend... and of those active teams, out of 11 trades Belichick has only traded up 3 times - a low amount of trades for teams in double digit trading figures, and the lowest percentage of all those teams as well.

So not only can you expect Belichick to be active with trades during draft weekend (and given the number of picks, I'd expect more activity than ever this year) but expect that he'll trade back almost 3/4ths of the time.

... not that I'd rule out seeing him trade UP in the first round this year - I think everything depends on who he values and who's available and how much value he can get for trading back. With so many teams wanting to trade back this year, that may limit the value BB would get for trading back from 23 - and there may be good value available to trade up.

But ultimately everything depends on who BB values and who is available.

Ahh, now I understand your title .... when he makes a trade, 73% of the time Belichick trades down.

So what were the trade ups? Ty Warren and Chad (puke) Jackson for sure. Did he also trade up for Branch. Who was the third?
 
When the trade-down brings a higher pick next year, I'd hardly call it a trade-down. It's just taking advantage of teams too stupid to realize that they are not going to get so much better in the current draft that losing a higher round pick next year won't matter. It ends up being a net negative for them and a net positive for the Patriots franchise.

Flip-flop our third rounders if you throw in your #2 next year? Where do I sign!
 
So when the Pats traded #7 and #164 to the Saints for #10 and #78, was that considered to only be trading down (from 7 to 10) or was it also considered trading up (from 164 to 78)? I'm guessing that only the earlier draft picks were considered when compiling these stats.
 
Didn' he trade up for Grahm?
 
When the trade-down brings a higher pick next year, I'd hardly call it a trade-down. It's just taking advantage of teams too stupid to realize that they are not going to get so much better in the current draft that losing a higher round pick next year won't matter. It ends up being a net negative for them and a net positive for the Patriots franchise.

Flip-flop our third rounders if you throw in your #2 next year? Where do I sign!

Yeah, I second that. Most of those "Trade downs" were really exchanges... down this year, up the next.

So when the Pats traded #7 and #164 to the Saints for #10 and #78, was that considered to only be trading down (from 7 to 10) or was it also considered trading up (from 164 to 78)? I'm guessing that only the earlier draft picks were considered when compiling these stats.


Yes - if folks were under the impression that Belichick or any other coach trades back in one draft in order to get a WORSE pick in future drafts, I guess they're in for a surprise.

Typically, yes, Belichick and most coaches will trade back for what they deem to be more value in that year's or future year's drafts.

I'm generally critical of Peter King but I'm not going to fault him for not illustrating the obvious.
 
Highest-ranking pick trades BB has been involved in with the Pats, from memory:

Down for Mayo
Up for Warren (trivially)
Up for Graham
Later (i.e., the next year) for Meriweather
Later for Wilfork/Down then up for Wilson
Up for Bethel
Down then up for Light
 
NOt sure really what it all means...up...down...That he is active up or down..is more important...but I disagree that trading for another pick another year is really trading down. Sloppy stats and misleading.. BUT that is OK..he is a wheeler dealer.
 
NOt sure really what it all means...up...down...That he is active up or down..is more important...but I disagree that trading for another pick another year is really trading down. Sloppy stats and misleading.. BUT that is OK..he is a wheeler dealer.


Well like it or not "trading up" and "trading down" are terms you're going to hear this weekend.

But if Belichick trades #23 for say, #40 this weekend, if it makes everyone happy we can call that "trading up"

Beyond that, it seems like some people are taking offense that Peter King - or anyone for that matter - would show statistics showing that Belichick tends to trade down.

That's not a bad thing people... and no one suggested it was - and it should be common sense that when one does so they're getting something of value in return.
 
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The trick to trading down is continuing to find trading partners(suckers). I find it strange that there dont seem to be "favorite" trading partners, as I am sure most GMs look at BB like Red Aurbach. Under BB we have traded with the following:

Miami, Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Cincy, Oak, SD, KC, Hou, Car, NO, SF, Chi, GB, Dal, Sea....did I leave anyone out??
 
Teams that want something will overpay. When in doubt, BB looks to make a profit.
 
The trick to trading down is continuing to find trading partners(suckers). I find it strange that there dont seem to be "favorite" trading partners, as I am sure most GMs look at BB like Red Aurbach. Under BB we have traded with the following:

Miami, Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Cincy, Oak, SD, KC, Hou, Car, NO, SF, Chi, GB, Dal, Sea....did I leave anyone out??

I know he has a good relationship with Chicago. Ty Warren move up. Washington trade. Colvin (though that was straight FA).

Like Auerbach, he probably likes to wait til they forget the last time they got screwed, though these things are usually win, win.
 
BB is gonna pull a total "mind-scramble" and trade UP twice.....OT and CB!
 
they don''t knwo what they're talking about........

2001 - 39 to pitt for 50 and 112 (DN)
2001 - 50 and 173 to det for 48 (UP)
2001 - 69 to min for 86 and 119 (DN)
2001 - 112 and 139 to SD for 96 (UP)
2001 - 149 to det for 180 and 216 (DN)
2002 - 32,96,234 to was for 21 (UP)
2002 - 131,144 to den for 117 (UP)
2003 - 14 and 193 to chi for 13 (UP)
2003 - 41 and 75 to hou for 36 (UP)
2003 - 50 and 120 to car for 45 (UP)
2003 - 128 and 157 to den for 120 (UP)
2003 -154 and 223 to ten for 164,201,243 (DN)
2006 - 52 and 75 to GB for 36 (UP)

9 up, 4 down

I did not include the 2003(20) trade for a 2003 2nd rounder and a 2004 1st rounder because I don't believe that was a trade down if you get picks the following year
 
they don''t knwo what they're talking about........

2001 - 39 to pitt for 50 and 112 (DN)
2001 - 50 and 173 to det for 48 (UP)
2001 - 69 to min for 86 and 119 (DN)
2001 - 112 and 139 to SD for 96 (UP)
2001 - 149 to det for 180 and 216 (DN)
2002 - 32,96,234 to was for 21 (UP)
2002 - 131,144 to den for 117 (UP)
2003 - 14 and 193 to chi for 13 (UP)
2003 - 41 and 75 to hou for 36 (UP)
2003 - 50 and 120 to car for 45 (UP)
2003 - 128 and 157 to den for 120 (UP)
2003 -154 and 223 to ten for 164,201,243 (DN)
2006 - 52 and 75 to GB for 36 (UP)

9 up, 4 down

I did not include the 2003(20) trade for a 2003 2nd rounder and a 2004 1st rounder because I don't believe that was a trade down if you get picks the following year

Well, whether Peter King knows what he talks about or not is probably worthy of its own thread - but I do know that when they cite trades "in the last 5 years" that figure probably doesn't include trades in 2001, 2002, and 2003 (if my second grade math teacher is to be trusted that is...)

So apparently they've come up with 11 trades in the last 5 years wheras you've cited just one.

So I'd say one of you is off with your math.
 
I think when your picking close to the end of each round and/or don't have many picks ie flexibility that's what happens. We need to keep in mind that the Pats have been picking late in each round so trading back or out of rounds for higher picks the following year was good business because they didn't have many cards to play with so they could move up. You don't want to trade future picks and most teams don't value Pats picks as much as other teams because they know they'll more than likely be late 20's picks thus worth less value. Some comments from BB's presser the other day illustrate these facts and also show that this year things will probably be different:

BB: " ...Last year, we went in with the 7th pick and 62nd pick and I felt, at that time, it would be hard to move very far from those two spots, and in fact, we didn’t. I think this year, if you go by the generic trade charts—the charts everyone uses or has access to—if you just do the numbers we could probably trade a combination of our picks in the first round and get up as high as 10. We already have three picks in the second round, so we could pick anywhere from the beginning of the round until the end of the round and then a couple more picks in the third, so I think it’s really important for us to know the value of the board all the way through those first 100 players and be able to know where the opportunities are or aren’t, and how we can make the most of them. Again, we don’t always have flexibility to trade because you need a partner on that, but I’m sure there will be some discussions there and there already have been with teams that see our multiple picks and have interest in acquiring two for one. We just have to see how all of that plays out, but I think it does give us a lot of flexibility and it changes our entry into the draft. It’s a lot different than what it was last year, as I said talking about the number 7 and 62 picks. The process started a few days after the draft last year. I think it’s always interesting to see how it goes from players who have never played football, like the Stephen Neals of the world, to college players who didn’t have too much production, like the Matt Cassels of the world, to players who were three and four-year starters at major programs and all the ones in between—small schools, big schools, guys that played, guys that didn’t play, guys that switched positions, got hurt and had different curves in their careers—so it’s one big evaluation process. I don’t think you can neglect any aspect of it, but at the same time you need to take everything into consideration and try to do the best with what you have, and make the best decisions for your team. All of that process has occurred and now it is a question of trying to finalize how we value the players, which is really important. It’s how we value the players, not how someone else values them and not what some other grade is on them or what round someone else thinks he can go in. What’s important to us is what we think he’ll do for our football team if he’s here. That is really where the emphasis is. As we wind down that evaluation process and get into the draft strategy, potential movement, and comparison between player A and player B at different points in the draft – that’s the last step of the process. It’s always an exciting time when you build your team. This weekend will be an important team-building time for all of us in the National Football League.


Q: Do you sense any reluctance these days of teams to use the picks higher in the first round? It seems at times it is more cost effective to use the lower picks. You have a lot of picks in the second round. You could use just about all of them and not spend what you would have to spend on a top pick?

BB: That is certainly true. I think if you go and look at the Hall of Fame players, you’ll find a lot more in the first round than in the second round. Generally speaking, the higher the pick the better the player. That’s generally speaking the way it is. You’re right. You can get more players for less money. It’s a question of quality. When teams trade up in the draft, they trade up not for a spot, but for a specific player. That’s their judgment on what they think that player will bring to their team. Each case is different. I know there is a general value for trades. We studied that and feel like we know what that market is. Again, it varies in the first round or two. Especially the first round because you’re trading for a specific player. When you trade a sixth and a seventh to move up in the sixth round, I don’t know if anybody knows who you are going to take. If you wanted him that bad, you could have had him 200 players ago. That is not so much a player pick as it is a value pick. You trade up for someone in the first round and you are going for a specific guy. How much that guy is worth to you is how much you are willing to give up. It might be high based on what other people think, but if that’s what you think the player brings to your team, then it’s worth giving it up. Each one of those trades is different. I think when you are involved in those you have to get a feel for… if you are trading up, how much you want the player and if you are trading down, how much you want to draft there versus how much you don’t really care, how motivated the buyer is and how motivated the seller is. Each one of those is unique I don’t think there is any set formula for that. They’re all different.


Q: Do you enter every draft the same way in terms of the general thought process of that or do you specifically want to grab a player here or a position here?

BB: We haven’t been picking in the top 10 very often. When you are picking 23 or picking down in the late teens and 20s, there are so many things that can happen in front of you. It’s hard to predict [that] we are going to do this and we are going to do that. We are waiting to see what 20 other teams are going to do. I think again, the best thing we can do is be prepared. Again, it’s a little unusual because we have a little more flexibility with the three picks in the second round, so we could move up in the first round. But maybe once a player starts dropping into a certain range and you really like that player, then maybe you can consider moving up for him if someone is willing to trade out and that type of thing. Those are the kind of things we need to be prepared for and whether or not it’s worth it to give up one, two, or three picks to move up to take a particular player and give up the opportunity to pick up players in the 40s and 50s. Again, the best example I could give would be that it’s like studying for a final exam. You have a semester’s worth of information and material. Which five questions are going to be on the exam? I don’t know. You have to study all the material. You hope you are on the target for the ones he asks. When it is over, you probably wish you would have studied more on something else and maybe spent a little less time on another area, but that is the way it is in the draft every year. You have to be prepared for everything. In the end you don’t know exactly what it’s going to be. If you are picking [third], it’s a lot easier to evaluate the first three players than if you’re picking 23rd and trying to evaluate the first 30 for that one pick.


Q: Do you believe in the concept of drafting for need?

BB: As I said, I think you draft to improve your team. You sign players to improve your team. That encompasses a lot of things, so what you draft is what you see helping your team, both short term and long term, because you expect those players to be here for more than one year. Whether it is four or five years, whatever your commitment is to those players, that’s really what you are drafting for. In the end, you need everyone. Whether you draft your number one need or number five need, in a year or two those needs may change. Sometimes you take a player that is best suited for you at the time and sometimes that player happens to be one you also need. You do what is best for your team.


Q: Are you noticing more teams calling in?

BB: It’s all just preliminary. We’re just trying to get a sense of what teams are interested in possibly talking, nobody is committing to anything. Like us last year, we were sitting at seven and 62. If we trade 62 to move up from seven then our next pick is 90-something. That probably wasn’t the place we wanted to be in the draft, so it wasn’t realistic for us to move up from seven or to trade 62. I’m not saying that’s impossible, but the chances of that happening didn’t seem pretty good. So, whatever player was at 20, it didn’t really make any difference to us because we weren’t going to be at 20.
 
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The trick to trading down is continuing to find trading partners(suckers). I find it strange that there dont seem to be "favorite" trading partners, as I am sure most GMs look at BB like Red Aurbach. Under BB we have traded with the following:

Miami, Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Cincy, Oak, SD, KC, Hou, Car, NO, SF, Chi, GB, Dal, Sea....did I leave anyone out??

We traded down with Baltimore a few years ago. They got one of our #1 in the current year and gave us their #2 in the current year and their #1 in the next year. And which player did Baltimore covet so much......Kyle Boller. Ravens fans are still grousing about that one......
 
Bumped for truth. :D
 
BB robbed Green Bay today. Traded a late 1st and a 5th for their high 2nd and two more 3rd round picks. That was classic BB horsetrading! :D
 
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