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No Realistic Predictions?

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by Easterbrook, Nov 3, 2007.

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  1. Easterbrook

    Easterbrook Banned

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    Of course Pats fans are fully entitled to think their team will win tomorrow, as both are great teams and each capable of beating the other. But why all of the predictions for the Pats to score 40something, 50+ points?

    For NE to score 52 on Washington, they needed the Redskins to lose 2 of their top 3 CBs, numerous three and outs by Washington in order to get the ball back quickly enough to score, they got several turnovers, scored a defensive TD, and then still had to desperately try for more points at the end.

    There is NO way either team scores that many points tomorrow.
    Last edited: Nov 3, 2007
  2. chrisfx811

    chrisfx811 Rookie

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    I agree.
    I don't think Brady & co will strive to put all their points up on the board so quickly, as they will also take more time off the clock if given the opportunity to rest their own defense.
    I don't think the Colts will commit as many penalties as the Cowboys did to halt their own drives. Nor do I think Manning & co will fail to convert as many 3rd downs as quickly as Washington did.

    But, they did put up 34 points last year, with a considerably weaker offense last year, and all the other mishaps.
    I don't think 40+ is that far out of the question, if our rush defense is stout tomorrow.
  3. Easterbrook

    Easterbrook Banned

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    True, the Pats offense is MUCH better this year. But the Colts defense is MUCH better this year. NE also had a defensive TD in that game, and a couple of long kick returns from Hobbs to get those 34 points. You can't count on any or all of those things happening again.

    Even if NE's offense has a stellar day as they did last week, they still won't score those points because the Colts will be driving the ball themselves taking time off the clock. Doubtful they will turn the ball over as much either to give NE a short field.

    Of course, if the Colts defense plays really well and holds NE down some, then the scoring will be even lower.
  4. PatsFanInVa

    PatsFanInVa PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    While from the point of view of a Colts fan, Indy is something special, different, underestimated, and terrifying, from the point of view of a Pats fan -- particularly one taking part in the "predict the score" contest -- there are certain other dynamics which militate for lopsided predictions.

    We have been following the Pats, and taking part in this contest, for years. I myself lost some ground going by the assumption, early on, that the blowouts were not a permanent thing. Then we got to the Dallas game -- there was no way we were going to put up the customary 38 or 34 against those guys, right? Uh, no.

    Then it was Washington. Washington had me a little worried. Fifth best D in the league. Really starting to coalesce around Campbell. But I'd learned my lesson by then, and was only off by something like 16.

    What we've been learning as we watched the Pats this year, is that they are that good.

    Are the Colts better than those mugs? Yeah probably. Will the Colts look a lot like Dallas looked, by Monday Morning? Again, yeah, probably. You've noticed Dallas hasn't lost since the Pats game, right? That's because that's a pretty good team we slapped around.

    So anyway -- all I can say is, everyone predicts what they predict, yadda yadda yadda. Predictions are worthless all the way around, that's why they play the games. But if you're in a contest to be the best predictor, you are that much more likely to take the exercise seriously.

    Obviously, the "predict the score" contest here will be biased, as compared to a leaguewide equivalent. But I honestly think you're looking at a team -- the Pats -- that are a couple of touchdowns better than anybody right now.

    And all the contestants who insist on saying, "yeah, but this week..." have paid for that mistake multiple times already.

    PFnV
  5. RobAllan

    RobAllan Rookie

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    I think 40-something to teen-something or maybe 20-something is fairly realistic. This team is far better than the rest of the NFL. The Colts are at the top of that "rest of the NFL," no question. But that doesn't mean they're not going to get pounded.

    Frankly all the Colts-loving going on right now is silly. They don't have a prayer. They won't be able to stop us.. I don't think on a single drive. And they always start out slow, and this will be no different. We'll win by the 2 TDs we're ahead by in the 1st quarter MINIMUM. And we should get a 3rd or a 4th score ahead from a Manning INT or 2.

    It won't be close. Book it.
  6. RobAllan

    RobAllan Rookie

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    Also, and nothing personal, but I think anyone who has a name alluding to Gregg Easterbrook should be banned for that alone. Pretty much your using him in your handle tells me what kind of trash you are. And if you're not trash, you should probably pick something else so people don't assume it.
  7. Easterbrook

    Easterbrook Banned

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    You didn't really offer anything football related to help your case. What I'm saying is, unless the Pats get a defensive TD, force the Colts into half a dozen three and outs, throw long bombs against a cover two, and convert in the red zone at will, they can still win, but they won't have the time/possessions to put up that many points. Same goes for the Colts offense.
  8. RobAllan

    RobAllan Rookie

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    Yes I did. We pull ahead by 2 TDs in the first quarter because we score on our first two posessions and the Colts don't score on their first. Then maybe Indy paces us the rest of the game, EXCEPT for the 1 or 2 turnovers we get. And since I stated the Colts won't be able to stop us on any drive, that explains my prediction fairly succinctly. We score on our first drive, Colts don't, Colts make 1 or 2 turnovers, we don't. That's pretty easy to interperet, frankly.
  9. Easterbrook

    Easterbrook Banned

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    Unless this is a kids forum, I'm sure we're all mature enough here to take the good with the bad. Are all of the Pats fans that talk about Manning's big forehead, etc. "telling what kind of trash they are?"
  10. RobAllan

    RobAllan Rookie

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    There's a difference between supporting an ego-maniac with a weird chin and throwing your lot in with an anti-semitist who fabricates news stories. I'm just saying, generally, it's good to be careful who we choose to identify with. If you came in with the name CharlesMansonLvr or ILuvHitler I'm pretty sure you'd get the same reaction. And the only reason Easterbrook isn't as bad as those guys is his kills people in columns instead of with firearms.

    There's no one that sickens me in all of sports more than Easterbrook right now, except perhaps Ray Lewis. So that name, to me, is a reflection on you. My perogative. Your coming in here with a "no realistic predictions" thread, when the predictions layed out ARE fairly realistic only affirms your likeness to Easterbrook. So that's a double-whammy.
    Last edited: Nov 3, 2007
  11. Easterbrook

    Easterbrook Banned

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    The fact that you are comparing a columnist with mass murderers is, quite frankly, disturbing. Way to keep things in perspective there.
  12. RobAllan

    RobAllan Rookie

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    At least when a murderer kills you, you're dead. Easterbrook defames his victims, paints them as evil, etc. And some of the public at large buys into that and jumps on that bandwagon. He knows it, and he profits from it. Journalists are supposed to have integrity just like doctors take an oath to keep your best interests and their integrity in mind.

    It was a bit of hyperbole on my part. Maybe I should've rolled with RayLewisIsAGreatGuy or MikeTysonisARoleModel as the example. But if the glass slipper is fitting, Cinderella, then go ahead and slide it on!
  13. RobAllan

    RobAllan Rookie

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    Look, I'm sorry. You don't deserve the rant I'm laying on you just because of a ScreenName. But I can't imagine what you expected when you're using one like that.

    I double-apologize, if such a thing is possible, if that's your real name, though. Something I didn't consider when the red-flag got waved.

    I retract the double-apology, though, if you're actually Gregg Easterbrook. In that event I have alot more to say. :D

    So yes, I'm sorry. I'm over it.
  14. PatsFanInVa

    PatsFanInVa PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    First off, it should be said that the cover 2 is designed not to give up big plays, and if anybody knows Tampa 2 it's Dungy.

    That said... Stallworth and Welker are YAC monsters, and Moss is a physical freak. I can see the Pats burning the Colts deep and erasing all the talk about how you can't do it, and I could just as easily see the Pats reeling off 5 or 6 10-20 yard passes for a quick score. What you're missing is that the little window between the safety and the corner in a cover 2 is something you need to be accurate to exploit, but we happen to have the most accurate QB playing the game. It might also necessitate an athletic receiver, if the accuracy is off... and we happen to have the most athletic receiver in the game. You might not be able to get behind a cover 2, but you can get upfield against it, and not necessarily in a grind-it-out fashion. And that's not even mentioning those great YAC guys, Stallworth and Welker. Bob Sanders has to be everywhere to fix what will ail you this week.... and there's only one of him.

    Listen, Easterbrook, you seem like a fairly nice guy from Indy or thereabouts. Why don't you go down to your local sports bar and tell them you hate to do it, but you'll take the Pats giving away 5. Since you're hanging around here anyway, you may as well put what you're learning to good use. You know in your heart you're not going to smell a 38-34 score in this game, never mind be on the "38" end of it.

    Why not take your fellow Indy fans for a few bucks on the way to the inevitable?

    PFnV
  15. JR4

    JR4 In the Starting Line-up PatsFans.com Supporter

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    It may depend on how Colts decide to defend PATs. If they keep Sanders back then I could see PATs try to run. If successful they will keep running.
    This would slow the game down and could lead to a low scoring game.

    But Colts have to be worried about that approach if Colts Offense can't
    stay on field for very long because their D will have more chance of
    wearing out in the 2nd half.

    I think they will mix Sanders ... sometime up and sometimes back.
    This will mean Brady will have to make some good quick decisions and should lead to some big gains.
    PATs will continue to score as they have been is my guess.
  16. Easterbrook

    Easterbrook Banned

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    Well let me make a few points. First, hyperbole or not, how much you disagree and don't like the guy or not, comparing him to mass murderers is like I said, VERY disturbing, not to mention extremely insensitive. Additionally, there are some great Pats fans that post here and elsewhere, but there are a lot of dirtbags just as there are with other teams fans.

    Looking at many of the threads here...the following sentiments are being expressed: support for BB's Eff You to the league (for being caught for cheating, mind you...which in the end suggests fans support cheating); incessant desire to embarrass other opponents at the end of the game; etc.

    Now it's one thing for the players to just go out their and do their job, they do what they're told. But for fans to show that side of their personality, you'd think a real NE fan would remember how bad this team once was, and be happy with the win, not try to run up the score and embarrass other teams.

    Now, I have to finish by giving you guys credit, most of the threads I saw here after the WASH game are several pages back and none with those kinds of topics are really going up at the moment. Props to Pats fans, but it could also be a sign you guys aren't too sure of your chances this weekend.
  17. Easterbrook

    Easterbrook Banned

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    Ye gods.

    :rolleyes:
  18. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    YOu are out of your mind saying the Pats 'desperately tried' to score more points. If the Skins had 60 on the board, the Pats would have scored 66.
    The Pats kept scoring because even while trying to run down the clock, they still couldn't be stopped.
    Against Miami we had 42 at HALFTIME.

    I think 52 is an awful lot of points even in a huge mismatch, so that is unlikely, but I expect the Pats to be in the 40s.
  19. RobAllan

    RobAllan Rookie

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    Ugh. You're exactly like Easterbrook. Pats running it up? Sure, sure. They REALLY did something wrong there. It's all about embarassing the other team. You bet.

    Could be a sign we're not too sure of our chances? Ye Gods, indeed. We just finished saying we're going to blow you out! How did you get the idea we're not sure of our chances?

    Lastly, your hero Easterbrook just called the Pats evil and painted Tony Dungy as a saint. That bit of hyperbole is far beyond even my mass murderer comparison. So I think you'd have as much distaste for him as you do for my comments. But then again, when confronted with fact you seem to draw conclusions like "you're not too sure of your chances." So I'll lower my expectations to accomodate this to prevent any further issues.
  20. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    What do you want them to do, take a knee starting in the 3rd quarter?
    Of all teams to criticize play calling when far ahead, the Colts have the least room to talk.
  21. MoLewisrocks

    MoLewisrocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Colts fans have selective memories. It's less likely they can muster 38 points against a Patriots D that added Thomas in the offseason and has Rodney Harrison back at SS and Junior Seau in the LB rotation and Randall Gay as it's nickle CB and a youngster like Merriweather lying in the weeds. Particularly not with a less than healthy Marvin and a rookie slot receiver and a ? at LT.

    The Colts have sputtered somewhat on offense so far this season, but facing a number of QB'less opponents have been able to wear down the competition and put up some points late. They won't have the luxury of sputtering on Sunday because they are facing a HOF QB who managed to put up points against essentially this D even when his best available receiving weapons were the Redskins 5th WR this season and his own 4th WR this season and a 35 year old slot receiver who remains on PUP after having his balky knee dealt with in the off season.

    Colts fans can't seem to grasp the simple fact that they have never faced this offense, and they didn't beat this defense in 2006. Or in 2005 for that matter.

    But then again look at the screen name this dunderhead selected. Can you imagine naming yourself after a mediot whose sanity, nevermind objectivity, even most of his peers are now questioning. Unfortunately that is the nature of the Indy fan base since 2005. Larger than ever yet dumber than a brick.

    A couple of things I'll be watching in this game are how Randy fares against another cover 2 - he did OK last week when we practiced against the 'Skins. And Deion opined a few weeks ago that uber-talent WR's love Cover 2. The Colts 2 young CB's are bigger and more physical than their predecessors. However using them to advantage against this speedy receiving corps may be easier said than done since Polian chose to lobby for the handcuffing of bigger physical corners back when he didn't have any (and we did). Vic Carrucci was on WEEI yesterday recalling a conversation he had with Polian at the time where he pointed out to him that the rules emphasis he initiated might one day haunt him were his own secondary to become more physical...
  22. chrisfx811

    chrisfx811 Rookie

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    I'll disagree that the Colts defense is MUCH better than it was in the AFCCG.
    I don't see it. I see them being as good as they were then, and possibly having refined their tackling. They have not faced an offense worth it's salt yet this year unless you consider the Saints as good as last year.

    As pointed out, we've proved we can score on the Skins, Chargers, and Cowboys. 2 of those teams have balanced offenses, capable of keeping the ball away from an offense against many teams. The Colts are better on offense than both those teams for sure.

    Now look at the Colts schedule and find me one, just one, solitary example of the Colts defense squaring off against a team that is within 20% of the Patriots production this year.
    Brady has more td's throwing than most teams have total. The Pats have scored 13 td's aside from Brady's arm. That's over 11 points per game from the ground, defense, and return game alone.
    Factor in field goals, and the Patriots average right near 15 points per game.
    The Titans avg 20.7 ppg
    The Jags, 18.7 ppg
    Carolina, 18.6 ppg.
    The Texans are a juggernaut @ 22.4 ppg.

    The Colts have proven their defense can stop those offenses, and have won handily in most games, save for the 2 point 'shootout' they had against the mighty Titans, and the 6 point win against the 'potent' Texans.

    The Texans scored more than their average against the Colts w/o Andre Johnson.
    The Titans met their average against the Colts.
    Denver was 3 points over their average against the Colts.

    So, I think it's safe to say that the 41.4 ppg average of the Patriots might pose a little bit more problems than what the Colts have faced.
  23. chrisfx811

    chrisfx811 Rookie

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    I trust Edward's words would carry more weight in the context you are using them if he had any Super Bowl wins, or post season success to fall back on.
  24. RobAllan

    RobAllan Rookie

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    They'd also have been less funny if he'd said "The purpose is to WIN the game" instead of "You play to win the game!"
  25. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Once again, you are out of your mind. Bradys last drive started with 2 minutes left in the THIRD QUARTER. It would be STUPID for a team whose first unit on offense played less than 3/4s of the prior weeks game to stop playing offense IN THE THIRD QUARTER.
    Brady was removed after that drive. After that we ran the ball 7 times and threw in 3.
    Let me guess, YOU shoudl decide for BB whether when he gets the opportunity to put his backup QB in who has never played significant snaps, whether throwing the ball a couple of times would be helpful to his development?

    This is what is so stupid. No one has come close to the Patriots all season.
    So now there must be something created. They must be evil, so lets find an argument to fit it.

    It is very simple.
    1) Until the game is TRULY out of hand (see the Colts comeback vs Tampa a few years ago, 21 point deficit erased in 5 minutes) you keep playing football. That is why Brady came back in against Miami. It became a 21 point game. In a nightmare scenario, they could have gotten back in it. If there is a 1 in 1,000,000 chance that the lead isn't safe, a smart coach doesn't worry about how the other team will feel about the # of points they let up.
    2) When the scoreboard still says 3rd quarter, no matter the score, you don't start pulling people out. They need to stay sharp and play football.
    3) When you bring your subs in, they are in the game TO GET EXPERIENCE, not in order to pad the psyche of the other team by helping them feel better about the final score.
  26. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    OK, I will stop reading and responding to any of your posts, because you just called Marlin Jackson a top 3 corner in the NFL.
    You have proven you know less about football than the paperweight on my desk.
  27. RobAllan

    RobAllan Rookie

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    Well, I think it's better than last year. But the argument that it is MUCH better is where the line is being drawn. The production of the teams you've faced says plenty to support the notion you're not a great deal better, which is why it was posted earlier in this thread.

    Comparatively, the Pats are MUCH better on offense. That's undeniable. And the Pats D is healthier by leaps and bounds... I'd venture to say the Pats D is as much better as the Colts D is.
  28. RobAllan

    RobAllan Rookie

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    And his paperweight is probably a Sox baseball. :D
  29. Patsfanin Philly

    Patsfanin Philly Rookie

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    You don't call a 52-51 coaching record or 2-4 in the post season success?????
    Herm also said,
    When we score seven points, I’ll say we’re slow starting. If we score 21 points, I’ll say, ‘Whoa, we scored a lot of points.’ Twenty-one points – that’s a lot of points. Thirty points? That isn’t even a football game. That’s Arena Football. We’re talking about real football.” [16]

    What would he classify 40 points a game as??????
    Last edited: Nov 3, 2007
  30. RobAllan

    RobAllan Rookie

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    Madden 2008 on "Rookie"
    Last edited: Nov 3, 2007
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