No pass rush = one and out

[Timbo717]

Last year's first playoff games for each team:

Seattle vs. New Orleans - NO wins the sack battle 2-1, loses game.

Jets vs. Indy - Tied 1-1 in sacks. Jets win.

KC vs. Balt - KC wins sack battle 4-3, loses game.

GB vs. Phi - GB wins sack battle 3-2, wins game.

Pitt vs. Balt - Balt wins sack battle 6-5, loses game.

GB vs. Atl - GB wins sack battle 5-2, wins game.

Sea vs. Chi - Sea wins sack battle 3-2, loses game.

NE vs. Jets - Jets win sack battle 5-0, win game.

So, record for teams that had more sacks in either their first game of the playoffs (or their opponents first game) is 3-4.

"No pass rush = one and out"

Inconclusive at best.

I would think QB "hurries" would be a valid statistic used by some in this discussion about a pass rush as a whole. Probably as well as average time to throw the ball but I have no idea if that is tracked at all or readily available stats.

I haven't looked into either of those things so I am not going against what you're saying, just would be interested to see those stats as well. I don't have the time or the motivation, but it's interesting to see your breakdown as well.

 

[Sicilian]

I would think QB "hurries" would be a valid statistic used by some in this discussion about a pass rush as a whole. Probably as well as average time to throw the ball but I have no idea if that is tracked at all or readily available stats.

I haven't looked into either of those things so I am not going against what you're saying, just would be interested to see those stats as well. I don't have the time or the motivation, but it's interesting to see your breakdown as well.

Definitely, QB hurries and general "discomfort" in the pocket go a long way too. And I wasn't trying to say that a **** rush is irrelevant, that would be beyond silly. It's just harder to find a reliable source to quantify it since it's a highly subjective stat.

What I was trying to point out is that there's no ONE aspect of a football team that means certain victory or certain defeat. Statements like "no pass rush = one and out" drive me nuts because it seeks to simplify a game that has too many factors to be viewed in that way.

Also, if you want to use the Pats-Jets game as an example of pass rush being the difference, there are two ways to win the pass rush battle: Improve your pass rush, or improve your pass protection. The Patriots draft made a few steps towards the latter.

 

[Timbo717]

Definitely, QB hurries and general "discomfort" in the pocket go a long way too. And I wasn't trying to say that a **** rush is irrelevant, that would be beyond silly. It's just harder to find a reliable source to quantify it since it's a highly subjective stat.

What I was trying to point out is that there's no ONE aspect of a football team that means certain victory or certain defeat. Statements like "no pass rush = one and out" drive me nuts because it seeks to simplify a game that has too many factors to be viewed in that way.

Also, if you want to use the Pats-Jets game as an example of pass rush being the difference, there are two ways to win the pass rush battle: Improve your pass rush, or improve your pass protection. The Patriots draft made a few steps towards the latter.

Agreed completely. I wasn't trying to poke holes in your argument or anything because I agree with the premise completely. I think the Patriots are concentrating on the second (pass protection) first because they need to keep Brady healthy and give him time. It also doesn't hurt that these young guys not only have a great OL coach, but a few older guys to learn from, rather than trying to replace it all at once 2-3 years from now.

 

[ivanvamp]

Agreed completely. I wasn't trying to poke holes in your argument or anything because I agree with the premise completely. I think the Patriots are concentrating on the second (pass protection) first because they need to keep Brady healthy and give him time.

See the thread I just started about pass rush and playoff success. The numbers bear out that it isn't so much whether your team generates pressure; it's how much pressure you generate *compared to your opponent* in that particular game.

So if the Pats can't get pressure, if they at least keep the opposing defense off Brady, more likely than not, the Pats will win, even against quality opponents.

 

[DW Toys]

First, the Pats were one and done in 2009 and they got killed by the run, not the pass. In fact, Flacco only threw 10 times in that game and only completed 4 of those passes for 34 yards, 0 TDs, and 1 INT. The pass rush had nothing to do with being one and done in 2009.

Second, last year the Pats shutdown the Jets offense a month earlier winning 45-3. Although Sanchez had a good game in the playoff game, that loss had more to do with how the Jets were able to shutdown the offense than the defense. In fact, the Jets beat the Pats because they didn't deliver a strong pass rush in favor of taking away Brady's passing options with extra guys in coverage.

Third, as pointed out, Belichick prefers to get pass rushers from free agency over the draft especially at OLB. Both Colvin and Adalius Thomas, who are the two biggest acquistions at OLB of the Belichick era, were free agents.

O.K. Rob. The Cousin initially makes a good point and everyone is trashing him for beating that drum. He is talking about the BB is never wrong "Koolaidaholics" rising up together for a few versus "Somewhere Over the Rainbow". IMO there was a subtle mistake made in this Draft on day two. You could see the little conversations between Nick and BB. BB played his 28th pick too early. He wound up with a very late first rounder next year.

Do I think Ingram will be one Draft round better than Vereen? I am not a big fan of a small back when you already have one just as good in Woodhead. He is also faster than Vereen and had a better college career. Ingram fits our style better. So to make up for the lack of production in certain areas that Vereen brings, he now has to go out and get Ridley. So you waste a pick because you picked the wrong RB.
Here is where it went wrong:

Payton calls and offer BB the #56 and first in 2012 N.O. pick. We know that is like showing a "rock" to a crack head. They would suck a............... lemon for the rock........ O.K. the pick is made.

Now comes day two. The Niners offer #45 and perhaps a fourth in this Draft so they can grab Dalton (fact). Kaepernick was their fallback. Nick sayd, get their third rounder. BB could have made the deal at #33 and got his 2012 first rounder by throwing them perhaps the Pats fourth this year, which he wound up giving Al anyway.

So he blew #28 where he could have had Ingram for his running back who truth be known, is a much better fit for the Pats than Vereen because we have a better Vereen in Woodhead. And now he has his first from the Niners in 2012 which should be better than the Saints first rounder for us. He was trying to hold up the Niners and they would not bite because he already had a 2012 first and he could play a little Russian Roulette on a second 2012 first rounder.

Now he could have #45 and #60 and he doesn't have to Draft another RB, let alone two. I say our second third rounder #92 could have upped us a few picks to Denver at #36 and the Broncos give us pick #129 late in the fourth for the difference. But I say Dowling was not in play until pick #41 with Houston.

So at #36 I go Reed (whom I feel BB really wanted at #56 and I think Reiss kind of indicated Sheard or Reed there). #40 was held by the Skins. We could have swapped picks with the Skins and added #129 and perhaps our sixth to go from #60 to#40 and still got Dowling.

Mallet at #74 was the pick.

Cannon in the fifth was a great pick.

So you Draft could have been:
#17-Solder
#28-Ingram
#36-Reed
#40-Dowling
#74-Mallet
and playing with the last few picks, Cannon in the fifth and certainly not waste a throw away like the kid from TCU who without question would be available as an UDFA.

And he gets the Niners 2012 First Round pick, not the Saints.

I hope Vereen is the next Charles, but to me he is a taller Woodhead. Rildey was picked to take up the missing parts of Vereen's game and Dowling could have come down a few slots.

I think this would probably been more preferable for BB. Once the first mistake was made, it went down differently. So we lose Al's 2nd but we go up maybe ten slots or better in next years Draft in the first round so it equals out, and we have a solid pass rusher who is not Lawrence Taylor but better than what we got or maybe what we have.

Which Draft would you like better?

DW Toys

 

[convertedpatsfan]

Can a mod merge this with the other 18 threads about the lack of pass rush?

Should we just create a super sticky thread for the pass rush complaints to avoid the 11 new threads each week?

 

[sbpatfan]

Give me DeMarcus Ware over Nate Solder any day.

I wasn't aware DeMarcus Ware entered the 2011 NFL Draft. I'm sure you would've been shouting give me X over Nate Solder any day. With X being Vernon Gholston and Aaron Maybin.

 

[VJCPatriot]

Give me DeMarcus Ware over Nate Solder any day.

Only problem with this 'analysis' is that Demarcus Ware was never on the table. The 'premier' pass rushers in the draft all went before #17 aldon smith, quinn, etc. And even then we don't know if they would have 'fit' BB's defensive system or how well they would have adjusted. Even more questionmarks surrounded second tier talents such as Sheard, Houston, etc.

It's always easy to criticize but the offseason is far from over. Why don't we let BB do this thing. There's still free agency to go, and last year's young defense still has a lot of growing up to do. Oh and the Patriots DID draft an outside linebacker - name of Markell Carter.

Until somebody can convince me that the Patriots have one or don't need one, I will try to keep it at the top of the discussion.

Why would anyone try to convince you that they don't need a pass rush? The thing is that you seem to be confusing 'getting a shiny new outside linebacker' with pass rush. Pass rush can come from all parts of the field. It is generated by the scheme and the playcalls not just one particular position.

This team is so close to winning another SB, a pass rush covers up a whole lot of issues elsewhere.

Haven't you figured out yet that the Pats decided to ADDRESS those issues directly instead of 'cover them up'? The Pats had issues with the offensive line. They drafted two OL. The Pats running game was non-existent in the playoffs. They drafted two RBs. The Pats pass coverage was suspect. They drafted an athletic 6'1 CB with a 38 inch vertical.

So instead of reaching for players who may or may not help the pass rush, they addressed other very REAL areas of need. How logical is it to say "SEE we drafted a passrusher, let's just ignore the other need areas on our team -- cos according to some message board poster, the pass rush 'covers up' everything!"

 

[Triumph]

Sacks are really over rated.

The Pats under BB, have always been a defense that drops back in coverage and flood zones with players making it harder to throw. If guys cant cover, the WR will be open and it doesnt matter who is rushing the QB.

The best BB defense in 2003 NE had 41 sacks.
2003 NFL Team Defense Stats - National Football League - ESPN

In 2010 NE had 36 sacks.
2010 NFL Team Defense Stats - National Football League - ESPN

5 sacks dont make or break a defense.

The real problems are:

(1) Pass defense - Pats have DBs that dont cover so well. If Mcourty wasnt around last season it would have been way worse.

(2) 3rd down defense. NE was the 2nd worst in 2010.
2010 NFL Team Downs Stats - National Football League - ESPN

(3) Red Zone defense. This somewhat improved in 2010.

 

[Oswlek]

What is funny about this is that NE's coverage in the playoff loss was by far the worst part of their defense. If Sanchez was even remotely respectible NY would have slapped a 40 spot down.

I walked away from that game thinking NE needed to shore up its secondary more than its pass rush and apparently the coaches agreed with me.

 

[townes]

As I read the whining and moaning, and the patriots only re-tooling instead of rebuilding, I would have thought that we were below 8-8.

Pretty much how i see it. Those crying about not taking an OLB are ignoring the fact that Belichik has largely rebuilt this team so that it can contend for the rest of Brady's career, and if he sees a player who can radically upgrade their pass rush who is somehow available he will make the move for them, as he has done with other needs in the past.

Patriot fans are spoiled and if they don't win the SB they have failed, and while they would obviously like to win it every year I have always felt Belichik's approach, like that of Bill Walsh, is to get them in the tournament every year and they will get their share of Championships from it, although that generally means you lose more play-off games than win SB's you still come away with more Lombardi's than everyone else. In Belichik's tenure he has achieved just that and we have the best franchise in the league, hardly something for fans to b.tch, whine, and scream about.

 

[Rob0729]

O.K. Rob. The Cousin initially makes a good point and everyone is trashing him for beating that drum. He is talking about the BB is never wrong "Koolaidaholics" rising up together for a few versus "Somewhere Over the Rainbow". IMO there was a subtle mistake made in this Draft on day two. You could see the little conversations between Nick and BB. BB played his 28th pick too early. He wound up with a very late first rounder next year.

Do I think Ingram will be one Draft round better than Vereen? I am not a big fan of a small back when you already have one just as good in Woodhead. He is also faster than Vereen and had a better college career. Ingram fits our style better. So to make up for the lack of production in certain areas that Vereen brings, he now has to go out and get Ridley. So you waste a pick because you picked the wrong RB.
Here is where it went wrong:

Payton calls and offer BB the #56 and first in 2012 N.O. pick. We know that is like showing a "rock" to a crack head. They would suck a............... lemon for the rock........ O.K. the pick is made.

Now comes day two. The Niners offer #45 and perhaps a fourth in this Draft so they can grab Dalton (fact). Kaepernick was their fallback. Nick sayd, get their third rounder. BB could have made the deal at #33 and got his 2012 first rounder by throwing them perhaps the Pats fourth this year, which he wound up giving Al anyway.

So he blew #28 where he could have had Ingram for his running back who truth be known, is a much better fit for the Pats than Vereen because we have a better Vereen in Woodhead. And now he has his first from the Niners in 2012 which should be better than the Saints first rounder for us. He was trying to hold up the Niners and they would not bite because he already had a 2012 first and he could play a little Russian Roulette on a second 2012 first rounder.

Now he could have #45 and #60 and he doesn't have to Draft another RB, let alone two. I say our second third rounder #92 could have upped us a few picks to Denver at #36 and the Broncos give us pick #129 late in the fourth for the difference. But I say Dowling was not in play until pick #41 with Houston.

So at #36 I go Reed (whom I feel BB really wanted at #56 and I think Reiss kind of indicated Sheard or Reed there). #40 was held by the Skins. We could have swapped picks with the Skins and added #129 and perhaps our sixth to go from #60 to#40 and still got Dowling.

Mallet at #74 was the pick.

Cannon in the fifth was a great pick.

So you Draft could have been:
#17-Solder
#28-Ingram
#36-Reed
#40-Dowling
#74-Mallet
and playing with the last few picks, Cannon in the fifth and certainly not waste a throw away like the kid from TCU who without question would be available as an UDFA.

And he gets the Niners 2012 First Round pick, not the Saints.

I hope Vereen is the next Charles, but to me he is a taller Woodhead. Rildey was picked to take up the missing parts of Vereen's game and Dowling could have come down a few slots.

I think this would probably been more preferable for BB. Once the first mistake was made, it went down differently. So we lose Al's 2nd but we go up maybe ten slots or better in next years Draft in the first round so it equals out, and we have a solid pass rusher who is not Lawrence Taylor but better than what we got or maybe what we have.

Which Draft would you like better?

DW Toys

First, I never said pass rush wasn't an issue. I am pointing it out that the OP is oversimplifying why this team hasn't done well in the playoffs in recent years. Teams have done well in the playoffs without smoke and mirrors.

Second, I never said Belichick can do no wrong. It is unfair to judge him for not improving the pass rush for this season before free agency has started. If after free agency is basically over and the pass rush is still as big of an issue, then I will criticize Belichick for not addressing the situation. If they get say Kiwanuka and Cullen Jenkins, they will have improved their pass rush for 2011 probably far better than they could have in the draft. Criticizing Belichick for not getting a pass rusher now is like criticizing someone for staying in in Texas Holdem if he was playing the straight and he only had four cards in the straight right after the flop.

Third, I am not a Mark Ingram fan so I will say that I agree with the move they made passing on him and getting a first and second. Even if I liked the guy, the question is whether they actually felt he was a first round talent. Just because he was the best RB available doesn't mean he fits the system or will turn into an elite RB. Comparing him to Vereen is misleading because they fill two completely different roles. It would be like comparing Welker to Moss.

Fourth, as for Reed, who knows if he can make the transition to 3-4 two-gap OLB. Analysts thinks he can, but no one knows for sure. He worked out for the Pats. He came to Foxboro. He went early in the second where many had him as a late 2nd or 3rd rounder.

Fifth, playing the "we could have had" game on the draft in May is a little silly. Last year at this time, people were saying that the Pats could have had Jerry Hughes, Dez Bryant, or Jared Odrick rather than Devin McCourty. This year, most Pats fans would agree that they are estatic that the Pats took McCourty over Hughes, Bryant, or Odrick. Next year at this time, you might be thanking your lucky stars that the Pats didn't draft Ingram or Reed and might think Dowling was a better pick than McCourty.

Sixth, claiming you know if Belichick made any mistakes at this point. He knows more about the prospects especially Ingram and Reed than you or I do. Maybe Ingram's knee is as bad as some rumored or worse. Maybe they tested Reed and he failed miserably. Fact of the matter is virtually none of us know a heck of a lot about the players being drafted except what guys like Mike Mayock and Mel Kiper tell us and what we can read online. Belichick relies on in depth scouting and meeting with these players. He knows far more than we do and even then the draft is a crap shoot. No offense, but criticizing Belichick a week after the draft for making big mistakes as absolutes tells me you might not know anything about the draft.

There are no guarantees in the draft and some of moves that right after the draft were near universally panned were some of Belichick's best picks (McCourty, Deion Branch, Logan Mankins) and some of the ones people universally praised were not the best picks (Chad Jackson, Laurence Maroney, Darius Butler).

 

[DEVIOUS 1]

What is funny about this is that NE's coverage in the playoff loss was by far the worst part of their defense. If Sanchez was even remotely respectible NY would have slapped a 40 spot down.

I walked away from that game thinking NE needed to shore up its secondary more than its pass rush and apparently the coaches agreed with me.

I'll tell you another thing that these revisionists ignorantly forget about that playoff game. Our defensive line was down to:

V.Wilfork
G. Warren
Kyle Love (undrafted rookie FA)
Landon Cohen (JAG)
Brandon Deadrick (Rookie)
Myron Pryor (Playing at about 50%)

Not exactly a murderers row here guys. Getting some healthy bodies back would have definitly helped.

But we still would have lost! Because they shut down our Offense!!!!!!!!

We couldn't pass effectivly. Bad execution, poor protection. They dared us to run, AND WE COULDN'T!!!

Draft? Heavy emphasis on O-Line and the running game.

I think the team sees their needs much clearer than some internet yahoo, upset they didn't take their fictional idea of a pass rusher.

 

[eom]

I think I might actually prefer 2 wins and leading the league in sacks just so I don't see 50 of these threads next year

 

[AzPatsFan]

Given that this was the deepest draft in years for DL/OLB, what does this tell you in terms of supply and demand? What players will be most likely available in free agency?

I would argue that what BB did was very smart. He took players that would be difficult to gain in FA and left the easiest acquisition for that time. Those who took the dice roll on DL/OLB might be regretting it later when they really need that CB and there are none to be had!

I would take any of Manny Lawson, Mathias Kiawanuka, Corwin Barwin or Kamerion Wembly instead of any available to a Patriots draft pick.

And Lawson and Barwin may be available since Aldon Smith was drafted #8 by the 49ers for his position; and Barwin's job is being taken by Wade Phillips the DC, moving Mario to his OLB position, just like he moved DeMarcus Ware to OLB.

Of note: Wembly was traded for a mere 3rd rounder by the Raiders and he is the highest rated of the bunch.

 

[patriot lifer]

I'll tell you another thing that these revisionists ignorantly forget about that playoff game. Our defensive line was down to:

V.Wilfork
G. Warren
Kyle Love (undrafted rookie FA)
Landon Cohen (JAG)
Brandon Deadrick (Rookie)
Myron Pryor (Playing at about 50%)

Not exactly a murderers row here guys. Getting some healthy bodies back would have definitly helped.

But we still would have lost! Because they shut down our Offense!!!!!!!!

We couldn't pass effectivly. Bad execution, poor protection. They dared us to run, AND WE COULDN'T!!!

Draft? Heavy emphasis on O-Line and the running game.

I think the team sees their needs much clearer than some internet yahoo, upset they didn't take their fictional idea of a pass rusher.

:agree:

Amen. I even remember Deaderick being pretty beat up too, albeit not as bad as Pryor. We had a nice rotation going for a while between Wilfork, Warren, Brace, Wright, Pryor, and Deaderick. It wasn't the best in the league, but it provided ample flexibility for BB to mix things up based on player strengths and keep offenses on their toes with a shifting D-line.

Just to add on more thought to your point, the whole purpose of improving a pass rush is to improve the pass defense, which can be improved one of two ways: a) acquiring better pass rushers and b) improving your coverages (DB's). To improve the pass defense, the team should acquire the best available player of either position.

 

[jsull87]

I wonder if this is true of other teams, but I've noticed a certain proportion of Patriots fans who seem to believe that every other team manages to improve in the draft/FA/trades, but not the Patriots. . . .

It's not just that. they are wanting these rookies to be all pros or 10 sack guys 1st year in the league... 1st 2nd and 3rd round picks. I am ecstatic with cunningham last year, he got alot of pressure on the QB's and he was our best OLB against the run... as a 2nd round Rookie and started almost the entire season. I just don't know what more you can ask for than that from a 2nd round pick.

 

[jsull87]

O.K. Rob. The Cousin initially makes a good point and everyone is trashing him for beating that drum. He is talking about the BB is never wrong "Koolaidaholics" rising up together for a few versus "Somewhere Over the Rainbow". IMO there was a subtle mistake made in this Draft on day two. You could see the little conversations between Nick and BB. BB played his 28th pick too early. He wound up with a very late first rounder next year.

Do I think Ingram will be one Draft round better than Vereen? I am not a big fan of a small back when you already have one just as good in Woodhead. He is also faster than Vereen and had a better college career. Ingram fits our style better. So to make up for the lack of production in certain areas that Vereen brings, he now has to go out and get Ridley. So you waste a pick because you picked the wrong RB.
Here is where it went wrong:

Payton calls and offer BB the #56 and first in 2012 N.O. pick. We know that is like showing a "rock" to a crack head. They would suck a............... lemon for the rock........ O.K. the pick is made.

Now comes day two. The Niners offer #45 and perhaps a fourth in this Draft so they can grab Dalton (fact). Kaepernick was their fallback. Nick sayd, get their third rounder. BB could have made the deal at #33 and got his 2012 first rounder by throwing them perhaps the Pats fourth this year, which he wound up giving Al anyway.

So he blew #28 where he could have had Ingram for his running back who truth be known, is a much better fit for the Pats than Vereen because we have a better Vereen in Woodhead. And now he has his first from the Niners in 2012 which should be better than the Saints first rounder for us. He was trying to hold up the Niners and they would not bite because he already had a 2012 first and he could play a little Russian Roulette on a second 2012 first rounder.

Now he could have #45 and #60 and he doesn't have to Draft another RB, let alone two. I say our second third rounder #92 could have upped us a few picks to Denver at #36 and the Broncos give us pick #129 late in the fourth for the difference. But I say Dowling was not in play until pick #41 with Houston.

So at #36 I go Reed (whom I feel BB really wanted at #56 and I think Reiss kind of indicated Sheard or Reed there). #40 was held by the Skins. We could have swapped picks with the Skins and added #129 and perhaps our sixth to go from #60 to#40 and still got Dowling.

Mallet at #74 was the pick.

Cannon in the fifth was a great pick.

So you Draft could have been:
#17-Solder
#28-Ingram
#36-Reed
#40-Dowling
#74-Mallet
and playing with the last few picks, Cannon in the fifth and certainly not waste a throw away like the kid from TCU who without question would be available as an UDFA.

And he gets the Niners 2012 First Round pick, not the Saints.

I hope Vereen is the next Charles, but to me he is a taller Woodhead. Rildey was picked to take up the missing parts of Vereen's game and Dowling could have come down a few slots.

I think this would probably been more preferable for BB. Once the first mistake was made, it went down differently. So we lose Al's 2nd but we go up maybe ten slots or better in next years Draft in the first round so it equals out, and we have a solid pass rusher who is not Lawrence Taylor but better than what we got or maybe what we have.

Which Draft would you like better?

DW Toys

Oooorrr Ras-I is gone at 34 with Buffalo (who picked a CB in Williams). Now you miss out on a guy you had as the best player on the board at 33 because you wanted to get cute and move back to 40.

It's a pet hate of mine people saying they know where picks would have gone after the draft... I'm sure before the draft you also knew solder was the number 1 tackle on alot of teams boards and would be gone by 17? (of coarse your answer will probably be yes) The reality is none of us know where these picks will go e.g last year with McCourty same with Cunningham and Spikes. All of these picks people thought the pats reached on.

So to answer your question I'd rather the more realistic pats draft.

 

[Reckedtrek]

It's not just that. they are wanting these rookies to be all pros or 10 sack guys 1st year in the league... 1st 2nd and 3rd round picks. I am ecstatic with cunningham last year, he got alot of pressure on the QB's and he was our best OLB against the run... as a 2nd round Rookie and started almost the entire season. I just don't know what more you can ask for than that from a 2nd round pick.

And to add to this, Cunningham missed almost all of training camp last year. In addition to Cunningham improving, Ninkovich has made steady improvements and we're getting back a hopefully healthy Ty Warren. We've added Stroud, so we'll see what he brings if anything, and if the Pats can and do acquire Lawson , Kiwanuka, or one of the other serviceable to good FA's/trade options, we could see a strong improvement in the pass rush in 2011. ..... in addition to potentially improving our team in a number of other need areas. I say "potentially" because NOBODY knows how the players will do in the NFL at this point in time. All we have are "projections".

 

[TB146]

Given that this was the deepest draft in years for DL/OLB, what does this tell you in terms of supply and demand? What players will be most likely available in free agency?

I would argue that what BB did was very smart. He took players that would be difficult to gain in FA and left the easiest acquisition for that time. Those who took the dice roll on DL/OLB might be regretting it later when they really need that CB and there are none to be had!

This is a really interesting line of reasoning. Don't know if that's what BB was thinking, but it really makes sense. Economics.... brilliant!