NFLDraftScout.com Mock: Jake Locker at #17?!

[Sfpat]

On the other hand, the Pats probably won't have another chance to draft a top tier, "1st round" quality QB. The odds of lower round QB's becoming championship quality is slim. This pick is essentially a bonus pick. With 28 and 33 they can address the DL and OL. That said, I would prefer Locker to fall to 28 at least.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

On the other hand, the Pats probably won't have another chance to draft a top tier, "1st round" quality QB. The odds of lower round QB's becoming championship quality is slim. This pick is essentially a bonus pick. With 28 and 33 they can address the DL and OL. That said, I would prefer Locker to fall to 28 at least.

The real question is what you expect from Brady. At a minimum, taking Locker at #17 means paying him as much as you're paying McCourty—and more than five times what you're paying Hoyer—just to have him riding the pine.

And if Brady's still going strong in 2014, and wants to keep playing, then what?

 

[BelichickFan]

Absolutely not, I do get the argument but we have Tommy signed for 4 more years and we have a variety of needs, I don't want to spend a valuable pick on a clipboard holder. In 2013 or 2014 draft I will be open to this discussion.

 

[MaineMan]

My guesses:

The Pats (maybe) pick up a late-round/UDFA QB this year, but only if they're underwhelmed by Crompton.

Sometime in the next 8 months, Hoyer accepts a 2-year extension (through to 2014) with a nice, but not ridiculous, bump.

Sometime in 2011 or 2012, Brady will suffer and injury that prevents him from starting 1-3 games and we all finally get a good read on what Hoyer can do.

If Hoyer doesn't perform as well as Cassel (at the very least), the Pats may start looking at higher-round QBs in earnest in the following draft.

Whether an adequate replacement for Brady is on the roster or not when Brady's current contract is up at the end of 2014, there's a good chance that BB walks away from the NFL to become the HC at Navy (and probably stays there for at least a decade). I think he'd rather stay in coaching than move into administration as a GM.

 

[Criptonite]

On the other hand, the Pats probably won't have another chance to draft a top tier, "1st round" quality QB. The odds of lower round QB's becoming championship quality is slim. This pick is essentially a bonus pick. With 28 and 33 they can address the DL and OL. That said, I would prefer Locker to fall to 28 at least.

If there was a "top tier 1st round quality QB" in this draft, then maybe it could be a discussion. There's no Bradford or Stafford type of guy here. Gabbert, Locker, Mallett and Newton aren't half the prospects they were. These guys have serious flaws and are boom-or-bust picks at best. There's no way we spend a mid 1 on one of them.

 

[Titanium Coate Hanger]

Belichick always does the unexpected, that's for sure.

I think Hoodie tends to take BPA regardless of position, but if it's not a position of true need, he'll trade out or trade down.

I also think it depends on his strategy for how long he wants to be head coach and/or GM of the Patriots. Personally I think his goal is Five Rings Then Out. So he and Brady can have more rings as a unit than Walsh and Montana and then call it a day.

If he plans to stay, he can worry about QBOTF. If not, I doubt it's as pressing to him.

If Locker is the highest rated player on his board when 17 comes and he doesn't trade out, then I think he takes him.

IMHO, if you look at potential dynasties in the NFL that fell, maybe short of their potential, the Dallas and 49er teams of the 90s and the Packers, it was successive failures draft after draft, esp when the drafting was clearly need based to extend a run versus just reloading.

The problem with the current draft system is valuation of "position" changes the draft dynamic. What the 1st three picks are slotted tends to block out certain positions, even if they were BPA. QBs, CBs, LTs and great D linemen go early not just because they are hard to find, but because the market dictates that their compensation around the league tends to be in line with the slotting. People want to bag on SF and Oakland for taking Smith and Russell, but what if the best player was a linebacker? Or a safety? You'd change the entire market for the position by drafting that position first overall. We see how badly the former GM of the Texans was roasted for taking Mario Williams over Reggie Bush.

IMHO, Belichick takes value in whatever form he can get it. This offseason, I think he trades picks for established players already in the league. Lots of teams need to reload via draft, even if it's a weak draft, and lots of teams, given their worries over the cap and finances might be more prone to dump some talented players. It's a weak draft and he's got the trade ammo for it.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

If there was a "top tier 1st round quality QB" in this draft, then maybe it could be a discussion. There's no Bradford or Stafford type of guy here. Gabbert, Locker, Mallett and Newton aren't half the prospects they were. These guys have serious flaws and are boom-or-bust picks at best. There's no way we spend a mid 1 on one of them.

I agree, which is why I think BB wait until much later in the draft to take a QB.

PS: If Gabbert gets in the right system, he could develop into a monster QB.

 

[PatsFanStnfrd]

Rang continues to show that he doesn't have this job because he's good at it.

Well put!!!!

 

[PatsFanStnfrd]

What a horrible pick that would be, what with our needs at DE, RG, OLB, OC, and WR. On top of that, I watched a bit of Jake Locker this season. I think the team that ends up picking him is going to be pretty disappointed.

Locker has hype and not enough performance to justify being a mid-first round pick. Some team may reach to pick him based on desperation, need and hope. I trust that team is NOT the Patriots.

 

[Criptonite]

PS: If Gabbert gets in the right system, he could develop into a monster QB.

Gabbert has the size, strength, footwork, mechanics, etc. He has lots of what you look for in a QB. But some of the most important things like reading defenses and decision making are complete mysteries at this point. From all the games I've watched with him in that Mizzou offense, he constantly goes to his first option immediately. If it's not open, he scrambles around. I rate him as a 3rd round pick right now. I wouldn't be surprised if a team goes after him in the middle of the 2nd. Maybe he goes to workout for teams and just blows them away, but if that doesn't happen I cannot fathom him being selected in the first round. I agree that he could turn into a monster QB, but he could also be out of the league in 2 years. Extremely risky pick.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

I think Hoodie tends to take BPA regardless of position, but if it's not a position of true need, he'll trade out or trade down.

Seriously, though, what BB wants is maximum utility from top picks. In other words, given that (A) you have to pay the pick a fairly large salary (relative to the median salary for an NFL player), and (B) you have to cut a player already on your team to make room for that player, what player in the draft will provide the most benefit for that money? In 2008, for example, it was Mayo, who could basically play three downs from the get-go.

As an example of what would surprise me, assuming Crumpler is healthy and wants to return (he is signed through 2011), I can't fathom the Patriots drafting a TE in the first round; you'd be paying that player the same as Crumpler, for quite likely less production as a blocker.

 

[LiveShot]

Pats do not need to draft a quarterback yet at least not in the first 4 rounds. Depending on what happens to Light and Mankins will have a lot to do with the positions drafted. Center, guard, def end and speedy olb.