NFL executives offer their take on the Patriots and the trade possibilities for Jimmy Garoppolo

[Soul_Survivor88]

Sure, but there isn't an exact date to which father time adheres. Y'all are selling Brady too short.

I agree. You never want to underestimate Tom Brady. But the troubling thing about father time (aside from being inevitable) is that it often strikes precipitously, without warning.

In a short span of time, QBs can go from playing at elite, even historic levels, to seeing their body deteriorate and their skill decline. Recently, Peyton Manning went from throwing 55 touchdowns and passing for 5,0000+ yards, to becoming a former shell of himself in just over a year.

Granted, much of that decline was the accumulation of injuries Manning had suffered. Whereas Brady takes exceptional care of his health and has an intense dietary, fitness program to keep him in shape.

But as much as he might try, I think Brady will succumb to the physical toll of a violent, contact sport like football - and it might happen sooner than we think.

 

[Deus Irae]

I agree. You never want to underestimate Tom Brady. But the troubling thing about father time (aside from being inevitable) is that it often strikes precipitously, without warning.

In a short span of time, QBs can go from playing at elite, even historic levels, to seeing their body deteriorate and their skill decline. Recently, Peyton Manning went from throwing 55 touchdowns and passing for 5,0000+ yards, to becoming a former shell of himself in just over a year.

Granted, much of that decline was the accumulation of injuries Manning had suffered. Whereas Brady takes exceptional care of his health and has an intense dietary, fitness program to keep him in shape.

But as much as he might try, I think Brady will succumb to the physical toll of a violent, contact sport like football - and it might happen sooner than we think.

Manning's decline was related to an unusual injury, and he was still able to walk away after having 2 SB appearances in 3 years, and as the Lombardi winner at age 39. Let's look at other "modern" elites:

1. Elway - Retired at 38, coming off back-to-back Lombardis, and his career highest QB rating, and his 4th highest completion percentage
2. Moon - made the Pro Bowl at 41, was still starting at age 42, and was able to hang on to a backup spot until age 44. His play was up and down from 36 on, but there was no sudden collapse in his late 30's
3. Favre - Last 4 seasons were 13-3 and NFCG in Green Bay (95.7 QB rating), 9-7 in NY (Injured after 8-3), 12-4 and NFCG in Minnesota (107.2 rating) and then done, with a 5-8 record, at 41 years old.
4. Montana - For all his injuries, he still got the Chiefs to the playoffs both of his last two seasons, including an AFCCG appearance in his second-to-last season (direct number matchups wouldn't be particularly helpful because of the significant drop in moving from the 49ers to the Chiefs, but his QB ratings were always erratic, and the dropoff at the Chiefs was nothing significant in comparison to some of his later years in SF).
5. etc...

Despite what we frequently hear from the pundits, it's not all about a falling off the table with elite QBs.

 

[Fencer]

I apologize if you're stated it earlier in this thread, but on what do you base your contempt for Rohan Davey?

(By the way, you made an oopsie -- he actually was a 4th rounder.)

I'm not adding anything. I'm noting what was done. Hoyer was not drafted by the team. He was a UDFA. There's nothing wrong with that, but it it what it is. The reality of the Patriots QB wheel post-Brady is that the two best QBs to come out of it, at least prior to JAG, are the 7th round pick and the UDFA, while the 2 third round picks and the 5th round pick were all horseshit.

It's no shame to say "It's a small sample size, and QB is a very difficult position to hit on, and they've come up short there. But, hey, at least they made out pretty well with Hoyer, at least in terms of having a backup for a couple of years, and damned well with Cassel, right?". Instead, you minimized the draft capital expenditure and oversold the comparative return. A pair of 3rds for O'Connell and Mallet, when you've already got the GOAT, is certainly not investing "very little capital", for example. It's pissing away pretty good draft picks on terrible choices.

 

[Galeb]

I agree. You never want to underestimate Tom Brady. But the troubling thing about father time (aside from being inevitable) is that it often strikes precipitously, without warning.

In a short span of time, QBs can go from playing at elite, even historic levels, to seeing their body deteriorate and their skill decline. Recently, Peyton Manning went from throwing 55 touchdowns and passing for 5,0000+ yards, to becoming a former shell of himself in just over a year.

Granted, much of that decline was the accumulation of injuries Manning had suffered. Whereas Brady takes exceptional care of his health and has an intense dietary, fitness program to keep him in shape.

But as much as he might try, I think Brady will succumb to the physical toll of a violent, contact sport like football - and it might happen sooner than we think.

Keyword - might* Just like Jimmy might* become a franchise QB.

 

[1960Pats]

People talk about 2008 as if the Pats missed the playoffs because they didn't do enough to get in. The fact is 11-5 in most years gets you into the platoffs and it was a fluke they didn't. If they got in, who knows what they would have done. The Pats didn't miss the playoffs that year because of Cassel, they missed because of fluke that happens only every about 20 years.

Teams losing out on the playoffs to teams with worse records has become pretty common these days.

 

[Rob0729]

Just a reminder: we have six quarters. The Patriots have 2+ seasons of practices, meetings, etc.

If you read my posts, that is exactly what I said. We are making judgements on six quarters which is way too little of a sample size to make definitive decisions. I said the coaching staff knows far more about this guy.

 

[1960Pats]

Jimmy is a good QB, but his durability is questionable.
That said if someone offered us 21st round picks then I'd take that deal immediately!
That team may very well be Houston or even Cleveland.

I don't get the questionable durability label. Anyone could get hurt when a player uses that technique to take down a defenseless QB. The Pats did the same thing to the Cleveland QB. The defense probably has a catchy nickname for that kind of take-down.

 

[1960Pats]

To your point three. People forget that three years ago everyone was talking about the death of pocket passing QB and the future of QBs in the NFL was RG3 and Colin Kaepernick and most QBs going forward would be running QBs who were dual running and passing threats.

Although I don't know if Luck is a great example. Maybe by the overrated by the fans and media aspect, but he was good to great for a number of years before falling apart.

When was Luck great? I must have missed those seasons.

 

[1960Pats]

just as a fan of the patriots id prefer to see as many possible years of brady until he falls apart and dies, im willing to deal with the repercussions of that just on the lottery ticket chance that we see him win a ring at 43

There was a time not too long ago when I thought that Brady playing at 43 and winning a SB was a lottery ticket chance. Now it seems like more of a safe bet.

 

[1960Pats]

In 1993, a lot of Dolphins fans wanted their team to cut Dan Marino loose so they could move forward with Scott Mitchell.

Marino was a heck of a lot younger in 93 than Brady is now.

 

[mosslost]

I agree. You never want to underestimate Tom Brady. But the troubling thing about father time (aside from being inevitable) is that it often strikes precipitously, without warning.

In a short span of time, QBs can go from playing at elite, even historic levels, to seeing their body deteriorate and their skill decline. Recently, Peyton Manning went from throwing 55 touchdowns and passing for 5,0000+ yards, to becoming a former shell of himself in just over a year.

Granted, much of that decline was the accumulation of injuries Manning had suffered. Whereas Brady takes exceptional care of his health and has an intense dietary, fitness program to keep him in shape.

But as much as he might try, I think Brady will succumb to the physical toll of a violent, contact sport like football - and it might happen sooner than we think.

Peyton was using HGH though. I sure as hell hope Brady is all natural..

 

[PatsBoy12]

This will be a very interesting story for a while. I'll be watching very closely.

 

[mosslost]

There was a time not too long ago when I thought that Brady playing at 43 and winning a SB was a lottery ticket chance. Now it seems like more of a safe bet.

Patriots will be in the SB hunt for every year that Brady plays till he retires.

 

[1960Pats]

Except the "fluke" was they lost to 5 AFC teams that all made the playoffs. They win any one of those and lose to some **** NFC team instead and they are in. 2008 was one of my favorite teams to watch because all of the pressure/expectations were gone but at the end of the day they were not one of the best teams and did not deserve to be in the playoffs. With Brady I believe they win one more and are in

My feeling is that the team with the best record has earned the playoff spot, unless there's a tie. Then the FUFL is forced to come up with a winner by tie-breakers. They have to do it some way.

What has bothered me the most is the creation of these 4 team "divisions" in which a team only needs to have a better record than 3 of 15 other teams to make the playoffs, no matter what their record may be, and even if they were blown out by a team with a better record.

When the FUFL first came up with this brainstorm (I think to help rescue PEDton from the AFCE and to give him a free ride to the playoffs) there weren't many teams getting in with worse records than other teams. Over the last few years it has happened more often. That's just plain preposterous.

 

[XLIX]

I agree. You never want to underestimate Tom Brady. But the troubling thing about father time (aside from being inevitable) is that it often strikes precipitously, without warning.

In a short span of time, QBs can go from playing at elite, even historic levels, to seeing their body deteriorate and their skill decline. Recently, Peyton Manning went from throwing 55 touchdowns and passing for 5,0000+ yards, to becoming a former shell of himself in just over a year.

That's what happens when your 55-TD season is fueled by HGH, then you have to stop taking it because the league starts testing for it.

The above does not apply to Brady. He is the greatest QB of all time playing as well as he has ever played. Why so many are so eager to get rid of him based on his backup having 5 1/2 good quarters is beyond me.

 

[XLIX]

When the FUFL first came up with this brainstorm (I think to help rescue PEDton from the AFCE and to give him a free ride to the playoffs) there

 

[Deus Irae]

My feeling is that the team with the best record has earned the playoff spot, unless there's a tie. Then the FUFL is forced to come up with a winner by tie-breakers. They have to do it some way.

What has bothered me the most is the creation of these 4 team "divisions" in which a team only needs to have a better record than 3 of 15 other teams to make the playoffs, no matter what their record may be, and even if they were blown out by a team with a better record.

When the FUFL first came up with this brainstorm (I think to help rescue PEDton from the AFCE and to give him a free ride to the playoffs) there weren't many teams getting in with worse records than other teams. Over the last few years it has happened more often. That's just plain preposterous.

Go take a look at the National League in baseball from last year. Both wild card teams came from the same division, and both of them had better records than the two other division winners. Nobody got up in arms or lost their mind over it.

 

[Jetssuck]

A different sport, but Gordie Howe was 52 years old during his final season in the NHL. No reason to believe it's impossible for Tom Brady to play into his 50s.

 

[Raymond]

Then how do you rate a college QB in the Draft? You have a hell of a lot more information on Garrapolo now than any college QB.

The Pats need a successor. Brady is still great at 39, but what will he be at 41 at the end of the 2017 season, or 42 at the beginning of the 2018 season? Polo may not succeed, but one thing is certain. No one cheats Father Time forever.

Brady will not age 1.5 years every 12 months. He just turned 39 and will be 41 at the start of the start of the 2018 season.

 

[AzPatsFan]

If you ignore the fact that fact that they got multiple years of backup QB play for minimal cap hit from Hoyer, Mallett, Cassel and Garoppolo, then sure, you can call it disappointing. That's a strange thing to ignore, though, since it's the primary reason why they were drafted in the first place. Between Cassel, Hoyer, Mallett and Garoppolo the Pats have paid their primary backup QB peanuts against the cap for the past decade. Given that guys like Mallett, Hoyer and Matt Hasselbeck command a $2-3M cap hit, that's a fairly meaningful savings.

Again, it's not perfect, and I think it's fair to be disappointed in O'Connell and Mallett in particular, given that significant draft capital was invested into them. But it's pretty easy to see what the Pats' mindset is and why they do what they do, and they've clearly achieved what they set out to achieve in terms of QB development, and on a related-but-not-the-same note they've churned out as many competent NFL-caliber QBs as anyone, and more than most.

Definitely more than the 0-27 new Cleveland Browns.