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NFL Defensive Ends and 3-4 OLBs
Statistical Analysis of 74 NFL Defensive Ends, 2004 and 2005 seasons.
Here are the production rankings for 4-3 Defensive Ends and 3-4 OLBs. I combined the 2004 and 2005 season statistics to rank these players over a two year window. The two year window mitigates against once great players past their prime and also against one year wonders. I ranked them against the pass, against the run and combined.
I. Defensive End Rankings: Impact in the Passing Game, 2004 and 2005 Seasons
Abbreviation Key:
PR: Position Rank
S: Sacks
FFP: Forced fumbles in the passing game
PBU: Passes Broken Up
DE Statistical Notes:
For an NFL 4-3 DE or 3-4 OLB,
(a) a Forced Fumble is worth roughly 1/2 a turnover.
(b) a PBU is worth roughly ¼ of an interception.
(c) a PBU is worth roughly ½ of a forced fumble.
(d) a PBU has roughly the same value as a sack.
(e) The First Tie breaker in Position ranking for DEs is S + ((FFP + PBU/2) x 2). The second tie breaker is (FFP + PBU/2).
Pos. Rank, Player S(PR) FFP + PBU/2 (PR) PR aggregate
1.Peppers, Car 22(4) 11(2) 6
2.Freeney, Ind 27(1) 8(6) 7
3.Taylor, Cin 22(4) 10.5(3) 7
4.Rice, TB 26(2) 8(6) 8
5.Porter, Pitt(3-4) 18(8) 11.5(1) 9
6.Mathis, Ind 23(3) 7.5(7) 10
7.Schobel, Buff 20(6) 8(6) 12
8.Umenyiora, NYG 22(4) 6.5(9) 13
9.Foley,SD(3-4) 15(11) 10.5(3) 14
10.Kearse, Phi 16(10) 9.5(4) 14
11.Ellis, Dall 17(9) 9(5) 14
12.Kerney, Atl 20(6) 7(8) 14
13.Abraham, NYJ 21(5) 6.5(9) 14
14.W. Smith, NO 16(10) 8(6) 16
15.Hayward, JK 20(6) 6(10) 16
16.Allen, KC 20(6) 6(10) 16
17.A. Brown, Chi 12(14) 10.5(3) 17
18.Berry, Ar 21(5) 5(12) 17
19.Fisher, Sea 18(8) 6(10) 18
20.McGinest,NE(3-4)16(10) 6.5(9) 19
21.Hall, Det 17(9) 6(10) 19
22.Suggs, Balt 19(7) 5(12) 19
23.KGB, GB 22(4) 3(16) 20
24.Grant, NO 14(12) 6.5(9) 21
25.Vrabel,NE(3-4)***15(11) 5.5(11) 22
Burgess, Oak 19(7) 3.5(15) 22
***Because Vrabel changed to ILB in 2005, I used his 2003 and 2004 seasons as an OLB here.
II. Defensive End Rankings: Impact in the Running Game, 2004-2005
Abbreviations:
PR: Position Rank
STF: Stuffs For Loss against the run
TT-S: Tackles minus Sacks
Statistical Notes.
For an NFL DE:
(a) a tackle for loss in the run game has roughly the same value as 10 conventional tackles.
(b) a decade of tackles is considered the same value (72 or 79 is statistically negligible)
(c) the tie-breaker for pos. rank for DEs is (STFs x 10) + (TT– S). The second tie breaker is TFL-S.
Pos. Rank, Player STF(PR) TT-Sacks (PR) PR aggregate
1.Grant, NO 17(1) 128(2) 3
2.Schobel, Buf 17(1) 124(2) 3
3.Suggs, Balt 15(2) 109(4) 6
4.Kampman, GB 12(5) 138(1) 6
5.Taylor, Mia 13(4) 119(3) 7
6.Umenyiora, NYG 14(3) 107(4) 7
7.Okeafor, Ar 15(2) 87(6) 8
8.Spires, TB 12(5) 96(5) 10
9.Brown, Chi 13(4) 85(6) 10
10.Porter, Pitt 12(5) 93(5) 10
11.Fujita, Dall 7(10) 134(1) 11
12.Smith, Cin 8(9) 123(2) 11
13.Carter, Mia 11(6) 90(5) 11
14.Brock, Ind 12(5) 78(7) 12
15.Peppers, Car 10(7) 93(5) 12
16.Strahan, NYG 9(8) 101(4) 12
17.Kerney, Atl 9(8) 99(5) 13
18.Little, StL 10(7) 85(6) 13
19.Hall, Det 9(8) 91(5) 13
20.Smith, NO 9(8) 86(6) 14
21.Kelsay, Buff 10(7) 74(7) 14
22.Young, SF 10(7) 74(7) 14
23.McGinest, NE 8(9) 92(5) 14
24.Ellis, NYJ 9(8) 81(6) 14
25.Wistrom, Sea 8(9) 82(6) 15
III. Overall Defensive End Rankings, 2004 and 2005. Passing Game and Running Game Combined.
Abbreviation Key
PR: Position Rank
PR@Pass: Pos Rank against the Pass
PR@Run: Pos Rank against the Run
Statistical Note:
(a) Tie breaker for pos rank among DEs is impact against the pass.
Pos. Rank, Player PR@Pass PR@Run PR aggregate
1.Taylor, Cin 7 7 14
2.Schobel, Buff 12 3 15
3.Peppers, Car 6 12 18
4.Porter, Pitt(3-4) 9 10 19
5.Umenyiora, NYG 13 7 20
6.Freeney, Ind 7 16 23
7.Grant, NO 21 3 24
8.Suggs, Balt 19 6 25
9.Kerney, Atl 14 13 27
10.A. Brown, Chi 17 10 27
11.Rice, TB 8 21 29
12.Abraham, NYJ 14 16 30
13.W. Smith, NO 16 14 30
14.Foley,SD(3-4) 14 17 31
15.Okeafor, Ar 23 8 31
16.Mathis, Ind 10 22 32
17.Allen, KC 16 16 32
18.Hayward, JK 16 16 32
19.Hall, Det 19 13 32
20.Ellis, Dall 14 19 33
21.Berry, Ar 17 16 33
22.McGinest, NE(3-4)19 14 33
23.Kampman, GB 27 6 33
24.Fisher, Sea 18 16 34
25.Brock, Ind 23 12 35
26.Kearse, Phi 14 22 36
27.Little, StL 23 13 36
Observations.
1. When Brady said that Jason Taylor was the best defensive player he had ever played against, he may have been telling the truth, and not just buttering up the opposition.
2. I’m going to pay more attention to Aaron Schobel this year. He may be one of the more under appreciated players in the NFL.
3. I have always thought Peppers was an overrated player, stemming from his poor Super Bowl performance against the Pats. Now I have to give more credit to the Pats O-Line than even before. What an amazing performance they put on in that game.
4. McGinest may have been undervalued for his production against the run.
5. Players on the upswing: W. Smith NO, Umenyiora NYG, Allen KC. I think Smith could become one of the dominant DEs in the game going forward. He has a lot of leadership skills for a guy stuck on NO, and is excellent against the run and the pass. Any thoughts?
Statistical Analysis of 74 NFL Defensive Ends, 2004 and 2005 seasons.
Here are the production rankings for 4-3 Defensive Ends and 3-4 OLBs. I combined the 2004 and 2005 season statistics to rank these players over a two year window. The two year window mitigates against once great players past their prime and also against one year wonders. I ranked them against the pass, against the run and combined.
I. Defensive End Rankings: Impact in the Passing Game, 2004 and 2005 Seasons
Abbreviation Key:
PR: Position Rank
S: Sacks
FFP: Forced fumbles in the passing game
PBU: Passes Broken Up
DE Statistical Notes:
For an NFL 4-3 DE or 3-4 OLB,
(a) a Forced Fumble is worth roughly 1/2 a turnover.
(b) a PBU is worth roughly ¼ of an interception.
(c) a PBU is worth roughly ½ of a forced fumble.
(d) a PBU has roughly the same value as a sack.
(e) The First Tie breaker in Position ranking for DEs is S + ((FFP + PBU/2) x 2). The second tie breaker is (FFP + PBU/2).
Pos. Rank, Player S(PR) FFP + PBU/2 (PR) PR aggregate
1.Peppers, Car 22(4) 11(2) 6
2.Freeney, Ind 27(1) 8(6) 7
3.Taylor, Cin 22(4) 10.5(3) 7
4.Rice, TB 26(2) 8(6) 8
5.Porter, Pitt(3-4) 18(8) 11.5(1) 9
6.Mathis, Ind 23(3) 7.5(7) 10
7.Schobel, Buff 20(6) 8(6) 12
8.Umenyiora, NYG 22(4) 6.5(9) 13
9.Foley,SD(3-4) 15(11) 10.5(3) 14
10.Kearse, Phi 16(10) 9.5(4) 14
11.Ellis, Dall 17(9) 9(5) 14
12.Kerney, Atl 20(6) 7(8) 14
13.Abraham, NYJ 21(5) 6.5(9) 14
14.W. Smith, NO 16(10) 8(6) 16
15.Hayward, JK 20(6) 6(10) 16
16.Allen, KC 20(6) 6(10) 16
17.A. Brown, Chi 12(14) 10.5(3) 17
18.Berry, Ar 21(5) 5(12) 17
19.Fisher, Sea 18(8) 6(10) 18
20.McGinest,NE(3-4)16(10) 6.5(9) 19
21.Hall, Det 17(9) 6(10) 19
22.Suggs, Balt 19(7) 5(12) 19
23.KGB, GB 22(4) 3(16) 20
24.Grant, NO 14(12) 6.5(9) 21
25.Vrabel,NE(3-4)***15(11) 5.5(11) 22
Burgess, Oak 19(7) 3.5(15) 22
***Because Vrabel changed to ILB in 2005, I used his 2003 and 2004 seasons as an OLB here.
II. Defensive End Rankings: Impact in the Running Game, 2004-2005
Abbreviations:
PR: Position Rank
STF: Stuffs For Loss against the run
TT-S: Tackles minus Sacks
Statistical Notes.
For an NFL DE:
(a) a tackle for loss in the run game has roughly the same value as 10 conventional tackles.
(b) a decade of tackles is considered the same value (72 or 79 is statistically negligible)
(c) the tie-breaker for pos. rank for DEs is (STFs x 10) + (TT– S). The second tie breaker is TFL-S.
Pos. Rank, Player STF(PR) TT-Sacks (PR) PR aggregate
1.Grant, NO 17(1) 128(2) 3
2.Schobel, Buf 17(1) 124(2) 3
3.Suggs, Balt 15(2) 109(4) 6
4.Kampman, GB 12(5) 138(1) 6
5.Taylor, Mia 13(4) 119(3) 7
6.Umenyiora, NYG 14(3) 107(4) 7
7.Okeafor, Ar 15(2) 87(6) 8
8.Spires, TB 12(5) 96(5) 10
9.Brown, Chi 13(4) 85(6) 10
10.Porter, Pitt 12(5) 93(5) 10
11.Fujita, Dall 7(10) 134(1) 11
12.Smith, Cin 8(9) 123(2) 11
13.Carter, Mia 11(6) 90(5) 11
14.Brock, Ind 12(5) 78(7) 12
15.Peppers, Car 10(7) 93(5) 12
16.Strahan, NYG 9(8) 101(4) 12
17.Kerney, Atl 9(8) 99(5) 13
18.Little, StL 10(7) 85(6) 13
19.Hall, Det 9(8) 91(5) 13
20.Smith, NO 9(8) 86(6) 14
21.Kelsay, Buff 10(7) 74(7) 14
22.Young, SF 10(7) 74(7) 14
23.McGinest, NE 8(9) 92(5) 14
24.Ellis, NYJ 9(8) 81(6) 14
25.Wistrom, Sea 8(9) 82(6) 15
III. Overall Defensive End Rankings, 2004 and 2005. Passing Game and Running Game Combined.
Abbreviation Key
PR: Position Rank
PR@Pass: Pos Rank against the Pass
PR@Run: Pos Rank against the Run
Statistical Note:
(a) Tie breaker for pos rank among DEs is impact against the pass.
Pos. Rank, Player PR@Pass PR@Run PR aggregate
1.Taylor, Cin 7 7 14
2.Schobel, Buff 12 3 15
3.Peppers, Car 6 12 18
4.Porter, Pitt(3-4) 9 10 19
5.Umenyiora, NYG 13 7 20
6.Freeney, Ind 7 16 23
7.Grant, NO 21 3 24
8.Suggs, Balt 19 6 25
9.Kerney, Atl 14 13 27
10.A. Brown, Chi 17 10 27
11.Rice, TB 8 21 29
12.Abraham, NYJ 14 16 30
13.W. Smith, NO 16 14 30
14.Foley,SD(3-4) 14 17 31
15.Okeafor, Ar 23 8 31
16.Mathis, Ind 10 22 32
17.Allen, KC 16 16 32
18.Hayward, JK 16 16 32
19.Hall, Det 19 13 32
20.Ellis, Dall 14 19 33
21.Berry, Ar 17 16 33
22.McGinest, NE(3-4)19 14 33
23.Kampman, GB 27 6 33
24.Fisher, Sea 18 16 34
25.Brock, Ind 23 12 35
26.Kearse, Phi 14 22 36
27.Little, StL 23 13 36
Observations.
1. When Brady said that Jason Taylor was the best defensive player he had ever played against, he may have been telling the truth, and not just buttering up the opposition.
2. I’m going to pay more attention to Aaron Schobel this year. He may be one of the more under appreciated players in the NFL.
3. I have always thought Peppers was an overrated player, stemming from his poor Super Bowl performance against the Pats. Now I have to give more credit to the Pats O-Line than even before. What an amazing performance they put on in that game.
4. McGinest may have been undervalued for his production against the run.
5. Players on the upswing: W. Smith NO, Umenyiora NYG, Allen KC. I think Smith could become one of the dominant DEs in the game going forward. He has a lot of leadership skills for a guy stuck on NO, and is excellent against the run and the pass. Any thoughts?