I have the 2014 Patriots' current cap number as $122,300,000. The following factors will change that:
Rule of 51 — In the offseason, the only base salaries or tenders that count against the team salary cap are those of the players with the 51 highest cap numbers on the team. The Patriots already have 53 players on their 2014 roster which means that the salaries of any additional players less than $495,000 will not count against the cap.
Voided years — I am projecting that no Patriot had voided years in their contracts. By rule, the prorated signing bonuses from the voided years would have accelerated into 2013, and, after using the remaining 2013 cap space, would have carried over into 2008.
Street Free Agents — I expect the Patriots to sign 8 street free agents (Braxston Cave, Jordan Devey, Justin Green, Ja'Gared Davis, Kanorris Davis, Cierre Wood, Marcus Forston, R.J. Dill) at the rookie minimum of $420,000.
Exclusive Rights Free agents - The Patriots do not have any players eligible for exclusive rights free agency.
Restricted free agents. The Patriots do not have any players eligible for restricted free agency.
Minimum salary increase — Any player whose base salary specified in his contract is lower than the minimum salary for a player of his experience level is automatically given a raise to the minimum salary. For 2014, this situation does NOT apply to a Patriots player.
Proven Performance Escalator - As part of the new CBA there is a proven performance escalator for draft picks chosen in Round 3 through 7. Chris White, Stevan Ridley, Ryan Mallett, and Marcus Cannon are eligible for it in 2014. An eligible player will qualify for the Proven Performance Escalator in his fourth League Year if: (1) he participated in a minimum of 35% of his Club's offensive or defensive plays in any two of his previous three regular seasons; or (2) he participated in a "cumulative average" of at least 35% of his Club's offensive or defensive plays over his previous three regular seasons. Stevan Ridley played in 14% of the offensive snaps in 2011, 44% in 2012, and 29% so far in 2013. Marcus Cannon played in 16% of the offensive snaps in 2011, 14% of the offensive snaps in 2012 and 36% so far in 2013. Chris White has played in 0% of the defensive snaps in 2012, 0% of the defensive snaps in 2013. Ryan Mallett played in 0% of the offensive snaps in 2011, 0% of the offensive snaps in 2012, and 0% of the offensive snaps in 2013. None of the 4 players are on pace to reach the escalator. If they do reach the escalator, their 2014 salary would increase to around $1.39 million.
McCourty's escalator - Devin McCourty has a $3.2 million escalator clause for the 2014 season. He has already increased his 2014 salary by $50,000. Do not know the terms of the escalator. There is a chance that Devin has done enough to increase his salary by $3.2 million.
2014 LTBE incentives - Some players had NTLBE incentives in their contracts for the 2013 season but by reaching them made them LTBE for the 2014 season making them count against the 2014 cap immediately. Amendola has a $31,250 per game roster bonus. He played in 11 games in 2012 last year so his LTBE amount in 2013 was 343,750 (31,250 *11). He is on pace to play in 12 games in 2013 making his LTBE incentive in 2014 $375,000 an increase of $31,250. Ninkovich has a 250,000 playing time incentive for 2014 that is based on him playing 75 percent of the defensive snaps. He has played 95 percent of the defensive snaps this year which would make this incentive LTBE in 2014. Steve Gregory has a $750,000 playing time incentive. Details are not known. But since Gregory played in 67% of the defensive snaps last year it appears that the trigger is more than 67% since the playing time incentive is not considered LTBE. He has played in 68% of the defensive snaps this year
Not reached 2013 LTBE incentives - I have already adjusted Mayo's and Tommie Kelly's per-game roster bonuses. I have made Mayo's 2013 LTBE Pro Bowl incentive NTLBE for 2014.
Incentives adjustment - I think that more Patriots reached their incentives than did not which will decrease the amount of cap space that the Pats can carry over into 2014. Reached NTLBE incentives - Svitek's per game $10,000 roster bonus. He has played in 10 games this year. Edelman's receptions incentives has earned him $250,000. It is likely that Talib will earn his $500,000 Pro Bowl bonus. It is also likely that Michael Hoomanawanui will reach his one of his playing time incentives ($125,000 if he plays 25 percent of snaps; $250,000 if he plays 35 percent of snaps; $370,000 if he plays 45 percent of snaps). Not reached LTBE incentives - Mayo's 300,000 Pro Bowl incentive. Still to be determined - Slater's 300,000 LTBE Pro Bowl incentive, Ninkovich's 200,000 LTBE Pro Bowl incentive, Svitek's 500,000 playing time incentive, Steve Gregory's $750,000 playing time incentive)
Aaron Hernandez's grievances - Aaron Hernandez has filed two grievances - one for regarding his $82,000 offseason workout bonus money and another regarding his 2013 guaranteed salary of $1,323,000, 2014 guaranteed salary of $1,137,000, and his 2014 guaranteed $500,000 offseason workout bonus money. There are two amounts involved - the 232,800 offseason workout amount is 40 percent of the offseason workout grievance amount. The 984,800 salary amount is 40 percent of the salary that is being contested in the second grievance. From the CBA - "When a player salary grievance is filed against a Club, 40% of the amount claimed (or, for a player whose contract qualifies under Article 27, 40% of the player'S Salary Cap count, prorated to reflect the number of weeks remaining in the regular season) will be counted in Team Salary until the grievance is resolved or until the end of the League Year, whichever comes first.If Aaron wins his grievances before the end of 2013 League Year, another 1,825,200 will hit the Patriots 2013 cap. If he wins his grievances during the 2014 League Year, I believe that the 1,825,200 will hit the 2014 cap. If Aaron loses his grievances, the Pats will get a credit of $1,217,600.
