Based on betting lines, this is what Vegas "predicts" for the Pats/Cowboys: Final Score approx Pats 29 Cowboys 23 (based on line of 6, and over under of 52.5) first half score Pats 15 Cowboys 12 (Pats -3, o/u 26.5) Pats odds of winning outright approx 72% (based on money line, bet 255 to win 100) Cowboys odds of winning outright approx 32% (bet 100 to win 215) If you were forced to bet on this game, which do you see as the best bet? My personal opinion is this: -I like the Pats on the money line. 6 on the road to a good team is sketchy, and only 255 to win 100 isn't bad return. -I'm not strong either way on the over/under. I can see the Pats scoring more than the 29 predicted, but I can see the Boys scoring less the 23 too. I would tend to go under because the o/u is very high. Chances of any game going over 52.5 aren't good, and when you have a very high o/u anything unpredictable usually makes it an under (just like over on low o/us hit more often that under). -I definitely like under for the first half. If I lost that I would bet under in the 2nd half. I find it very much against the odds that you could go over 26.5 in both halves. My bets (assuming a budget of about $500) would be: Pats money line for 255. Under in the first half for 150. Under for the game for 100. To come out ahead, I would need the Pats to win and EITHER under in the first half of for the game. If the Pats lose, I need under in both to break even. If I lose the under in the first half, I bet the under in the 2nd half. If I win the under, I rebet the 150 (pocketing the win) for the second half on either: -Pats -3 if they are ahead and the money line bet looks good. -Under again, if the game is close (of course how the game is going will dictate) -Over in the second half if it is a close game. (2nd half o/u may be dictated by 1st half injuries too) PLEASE CRITIQUE MY PLAN.