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Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by AndyJohnson, Oct 13, 2007.

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  1. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Based on betting lines, this is what Vegas "predicts" for the Pats/Cowboys:

    Final Score approx Pats 29 Cowboys 23 (based on line of 6, and over under of 52.5)

    first half score Pats 15 Cowboys 12 (Pats -3, o/u 26.5)


    Pats odds of winning outright approx 72% (based on money line, bet 255 to win 100)
    Cowboys odds of winning outright approx 32% (bet 100 to win 215)

    If you were forced to bet on this game, which do you see as the best bet?
    My personal opinion is this:
    -I like the Pats on the money line. 6 on the road to a good team is sketchy, and only 255 to win 100 isn't bad return.
    -I'm not strong either way on the over/under. I can see the Pats scoring more than the 29 predicted, but I can see the Boys scoring less the 23 too. I would tend to go under because the o/u is very high. Chances of any game going over 52.5 aren't good, and when you have a very high o/u anything unpredictable usually makes it an under (just like over on low o/us hit more often that under).
    -I definitely like under for the first half. If I lost that I would bet under in the 2nd half. I find it very much against the odds that you could go over 26.5 in both halves.

    My bets (assuming a budget of about $500) would be:
    Pats money line for 255.
    Under in the first half for 150.
    Under for the game for 100.

    To come out ahead, I would need the Pats to win and EITHER under in the first half of for the game.
    If the Pats lose, I need under in both to break even.

    If I lose the under in the first half, I bet the under in the 2nd half.
    If I win the under, I rebet the 150 (pocketing the win) for the second half on either:
    -Pats -3 if they are ahead and the money line bet looks good.
    -Under again, if the game is close (of course how the game is going will dictate)
    -Over in the second half if it is a close game.
    (2nd half o/u may be dictated by 1st half injuries too)

    PLEASE CRITIQUE MY PLAN.
  2. Herndz31

    Herndz31 Rookie

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    Here is a suggestion. Avoid betting on the Pats please. Sit back enjoy the game and watch the Pats come out victorious. Use that five hundred bucks and throw yourself a Sunday bash. Invite friends, family and definetely a few Cowboy fans. Watch them bandwagon fans fall victim to the hands of the Commander and Chief (Tom Brady)....
  3. aluminum seats

    aluminum seats Rookie

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    Seems a bit busy to me. Also, I hate over/unders, just a personal preference. I think the Pats roll, so lay the 5.5, or 6 if that's what you're seeing.
  4. kurtinelson

    kurtinelson Rookie

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    #37 Jersey

    I think the under is the right bet. I always take the under when the number gets that high. I saw a statistic recently that the highest point total in games featuring 2 5-0 teams was 20. (This was a game a few years ago when the Pats beat the Jets something like 13 to 7).

    Personnally, I'd prefer to bet the money line and keep riding the Patriots streak of covering the spread.

    This week I'm going with a 3 team 7 point teaser that pays +140:

    Pats +1 over Dallas
    Titans +10 over Tampa
    Jets +10.5 over Philly
  5. RayClay

    RayClay On the Roster

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    #75 Jersey

    This has been my plan. Of course working in Florida since 2000, it's probably cost me the equivalent of a C-class Mercedes, but a Pats win is priceless to me.:)
  6. alamo

    alamo praedica numerum! PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Here's my suggestion to you. Turn off the TV during the game. Go outside and spend some time with your family.

    See how ridiculous such suggestions are?
  7. Truck

    Truck Rookie

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    Where can one place bets in the northeast? Can it be done at foxwoods?
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