Next opponent Colts 2007 v. 2008 convnetional wisdom-maybe not...

[Patsfanin Philly]

Pats next opponent Colts- 2008 vs 2007 Conventional wisdom

1)[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]The conventional wisdom is that teams are running on the Colts because they can but the numbers don’t bear this out.
Through the first 7 games last year teams rushed 185 times for 752 yards 4.1ypc.
Through the first 7 games this year they have rushed 240 times for 1009 yards 4.2 ypc
Could it be that teams are running more this year not because they are getting better yardage, but as a clock control mechanism to limit the number of drives the Colts have? Conventional wisdom is that if you give Peyton Manning enough possessions, he will score, even recovering from an injury. In 2007 they scored at least 5 times in each of their first 7 games. This year only once have they scored five times in a game..
In 2007 thru 7 games Colts had 71 drives and scored on 39 of them (55% of the time). In 2008 they are scoring on 23/74 (31%) So they are getting the same number of possession, they just aren’t scoring…

2)[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]PENALTIES- In 2007 thru 7 games, Colts had 29 accepted penalties (4.1 per game) while in 2008 they have had 51 accepted penalties in the same 7 games (7.3 per game) That screaming you just heard was Bill Polian yelling at Mike Perreira. I didn’t break down penalties at home and on the road because the sample size isn’t large enough yet.

Bottom line, it’s not the Colts defense, it’s their offense and penalties that are hurting them,..

 

[captadamnj]

Re: Next opponent Colts 2007 v 2008 Convnetional wisdom-maybe not...

Manning injury? What injury (says BB)?

I'm sure the increase in carries is related to time of possession. Given that the efficiency of the Dolts O is down, I would think their TOP is down (sorry, I didn't go look it up). So if the opponents have a greater TOP, given the success of running the rock at 4+ YPC, you would expect more attempts.

The Dolts O simply isn't what it was, plain and simple. Their o-line has a lot to do with it, and the loss of Stokely and decline of Harrison isn't helping.

 

[Watson's IQ]

Re: Next opponent Colts 2007 v 2008 Convnetional wisdom-maybe not...

The Dolts O simply isn't what it was, plain and simple. Their o-line has a lot to do with it, and the loss of Stokely and decline of Harrison isn't helping.

Agreed, but I'd say the lion's share is that Manning is clearly not 100%, regardless of what the injury report says. Manning, along with Brady, is the smartest quarterback in the NFL, and I don't think that's changed, so the mistakes he's making have to be a function of his physical condition.

That said, look out for Wayne on Sunday. As my fantasy team can attest, he's been held pretty well in check the past couple weeks, so I'd expect Manning to get him involved early and often.

 

[TheGodInAGreyHoodie]

Re: Next opponent Colts 2007 v 2008 Convnetional wisdom-maybe not...

Of course the yards are in large part because of the clock management. The fallacy of you need to establish the run to win and teams with who run more win more often than teams who pass more.

Fact is teams with a big lead at the half win more often than not, and also run a lot in the second half. Teams that are down at the half, throw a lot and also lose a lot.

Run vs. Pass breakdowns of the first half have no correlation with wins.

 

[Ring 6]

Re: Next opponent Colts 2007 v 2008 Convnetional wisdom-maybe not...

Pats next opponent Colts- 2008 vs 2007 Conventional wisdom

1)[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]The conventional wisdom is that teams are running on the Colts because they can but the numbers don’t bear this out.
Through the first 7 games last year teams rushed 185 times for 752 yards 4.1ypc.
Through the first 7 games this year they have rushed 240 times for 1009 yards 4.2 ypc
Could it be that teams are running more this year not because they are getting better yardage, but as a clock control mechanism to limit the number of drives the Colts have? Conventional wisdom is that if you give Peyton Manning enough possessions, he will score, even recovering from an injury. In 2007 they scored at least 5 times in each of their first 7 games. This year only once have they scored five times in a game..
In 2007 thru 7 games Colts had 71 drives and scored on 39 of them (55% of the time). In 2008 they are scoring on 23/74 (31%) So they are getting the same number of possession, they just aren’t scoring…

2)[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]PENALTIES- In 2007 thru 7 games, Colts had 29 accepted penalties (4.1 per game) while in 2008 they have had 51 accepted penalties in the same 7 games (7.3 per game) That screaming you just heard was Bill Polian yelling at Mike Perreira. I didn’t break down penalties at home and on the road because the sample size isn’t large enough yet.

Bottom line, it’s not the Colts defense, it’s their offense and penalties that are hurting them,..

The answer is in between. Rushing D yards depends on getting off the field on D AND staying on the field on O. No doubt the offense sucking contributes a lot to those #s. (There is no way IMO, that teams are running more to keep Manning off the field this year than last year) But you cannot measure run D solely by ypc, especially the Colts. The Colts run D frankly is either much better or much worse than the raw numbers indicate when you look at what is really happening. The Colts style of D absolutley accepts being exposed to the run. Without question they accept that they will give up good runs pretty consistently. That is the sacrifice for being an undersized rush the passer first, find the run on the way style of defense, and they make it willingly.
The HUGE difference is that in OUR defense 4.1 yards per carry is a pretty consistent 4.1 (USUALLY or by design) because we are playing to limit the big play, at the expense of making the big play. The Colt D accepts allowing the big play in order to get the big play. The success of the Colt run D is not really the overall#s but how often they blow up a run play for a loss. If they are doing a lot of that, but at the same time allowing a few long runs, the raw stats look worse, but the D plays better (ie 2006). This year the rush attempts and yards are higher because they are consistently getting run over. They have fewer tackles for loss which go a long way toward stopping drives, and the ypc is lower because intead of giving up 50 yard runs, they are giving up 11 runs for 50 yards. The 50 yards, not the # of rushes is the important part here, when combined with the lack of tackles for losses.
To summarize many negative plays and many positive plays is the Colt D working properly.
Lack of negative plays and lack of positive play (large ones) is the Colt D in trouble.
You wont see that in ypc #s.