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Discussion in 'Patriots Draft Talk' started by dryheat44, Mar 26, 2008.

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  1. dryheat44

    dryheat44 Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    #75 Jersey

    After re-working the board, and keeping with a Patriot-centric emphasis, here's how the board shapes up. Some high-profile guys, like McFadden and Ryan, are missing since they'll be gone long, long before the Patriots would consider drafting them. I could probably do the same with others on the list (Rodgers-Cromartie, Felix Jones), but given the rises and falls of the weeks leading up to the draft, I've kept them on, so if the man made the first version, he's still here. Remember, this is where their value to the 2008 New England Patriots would be, as seen through the eyes of the senile Uncle, so guys with injury or character issues are farther down than they would otherwise be so as to minimize risk, if they haven't been altogether removed.


    Tier 1 -- Value #1-#8
    Jake Long OT Michigan
    Chris Long LB Virginia

    Tier 2 -- Value #9-#20
    Vernon Gholston LB Ohio St
    Ryan Clady OT Boise St
    Quentin Groves LB Auburn
    Glenn Dorsey DE LSU
    Sedric Ellis DE USC

    Tier 3 -- Value #21-#35
    Andre Caldwell WR Florida
    Devin Thomas WR Michigan St
    Brandon Albert G Virginia
    Aqib Talib CB Kansas
    Leodis McKelvin CB Troy
    Antoine Cason CB Arizona

    Tier 4 -- Value #36-#55
    Jonathan Stewart RB Oregon
    Felix Jones RB Arkansas
    Limas Sweed WR Texas
    Malcolm Kelly WR Oklahoma
    Early Doucett WR LSU
    Chris Williams OT Vanderbilt
    Anthony Collins OT Kansas
    Gosder Cherilus OT Boston College
    Cliff Avril LB Purdue
    Erin Henderson LB Maryland
    Jerod Mayo LB Tennessee
    Johnathan Goff LB Vanderbilt
    Branden Flowers CB Virginia Tech
    Reggie Smith DB Oklahoma

    Tier 5 -- Value #56-#75
    Chad Henne QB Michigan
    Joe Flacco QB Delaware
    Eddie Royal WR Virginia Tech
    Earl Bennett WR Vanderbilt
    Eric Young G Tennessee
    Sam Baker G USC
    Ezra Butler OLB Nevada
    Derrick Harvey OLB Florida
    Pat Sims DE Auburn
    Trevor Laws DE Notre Dame
    Kentwan Balmer DE North Carolina
    Red Bryant NT Texas A&M
    Tracy Porter CB Indiana
    Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie CB Tennessee St
    Quentin Demps S UTEP
    Josh Barrett Arizona St

    Tier 6 -- Value #76-#100
    Matt Forte RB Tulane
    Brad Cottam TE Tennessee
    Oneil Cousins OL UTEP
    Charles Godfrey CB Iowa
    Chevis Jackson DB LSU
    Tom Zbikowski S Notre Dame
    Jamar Adams S Michigan

    Tier 7 -- Value #101-#125
    Kevin Smith RB Central Florida
    Chris Johnson RB East Carolina
    Tashard Choice RB Georgia Tech
    Owen Schmitt FB/TE West Virginia
    John Greco OT Toledo
    Duane Brown OT Virginia Tech
    Mike Pollack C Arizona St
    Stanford Keglar LB Purdue
    Jeremy Thompson LB Wake Forest
    Ahtyba Rubin NT Iowa St
    Frank Okam NT Texas
    Jack Williams CB Kent St
    Patrick Lee S Auburn
    Derrick Doggett S Oregon St
    Wesley Woodyard S Kentucky

    Tier 8 -- Value #126-#150
    Erik Ainge QB Tennessee
    Josh Johnson QB San Diego
    Ray Rice RB Rutgers
    Lavelle Hawkins WR California
    Darius Reynard WR West Virginia
    Paul Hubbard WR Wisconsin
    Kevin Robinson WR Utah St
    Craig Stevens TE California
    Jeremy Zuttah G Rutgers
    Kory Lichtensteiger C Bowling Green
    John Sullivan C Notre Dame
    Chase Ortiz ILB TCU
    Trevor Scott OLB Buffalo
    Gary Guyton OLB Georgia Tech
    Bryan Kehl OLB BYU
    Nick Hayden DE Wisconsin
    Marcus Harrison DE Arkansas
    Kellen Dykes DE West Virginia
    Dwight Lowery CB San Jose St.
    Jonathan Zenon CB LSU
    Jonathan Wilhite CB Auburn
    Antwan Molden CB Eastern Kentucky
    Craig Steltz S LSU

    Tier 9 -- Value #151-#200
    Sam Keller QB Nebraska
    Thomas Brown RB Georgia
    Jacob Hester RB LSU
    Chauncey Washington RB USC
    Jalen Parmele RB Toledo
    Jerome Simpson WR Coastal Carolina
    Gary Barnidge TE Louisville
    Kellen Davis TE Michigan St
    Drew Miller C Florida
    Drew Radovich G USC
    Hilee Taylor LB North Carolina
    Jeremy Leman LB Illinois
    Jack Ikeguonu CB Wisconsin

    Tier 10 -- Value #201-UDFA
    Seth Adams QB Mississippi
    Albert Young RB Iowa
    Marcus Thomas RB UTEP
    Keon Lattimore RB Maryland
    Justin Beaver RB Wisconsin - Whitewater
    Peyton Hillis FB Arkansas
    Marcus Henry WR Kansas
    Roderick Johnson ILB Oklahoma St
    Kaleb Thornhill ILB Michigan St
    Martail Burnett ILB Utah
    Jeff Van Orsow ILB Oregon St
    Rudy Hardie ILB Howard
    Marc Magro ILB West Virginia
    Casper Brinkley OLB South Carolina
    Jonal Saint-Dic OLB Michigan St
    Andy Studebaker OLB Wheaton
    Bob Williams S Bethune-Cookman
     
    Last edited: Mar 26, 2008
  2. mike100915

    mike100915 On the Game Day Roster

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    I think Gholston has to be in tier 1. He performance is just as good as Chris Long's. Also, I think Groves should be moved down to tier 3. I'm just not as high on him as the others are. As good as Jake Long is, I'm don't think he is a Franchise LT. He'll be an excellent pro, but he'll never be a lock down LT. Yes, he was good at Michigan, but he can be beat handly by speed rushers. In the NFL, he'll deal with them 85% of the time. I'll still love to see him there at #7, but I think when it comes to tier 1 players. It's Chris Long, Vernon Gholston, and Glenn Dorsey.
     
  3. dryheat44

    dryheat44 Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    #75 Jersey

    Dorsey's probably the best football player in the draft. I moved him down a tier because I don't think he represents top 8 draft pick value to the Patriots with Seymour, Warren, and Green all under contract. That being said, if they traded down to, say, 15, and he was still there by some fluky development, they'd probably take him and worry about it later.
     
  4. cstjohn17

    cstjohn17 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #54 Jersey

    Wow, you love this stuff.

    My interpretation (assuming no trade downs) is that you expect:
    Pick #7 - the Pats to get a player from Tier 2 (maybe, maybe, maybe Tier 1)
    Pick #62 - maybe Tier #4, likely Tier 5
    Pick #69 - Tier 5
    Pick #94 - Tier 6, maybe Tier 5

    I could live with that, on paper we would get 1 starter and 2-3 quality reserves at LB and CB.

    Comments
    - you may be overating the LBs, it is easy to do because we focus so much energy on 'future' Patriot LBs
    - you are clearly not high on Harvey, but Tier5? Wow, I can respect a man who holds a grudge
     
  5. BradyManny

    BradyManny Pro Bowl Player

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    Thanks for posting - great stuff as usual.
     
  6. dryheat44

    dryheat44 Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    #75 Jersey

    I wouldn't expect we would need to go below Tier 5 in the first three rounds. When I mocked it out, there was still a player or two in Tier 4 that were still there, although I've since adjusted. Different draft boards for different teams.

    I'm unaware of the grudge of which you speak.
     
    Last edited: Mar 26, 2008
  7. mike100915

    mike100915 On the Game Day Roster

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    I disagree with your assesement of Glenn Dorsey. Yes, he is more suited to be a 4-3 tackle, but so was Vince Wilfork. Give Dorsey a year in this system and he will be more dominant then Wilfork is. With the recent play and health concerns of Richard Seymour, I don't think passing on Dorsey would make any sense. He won't be there come #7 anyways, but he's a football player, who can play effectively in any system.
     
  8. BradyManny

    BradyManny Pro Bowl Player

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    What do you think of Chris Williams for the Pats? I see you have him in Tier 4, but if the Pats could trade down to the middle or end of round 1, he would certainly be one of the guys on my list who I'd be hoping for them to get. I've been on the Clady bandwagon and in general think the OL could use some help, Williams later in the draft may present better value than Clady.
     
  9. mike100915

    mike100915 On the Game Day Roster

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    I personally believe taking an OL at #7 would be a mistake. That have alot more issues on defense. OL wasn't a problem at all last year until the Super Bowl. They can add more depth in the OL in rounds 4 and 5.
     
  10. Metaphors

    Metaphors In the Starting Line-Up

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    First off, I think this type of exercise is more interesting than a mock draft. Miss the prediction on a guy early and it can domino the rest of the selections into oblivion.

    Now...I agree with your selection Jake and also agree with others wanting to put Gholston in tier 1. I am still missing the love for Chris Long in the Patriots' system. I've seen him play in a handful of games in the last few years and I don't see an easy transition to OLB. He hasn't done it before and the success he has had at DE (inside penetration) translates marginally to OLB.

    Chris Long is a fine player and I think he would do really well in St. Louis, Oakland or Cincinnati as a disruptive DE in both the passing and running game. I could see a team taking him on as a conversion project at pick #20 because he has refined skills and football seems very important to him. I can't see taking him at #1, #6 or #7 and crossing your fingers on a huge cash investment.

    Gholston has played with his hand off the ground, but he seemed more effective playing as a traditional DE. That being said, his outside speed rush and ability to engage blockers on the edge seem to translate better to what is expected of a Pats OLB.

    Anyone out there who has seen Chris Long play in games (highlights always look good and combine numbers are of marginal worth) have a different assessment about his game at UVA and how it would translate to a Pats OLB?
     
  11. dryheat44

    dryheat44 Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    #75 Jersey

    Yes several times. I am, and have this entire time, pegged Chris Long as a 3-4 ILB. Not that he couldn't play OLB, but I see him more in the role of taking on and overpowering guards and fullbacks near the line of scrimmage. He'd also be near unstoppable running stunts from the inside, much like the Giants used Justin Tuck at times this past season.
     
  12. dryheat44

    dryheat44 Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    #75 Jersey

    Wilfork has about 50 lbs on Dorsey. Seymour and Warren have more bulk than Dorsey. Dorsey's position in the 3-4 is end, and it's hard to justify the Patriots taking a #4 defensive end at #7 overall this year.
     
  13. Metaphors

    Metaphors In the Starting Line-Up

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    My mistake. Everyone else seems to peg him as an OLB and I just don't see it...at least not without a lengthy conversion process.

    Your description makes a lot more sense. I could see a transition to ILB being much easier. Not that he has done it before...just that his strength, moves and pursuit intensity (hate the term "motor") seem like a natural fit as a Pats ILB.

    Now the question becomes one of cap value. Is the ILB projection for Long that much better than what they could get from someone like Goff in round 3? Taken another way...would you rather have:

    ILB Long and CB Patrick Lee

    or trade down, get additional picks and get something like:

    CB Cromartie and ILB Goff
    or
    OLB Harvey and CB Cason

    Very interesting to think about. Best part is that the 2008 defense should get a solid infusion of youth/speed regardless.
     
  14. mike100915

    mike100915 On the Game Day Roster

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    I think Dorsey could play all 3 on the positions on the DL. With the lack of production coming out of Richard Seymour, picking Dorsey wouldn't be such a bad thing. It would also allow them to do even more thing on defense. It would also be a safer pick then say a Ryan Clady. They will not take a corner at #7, so passing on Dorsey would be foolish. This is probably a moot point, because he probably won't get past Atlanta anyways. His pro day is today as well.
     
  15. Metaphors

    Metaphors In the Starting Line-Up

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    Your description would be fine if the Pats were picking at #31...

    <deep breath to let the bad feelings pass>

    ...but I would hope that if the Pats pick in the top 10 they will end up with a player who is a significant improvement over whoever is starting now at his position. You can go hatin' on Seymour but taking Dorsey doesn't work for me unless you trade someone first. I don't see that happening.
     
  16. BradyManny

    BradyManny Pro Bowl Player

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    I agree the defense has more needs, but like with your rationale for selecting Dorsey at #7, I would consider taking the best OL available at 7 if Gholston is gone and we can't trade down (which I am increasingly becoming convinced we will be able to, so the point may be moot.)

    My OL concerns are three-fold - one, I think Kaczur can be upgraded; two, Matt Light will eventually need a replacement at LT and if we have a chance to get a franchise LT, we should consider it and three, the injury to Neal in the SB, and whether it affects him in 08.

    But I agree, there are a ton of middle round OL prospects that are great fits for the Pats, athletic and versatile linemen who are noted as good for zone blocking schemes. Oneil Cousins, Donald Thomas, Greco, Chad Rinehart, Duane Brown are a few guys who I'm guessing would be good fits for the Pats.
     
  17. mike100915

    mike100915 On the Game Day Roster

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    I have to disagree with you to the fact the the Patriots will trade down. I think if certain people are not there they will want to trade down, but I don't think it's that easy. What team is going to want to move up? and for what player? Maybe if Matt Ryan is there yes, but I don't see a Carolina moving up to get an OT. The Patriots may almost be foreced to take a player at #7. I just want to say a guy around here who get no attention, but I think is an excellent player and someone I would consider at #7 is Keith Rivers.
     
  18. BradyManny

    BradyManny Pro Bowl Player

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    This is a huge simplification, but here's my logic re: a trade down - There are four players that would be trade-up worthy if they were available at #7, Ryan, McFadden, Dorsey, Ellis. There are 3 players we'd take without question if they were available at #7 (and 2 of them most definitely won't), the two Longs and Gholston. So by my math, somebody is going to be there at 7 that we'll either want to take, or will at least garner some level of interest in a trade scenario.
     
    Last edited: Mar 26, 2008
  19. mike100915

    mike100915 On the Game Day Roster

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    The player that will be available will be Sedrick Ellis. I am not sure how many teams would actually be interested in moving up to get him. Maybe the Bengals, maybe the Bears or Panthers move up to get an OT. I really don't see if likely at team wanting to move up. Even if McFadden falls to us, do you see a team really wanting to move up to get him? Dallas has said that they don't want to pay the cost to move up to the top 10. It would cost a whole bunch.
     
  20. jeffbiologist

    jeffbiologist Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

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    First, great job as usual! This is so much more INTERESTING than a mock, and you put the work into it to put yourself out here for criticizm,lol. That said, have a couple problems.....
    So are you saying that there is NO value for the pats to draft at 7 if the Longs are gone? I can see that. But that almost mandates a trade back where alot of other guys come into play. I dont have ANY WRs worthy of tier 3 never mind having Caldwell first. I cant see any of them ranking above Williams. And you have several other CBs missing...Thomas(USC),Jenkins(SFL)etc...some of these HAVE to have value 50-70 dont they?? You do have ILBs too high as someone said before, I would be shocked if we took one before the 3rd rd. You managed to include our Binkies,yours conveniently sandwiched between Barrett and Cromartie(!!??!!). My last question is a guy who I think is rising up some boards and being LB central should be on your radar....Howard out of GA, what do you think of him? Is there a reason why we wouldnt take a shot at him if he dropped....GA players have a pretty decent record in the NFL lately. THanks.
     
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