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New Home Sales Up 3%!!

Discussion in 'Political Discussion' started by PatriotsReign, Oct 28, 2008.

  1. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign On the Roster

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    Yup, the mainstream media is sooo happy to inform us all that new home sales are up 3% in September '08 vs. the prior month. What they DON'T tell us is that that they are DOWN 30% vs. last September!!

    Anyone who knows anything about business would know that you always compare against the same period a year ago. Because when all is said and done, at the end of 2008, home sales will be compared to 2007.

    But to use the +3% September vs August number rather than the -30% September '08 vs. September '07 decline is unacceptable. I guess our MSM really does support our gov't after all.
    Last edited: Oct 28, 2008
  2. maverick4

    maverick4 Banned

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    1984, F451... almost there.
  3. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign On the Roster

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    LOL! Ok mr Mav, enough of talking in code. what the hell does that mean?
  4. MrSparkle

    MrSparkle Rookie

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    Don't get to excited, it's just a bubble :p
  5. PatriotsReign

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    funny sparkie! I guess that's one way of looking at the glass as half full...a 3% bubble vs last month....Hooray!:p
  6. Run DMC

    Run DMC Rookie

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    #24 Jersey

  7. sdaniels7114

    sdaniels7114 Rookie

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    When you have somebody wasting away from Cancer and they're down to like 80 lbs and gain a pound you don't lament the fact that they were 120 lbs a year ago. You take what you can get, even if it is a very modest or even tiny gain.

    Sure, when the market is normal you context month numbers to that same month years ago but when things are this bad I think month to month is appropriate.
  8. Real World

    Real World Moderator Staff Member

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    When you've been in decline for the longest time, a positive month is news worthy. Especially since a lot of talk has been centered around finding a bottom, or wondering when the bottom will be reached. A positive month would obviously be the first step in determining that. I think there is more room to go though, but the bottom is near. The market conditions seem to be setting themselves up for a more rapid recovery, than most are predicting.
    • Like Like x 1
  9. PatriotsReign

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    The bottom will depend on how bad and long the recession is. Home values won't start increasing during a bad recession because there won't be enough buyers to reduce inventory. Of course that can still vary market to market.

    I've said this before but it's worth repeating. The entry level home price sets the entire market. So when enough people can afford that group of homes, we'll have hit bottom. For my area south of Boston, I think a nice, move in ready starter home should bottom out around $270-280K. And that includes new home as well.
  10. Real World

    Real World Moderator Staff Member

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    Don't look now but....


    Low rates, bottoming housing, stronger dollar (an unreal $1.25 versus the Euro & $1.56 against the pound), and the collapse of oil over record highs lead me to believe that the conditions are set for a more rapid recovery than most are predicting. Remember that the stock market can (not saying it will) rebound just as fast as it fell. If next year the bottom line figures come in higher than expected, people could dump their money right back in again. I'm not saying this will happen. I'm just presenting what I see as a plausible scenario. The crucial part is whether or not lessons have been learned here. I personally do not think so, and therefore see any recovery as a similar bubble as 4-5 years ago. If the economy does rebound, rates need to be raised once it does. They won't be though. Not to any level that's necessary IMO. Credit based everything has to be tamed moving forward.
  11. PatriotsReign

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    Keep in mind that the median price is a horrific metric to gauge home prices. All that does is record the median home price of homes that have sold. So there's a lot of cheap foreclosed home prices driving the median down.

    You're scenario of the economy "not getting too bad" is wishful thinking RW. Yes, the dollar is strong but when compared to what? The world's economy is collapsing so it should be strong.

    Dumping money back into the stock market would have zero impact on the economy. As I've said many times, the stock market doesn't drive the economy at all. The ONLY thing that will get the economy going once again is when consumers have money to spend. With huge lay-offs looming in our future and a middle class leveraged to the hilt in debt, it's just going to take time...as in years, not months.

    Even the federal gov't is now admitting we are heading into a lengthy period of contracted growth. Bernanke has said that several times. Regardless, as long as we have jobs, we'll be ok. As a matter of fact, we'll be better off at the end.
    Last edited: Oct 28, 2008
  12. PatriotsReign

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    Just one question....

    What money?:confused:
  13. Real World

    Real World Moderator Staff Member

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    This is why I get annoyed in talking to you about this stuff. You constantly ignore what people like myself type. Where did I say:

    First of all, don't put into quotes something I didn't say, with my name in the same sentence. Second, my point had nothing to do with the "economy not getting that bad". My comments were about there being conditions for a more rapid recovery than some were predicting. You need to work on your reading comprehension. A recovery tends to happen after a downturn in growth. ;)

    As for the stock market, no ******* ****. I think most people know that it's not indicitive of the overall economy. However, it's been the subject of 1,000 posts this month, in this very forum, and on the front pages of the news everyday. Furthermore, the markets strength does play some role in a recovery. Whether that role is part confidence, part investment, or part profits, the DOW growing 20% helps.

    Now to housing. Again, you have a problem comprehending what people are saying, whenever it gives any hint of disagreeing with your doomsday points. My posting the prices article, was in reference to your point against the increase in sales. You said the monthly rise was irrelevent, cuz prices still needed to fall. Well, I posted an article that said prices are falling, and coincidently enough, right around the target you wanted. If you think that price is where housing needs to be, it reaches that point, and sales goes up for the first time in anyone can remember, then.....:p
  14. Real World

    Real World Moderator Staff Member

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    Um, the money that people have been taking out of the market, which has caused to to drop some 6,000 points. You don't think that all of the losses were evaporated cash, do you? People saw a drop, and pulled out. They took losses in doing so, but didn't lose everything. I know people who "took a bath" so to speak, but still have capital waiting for any rebound.

    BTW, people need to ignore housing prices, and stick to housing sales.
  15. MrSparkle

    MrSparkle Rookie

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    Not that I know much but I have been learning and reading.

    What about the dollar being the next bubble. Right now the world is using the dollar as a safe haven while they wait for the CDS to be metered out. I have not even been able to get an idea of how large those payouts will be. Once those have been paid, I see them moving into gold, real gold, not paper gold (comdex) or another currency. I think the dollar is being propped up and gold and silver are being held down to keep people in dollars or wall street. I don't even think you can buy hard gold anywhere near spot price right now.

    I see things like this and wonder what is really going on.

    Forex Goodies - PEI Cycle High

    And this


    I guess on the internet you can find someone saying what you want to hear. In this case, two different Dr Doom's. Trust me, I don't want to hear this but it does make some sense. It feels engineered to me, every step of the way. Maybe it's all the market stress and I'm looking for the boogyman...maybe I found him. You decide.


    BTW, have a nice day :)
  16. PatriotsReign

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    When will you learn Real World....tsk, tsk, tsk:rolleyes:

    I'm referring to the millions of people who have pulled out of their 401k's and other retirement vehicles. I guarantee you they won't be getting "back in" for a long, long time.

    What you & I will do is just wait and watch and see who is right and who is wrong. Hey, what else do we have but time brother?
  17. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign On the Roster

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    Do you REALLY get "annoyed" when talking to me RW? Well isn't that just special buddy? You'll get over it, I know you will!;)

    I have never made doomsday points. What YOU need to keep foremost in that mind of yours is that a forecast of recession is not doomsday and neither is the forecast of a really deep recession. "Doomsday" is the apocolypse and sh1t like that, so get used to it.

    Here's a little tidbit for you. If People who were called "Doomsdayers" forecasts come true, doesn't that make them prophets?:D

    And finally, you did in FACT say you thought there was a chance the economy "might not get that bad", did you not? Quotations don't always denote what someone said or wrote. But RW, saying you thought the environment for a speedy recovery existed is the EXACT same as saying "it might not get too bad"

    Question for you...

    "How far should the federal governemnt go in trying to get out of a recesssion?"

    I'd like your opinion in terms of spending and priority and also the HUGE risk that they screw it up even more like in the Great Depression.
  18. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign On the Roster

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    I'm thinking that after taking a beating, they "may" just want to hold onto what they've got for a while and not risk losing more.

    Prices and sales can't be looked at separately in real estate. Sales will continue to decline if the prices aren't right....econ 101
  19. Real World

    Real World Moderator Staff Member

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    Please point out where I said that. Oh, that's right, I didn't. ;) You should read more slowly, and maybe even twice before you reply.
  20. Real World

    Real World Moderator Staff Member

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    Again, you either need glasses, or have trouble comprehending english.

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