Welcome to PatsFans.com

New England season wins over/under 13.5

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by SoCal Bong, Jul 16, 2008.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. SoCal Bong

    SoCal Bong Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2004
    Messages:
    1,326
    Likes Received:
    7
    Ratings:
    +7 / 0 / -0

    Jeff Haney on New England’s unprecedented over/under line for season wins at one sports book, and why there are worthy arguments for each side

    http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2008/may/14/jeff-haney-new-englands-unprecedented-overunder-li/

    Interesting to see that the Hilton has posted lines on select games:
    • The Patriots are a 9-point favorite on the road against the Jets on Sept. 14.

    • They’re a 3-point favorite at San Diego on Oct. 12.

    • They’re a 14-point favorite against the Broncos on Oct. 20.

    • They’re a 14-point favorite against the Jets on Nov. 13.

    • They’re a 7-point favorite at Seattle on Dec. 7.

    • They’re a 10-point favorite at Oakland on Dec. 14.
     
  2. ctpatsfan77

    ctpatsfan77 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Jan 22, 2005
    Messages:
    21,449
    Likes Received:
    482
    Ratings:
    +1,299 / 18 / -8

    #3 Jersey

    On a related note, that site also lists odds on winning the divisions . . . the Colts are 2:1 favorites to win the AFC South, the Chargers 4:1 favorites in the West . . . and the Pats are 10:1 favorites to win the AFC East. :eek:
     
  3. Dfresh429

    Dfresh429 Practice Squad Player

    Joined:
    Jan 13, 2006
    Messages:
    162
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    I'll take the over.

    The schedule this year...on paper...is brutally easy. I can see 3 games where the patriots will be favored by less than 7. Seattle, Indy and San Diego...

    I gotta believe they will win at least two of those.

    Anything less than 14-2 this year to me is a disappointing regular season.
     
  4. tedylb

    tedylb Third String But Playing on Special Teams

    Joined:
    Jan 25, 2005
    Messages:
    569
    Likes Received:
    3
    Ratings:
    +3 / 0 / -0

    13.5 is an intriguing #. Barring injuries, I'd take the over too. But what really matters is winning the last playoff game.
     
  5. KontradictioN

    KontradictioN Do you even lift? PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2006
    Messages:
    28,147
    Likes Received:
    848
    Ratings:
    +2,721 / 33 / -57

    No Jersey Selected

    We can be 10-6 for all I care just as long as we're hoisting the Lombardi in Tampa Bay.
     
  6. Dfresh429

    Dfresh429 Practice Squad Player

    Joined:
    Jan 13, 2006
    Messages:
    162
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    I completely agree...I am just saying...
     
  7. JoePats

    JoePats In the Starting Line-Up

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2006
    Messages:
    2,145
    Likes Received:
    2
    Ratings:
    +2 / 0 / -0

    That's a really high number, not that I'm surprised it's that high. The Pats can have a good year, go 13-3, and you would lose an over bet. But you can't really go any higher than that. If you bump it a half game to 14, you need them to go 15-1 to win. That's absurd.

    FYI, here are numbers for the entire league:

    Patriots 13.5

    Cowboys 11.5

    Chargers 11

    Colts 11

    Jaguars 10.5

    Packers 9.5

    Steelers 9.5

    Buccaneers 9

    Giants 9

    Saints 9

    Seahawks 9

    Bears 8.5

    Broncos 8.5

    Browns 8.5

    Eagles 8.5

    Panthers 8.5

    Vikings 8.5

    Bengals 8

    Bills 8

    Cardinals 8

    Redskins 8

    Titans 8

    Ravens 7

    Texans 7

    Chiefs 6.5

    Jets 6.5

    Rams 6.5

    49ers 6

    Lions 6

    Raiders 5

    Dolphins 4.5

    Falcons 4

    Off the top of my head, kind of like the Raiders over, Jets over, Chiefs under, Giants over, Steelers over, and I would if forced to pick, take the Pats under
     
  8. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2004
    Messages:
    31,874
    Likes Received:
    278
    Ratings:
    +738 / 17 / -19

    #24 Jersey

    I'd take the under. Easy schedule but a few injuries or close games that go the wrong way, 3 games are easy to lose.
     
  9. signbabybrady

    signbabybrady Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

    Joined:
    Feb 19, 2007
    Messages:
    9,046
    Likes Received:
    149
    Ratings:
    +277 / 1 / -1

    #24 Jersey

    I am not placing a bet with that kind of line. 14 wins is not something I am putting money on in the NFL but at the sametime this team is to good not think they will do it. Just stay away from that bet.
     
  10. Mr.Muhozi

    Mr.Muhozi Practice Squad Player

    Joined:
    Feb 2, 2008
    Messages:
    223
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    i say lucky number 13 :D
     
  11. BWareofDWare

    BWareofDWare Practice Squad Player

    Joined:
    Jun 1, 2007
    Messages:
    186
    Likes Received:
    1
    Ratings:
    +1 / 0 / -0

    I read an article recently on a historical study of these lines and the gist of it was if a teams line was set at more than 8 wins to take the under on them and if it was less than 8 wins to take the over. While parity in the NFL isn't perfect it was enough to sway the "expected" wins from year to year. One thing the article didn't take into consideration was what you have to lay for each over/under. For example, on BoDog right now the Patriots line is set at 12.5. However, you'd have to wager $12 to win $10 on under 12.5 games, but only $11 to win $10 on over 12.5 games. These lines always are geared towards homerism also. You might have enough Colts fans that'd bet $10 each on them winning X number of games, but you probably don't have enough Colts haters willing to be the opposite. Because the majority of the money comes from fans betting "their" team if you add up all the over/under's it will add up to more total games than there are to possibly win this season.
     
  12. SoCal Bong

    SoCal Bong Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2004
    Messages:
    1,326
    Likes Received:
    7
    Ratings:
    +7 / 0 / -0

    There's also a good chance that the Pats will wrap up home field advantage pretty early and will be able to play their bench for at least a game or two without being concerned about the win. Remember the Flutie dropkick and Cassell missed two point conversion game against the Dolphins? That was the difference between winning and losing the over/under that season.
     
  13. Keegs

    Keegs In the Starting Line-Up

    Joined:
    Apr 11, 2006
    Messages:
    4,934
    Likes Received:
    9
    Ratings:
    +11 / 0 / -0

    that is a foolish bet.
     
  14. DynastyDriven

    DynastyDriven On the Game Day Roster

    Joined:
    Sep 1, 2007
    Messages:
    413
    Likes Received:
    1
    Ratings:
    +1 / 0 / -0


    AMEN to that, I'm done with streaks and records I just care about getting the trophy back now.

    I would be tempted to say 14-2 with this schedule if the Patriots didnt have to travel to the west coast a whopping 4 times, so I will say 12-4 and under.
     
  15. Patjew

    Patjew PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Dec 22, 2005
    Messages:
    9,685
    Likes Received:
    129
    Ratings:
    +341 / 2 / -1

    No Jersey Selected

    I guessed 13-3 for this season, so that feels right.
     
  16. rabthepat

    rabthepat 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

    Joined:
    Mar 22, 2006
    Messages:
    1,541
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    Take the under...Superbowl "Loser" jinx.
     
  17. blackglass3

    blackglass3 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Nov 23, 2007
    Messages:
    4,833
    Likes Received:
    44
    Ratings:
    +95 / 0 / -1

    No Jersey Selected

    [​IMG]
     
  18. LuthierJr

    LuthierJr Third String But Playing on Special Teams

    Joined:
    Oct 14, 2007
    Messages:
    721
    Likes Received:
    3
    Ratings:
    +3 / 0 / -0

    13.5 sounds about right. Vegas did good on this prediction. I'd be hard pressed to lay down money either way.
     
  19. chris_in_sunnyvale

    chris_in_sunnyvale In the Starting Line-Up

    Joined:
    Aug 23, 2005
    Messages:
    2,081
    Likes Received:
    8
    Ratings:
    +8 / 0 / -0

    As Pats fans who saw 16, 14 and 14 wins the last several years, the 13.5 number is something reasonable to debate. But step back and take a look at that number:

    13.5

    That's a HUGE number. That's respect in spades.

    Gotta love being a Pats fan during the Brady/BB era.

    Regards,
    Chris
     
  20. WhiskeyBreath

    WhiskeyBreath 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

    Joined:
    Mar 3, 2008
    Messages:
    1,545
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    Under. 13-3
     
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.

Share This Page

unset ($sidebar_block_show); ?>