New England Draft Strategy

[SunnyDenmark]

Some nice food for thought here - thanks guys and gals. Drafting strategy is a great interest for me - and so here are my 2 cents that I haven't seen elsewhere.

Interview with an agent on Draft countdown and the potential impact of a new CBA - got me thinking about offseason programs, mini camps and such.

NFL Agent David Canter Interview, NFL Draft - DraftCountdown.com

While nothing new is being said in the interview that hasn't been said before, the interview once again reinforces the very real possibility that the offseason program could be extremely disrupted if a new CBA is not completed within the early spring.

How does that relate to draft strategy you say? Because if you have all these shiny new toys and you are not allowed to play with them, try them out, etc - the new picks will be harder to incorporate into your team if/ when the 2011 season starts. I use as an illustration the WR 3rd round pick Taylor Price as an example - basically has a red-shirt year as he is raw and was not allowed much time in offseason program due to late graduation of his school. Which put him squarley behind the 8 ball for this season.

Therefore, if it is a fair - good chance of an offseason program being curtailed, I would not target as high, the positions that require alot of time to get up to speed to the NFL level. WR come first to mind also as they have to get the reps in with the QB and especially if they don't come from a school running a pro style offense. Maybe also smaller DE's as a OLB conversion. Conversely, the position of RB seems to be easier to adjust to the pro game for the top tier backs.

Now the positions themselves are where my lack of understanding of the game hinders any followup - I leave it to this board for your comments. But I think it is a worthy consideration for a smart draft strategy approach......and I do know one HC which seems to be quite intelligent in this area.

Don't know how much time TB has left or more contritely how many more hits his body can handle for an NFL career - (don't want another Favre 'dead man walking' situation). But I would think NEP would want some (and have the picks for) 2-3 starting to elite calibre players with the first 3 picks in most likely the top 33 picks off the board. Forget the picks that take a year or 2 to develop with huge potential - as next year might be a red-shirt year for them due to little / no offseason program. Lets target the players and or positions that are most likely to give immediate results (5 tech DE / RB / true OLB (not a DE conversion) / ???).

Looking forward to any / all comments even if it is to say that I am full of it. It won't be anything that I haven't heard from my wife already.

Greetings from Denmark - land of Hans Christian Andersen.

 

[Off The Grid]

Seems to me that BB simply rates the players using his own version of the oft-cited NFP scale and specifically vis-a-vis the Pats - as opposed to some "intrinsic talent". So, he might come up with a few guys at various positions that he rates in the 7.0-7.5 range (for the Pats specifically) and a cubic buttload more in the 6.7-7.0 range, etc.

Then, he formulates his best guess as to how the other teams in the market might value these guys in terms of how early in the queue they're likely to get picked.

So, maybe he rates Bryant and McCourty equally, but guesses that the market will have McCourty rated much lower - even lower than the #22 pick. He also notes that there are a couple guys he rates in the high-6s/low 7s that he sees the market likely to undervalue. He can either take Bryant with the #22 or trade down for more opportunities to pick up a high-6/low-7 guy later. As long as he feels he can stay ahead of the other specific players who might have McCourty rated higher than most, he's good. So, he lets Bryant go, figuring that he can still get McCourty plus some extra value

OTOH, if there's a guy - perhaps a 3-4DE named Richard Seymour - who he has rated as an 8.0 (or nearly so), maybe he hangs on to the Raiders' pick at #15 (say) until the last possible minute, just before Seymour falls in range of a team that also likely has him rated high and has a need. Then, he executes a trade to move up to #13 to snag him.


Stating the obvious.

Obviously.

Ahhh...A deliciously crisp encapsulation.

 

[jsull87]

Pats did not miss on Brace...

Not saying they did... was using him as an example of people saying we missed on him. but it wouldn't matter as much as if we only had one pick in the 2nd because we had 3 other picks to mitigate any failure. I am not commenting on the picks themselves. Just the strategy of giving yourself the best shot to hit. e.g last year people were saying butler and vollmer were the hits and chung and brace were the misses. This year people are saying chung and vollmer were the hits and brace is contributing but butler is a bust. Point is there were 4 bites at the apple Instead of one. (now we did trade out of the 1st so technically 4 bites instead of 2 but you get the point)

 

[mgteich]

Vollmer a 5th or 6th rounder? See below from Gosselin. The only reason that he was projected beyond the second by some is that he wasn't at the combine.
==============================

76. Sebastian Vollmer, OT, Houston
Every year the NFL invites the top college draft prospects, usually about 330 of them, to Indianapolis to attend its annual scouting combine. All 32 teams attend and each brings an entourage of talent evaluators, coaches, scouts, trainers and doctors. The prospects are poked and prodded to ensure they are mentally and physically ready to play in the NFL. Only about 265 of them get drafted – but not all the draftees draw invitations to the combine. Pro Bowl pass rusher Osi Umenyiora of the New York Giants was not invited to the combine his draft year. Neither was 2007 NFL receiving champion Wes Welker. Umenyiora became the highest drafted non-combine player this decade when the Giants took him with the 56th overall pick in the second round. The highest rated non-combine player in this draft is Houston OT Sebastian Vollmer.
===================

.Vollmer is the perfect example. In college he excelled in a zone blocking scheme like ours. So while the draftniks rate Vollmer as a 5th or 6th rounder, BB rates him much higher. Why, because there is less projection needed to evaluate Vollmer in our system.

 

[jsull87]

It will be interesting to see how they use the ammo this year vs. last. I've said this elsewhere (and will doubtless say it a lot more by April! ) but the draft and the roster both look dramatically different for 2011. The Pats should be loaded with young depth at pretty much every position except the interior OL. Role players are all present and accounted for, so going all out for a couple of difference-makers in round 1 could make sense.

This is where i differ slightly from some people here. i understand the trade up to get your guy e.g revis/seymoure/ware is there for the taking. Specially in this draft. (but once again the point with the jets vs pats strategy is what if that d ware turns out to be V Gholston, i just don't think there is any certainty in the draft you just do the best research you can)

But in my opinion there were people yelling the trade up last year. But with the trade down we created value in other spots... TE, Kicker, 2010 2nd rounder

But still got an impact player in McCourty. Now personally i heave heard that the pats have holes at LT,G,C,WR,RB,DE and OLB in this next draft.

Thats 7 spots people believe we can upgrade. So i don't prescribe to the 10 picks aren't needed/can't be used.

I also don't whole heartily shut my brain off to the notion of the trade up. But my personal preference is the value created by the trade down or trade out (of that year) has kept this team locked and loaded with draft ammo over the past 3 seasons.

It's my favorite every year when 1 of our 3rds gets traded into the following year for a 2nd (half because we never seem to get that Mike Wallace steal) but half because i am hoping what happens this year happens and the team pulls a Tennessee/Carolina and stinks it up for just that year.

 

[patchick]

But my personal preference is the value created by the trade down or trade out (of that year) has kept this team locked and loaded with draft ammo over the past 3 seasons.

A big part of my trade-up leaning has to do with the nature of this draft -- I just don't expect it to be deep enough to get good value trading down.

But trading OUT, a la 2007, is another story. I've mentally put aside one of this years 2nds or 3rds for 2012 picks, and a Dillon-like trade for a vet RB could make sense too.

 

[Taxed in Maine]

As far as trading up. Not a big fan, unless it is just a minor move with a late round pick.

That being said, do they even have any late round picks left? They have their 4th, 5th, 6th & 7th picks. There are also undisclosed picks designated for OL Q. Ojinnaka and SS J. Page for '11, and an undisclosed pick for LB T. White in '12.

I would assume that both the 6th & 7th picks are gone???

That leaves 8 picks thru five rounds.

DE, OT, OLB, CB, 2-RB, OC, and FS

I could see all 8 making the squad next fall.

 

[DaBruinz]

Vollmer is the perfect example. In college he excelled in a zone blocking scheme like ours. So while the draftniks rate Vollmer as a 5th or 6th rounder, BB rates him much higher. Why, because there is less projection needed to evaluate Vollmer in our system.

Not sure where you saw that Vollmer was rated a 5th or 6th rounder. NFLDraftScout.com had him rated as a 3rd-4th.. with a high of a late 2nd and a low of a late 4th.

 

[DaBruinz]

As far as trading up. Not a big fan, unless it is just a minor move with a late round pick.

That being said, do they even have any late round picks left? They have their 4th, 5th, 6th & 7th picks. There are also undisclosed picks designated for OL Q. Ojinnaka and SS J. Page for '11, and an undisclosed pick for LB T. White in '12.

I would assume that both the 6th & 7th picks are gone???

That leaves 8 picks thru five rounds.

DE, OT, OLB, CB, 2-RB, OC, and FS

I could see all 8 making the squad next fall.

Don't make any assumptions about the Ojinnaka trade. For all we know, there was a clause in there that said if the Pats cut him, no pick is transferred.

Page is a different story. But, my guess is that the pick will be determined by whether or not the Pats can re-sign him. If they can't then they probably don't owe anything.

As for positions for next year's draft, I don't see WR being on the list. Safety will depend on whether or not Page is retained. And I also don't see CB being on the list.

 

[Taxed in Maine]

Don't make any assumptions about the Ojinnaka trade. For all we know, there was a clause in there that said if the Pats cut him, no pick is transferred.

Page is a different story. But, my guess is that the pick will be determined by whether or not the Pats can re-sign him. If they can't then they probably don't owe anything.

As for positions for next year's draft, I don't see WR being on the list. Safety will depend on whether or not Page is retained. And I also don't see CB being on the list.

Another WR?? Exactly how many do they need? The offense has gotten better since Moss has been gone. Another couple good games and they could get to the #2 spot ALL-TIME in scoring per game and you want another WR. Tate is essentially in his rookie year, and they haven't even put Price on the field yet.

Inversely, they have McCourty and Bodden should return. Then....Wilhite barely sees the field, Butler rarely sees the field, Wheatley has been released, and UDFA Arrington is the starter!
But they don't need another corner? Are you telling me right now that you want to start the '11 season with Bodden-Mccourty-Arrington-Wilhite-Butler??

Either thru the draft or FA, they need another corner.

At Safety they have one FS, the rest are all SS types. IMO they need another ballhawk-cover FS to compliment BM.

 

[jsull87]

As far as trading up. Not a big fan, unless it is just a minor move with a late round pick.

That being said, do they even have any late round picks left? They have their 4th, 5th, 6th & 7th picks. There are also undisclosed picks designated for OL Q. Ojinnaka and SS J. Page for '11, and an undisclosed pick for LB T. White in '12.

I would assume that both the 6th & 7th picks are gone???

That leaves 8 picks thru five rounds.

DE, OT, OLB, CB, 2-RB, OC, and FS

I could see all 8 making the squad next fall.

yeah but i think we have New Orleans 6th or something like that too

 

[SirApropos]

Either thru the draft or FA, they need another corner.

At Safety they have one FS, the rest are all SS types. IMO they need another ballhawk-cover FS to replace BM.

Agreed they need another CB for the mix. Sanders is technically a FS but I do think they will get a FS this draft as well because they will likely trade BM or choose to not resign him after 2011.

 

[DaBruinz]

Another WR?? Exactly how many do they need? The offense has gotten better since Moss has been gone. Another couple good games and they could get to the #2 spot ALL-TIME in scoring per game and you want another WR. Tate is essentially in his rookie year, and they haven't even put Price on the field yet.

I said that I DON'T see WR as a need.

Inversely, they have McCourty and Bodden should return. Then....Wilhite barely sees the field, Butler rarely sees the field, Wheatley has been released, and UDFA Arrington is the starter!
But they don't need another corner? Are you telling me right now that you want to start the '11 season with Bodden-Mccourty-Arrington-Wilhite-Butler??

Either thru the draft or FA, they need another corner.

Over-react much? I would be fine with that group of 5 being the CBs going into next year. Wilhite and Butler have seen the field a helluva lot more than you give them credit for. Though Butler regressed at the beginning of the year, he's taken steps forward since then to get on track. Wilhite has been injured of late, but he's been pretty good as the 3rd corner. So, no, I don't see a CB in the draft as being a priority. BTW, Arrington's status as a UDFA should have absolutely no bearing on whether or not another CB is needed. Arrington is starting because Bodden went on IR to start the season and he outplayed Butler. Why do you try and make that sound like a bad thing?

At Safety they have one FS, the rest are all SS types. IMO they need another ballhawk-cover FS to compliment BM.

You don't seem to understand. The Pats don't play FS/SS, They have 2 safeties on the field in their base defense and they expect both to be able to help in run support as well as cover. If the Pats retain Page, that would give them 5 Safeties in Chung, Page, Meriweather, Sanders, and Brown. Even at 4 safeties, I find it hard to believe that safety will be a priority in the draft.

 

[DaBruinz]

BTW - Miguel has an excellent breakdown of the draft picks on his free agency page:

Miguel's UNOFFICIAL 2010 Patriots Free Agency Page

It has been reported that the Patriots traded their 2011 7th round pick to the Falcons for Quinn Ojinnaka; a 2011 conditional draft pick to the Chiefs for Jarrod Page; and a 2012 conditional draft pick to the Eagles for Tracy White.
1 - Patriots - assigned selection
1 - Raiders - Acquired as part of the Richard Seymour trade
2 - Patriots - assigned selection
2 - Panthers - Acquired as part of an April 23, 2010 draft-day trade
3 - Patriots - assigned selection
3 - Vikings - Acquired as part of Randy Moss trade
4 - Patriots - assigned selection
4 - Broncos - Acquired as part of the Laurence Maroney trade (The higher of the two 4th round picks will be traded to the Seahawks as part of the Deion Branch trade.
5 - Patriots - assigned selection
6 - Patriots - assigned selection - Traded to the Broncos as part of the Laurence Maroney trade.
6 - Saints - Acquired in the David Thomas trade
7 - Patriots - assigned selection - Traded to the Vikings as part of the Randy Moss trade.

The Pats have already traded away their 6th and 7th round picks in the Maroney and Moss trades. And the 4th round pick from the Broncos looks to be going to the Seahawks to complete the Deion Branch trade.

So, the question will remain is what did the Pats trade for Ojinnaka and Page. My guess is still that Ojinnaka will end up not having a pick and that Page will be a 2012 pick based on whether the Pats can retain him.

 

[cstjohn17]

Start with the obvious, anyone who thinks they can predict the Patriots strategy is fooling themselves. As far as I can tell they understand that draft picks are 50/50 at best so they try to get a lot of them to minimize the risk. Also in the past several years they have trusted their board, the team was in transition and they had to rapidly add youth across the roster. They seemed to have liked the picks in the range of 25 -60 to fill things out.

Next year they start to move beyond the transition and have generally ok depth at most positions. After listening to Jaws on WEEI today he views the pass rush as a huge liability (no surprise). Just when we think we have the Patriots figured out they will surprise us again.

Remember these universal truths?

1. The Patriots will never draft an ILB in round 1?
2. The Patriots will never draft a OG in round 1?
3. The Patrriots will never draft a RB in round 1? (I wish they listened to us on that one..)
4. The Patriots this, the Patriots that...

Here is a link to one of the classic articles of all time,
Friends Don't Let Friends Watch The Draft

 

[SirApropos]

BTW - Miguel has an excellent breakdown of the draft picks on his free agency page:

Miguel's UNOFFICIAL 2010 Patriots Free Agency Page

The Pats have already traded away their 6th and 7th round picks in the Maroney and Moss trades. And the 4th round pick from the Broncos looks to be going to the Seahawks to complete the Deion Branch trade.

So, the question will remain is what did the Pats trade for Ojinnaka and Page. My guess is still that Ojinnaka will end up not having a pick and that Page will be a 2012 pick based on whether the Pats can retain him.

The Moss trade was for a 2012 7th rounder. There are multiple sites including Mike Reiss that have said the Ojinnaka trade was for an unconditional 7th round 2011 pick. The Page pick is for a conditional 2011 pick originally I thought is was for a 5th but since he's been hurt most of the year it will probably be a 6th (NO).

So in the end NE's picks should look like this.

1 (OAK)
1
2(CAR)
2
3(MIN)
3
4
5
5(Comp - Ben Watson)

 

[patchick]

The Pats don't play FS/SS, They have 2 safeties on the field in their base defense and they expect both to be able to help in run support as well as cover.

I've had the impression that the safety roles have been evolving...that the FS/SS divide has grown in the Pats' defense. I'd be curious for your or others' observations of how they use the safeties today vs. in the Harrison/Wilson days vs. Milloy/Jones, etc.

If the Pats retain Page, that would give them 5 Safeties in Chung, Page, Meriweather, Sanders, and Brown. Even at 4 safeties, I find it hard to believe that safety will be a priority in the draft.

To me safety is one of the many positions where they have plenty of competent depth, but a real standout could make a big difference. Plus the starter spot opposite Chung in 2012 is empty -- Page is only signed through 2010, Meriweather and Sanders through 2011. I believe that DE is the only other spot on the defense where current starters are unsigned for 2012.

 

[Taxed in Maine]

I said that I DON'T see WR as a need.

My fault, reading comprehension problem!



Over-react much? I would be fine with that group of 5 being the CBs going into next year. Wilhite and Butler have seen the field a helluva lot more than you give them credit for. Though Butler regressed at the beginning of the year, he's taken steps forward since then to get on track. Wilhite has been injured of late, but he's been pretty good as the 3rd corner. So, no, I don't see a CB in the draft as being a priority. BTW, Arrington's status as a UDFA should have absolutely no bearing on whether or not another CB is needed. Arrington is starting because Bodden went on IR to start the season and he outplayed Butler. Why do you try and make that sound like a bad thing?

I didn't mean it as a bad thing. Just pointing out the fact that a young udfa beats out 2 second round picks and a fourth rd pick for the starting job. One of the reasons I think KA is the starter is bc he is much better at run support and a more solid tackler than the other two. But, we will agree to disagree. I would like to see a 2nd Day CB brought in to compete with Arrington, Wilhite, & Butler.

You don't seem to understand. The Pats don't play FS/SS, They have 2 safeties on the field in their base defense and they expect both to be able to help in run support as well as cover. If the Pats retain Page, that would give them 5 Safeties in Chung, Page, Meriweather, Sanders, and Brown. Even at 4 safeties, I find it hard to believe that safety will be a priority in the draft.

I do understand. But I see BM with a lot of over-the-top help responibilities, and Chung/Sanders with more run-support, TE coverage resposibilities. They need another "cover" safety that can tackle also. I am also talking maybe a 4th or 5th rounder, not real high.

I'm not going to argue about the 6th & 7th round pick. Nobody really knows at this point, but IMO they are gone in trades. I could be wrong.

 

[Off The Grid]

They need another "cover" safety that can tackle also. I am also talking maybe a 4th or 5th rounder, not real high.

It's all about Mark ~ "Simon" ~ LeGree, baby.

Needs work on technique, but LOVES to hit...and is a FootBall VORTEX.

 

[zimmy]

I think we need to go back to dominating the line of scrimmage. I would love to see a Seymour type DE, an outside linebacker and some youth on the offensive line (if we re-sign Mankins, then perhaps a stud centre to replace koppen eventually) amongst our first 4 picks. Then I would add another defensive back and a running back with the remaining 2nd and the 3rd.

Depending on how Tate works out we could do with finding a legitimate deep threat too.

Now hopefully we can solve some of these issues in free agency which will allow us to go BPA in the draft, but my overall philosophy would be to address the lines; Protect Brady, and defensively got some more pressure.