Needs Analysis: Linebacker

[Terry Glenn is a cowgirl]

The Pats NEED to address lb (both inside and outside) in next years draft.

Bruschi is done. I'm a big fan of his, but, reality must see this as a need.

Seau? Uhmmmm... not the answer. Maybe a decent backup. But...

Not much of a pass rush either.

Cb and safety also need to be addressed.

It was looking pretty bad at times.

Come on.

Where is the next Ed Reed and Jerrod Mayo at?

 

[mgteich]

I think some of this discussion on the need to get younger and better at linebacker just means it's draft time. We have had this discussion for many years, regardless of how well Pioli meets the needs at LB. We hope we have signed the linebackers of the future. We just brought in Mayo, Guyton, Crable, Redd, Ruud and Robertson. Perhaps we should draft five more and cut all of these except for Mayo and Guyton who proved themselves in their rookie years. I suspect that some of these players are indeed part of the future.

Having re-read all of the threads on linebackers, I do agree that we should draft an ILB. There should be a solid 3-4 ILB prospect available in the first 100 picks where we have at least four picks.

OUTSIDE LINEBACKER (5)
Thomas, Vrabel, Crable, Redd, Woods (Colvin) PS - Robertson
a) I do not think that we should use a top 100 draft pick for this position.
b) I expect that we will offer a tender of $2.2M for Woods although $1.5M could
certainly happen. Woods is capable to be the first off the bench now, while
the others are developing. Woods is also a top Ster, needed as Redd and
Guyton develop their ST skills.

INSIDE LINEBACKER (4)
Mayo, Guyton, Bruschi/Seau, draftee
I think it time that Izzo and Alexander go, but I would not be surprised to see one stay.
The value should be there in the second round. Also, the team may have decided that, with another off-season, Guyton is ready to start. If so, the need is for a 2010 backup, who could still be drafted this year.

AN ALTERNATIVE
We could draft a DE linebacker prospect, with the idea of moving Thomas or Vrabel inside as needed, this year or next. Personally, I don't like this method of finding 3-4 OLB linebackers. Even if we find the talent, as we one did in one the best sackers ever, the player could still end up as an ILB (Bruschi). Personally, I think this is an expensive and inefficient way to find a 3-4 OLB.

BOTTOM LINE
The open question is which of DL's and OG's will be extended before the draft. If none are, then it will be difficult not to consider these positions as two of the three most important priorities, along with defensive backs (especially safeties). And this ignores the fact that both are TE's will be in their contract years.

So, in isolation, as with almost all positions, it is easy to see why we need to upgrade our linebackers. In the end, as of now, there are much more important priorities.

In the end, we disagree. That is why we are here. We will disagree up until the picks are made, and even on the second guessing afterward.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

We hope we have signed the linebackers of the future. We just brought in Mayo, Guyton, Crable, Redd, Ruud and Robertson.

Poor Craig, left out in the cold.

Having re-read all of the threads on linebackers, I do agree that we should draft an ILB. There should be a solid 3-4 ILB prospect available in the first 100 picks where we have at least four picks.

That would be nice, but there looks to be some Day Two kids who may not have the wheels, but can play downhill very well - Guyton's Nickel role this season suggests his performance gives BB that draft flexibility. Either way, I'd like to see at least two ILB's brought in through the draft - one as a UDFA would be okay.

OUTSIDE LINEBACKER (5)
Thomas, Vrabel, Crable, Redd, Woods (Colvin) PS - Robertson Craig
a) I do not think that we should use a top 100 draft pick for this position.
b) I expect that we will offer a tender of $2.2M for Woods although $1.5M could certainly happen. Woods is capable to be the first off the bench now, while the others are developing. Woods is also a top Ster, needed as Redd and Guyton develop their ST skills.

I'm leaning toward seeing Woods signed to a new contract the way Yates was, but that may depend on how his jaw is healing and if he might have concussion concerns down the road. As for drafting a Top 100 OLB project, I'm okay with it "if" the player can contribute his rookie season:
- Wake Forest's Aaron Curry is unlikely to be there, but if he was, I'd like him as a kid who can play inside or out.
- Virginia's Clint Sintim can at least come in and take some reps, though I would be interested to see how he did as SILB.
- I love Cincinnati's Connor Barwin, he could take 3rd TE reps, he's reportedly an excellent STer, and I think he'd be a quick study at OLB (I've seen him peel off and cover RBs in the flat and play up on his feet along the line to move his pass rush threat around). I see a lot of Vrable in this kid.

If the Pats took an OLB project on in the early rounds, you could look at moving one of the kids already on roster inside, Craig needs to get stronger and better with his hands, but I've seen him play up on his feet and wouldn't be surprised if he could pick it up for SILB.

INSIDE LINEBACKER (4)
Mayo, Guyton, Bruschi/Seau, draftee
I think it time that Izzo and Alexander go, but I would not be surprised to see one stay.

I don't see Izzo going anywhere yet, the Pats may decline to tender Alexander and let him see what's out there. Miguel suggests minimum RFA tender is $1 million, and Alexander is a UDFA, if he doesn't get a new contract he's on the market.

Unless Woods can step up at OLB and play regularly on 1st and 2nd down, I don't expect BB to move Thomas back inside. I wouldn't move Vrabel inside, once his shoulder is healed up he should be good for another season outside where he won't get beat on as much.

 

[BritPat]

I see what some of you guys are saying about the number of bodies, but production should always be the primary deciding factor for a position, and I'm not happy with it from our OLB's this year, as I've said before.

I really really wouldn't be surprised to see another OLB in the draft.

 

[BradyManny]

I think its very likely that the Pats put a 2nd round tender on Woods. That would be 1.545 million. I don't think that the Pats offer him more than a 1 year deal, basically doing the same with him that they did with TBC.

Woods has been stellar on special teams since he came to the Pats. This year, he finally started seeing snaps in rotation, but also on the nickel. He was solid, but not spectacular. That being said, he showed improvement, imho, in each game until he got injured. What is puzzling is that the Pass Rush was supposedly his strong point according to both BB and Pees, yet, I didn't see him being turned loose on the pass rush the way Vrabel or Thomas were.

Yeah, I agree - I found that odd myself. I tried to watch him closely when possible, and any notions that he is a pass rushing specialist or he has better pass rushing production than a banged up Vrabel proved not to be the case. But he was surprisingly solid against the run and looked pretty good in coverage. I agree with your assessment, 2nd round tender sounds about right - signing him to longer doesn't make sense (for the Pats) yet when we have all that talent developing in the pipeline, particularly Crable, and we have to see how that pans out.

 

[BradyManny]

I see what some of you guys are saying about the number of bodies, but production should always be the primary deciding factor for a position, and I'm not happy with it from our OLB's this year, as I've said before.

I really really wouldn't be surprised to see another OLB in the draft.

A healthy Vrabel might be the difference, though.

Adalius pass rushing in 08 was good, don't see any reason to upgrade over him. If Vrabel is healthy next year, then their probably isn't much room to upgrade his pass rushing either. And if he's not, and if he has lost a step, then they can go with a 3-3 nickel and keep Vrabel off the field on passing downs anyway.

The only way I can see OLB/ILB being dramatically altered or potentially upgraded is if they moved Adalius back to SILB primarily, and signed someone like Suggs. But I almost like Adalius outside too much to do that, as his pass rushing on the edge is good. But he could certainly rush from the inside, and that might create some havoc for blockers, too, or Adalius can move outside on the nickel downs.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

I see what some of you guys are saying about the number of bodies, but production should always be the primary deciding factor for a position, and I'm not happy with it from our OLB's this year, as I've said before.

I really really wouldn't be surprised to see another OLB in the draft.

I won't be surprised, but younger players in complex jobs have a learning curve to negotiate before their production matches their potential.

- Crable showed promise, which may be why he was drafted in the 3rd round.
- Robertson was projected to the 2nd round before he injured himself.
- Redd needs to learn techniques suited to a guy his size - think Willie McGinest - in order to develop his pass rush.
- Craig was a decent pass rusher in college, like all but Redd he needs to build strength.

Additionally, Guyton was creating presssure with an inside blitz. If he continues to grow as a coverage LB and improve his blitz skills, he will help the DL collapse the pocket - and as Guyton improves, Pees & Co. can do more with Mayo who had some pass rushing skill when he played OLB.

Factor in a healthy Vrabel, healthy Jarvis Greene, healthy Adalius, healthy Ty Warren, more experienced Meriweather and young CBs finding their groove...

A wild card is Bo Ruud. I suspect he was brought in as someone who could grow into a coverage role while playing STs. He has the frame to add muscle and become part of the mix at OLB too.

 

[BradyManny]

I won't be surprised, but younger players in complex jobs have a learning curve to negotiate before their production matches their potential.

- Crable showed promise, which may be why he was drafted in the 3rd round.
- Robertson was projected to the 2nd round before he injured himself.
- Redd needs to learn techniques suited to a guy his size - think Willie McGinest - in order to develop his pass rush.
- Craig was a decent pass rusher in college, like all but Redd he needs to build strength.

I was reading some the 08 draft magazines on Robertson, in one he was a 2nd round projection, in another, a 4th. FFtoolbox had him as a 3rd, si.com as a 5th. SI.com has this little highlight reel of him: SI.com - 2008 NFL Draft - Darrell Robertson

Doesn't show much, but you definitely get a sense of his athleticism, and he's a pretty intriguing prospect to me.

Between Crable, Redd, Robertson, Craig and the potential of bringing back Woods, or even the potential of re-signing Colvin as a stopgap, I'm lowering OLB as a need even further.

ILB on the other hand, as I looked further into the roster - I again was reminded there really is no backup at WILB to Mayo on the squad. Either Bruschi or Seau could fill that role, but I don't even know if either of those guys will be on the squad next year. And of course, if Bruschi were to move to WILB, then you'd be asking Guyton to be a 3 down SILB.

I'd love to get Spikes in the first round. He looks a lot like Mayo and looks like he can do it all, and his pass rushing is surprisingly good, too. I'll be watching him closely on the 8th. Retain Bruschi, and he's a vet backup behind Mayo. Guyton becomes a backup at multiple positions (SILB, OLB), or a guy they bring in for the nickel packages alongside Mayo, Spikes & Thomas when they want an awful lot of speed in their nickel, while staying big.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

I was reading some the 08 draft magazines on Robertson, in one he was a 2nd round projection, in another, a 4th. FFtoolbox had him as a 3rd, si.com as a 5th. SI.com has this little highlight reel of him: SI.com - 2008 NFL Draft - Darrell Robertson

Doesn't show much, but you definitely get a sense of his athleticism, and he's a pretty intriguing prospect to me.

Between Crable, Redd, Robertson, Craig and the potential of bringing back Woods, or even the potential of re-signing Colvin as a stopgap, I'm lowering OLB as a need even further.

ILB on the other hand, as I looked further into the roster - I again was reminded there really is no backup at WILB to Mayo on the squad. Either Bruschi or Seau could fill that role, but I don't even know if either of those guys will be on the squad next year. And of course, if Bruschi were to move to WILB, then you'd be asking Guyton to be a 3 down SILB.

I'd love to get Spikes in the first round. He looks a lot like Mayo and looks like he can do it all, and his pass rushing is surprisingly good, too. I'll be watching him closely on the 8th. Retain Bruschi, and he's a vet backup behind Mayo. Guyton becomes a backup at multiple positions (SILB, OLB), or a guy they bring in for the nickel packages alongside Mayo, Spikes & Thomas when they want an awful lot of speed in their nickel, while staying big.

I consider Guyton a more natural fit for WILB, but he backed up both this season. I'm looking for someone a little more downhill (though Guyton hasn't looked too bad playing downhill) for the SILB slot. Curry, Spikes (if he declares), Sintim, and Norwood (if he declares) are all LBs carrying 1st or 2nd round projections (one site has Norwood in the 3rd which I think is a steal) whom I'd love to see added to the ILB pool. Sintim and Norwood would be guys whom I think would be best suited for SILB, but any of the four would be a fine addition to the talent pool at LB and would also backstop OLB. If BB doesn't add another young LB, he may test one of the other young LBs inside (Craig needs to get a lot stronger and improve his stack and shed ability, but he's the one whom I think might be able to make that move). BB may also move Mayo to SILB and use Guyton at WILB. We've got 2 months to the Combine, with the All-Star games in between, there will be more data to crunch.

 

[VJCPatriot]

A healthy Vrabel might be the difference, though.

Adalius pass rushing in 08 was good, don't see any reason to upgrade over him. If Vrabel is healthy next year, then their probably isn't much room to upgrade his pass rushing either. And if he's not, and if he has lost a step, then they can go with a 3-3 nickel and keep Vrabel off the field on passing downs anyway.

The only way I can see OLB/ILB being dramatically altered or potentially upgraded is if they moved Adalius back to SILB primarily, and signed someone like Suggs. But I almost like Adalius outside too much to do that, as his pass rushing on the edge is good. But he could certainly rush from the inside, and that might create some havoc for blockers, too, or Adalius can move outside on the nickel downs.

1. How does a 3-3 nickel improve the pass rush ability of this team if Vrabel continues to be in decline? It doesn't.

2. What players are you plugging into that 3-3 nickel?

 

[BradyManny]

1. How does a 3-3 nickel improve the pass rush ability of this team if Vrabel continues to be in decline? It doesn't.

2. What players are you plugging into that 3-3 nickel?

I'm hoping Vrabel's shoulder was the reason behind his production drop-off, for starters.

But, if not, then in a 3-3 nickel, I'd have the 3 LBs be Adalius, Mayo and Guyton. Adalius would rush most of the time, but you could drop him and have more in coverage or drop him and rush Mayo or Guyton.

But if Vrabel is pass rushing more effectively next year, then you have more versatility and deception in your defense by going with a 2-4 and having him and Adalius both on the outside, and Mayo and Guyton inside. Or, as I said, if I had Spikes, he'd be alongisde Mayo in that group.

 

[VJCPatriot]

I'm hoping Vrabel's shoulder was the reason behind his production drop-off, for starters.

But, if not, then in a 3-3 nickel, I'd have the 3 LBs be Adalius, Mayo and Guyton. Adalius would rush most of the time, but you could drop him and have more in coverage or drop him and rush Mayo or Guyton.

But if Vrabel is pass rushing more effectively next year, then you have more versatility and deception in your defense by going with a 2-4 and having him and Adalius both on the outside, and Mayo and Guyton inside. Or, as I said, if I had Spikes, he'd be alongisde Mayo in that group.

That might make for a decent coverage unit... particularly if Mayo and Guyton can make strides in that area but the only real passrusher there is AD and we're already giving up a linebacker slot, giving us LESS ways to attack the QB. I prefer a pro active attacking defense. You can cover as nice as you want but if you give the QB all day, coverage WILL break down. That's why a pass rushing OLB that can pressure the QB and make him get rid of it early is still a priority imo.

 

[BradyManny]

That might make for a decent coverage unit... particularly if Mayo and Guyton can make strides in that area but the only real passrusher there is AD and we're already giving up a linebacker slot, giving us LESS ways to attack the QB. I prefer a pro active attacking defense. You can cover as nice as you want but if you give the QB all day, coverage WILL break down. That's why a pass rushing OLB that can pressure the QB and make him get rid of it early is still a priority imo.

What do you think of a 3-3 then, staying big up front with Sey, Wright and Green for instance. Wright did well applying pressure this season, Green had an off year, but maybe it was due to lingering health issues that led to him being a PUP to start the year. Seymour had a great year rushing the passer.

Add in Adalius as the fourth rusher, who also was looking nice rushing the passer. And again, as I said, you can still drop Adalius and rush Mayo or Guyton when you want to mix it up and throw some deception in there.

I offer this suggestion only b/c I don't see many ways to upgrade the pass rushing on the edge. The draft doesn't provide any sure bets, Crable is an unknown. Signing a FA like Suggs, maybe, but it remains to be seen how active we'll be in free agency this offseason.

 

[dryheat44]

One LB I really like is the Polish kid out of Baylor. Pawelek, or something like that. He's got nice size to play inside at the Mike, and I think in time he could be a really good coverage linebacker.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

One LB I really like is the Polish kid out of Baylor. Pawelek, or something like that. He's got nice size to play inside at the Mike, and I think in time he could be a really good coverage linebacker.

He caught my eye when they played Connecticut.

 

[patchick]

A couple of stray thoughts...

First, there's a conversation that I keep seeing here a lot, it usually goes something like this:

A: OLB isn't a round-1 need.
B: Are you saying a DeMarcus Ware type wouldn't be a huge upgrade to this defense? Because that's where you get that kind of player.

So here's a question: how many "DeMarcus Ware types" do we think exist? I'm thinking DeMarcus Ware isn't a "type," he's the single best player at his position in the league, on track for the Hall of Fame. Or to put it another way, last year's draft featured three "DeMarcus Ware types" taken in the first 32 picks. They combined to register 4.5 sacks on the season.


Second stray thought...

Pierre Woods
Gary Guyton
Eric Alexander
Vince Redd

Is anybody else struck by what a large number of UDFA linebackers that is? It's especially weird given that guys like Woods and Guyton were incredible physical specimens who had reasonably productive careers at major college programs.

 

[cstjohn17]

A couple of stray thoughts...

First, there's a conversation that I keep seeing here a lot, it usually goes something like this:

A: OLB isn't a round-1 need.
B: Are you saying a DeMarcus Ware type wouldn't be a huge upgrade to this defense? Because that's where you get that kind of player.

So here's a question: how many "DeMarcus Ware types" do we think exist? I'm thinking DeMarcus Ware isn't a "type," he's the single best player at his position in the league, on track for the Hall of Fame. Or to put it another way, last year's draft featured three "DeMarcus Ware types" taken in the first 32 picks. They combined to register 4.5 sacks on the season.


Second stray thought...

Pierre Woods
Gary Guyton
Eric Alexander
Vince Redd

Is anybody else struck by what a large number of UDFA linebackers that is? It's especially weird given that guys like Woods and Guyton were incredible physical specimens who had reasonably productive careers at major college programs.

Kind of interesting, Guyton really surprised me when he dropped. Lets hope they can pull themselves out of the JAG soup they swim in.

 

[patchick]

A little followup on "DeMarcus Ware types":

Since 2005 when Ware & Merriman were drafted, by my count nine 3-4 OLB types have been drafted in the first round. Last year only one of the nine, Kiwanuka, managed to equal or surpass an injured Mike Vrabel in sacks. None of the nine had half as many sacks as Ware.

So which 3-4 OLBs drafted since Ware made the biggest impact?

1. LaMarr Woodley, drafted #46 overall
2. Mathias Kiwanuka, drafted #32 overall
3. Parys Haralson, drafted #140 overall

IOW, it's a tough, tough position to project.

 

[ayjackson]

A little followup on "DeMarcus Ware types":

Since 2005 when Ware & Merriman were drafted, by my count nine 3-4 OLB types have been drafted in the first round. Last year only one of the nine, Kiwanuka, managed to equal or surpass an injured Mike Vrabel in sacks. None of the nine had half as many sacks as Ware.

So which 3-4 OLBs drafted since Ware made the biggest impact?

1. LaMarr Woodley, drafted #46 overall
2. Mathias Kiwanuka, drafted #32 overall
3. Parys Haralson, drafted #140 overall

IOW, it's a tough, tough position to project.

and Kiwanuka is a 4-3 end, there is no evidence that he could adapt to a 3-4 OLB.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

A couple of stray thoughts...

First, there's a conversation that I keep seeing here a lot, it usually goes something like this:

A: OLB isn't a round-1 need.
B: Are you saying a DeMarcus Ware type wouldn't be a huge upgrade to this defense? Because that's where you get that kind of player.

So here's a question: how many "DeMarcus Ware types" do we think exist? I'm thinking DeMarcus Ware isn't a "type," he's the single best player at his position in the league, on track for the Hall of Fame. Or to put it another way, last year's draft featured three "DeMarcus Ware types" taken in the first 32 picks. They combined to register 4.5 sacks on the season.


Second stray thought...

Pierre Woods
Gary Guyton
Eric Alexander
Vince Redd

Is anybody else struck by what a large number of UDFA linebackers that is? It's especially weird given that guys like Woods and Guyton were incredible physical specimens who had reasonably productive careers at major college programs.

B-b-b-but I "want" a Demarcus Ware-type!

Oops! My bad, I've been on the other side of that "discussion." :confused2:

Is four UDFA LBs a large number? Make that five - Izzo. Whoops! 6 - Robertson.