Need advice fast!

[TBradyOwnsYou]

12 man league
QB, WR, WR, WR, RB, RB, TE, W/R/T, K, DEF, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN

Passing: 1/25yd, +6 @ 250yd, 6 for TD
Rush/Receive: 1/10yd, +6 @ 100yd, 6 for TD
-2 for INT/Fumble
-4 for pick 6

I have pick #4, do I reach for a QB with this scoring? If so, who would you grab?

 

[Ron Sellers]

With the #4 pick in a 12-team league, you should not even consider anything other than one of the top RBs: Adrian Peterson, Arian Foster, Chris Johnson if they are still there; otherwise probably Ray Rice, though you might consider Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy or Maurice Jones-Drew. You skip on a RB in the first round and at best your top RB is going to be the #21 overall player in the draft - something you will most likely regret.

If you were in a smaller league, say eight teams, I would consider it, but not in a 12-team league. Supply/demand dictates you take a RB there.

If your strategy is to pick up a top QB you should be able to get a good one (e.g., Rodgers, Vick, Brees, Brady) with your 3rd round pick. If the top QBs do happen to be gone by then don't panic and reach for one in the 3rd; go for a top WR instead.

 

[Banjo]

I always go RB in the first, WR in the second, and an elite QB if one's available in the third (usually Rivers). If I can't get a QB, I grab another RB and wait for Matt Ryan or Big Ben in a few rounds. I've seen Peyton Manning slip to the 4th or 5th round sometimes, which is crazy.

 

[TBradyOwnsYou]

With the modified scoring, the top 12 projected point leaders for the season are:
Rodgers-495
Vick-452
Brees-442
Rivers-421
Manning-410
Brady-399
Romo-396
Ryan-358
Schaub-342
Rapethisburger-330
Manning(E)-322
Foster-315

I took Rodgers.

 

[Ron Sellers]

With the modified scoring, the top 12 projected point leaders for the season are:
Rodgers-495
Vick-452
Brees-442
Rivers-421
Manning-410
Brady-399
Romo-396
Ryan-358
Schaub-342
Rapethisburger-330
Manning(E)-322
Foster-315

I took Rodgers.

Well, good luck on your season; hopefully for your sake you prove me wrong.

Personally I look more at something that, depending on where you go is called 'x-value', 'adjusted value' or other similar names rather than simply looking at who is projected to score the most points.

To keep it simple, a hypothetical two-team league with three positions

QB1 - 450 points
QB2 - 430 points
QB3 - 420 points

RB1 - 300 points
RB2 - 225 points
RB3 - 200 points

WR1 - 400 points
WR2 - 380 points
WR3 - 360 points

In this format RBs are the least important because they score the least amount of points, right?

Wrong.

If I nab RB1 I will outscore my opponent regardless of who else I pick and who else my opponent picks.

It's sort of the same rationale as to why in most leagues kickers and defenses are considered to be of very low value. In the scenario above there's not much difference between the top and bottom QB, or the top and bottom WR; however the difference between the top and even second best RB is enough to make him the most valuable player in the draft, even though all those other players score more than him.


The basic concept of x-value is you first find the number of starters at a position in your league. If you have 12 QBs (12 teams, 1 starting QB per team) the 12th ranked QB becomes your base. Let's say he is projected to score 300 points. The x-value of a QB projected to score 400 points is +100 (400 minus 300); a QB projected to score 360 is +60, a QB projected to score 275 is -25. Repeat for other positions; in a typical 12-team league the base for RB would be the 24th ranked RB; same for WR.

Normally you will find a big delta at RB, so that x-value for the top RBs goes up; other positions such as WR tend to get bunched very closely once you get past the top four or five WRs.



That's my strategy anyways; it has worked pretty well for me over the years. Please let us know how it turns out for you at the end of the season!

 

[TBradyOwnsYou]

Good points, I just had to go QB as every mock I did, if I waited until my 2nd pick, the entire elite class was gone which meant I didn't take a QB until the 4th or 5th and while I could hold my head high having a Rice or Charles, the highest scoring position in the league was manned by a scrub. With this scoring, last year Rodgers scored an average of over 30 points a game. I can see him doing even better this year and during weeks 14-16 (playoffs) he's got the easiest schedule by far
Don't get me wrong, I felt dirty taking a QB, but I'd never been in a league that was this QB friendly and I think it's going to be a game breaker. I'll keep you updated!

 

[Ron Sellers]

You know, looking at that scoring more closely I may re-evaluate my previous opinion. At first I didn't really make much of a difference between the positions in regards to the bonus points, because bonus points were available to all. However, bonus points in that league are far easier for a QB to attain than a RB or WR; 250 yards passing is not all that uncommon, especially in comparison to 100 yards rushing or 100 yards receiving. So in this case getting one of the QBs that is typically near the top of the league in passing yards does become decidedly more important.


On a side note, I personally don't care for bonus points for a big day or for a big play (e.g., some leagues give bonus points for TDs of 40 or more yards) all that much simply because it is a double reward for the same performance. For example a QB that throws for the most yardage on a given day is already outscoring other QBs; now he's getting even more points for the same totals.

My experience has been that leagues that use these scoring systems are dominated by teams that have the top two or three FF players that year, regardless of what the rest of their roster looks like; the difference between the top one or two FF point leaders and the rest tends to be much more dramatic than in other scoring systems. Those teams with those players are typically ones with one of the first draft picks, while those that happen to draft late have little or no chance to make up the difference unless they just happen to luck into having somebody that comes out of nowhere to have a huge year. A scoring system that allows for teams to be competitive even if they don't have one of the league's top two or three scorers tends to be more fun and interesting (and has fewer abandoned teams) in my opinion.

But, that's just me and my preference; I know others disagree and like those type of bonuses in their leagues.

 

[shakadave]

I'm one weekend into my first-ever fantasy football, and this thread is great for me to learn from. I'll just throw in my opinion that most fantasy leagues are structured so that RBs are too important. I'm in ESPN's non-custom league, and it's just too bad that it's become normal for RBs to be the top five draft picks as happened in my league.

P.S. I took Brees #8 in Round 1, and RBs in Rounds 3, 5, 8. As of tonight I'll have the highest week-one score in my league.

 

[bakes781]

I'm in a 14 team PPR and I took Ray Rice with the #2 overall pick. Had I been picking in the middle I would have targeted Rodgers or Vick. I was able to Brees in the 2nd round though so I was pretty happy with that. At WR I'm really thin though.

 

[Ron Sellers]

I'm in a 14 team PPR and I took Ray Rice with the #2 overall pick. Had I been picking in the middle I would have targeted Rodgers or Vick. I was able to Brees in the 2nd round though so I was pretty happy with that. At WR I'm really thin though.

That's one thing that I think may overlook, the size of the league. If you are in a league with 14 or more teams then a starting running back is much more scarce than it is in an 8 or 10 team league. With that many teams you're almost guaranteed to be thin at one position, but I would be ecstatic to come away with both Rice and Rodgers in that format. Once you get to that #41 overall pick (your 3rd round pick) and beyond you're not going to get a stud FF player unless you luck into a sleeper having a breakout year. At least there are enough WRs getting playing time and a few points that you have some choices; same cannot be said for the QB and RB positions.