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Nate Silver: Geek Superstar

Discussion in 'Political Discussion' started by shmessy, Nov 7, 2012.

  1. shmessy

    shmessy Maude Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #75 Jersey

    Last edited: Nov 7, 2012
  2. Drewski

    Drewski Rookie

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    I wonder if he could model other aspects of the human experience to as accurate a degree?
  3. shmessy

    shmessy Maude Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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  4. Patters

    Patters Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    What I like about Silver's approach is that he assumes that all the pollsters are honest. Whether they are favored by conservatives or liberals is not the point. Their methodologies are sincere and well reasoned. He then applies his own metrics based on various factors to draw his conclusions, which are highly accurate. I never believed for a second that Gallup, Rasmussen, PPP, or any of the other legitimate pollsters were out for political gain. I think if Silver's formula had shown Obama losing, he would have predicted that. I like the fact that he basically trusted the pollsters and then applied his own system to make a determination. His accuracy was impressive. In fact, I think he gave Obama something like a .20% advantage in Florida, which right now appears to be the case. Pretty darn incredible.
  5. Holy Diver

    Holy Diver Rookie

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    I heard a talking head contradict him a few days ago, I was dying of laughter. I'm paraphrasing:

    Pundit: "Nate silver takes ALL polls into consideratuion, so he is averaging those. Which is why I don't trust his #s."

    Anchor: "Well what is behind YOUR statistics?"

    Pundit: "I just believe in my numbers"




    super logical
  6. Drewski

    Drewski Rookie

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    Sounds like some of the people I work with in the various Product Lines here.

    Me: Here is your report.

    Them: Why are the numbers so low?

    Me: Well if I cross reference enrollment with account balance, it is because we are selling these products to people who don't need them.

    Them: I don't believe that. We have trainings within the Retail Sales Force to teach proper sales audience.

    Me: OK...... Can I stop building reports for you now?
  7. DarrylS

    DarrylS PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    NOt bad for an ex baseball guy, his wealth just expanded exponentially...
  8. Holy Diver

    Holy Diver Rookie

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    you and Mrs Diver sound like you have the exact same job!
  9. Drewski

    Drewski Rookie

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    Even the working with idiots part of it?

    If so, extend her my sympathies.
  10. Holy Diver

    Holy Diver Rookie

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    Yeah...I have to keep my mouth shut when I get home. Your scene sounds a lot like what I get to hear.
  11. Drewski

    Drewski Rookie

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    I know the feeling.

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