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Name the chance the following players drop to 7 and the chance they pats draft them

Discussion in 'Patriots Draft Talk' started by Free_Pacman, Apr 22, 2008.

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  1. Free_Pacman

    Free_Pacman Practice Squad Player

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    What are the chances the following guys drop to 7 and, assuming only one drops, what are the chances Patriots draft them?

    Dorsey 5% 90%

    Gholtson 50% 75%

    McFadden 15% 25%

    Chris Long 10% 90%
     
  2. JoePats

    JoePats In the Starting Line-Up

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    Re: Name the chance the following players drop to 7 and the chance they pats draft th

    The 2nd percentage assumes all the others are gone...

    Dorsey 1% 100%
    Gholston 25% 75%
    McFadden 30% 5%
    Chris Long 10% 80%
     
  3. BRiZ

    BRiZ Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    Re: Name the chance the following players drop to 7 and the chance they pats draft th

    Dorsey 2.8% 26%
    Gholston 63.6% 43.5%
    McFadden 54% 86.8%
    Chris Long 7.2% 100%
     
  4. rookBoston

    rookBoston 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

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    #12 Jersey

    Re: Name the chance the following players drop to 7 and the chance they pats draft th

    I actually started evaluating all the likely permutations...

    JLong, Dorsey, Ryan, McFadden, Clady, Gholston
    JLong, Dorsey, Ryan, Ellis, Clady, McFadden
    JLong, Dorsey, Ryan, Ellis, Clady, Gholston
    JLong, Dorsey, Ryan, McFadden, Albert, Gholston
    etc.
    etc.

    ... to figure out the odds. I quickly found some patterns.

    - JLong will not get past St Louis.

    - In no situation did I ever have Dorsey dropping past #4. Oakland is desperate for a DT and will not pass on him.

    - CLong drops to #7 in situations where two of Ryan, Ellis, Clady and Albert are taken in the top-6. And it also assumes that the Jets would choose Gholston or McFadden over Long. Theoretically possible, but is that really realistic?

    - Ryan could go #3, #5, #7 (in a trade), but never past Baltimore at #8.

    - McFadden could go #4 or #6, and if he drops to #7 someone like Dallas will trade up for him.

    - Gholston is a good bet for Oakland, and rarely gets past #6. Only in the few situations where both Gholston and McFadden are available to the Jets does he drop to the Pats. The draft would have to go something like Long - Dorsey - Ryan - Long - Clady in the top 5.

    Even better would be Long - Dorsey - Ryan - Ellis - Clady, because then the Jets are looking at CLong, Gholston and McFadden, and we'll have the choice of at least one game breaking OLB.

    IMO, Chance of lasting to #7:
    Jake Long - 0%
    Glenn Dorsey - 0%
    Chris Long - 5%
    Matt Ryan - 60%
    Vernon Gholston - 30%
    Darren McFadden - 30%
    Sedrick Ellis - 80%
    Ryan Clady - 90%
     
  5. dryheat44

    dryheat44 Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    #75 Jersey

    Re: Name the chance the following players drop to 7 and the chance they pats draft th

    78.4 % of statistics are made up on the spot. Didn't you know that? Or are you one of the 5.9% who don't?
     
  6. JoePats

    JoePats In the Starting Line-Up

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    Re: Name the chance the following players drop to 7 and the chance they pats draft th

    I disagree that if Dorsey was available there is only a 26% chance the Patriots would take him.
     
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