Name 5 Upgrades or Replacements

[Rob0729]

Since the Pace draft (1997), there have been 28 tackles taken in the first round.

1998:
- William "Tra" Thomas (Multiple time pro bowler)
- Victor Riley (played from 1998-2005)
- Mo Collins (played until 2003)

1999:
- John Tait (Still playing after 9 seasons)
- Matt Stinchcomb (Played from 1999-2006)
- L.J. Shelton (Still playing)
- Aaron Gibson (played from 1999-2004)

2000:
- Chris Samuels (5 time Pro Bowl selection)
- Stockar McDougle (played from 2000-2006
- Chris McIntosh (played only through 2002)

2001:
- Kenyatta Walker (played 2001-2006 for Tampa)
- Jeff Backus (Still playing for the Lions, with a 6 year $40 million contract)

2002:
- Mike Williams (played for Buffalo and Jacksonville)
- Bryant McKinnie (Still playing for Minnesota)
- Levi Jones (Still playing for Bengals, w/6 year $40 million contract)
- Mark Colombo (Has played for Chicago and Dallas, allowed only 1 sack in 2006)

2003:
- Jordan Gross (Still playing for Carolina)
- George Foster (has played for Denver and the Lions)
- Kwame Harris (Still playing for the 49ers)

2004:
- Robert Gallery (failed as a tackle, better as a guard)
- Shawn Andrews (Multiple pro bowls, All Pro)
- Vernon Carey (has played his whole career in Miami)

2005:
- Jammal Brown (Pro Bowl and All Pro selection)
- Alex Barron (Has started 43 of 44 games played in his career)

2006:
- D'Brickashaw Ferguson (Still with the Jets, too soon to tell, but disappointing)

2007:
- Joe Thomas (Pro Bowler already)
- Levi Brown (Too soon to tell for certain, started 11 of 13 games as a rookie)
- Joe Staley (Started every game as a rookie)

If you think only Chris Samuels and Joe Thomas fall into the 'above average to great' category from that list, I don't know what to tell you other than you're wrong.

Ummm... How many of these guys are playing LEFT TACKLE? Many of these guys are playing other positions. Guys like John Tait, Jordan Gross, Shawn Andrews, Tra Thomas have made their names at other positions other than LT.

If you are looking for a guy to play LT in the first round, you are most likely going to be out of luck. You specifically said LT and first round LTs are usually busts or disapointments. The odds say you will not find Light's immediate or future replacement in the first round.

At least you proved my point, that over the last decade the first round hasn't produced many above average to great LTs. We might get a great RT or guard, but you don't want a great RT or guard with the seventh pick in the draft.

 

[Deus Irae]

Ummm... How many of these guys are playing LEFT TACKLE? Many of these guys are playing other positions. Guys like John Tait, Jordan Gross, Shawn Andrews, Tra Thomas have made their names at other positions other than LT.

If you are looking for a guy to play LT in the first round, you are most likely going to be out of luck. You specifically said LT and first round LTs are usually busts or disapointments. The odds say you will not find Light's immediate or future replacement in the first round.

At least you proved my point, that over the last decade the first round hasn't produced many above average to great LTs. We might get a great RT or guard, but you don't want a great RT or guard with the seventh pick in the draft.

Your initial point was the following:

No way do I want the Patriots using a first round pick on a LT. Other than QB, I don't think there has been a position with more first round and even top 10 pick busts than the tackle position....

The list I produced showed me that you were wrong in my estimation. There haven't been all that many first round busts at the tackle position since the Pace draft. Drafting a top rated LT has led to above average to excellent tackles quite often, whether or not they ended up on the left side. The team has its biggest needs at linebacker, possibly CB, and nowhere else. Given the team's history of seeking experienced linebackers for starters and drafting LB's low in the hopes of coaching them up, a first round pick for an LB would seem a stretch. This trend becomes even more noteworthy to me when I see that NFL.com lists only 5 ILB's drafted in the first round this decade. That leaves CB, which is another area of need, but one that this team seems to survive without taking at the top of the draft.

I'm not sold on the current pair of right tackles. Drafting the best LT prospect available and moving him to the right side will allow him to work into the position while Light still mans the fort. When Light begins his decline, the switch can be made. If the player doesn't develop into a quality Left Tackle kind of player, you'll likely still have a quality RT. While my preference was for Oher to come out this season and be placed under Dante's tutelage, this seems to be a pretty good year for top quality tackles, and New England chooses 7th in the first round and then waits for most of the first and second rounds to pass before getting another pick. I'll take the LT in the first round and a CB in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

For the record, the TOTAL number of tackles drafted in the top 10 since the Pace draft is only 9:

Joe Thomas
Levi Brown
D'Brickashaw Ferguson
Robert Gallery
Jordan Gross
Mike Williams
Bryant McKinnie
Levi Jones
Chris Samuels

Arguing that there haven't been a lot of great ones taken when there's only been 9 taken overall, and 3 were in the past 2 seasons, is a bit of a straw man argument. The truly 'elite' left tackles of recent years have, after all, been top picks: Pace, Jones, Thomas, Boselli, Roaf, etc... The question becomes whether or not a player like a Jake Long/Ryan Clady/etc... merits first round status. If so, New England no longer has a pick at the end of the round to use.

 

[blackglass3]

where's the speed and pass rushers?

usually the d end in a 4-3 is a speed rusher

Sorry man, I am just a lowly USAF server admin. I am not trying to take over for Dean Pees...just throwing out a suggestion.

 

[Rob0729]

Your initial point was the following:



The list I produced showed me that you were wrong in my estimation. There haven't been all that many first round busts at the tackle position since the Pace draft. Drafting a top rated LT has led to above average to excellent tackles quite often, whether or not they ended up on the left side. The team has its biggest needs at linebacker, possibly CB, and nowhere else. Given the team's history of seeking experienced linebackers for starters and drafting LB's low in the hopes of coaching them up, a first round pick for an LB would seem a stretch. This trend becomes even more noteworthy to me when I see that NFL.com lists only 5 ILB's drafted in the first round this decade. That leaves CB, and I'm not finding a lot of 'experts' that think CB has a lot of top 10 pick worthy options this year.

I'm not sold on the current pair of right tackles. Drafting the best LT prospect available and moving him to the right side will allow him to work into the position while Light still mans the fort. When Light begins his decline, the switch can be made. If the player doesn't develop into a quality Left Tackle kind of player, you'll likely still have a quality RT. While my preference was for Oher to come out this season and be placed under Dante's tutelage, this seems to be a pretty good year for top quality tackles, and New England chooses 7th in the first round and then waits for most of the first and second rounds to pass before getting another pick. I'll take the LT in the first round and a CB in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

For the record, the TOTAL number of tackles drafted in the top 10 since the Pace draft is only 9:

Joe Thomas
Levi Brown
D'Brickashaw Ferguson
Robert Gallery
Jordan Gross
Mike Williams
Bryant McKinnie
Levi Jones
Chris Samuels

Arguing that there haven't been a lot of great ones taken when there's only been 9 taken overall, and 3 were in the past 2 seasons, is a bit of a straw man argument. The truly 'elite' left tackles of recent years have, after all, been top picks: Pace, Jones, Thomas, Boselli, Roaf, etc...

Sorry, but I asked to name quality LTs. There aren't many. Even guys who ended up playing other positions on the list you originally listed, only a hadful lived up to first round potential. Just playing in the league for a number of years or even starting does not mean you weren't a first round disapointment. Stephen Neal has been a starting guard for us for the last five or six years. He isn't a first round quality player.

IMHO, I don't believe you waste a high first round draft pick on a RT who may get moved to LT in 3-4 years. You can get a RT in later rounds. I agree we need to upgrade the RT position, but certainly not in the first round with the 7th pick in the draft. We have four picks in the first three rounds, I wouldn't mind if we use one of those picks on a tackle.

I still maintain my point that there are more busts and disapointments at tackle than any other position in the first round other than QB. You have every right to disagree with me, but I don't want us to use the 7th pick to replace Nick Kazcur for the short term. I want a guy who is going to contend for rookie of the year and be a Pro Bowler by the time you want this tackle to transition to LT.

 

[Deus Irae]

Sorry, but I asked to name quality LTs. There aren't many. Even guys who ended up playing other positions on the list you originally listed, only a hadful lived up to first round potential. Just playing in the league for a number of years or even starting does not mean you weren't a first round disapointment. Stephen Neal has been a starting guard for us for the last five or six years. He isn't a first round quality player.

IMHO, I don't believe you waste a high first round draft pick on a RT who may get moved to LT in 3-4 years. You can get a RT in later rounds. I agree we need to upgrade the RT position, but certainly not in the first round with the 7th pick in the draft. We have four picks in the first three rounds, I wouldn't mind if we use one of those picks on a tackle.

I still maintain my point that there are more busts and disapointments at tackle than any other position in the first round other than QB. You have every right to disagree with me, but I don't want us to use the 7th pick to replace Nick Kazcur for the short term. I want a guy who is going to contend for rookie of the year and be a Pro Bowler by the time you want this tackle to transition to LT.

1.) You made 3 points, one of which I believe was clearly wrong, another was likely completely wrong, and the third which had no real relevance since, naturally, I don't want the team to take a player at #7 who's not talent-worthy of being a high pick. The operating assumption is, of course, that one of the highly rated tackles is believed by Belioli to be worth the hype.

2.) rather than continue down the "bust" alley anymore, let me put this another way:

Barring an "Orlando Pace" level of player, there's no room for a starter at the following positions:

QB
RB
WR
DL
OLB

One could argue the following:
TE (Now, Belioli has shown a fondness for the TE position in the past, but this wouldn't seem to be a great year for taking one in the first round.)
S (it would be a tough argument to make, but I'll concede it for discussion)

ILB is an area that simply doesn't get drafted in the first round anymore, so I'm not even going down that road at #7. The same applies to any potential FB issues. So, again... that leaves realistic room for a starter at:

CB
OL

In other words, if you're looking for a ROY candidate to be on the Patriots, you're looking for a tackle, guard or a cornerback. Any other position is coming off the bench.

 

[Rob0729]

1.) You made 3 points, one of which I believe was clearly wrong, another was likely completely wrong, and the third which had no real relevance since, naturally, I don't want the team to take a player at #7 who's not talent-worthy of being a high pick. The operating assumption is, of course, that one of the highly rated tackles is believed by Belioli to be worth the hype.

2.) rather than continue down the "bust" alley anymore, let me put this another way:

Barring an "Orlando Pace" level of player, there's no room for a starter at the following positions:

QB
RB
WR
DL
OLB

One could argue the following:
TE (Now, Belioli has shown a fondness for the TE position in the past, but this wouldn't seem to be a great year for taking one in the first round.)
S (it would be a tough argument to make, but I'll concede it for discussion)

ILB is an area that simply doesn't get drafted in the first round anymore, so I'm not even going down that road at #7. The same applies to any potential FB issues. So, again... that leaves realistic room for a starter at:

CB
OL

In other words, if you're looking for a ROY candidate to be on the Patriots, you're looking for a tackle, guard or a cornerback. Any other position is coming off the bench.

I think you are just as wrong as you think I am. There has been no franchise LT to come out of the draft since Pace and Jones in the first round. Most of the tackles taken in the first round have not lived up to expectations even if they were not outright busts.

Second, I think we can get a potential ROY candidate and immediate starter on the Pats any of the following positions:
- CB
- Safety - I'd like to get Harrison's replacement sooner rather than later and actually use Harrison more sparingly next year since he has been a liability in coverage at times. Also neither Sanders or Meriweather have shown enough to say if there is a stud FS safety out there that we don't go after him at that spot
- ILB - Remember David Harris had a great year playing ILB in the Pats' style of defense. If he started the entire year, he probably would have be a strong contender for DROY.
-OLB - It will be tough to pass on Gholston if he is available. If Chris Long somehow falls to 7, the Pats would be crazy to pass on him (but that is very unlikely that he would fall that far)
- WR - No guarantee Moss, Stallworth, or Gaffney are back. Even if we get Moss back, we may need another starter to compliment him since we use a lot of 3-4 WR sets.

As for ILBs getting drafted in the first round, Patrick Willis was drafted 11th overall in the draft and won DROY. I don't know how that position is related to FB. It isn't as popular a pick as some other, but that position has been taken in the top 10 several times in the recent years.

As I already stated, OLB is a posibilty in my mind since Gholston is potentially on the board when we pick. Both Colvin and Vrabel are on the wrong side of 30. So is AD too. Colvin is coming off a season ending injury and carries an over $7 million cap hit. We may want to replace him or do a three man rotation outside like we did in 2004 with Vrabel, McGinest, and Colvin. If we drafted Gholston, Vrabel and AD could move inside on a lot of downs.

 

[Wotan_the_Wanderer]

Don't you think it's about time to? How many years do Seau, Tedy, Harrison, and Vrabel have left? If you rebuild ahead of time, you set up for the future.

No, I don't think it's time to rebuild at all, but it's always time to add some pieces as departures and upgrades (or as you mentioned an injection of youth at a couple spots) necessitate during the offseason.

IOW, one failed all out blitz from a SB win never means a team should enter rebuild mode.

 

[Deus Irae]

I think you are just as wrong as you think I am. There has been no franchise LT to come out of the draft since Pace and Jones in the first round. Most of the tackles taken in the first round have not lived up to expectations even if they were not outright busts.

First you are confusing "franchise" with "Hall of Fame". Thomas clearly had a franchise type of rookie season, just to point out the obvious first example that springs to mind.

Second, the list I put down pretty clearly shows your "expectations" argument to be wrong, unless you're going to claim that "expectations" are that every first rounder becomes a pro bowl player.

Second, I think we can get a potential ROY candidate and immediate starter on the Pats any of the following positions:
- CB
- Safety - I'd like to get Harrison's replacement sooner rather than later and actually use Harrison more sparingly next year since he has been a liability in coverage at times. Also neither Sanders or Meriweather have shown enough to say if there is a stud FS safety out there that we don't go after him at that spot
- ILB - Remember David Harris had a great year playing ILB in the Pats' style of defense. If he started the entire year, he probably would have be a strong contender for DROY.
-OLB - It will be tough to pass on Gholston if he is available. If Chris Long somehow falls to 7, the Pats would be crazy to pass on him (but that is very unlikely that he would fall that far)
- WR - No guarantee Moss, Stallworth, or Gaffney are back. Even if we get Moss back, we may need another starter to compliment him since we use a lot of 3-4 WR sets.

- Gholston isn't getting the position over Thomas, Vrabel or Colvin this year, certainly not early enough in the season to compete for any ROY title, barring injuries.
- Harris makes a lot of tackles well past where they should have been made, and had no shot at ROY even playing for a team desperate for a player in the middle.
- The starting safeties will be 2 of the Meriweather/Harrison/Sanders trio, whether the team drafts a safety or not. Wilson started right away out of necessity, not because New England planned it from day one.
- The team is not going to draft a WR at #7, will be bringing back Moss, Welker and, almost certainly, at least one of the Gaffney/Stallworth duo. There won't be a starting job available for a WR; any wide receiver drafted will be competing for time with Jackson.

As for ILBs getting drafted in the first round, Patrick Willis was drafted 11th overall in the draft and won DROY. I don't know how that position is related to FB. It isn't as popular a pick as some other, but that position has been taken in the top 10 several times in the recent years.

Go look at the number of ILBs who've even been drafted in the first round since 2000 and you'll understand my point about that (Willis is the only one this decade, and he was taken at 11). As for middle linebackers, since 2000, only 5 have been chosen in the first round, and only Urlacher (#9) was a top 10 pick (all data was pulled from NFL.com so, if you don't like the classifications, it's not my fault).

As I already stated, OLB is a posibilty in my mind since Gholston is potentially on the board when we pick. Both Colvin and Vrabel are on the wrong side of 30. So is AD too. Colvin is coming off a season ending injury and carries an over $7 million cap hit. We may want to replace him or do a three man rotation outside like we did in 2004 with Vrabel, McGinest, and Colvin. If we drafted Gholston, Vrabel and AD could move inside on a lot of downs.

Nothing Belioli does is likely to shock me, short of drafting a QB at #7, but I don't see your points happening, and the fascination people here have with the notion that the NE linebackers are too old is really quite bizarre. Vrabel was clearly one of the best linebackers in the league last season, and Colvin and Thomas are younger than he is. It's really an argument about one position (the Bruschi/Seau position at ILB) that's been expanded to the entire corps for no real reason. BB is not likely to play a rookie over the #1 free agent signing of last season, the team's best linebacker, or Colvin, who's arguably the team's best pass rusher and is a very solid all around linebacker when healthy.

 

[Rob0729]

First you are confusing "franchise" with "Hall of Fame". Thomas clearly had a franchise type of rookie season, just to point out the obvious first example that springs to mind.

Funny, I consider a franchise LT someone you can build a line around. There has arguably been two. I mentioned Thomas already as potentially on. Samuels is the only other one.

Second, the list I put down pretty clearly shows your "expectations" argument to be wrong, unless you're going to claim that "expectations" are that every first rounder becomes a pro bowl player.

Last time I checked, a first round pick is supposed to do more than stick around with a team for a number of years and be a mediocre starter. Yeah, guys like Kenyatta Walker and Kwame Harris have played for a number of year, but they still suck. Joey Harrington is still playing in the league and even started for a decent size portion of the last two years. Does that mean he wasn't a bust?

- Gholston isn't getting the position over Thomas, Vrabel or Colvin this year, certainly not early enough in the season to compete for any ROY title, barring injuries.

How do you know that? Do you know for sure that Colvin will be back next year or at 100%? Do you know if Bruschi or Seau will be back? Maybe they will move Vrabel inside.

- Harris makes a lot of tackles well past where they should have been made, and had no shot at ROY even playing for a team desperate for a player in the middle.

DROY is all about stats and Harris' stats would have rivaled Patrick Willis if he played all year Of course he would have been a contender for the title.

I can't say I saw many 49ers games, but how many of Patrick Willis' 174 tackles (which was 47 more tackles than Harris eventhough he started 7 more games) were well past where they should have been? Considering the team Willis played on, I bet a lot.

Harris did have more sacks than Willis (5 vs. 4). They had the same number of forced fumbles in 2. Willis was definitely better, but I don't know if it is worlds better.

Harris was 8th in the league in tackles eventhough only starting 9 games. Vilma wasn't putting up that type of production.

- The starting safeties will be 2 of the Meriweather/Harrison/Sanders trio, whether the team drafts a safety or not. Wilson started right away out of necessity, not because New England planned it from day one.

I wouldn't bet on it if the Pats draft a safety at seven. What does Wilson have to do with anything. I do doubt that any rookie would start right away no matter what position since Belichick doesn't hand over rookie jobs, but like Seymour he could win the job pretty quickly.

- The team is not going to draft a WR at #7, will be bringing back Moss, Welker and, almost certainly, at least one of the Gaffney/Stallworth duo. There won't be a starting job available for a WR; any wide receiver drafted will be competing for time with Jackson.

It is very doubtful that Stallworth will be back unless we can't get Moss to come back. Stallworth wants to be the guy. Gaffney was the fourth WR for most of the year, if the Pats draft a WR at #7 there is no reason why he wouldn't be the 4th WR again.

Go look at the number of ILBs who've even been drafted in the first round since 2000 and you'll understand my point about that (Willis is the only one this decade, and he was taken at 11). As for middle linebackers, since 2000, only 5 have been chosen in the first round, and only Urlacher (#9) was a top 10 pick (all data was pulled from NFL.com so, if you don't like the classifications, it's not my fault).

How many FBs have been drafted in the first round? It is weak argument in my opinion trying to draw a distinction between ILB and MLB. Of course there are very few ILBs if you want to draw the distinction of an ILB vs. MLB. How many schools actually employ the 3-4 at the college level? Of course there wouldn't be many 3-4 ILBs taken in the draft in the first round.

Nothing Belioli does is likely to shock me, short of drafting a QB at #7, but I don't see your points happening, and the fascination people here have with the notion that the NE linebackers are too old is really quite bizarre. Vrabel was clearly one of the best linebackers in the league last season, and Colvin and Thomas are younger than he is. It's really an argument about one position (the Bruschi/Seau position at ILB) that's been expanded to the entire corps for no real reason. BB is not likely to play a rookie over the #1 free agent signing of last season, the team's best linebacker, or Colvin, who's arguably the team's best pass rusher and is a very solid all around linebacker when healthy.

The Patriots LBs are old. Colvin is coming off a season ending injury and we have no idea what shape he is in and he has a tenuous cap situation. We aren't even sure the guy will be on the team. Odds are very good he will be, but if he can't run at 100% he will be far less effective since he relies on his speed.

The Pats prefer to be able to have three OLBs that they can rotate. Because of depth they couldn't do it this past season, but they did do it very liberally in 2004 and McGinest had one of his better year eventhough his playing time was limited. Even 2002, the Pats did it with Vrabel, Colvin, and TBC until Seau got injured and TBC was forced to start. If the Pats drafted Gholston, he could still have the potential to have a DROY type of season even if he isn't the official starter.

I'm sorry, but my take is taking a RT at the #7 spot or even trading down into the teens and taking a RT is a mistake. Even if you expect him to take Light's spot one day. We have won Super Bowls with with guys like Brandon Gorin, Tom Ashworth, and Greg Robinson-Randall manning the right side of the line. RT isn't important enough of a position to use a high first round pick. If we had an immediate upgrade at LT, then I would agree with you.

 

[Deus Irae]

Last time I checked, a first round pick is supposed to do more than stick around with a team for a number of years and be a mediocre starter. Yeah, guys like Kenyatta Walker and Kwame Harris have played for a number of year, but they still suck. Joey Harrington is still playing in the league and even started for a decent size portion of the last two years. Does that mean he wasn't a bust?

You seemingly expect every player drafted to be a pro bowler, just because there's a first round tag on him. That's not how the NFL works. Since that's your baseline for your expectations, there's no point continuing this, because we'll never agree on it. However, let me refer you to an espn article by Ted Kluck:

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=kluck/wrapup/070425&sportCat=nfl

 

[Brady'sButtBoy]

Why improving the pass rush is more important than signing Samuel-

>How well did Samuel play after Colvin went down? Like the rest of the DB's, he was softer and regularly unable to hang with his man because the opposing QB's had too much time. And "too much time" is very relative - all we needed in the SB was to get to Manning .5 second sooner when he threw to Tyree. We won SB's with all three CB's being of lower quality than Samuel is now - the pass rush was just a little better.

Thus, my #1 upgrade would be at OLB- Terrell Suggs. He'll probably be too much money. If so, I'd turn to Calvin Pace, who'd come a little cheaper, is only 26, is big - 6'4" 270lbs., and has made the transition successfully from DE to LB. he might be ready for some winning after toiling for the Cardinals. Otherwise, drafting a pass rushing OLB has to be our first pick.

#2 Safety or CB (which ever one Merriweather isn't going to play.) Like it or not, I think we're going to have to live with J. Sanders as our SS for the time being. Rodney, God love him, just doesn't have the juice to start any more. If Meriweather had caught half of the INTs he dropped this year there would be much more enthusiasm about him here. If a Meriweather/Sanders tandem at safety is the plan, then I'd try hard to re-sign Gay. If he goes, then Drayton Florence, who will be one third the money Samuel gets. If Meriweather is to play CB then I'd draft a safety in the 1st round, wherever we end up picking - assuming we've already signed Pace or Suggs.

#3 WR - as of now we have Chad Jackson and Wes Welker starting at WR, that makes Moss sound pretty good. It all hinges on Jackson - does BB really think he can play? Then why all the inactives down the stretch? I'd make bringing Gaffney back a priority either way. Stallworth is gone and washington couldn't get on the field ahead of Gaffney, so count them out. Bryant Johnson is a solid player and would cost less than half of what Moss will get. I'd be very surprised not to se a WR drafted in the first four rounds either way.

#4 - Youth at ILB. Even if AD moves back inside, we need someone growing into the position. Spend a high draft pick on an ILB, please....

#5 - can Dave Thomas block and stay healthy? The guy sure can catch the ball. He and Brady and Watson make a solid TE group but drop be surprised to see BB sign or draft a fairly high profile TE anyway, the position underperformed for the team this year.

 

[Handel]

2. LT ... move Light to RT.
.

This is the biggest phantasm of Pats fan base. Forget about it. The guy has played since 2001 at LT. And you think he fits for RT and the position change will be successful?

Light is at LT to stay there until he retires/is cut/traded/.

 

[Handel]

Terrell Suggs

On his way to be franchised.

 

[Rob0729]

You seemingly expect every player drafted to be a pro bowler, just because there's a first round tag on him. That's not how the NFL works. Since that's your baseline for your expectations, there's no point continuing this, because we'll never agree on it. However, let me refer you to an espn article by Ted Kluck:

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=kluck/wrapup/070425&sportCat=nfl

Interesting article. But since this article includes all o-linemen and tracks draft picks for far longer than the past decade (back to 1989) and only up to 2003, I don't know if it tells us much. It is interesting that during the last decade, Kluck has labeled at least one OT first round pick a bust each of the years he studied including guys you claimed weren't like Marco Columbo, Kenyatta Walker, and George Foster.

Also it is interesting to note that in the timeframe he mentioned only 2 OTs who were drafted from 1999 to 2003 went to Pro Bowls and he labelled 6 OTs drafted busts. Sounds like when it comes to tackles alone during the time period I stated, this article supports my theory.

 

[Rob0729]

This is the biggest phantasm of Pats fan base. Forget about it. The guy has played since 2001 at LT. And you think he fits for RT and the position change will be successful?

Light is at LT to stay there until he retires/is cut/traded/.

I totally agree. People who want to move Light really don't realize how good we have it with him. No he is not the potential successor to Orlando Pace's/Walter Jones' crown as the elite LT in the league, but we could do far, far worse than him.

This isn't the 90s anymore where elite LTs seemed to be plentiful in the draft (Pace, Jones, Willie Roaf, Tony Boselli, Jonathan Ogden, Tarik Glenn). The past decade has been pretty devoid of of elite LTs coming out of the draft. In fact, when you think of the best LTs in the league, most were drafted last decade.

 

[Deus Irae]

Interesting article. But since this article includes all o-linemen and tracks draft picks for far longer than the past decade (back to 1989) and only up to 2003, I don't know if it tells us much. It is interesting that during the last decade, Kluck has labeled at least one OT first round pick a bust each of the years he studied including guys you claimed weren't like Marco Columbo, Kenyatta Walker, and George Foster.

Also it is interesting to note that in the timeframe he mentioned only 2 OTs who were drafted from 1999 to 2003 went to Pro Bowls and he labelled 6 OTs drafted busts. Sounds like when it comes to tackles alone during the time period I stated, this article supports my theory.

Only if you ignore what he actually says:

The encouraging news is that most of the tackles deemed worthy of a top-10 selection went on to visit the Pro Bowl, which bodes well for Joe Thomas this year. And though the rest of the first round busted at the same percentage as the defensive ends (31 percent), there were a number of players like Andy Heck, Bob Whitfield, and John Fina who enjoyed long, productive careers but never visited a Pro Bowl.

And, again, since we see this so differently, there's no reason to discuss it further.

 

[DaBruinz]

I'm not confused. Light is a 2007 AP All-Pro tackle.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story?id=09000d5d805db597&template=with-video&confirm=true

Consider this to be the second time you've heard about it.

As far as ML goes, I think he's a tad overrated (his high # of false starts are inexcusable -- let's put it this way: he's the only offensive lineman my GF knows by name; that's not a good thing) but he is still above-average and when I think of positions in need of upgrade, LT is not one of them.

Then I stand Corrected. I like Matt Light, but he definitely wasn't the best LT in the league this year.

Well, in order to make a realistic "Need" list, you need to make an assumption. If Vegas had odds, I'd imagine Asante staying a Patriot would be something like 10-1.

CB is a need in general. As for Vegas odds, who cares. Fact is that Samuel has said he wants to return. Whether or not that happens is another story. For now, he's a FA that the Patriots could re-sign.

I'd say this more attributable to the PR coverage team and the excellent ST play of Washington than the prowess of Hanson. Plus, 44 is not a lot of punts. That's 32% punts being returned. Not sure what the league average is on that, but doesn't strike me as out of this world.

Anyway, Hanson is an average punter. Sure he looks great when compared to Walter, but I think when you look for an area of improvement, punter is one of them. It's not a weakness, but it can def. improved.

Actually, its 31.8%. And, as I mentioned in another thread, the BEST in the league was only 31.6%. Also, the Pats were 2nd in the league at 5.4 (5.357) yards allowed per punt. While the GROSS was only 41.6, the NET was 39.7. Good for 10th in the league.

Now, where I think there is a legitimate gripe is with the number of punts inside the 20. There were only 13 of 44. Also, the number of TBs, by %, was the 2nd highest in the league at 13.6%. Otherwise, I think you can't ask for much more.

Agree to agree on this one. I think Hester -- while a tad light as you note -- is a great Patriot type of guy. If he puts on a few pounds I think he'd be a great addition to this offense.

Hester is 228. If he blocks as good as they say he does (which is supposedly excellent) I see no reason for him to put on weight.

 

[Rob0729]

Only if you ignore what he actually says:



And, again, since we see this so differently, there's no reason to discuss it further.

If you look at the following page:

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=kluck/offensiveline/070425

You will see that most of those tackles were drafted prior to 1998 including Willie Roaf, Richmond Webb, Tony Boselli, Willie Anderson, Lincoln Kennedy, and Jonathan Ogden. The 90s was a great decade for tackles. This decade isn't.

You need to look at his supporting material more and you will see that the 90s skew this information a ton. Some of the best tackles of all time were drafted in that decade. There aren't many or any so far in this decade.

 

[DaBruinz]

Since the Pace draft (1997), there have been 28 tackles taken in the first round.

1998:
- William "Tra" Thomas (Multiple time pro bowler)
- Victor Riley (played from 1998-2005)
- Mo Collins (played until 2003)

1999:
- John Tait (Still playing after 9 seasons) Has not played LT.
- Matt Stinchcomb (Played from 1999-2006) Has not played LT.
- L.J. Shelton (Still playing) Has not played LT.
- Aaron Gibson (played from 1999-2004)

2000:
- Chris Samuels (5 time Pro Bowl selection)
- Stockar McDougle (played from 2000-2006) I don't believe he played LT
- Chris McIntosh (played only through 2002)

2001:
- Kenyatta Walker (played 2001-2006 for Tampa) Pretty Sure he was only a RT
- Jeff Backus (Still playing for the Lions, with a 6 year $40 million contract)

2002:
- Mike Williams (played for Buffalo and Jacksonville) Total Bust
- Bryant McKinnie (Still playing for Minnesota)
- Levi Jones (Still playing for Bengals, w/6 year $40 million contract)
- Mark Colombo (Has played for Chicago and Dallas, allowed only 1 sack in 2006) Colombo is playing RT.

2003:
- Jordan Gross (Still playing for Carolina) Hasn't been good at LT
- George Foster (has played for Denver and the Lions)
- Kwame Harris (Still playing for the 49ers) He's been a bust.

2004:
- Robert Gallery (failed as a tackle, better as a guard) But he was drafted to be a LT. This supports the point you were trying to show was incorrect.
- Shawn Andrews (Multiple pro bowls, All Pro) Was drafted as a OG, not an OT.
- Vernon Carey (has played his whole career in Miami) Was drafted as a LT, but has spent more time at RT than anywhere else.

2005:
- Jammal Brown (Pro Bowl and All Pro selection)
- Alex Barron (Has started 43 of 44 games played in his career) All of them at RT

2006:
- D'Brickashaw Ferguson (Still with the Jets, too soon to tell, but disappointing)

2007:
- Joe Thomas (Pro Bowler already)
- Levi Brown (Too soon to tell for certain, started 11 of 13 games as a rookie) Hes playing RT, but that is Leinhart's blindside.
- Joe Staley (Started every game as a rookie)

If you think only Chris Samuels and Joe Thomas fall into the 'above average to great' category from that list, I don't know what to tell you other than you're wrong.

First off, the poster you replied to was referring, specifically, to LTs. You mentioned LTs, RT, and some OGs. How does that support your idea that the poster was wrong? If anything, your list shows that getting a quality LT in the first round is a very RARE occurence.

 

[DaBruinz]

I think you are just as wrong as you think I am. There has been no franchise LT to come out of the draft since Pace and Jones in the first round. Most of the tackles taken in the first round have not lived up to expectations even if they were not outright busts.

Gotta disagree with you there. Jammal Brown and Joe Thomas have looked like franchise LTs.

Second, I think we can get a potential ROY candidate and immediate starter on the Pats any of the following positions:
- CB
- Safety - I'd like to get Harrison's replacement sooner rather than later and actually use Harrison more sparingly next year since he has been a liability in coverage at times. Also neither Sanders or Meriweather have shown enough to say if there is a stud FS safety out there that we don't go after him at that spot
- ILB - Remember David Harris had a great year playing ILB in the Pats' style of defense. If he started the entire year, he probably would have be a strong contender for DROY.
-OLB - It will be tough to pass on Gholston if he is available. If Chris Long somehow falls to 7, the Pats would be crazy to pass on him (but that is very unlikely that he would fall that far)
- WR - No guarantee Moss, Stallworth, or Gaffney are back. Even if we get Moss back, we may need another starter to compliment him since we use a lot of 3-4 WR sets.

Pats believe they already have their replacement for Harrison at SS in Sanders. To say that you would already replace Meriweather because he didn't show enough his rookie season speaks volumes about your ability to understand how the Pats bring people along. The Pats had 3 starting quality safeties in front of Meriweather. They drafted Meriweather because they knew they'd probably be losing one or both of either Harrison (retirement) or Wilson (free agency).

I don't believe you can compare the Pats 3-4 to the Jets 3-4. But that's just me. Yes, the basics are there, but the Pats do a lot more changing up than the Jets did last year.

The Pats used a lot of 3-4 WR sets because they were without quality depth at TE. Also, I'd put one that at least one of Moss, Stallworth and Gaffney are back.

As for ILBs getting drafted in the first round, Patrick Willis was drafted 11th overall in the draft and won DROY. I don't know how that position is related to FB. It isn't as popular a pick as some other, but that position has been taken in the top 10 several times in the recent years.

Willis is not starting in a 3-4 2 Gap defense. He's playing in a 3-4 1 gap defense.

As I already stated, OLB is a posibilty in my mind since Gholston is potentially on the board when we pick. Both Colvin and Vrabel are on the wrong side of 30. So is AD too. Colvin is coming off a season ending injury and carries an over $7 million cap hit. We may want to replace him or do a three man rotation outside like we did in 2004 with Vrabel, McGinest, and Colvin. If we drafted Gholston, Vrabel and AD could move inside on a lot of downs.

I agree that adding an "elephant" type LB in the mold of McGinest would be nice. However, the Pats have yet to draft a LB above the 3rd round (I am including that they were going to draft Stewart Bradley). And that includes ILB and OLB.

I think that people really over-state the salary cap issue with Colvin. While Colvin's injury was "season ending," almost all injuries at that point in the season are season ending unless its of the mild sprain/strain category. Look at Seau last year when he broke his arm. Breaks are usually a 6-8 week recovery. Yet the Pats IRed him. Lets not act like Colvin's injury is career threatening.

I think that the Pats need to bring in some younger talent at LB and be willing to let players like Bruschi, Vrabel and Seau teach them. And having higher end talent there wouldn't be a bad thing.