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N.Y. Special Election

Discussion in 'Political Discussion' started by Mrs.PatsFanInVa, May 24, 2011.

  1. Mrs.PatsFanInVa

    Mrs.PatsFanInVa PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Anyone else wondering how this one's going to turn out?

    Today’s ‘Truth-Teller’ In New York: A Special Election With National Implications (The Note)
    May 24, 2011 9:02 AM

    Voters in New York’s 26th Congressional district go to the polls today to pick a new member of Congress, and their choice will say as much about who they want to represent them as it does about the national mood on Medicare and a major GOP proposal already shaping the debate in the Republican presidential primary.

    The race between Democrat Kathleen Hochul, the clerk of Erie County, Republican state legislator Jane Corwin, and long-shot candidate Jack Davis, who is running under a Tea Party mantle, has become a war over Rep. Paul Ryan’s budget and Medicare overhaul plan.


    Today
  2. Harry Boy

    Harry Boy Look Up, It's Amazing PatsFans.com Supporter

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    The Winner
    The democrat, of course.

    :bricks:
  3. DarrylS

    DarrylS PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    The seat was previously held by a "Craigslist" Republican..
  4. patsfan13

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    Mr Davis is a dem running under the Tea PArty banner to siphon votes from the pubbie.
  5. Mrs.PatsFanInVa

    Mrs.PatsFanInVa PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    In that case, it's a good thing that you and everyone knows that and no one will have to worry about him siphoning votes from the Republican candidate since the Tea Party members all know he's fake.

    I do notice that he's been endorsed by the Birtch Society - I don't know much about them, to be honest - I actually thought they were all gone - are those people who would have normally voted Republican if they didn't find a candidate they liked better?
    Last edited: May 24, 2011
  6. patsfan13

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    Teh Communist PArty USA endorsed Obama your point?
  7. Holy Diver

    Holy Diver Rookie

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    This election will show how the pendulum has swung. Even the most hard line right wing district in NY is embarrassed by the current course of the Republican party.

    And don't get it twisted, this isn't about the Craig's list fool, its about MEDICARE.

    The tea Party candidate was pulling about 23%, and has steadily been declining, now showing 13%. Almost all of the momentum has shifted from him to the democratic candidate. Kathy
    Hochul (D) started polling at 31% and today is at 42%. thats a 10% swing in both directions. It doesnt take an abacus to figure that math out. You right wingers can try and sugar coat it all you'd like, but numbers don't lie.

    New York's 26th congressional district special election, 2011 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    NOTE: Jane Corwin (R) began polling at 36%, currently...she is pulling....you guessed it...36%

    Its almost comical at this point to see the Republicans alliegance to the Ryan budget, as being gospel. Its such a bad idea, even a district that voted for Carl Paladino for governor and is stated by the NY times as "SOLID Republican", will most likely vote in a democrat today.

    New York 26th District Race Profile - Election 2010 - The New York Times

    Corwin is distancing herself from the Ryan plan, saying she is "Not Married to it". But the damage has been done. To defy the Ryan plan, is to defy the party, and to accept it is to defy the base. Whoever is running the GOP now, is driving it off a cliff, and its wonderful!

    this will be another momentum shift away from hard line right wing politics. Keep shooting yourselves in the feet...its 100% okay with me.
    Last edited: May 24, 2011
  8. Mrs.PatsFanInVa

    Mrs.PatsFanInVa PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Touche.....

    But did anyone claim it was a Republican plot designed to steal votes from another candidate?
  9. JackBauer

    JackBauer Rookie

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    Doesn't really matter who wins this race; it's more useful to look at in terms of turnout and the much ballyhooed enthusiasm gap. Republicans were much more enthusiastic in 2010 than Democrats (hence the tea party, which is really just an emotive banner for Republicans to rally behind), which played a significant role in Democrat's being slaughtered at the polls.

    If the prognosis of this race plays out as indicated, it will be a very positive sign for Democratic prospects in 2012.
  10. patsfan13

    patsfan13 Hall of Fame Poster PatsFans.com Supporter

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    No I am pointing out it is a dirty trick by the dems.
  11. Real World

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    I don't think it says much either way. By all counts it's going to be a close vote. It's a special election of a red seat in a blue state, where the former holder was a pub who resigned in embarassing fashion. I'm not sure it's going to be all that informative with respect to nation wide politics. That's just me though.
  12. Holy Diver

    Holy Diver Rookie

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    riiight....

    I'll try and search the forum on how you pointed out the "dirty tricks" the republicans did with thsi guy....but I'm guessing I'll come up empty.

    Alvin Greene - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
  13. Holy Diver

    Holy Diver Rookie

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    the poll #s shifted May 18-19, 2011

    New York's 26th congressional district special election, 2011 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    May 18th: Corwin, a state legislator who is supportive of Ryan’s agenda, defended the GOP push for entitlement reform. “The plan I am supporting is not a voucher system,” she insisted. “We have to take action now, because what my opponent is advocating for is to do nothing. If we do nothing, the plan goes bankrupt in 13 years.”

    The Battle for Western New York - By Robert Costa - The Corner - National Review Online

    The VERY NEXT DAY she goes from 31% to 17%

    While Hochul said this: “I have made a commitment that I will take to my grave,” said Hochul, the Erie County clerk. “I will fight any plan that tries to decimate Medicare.”

    and shot up 10 points....

    But by all means, believe whatever you want....This isn't rocket science.
  14. patsfan13

    patsfan13 Hall of Fame Poster PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Some info on Mr Davis who backed Obama in 2008, real ta party guy here:

    Jack Davis, Self-Proclaimed Tea Party Candidate, Backed Obama in 2008 - By Jim Geraghty - The Campaign Spot - National Review Online


  15. Holy Diver

    Holy Diver Rookie

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    hahahahahahha!

    how did he get the tea party nomination then?

    Should it really matter, when this is the same district that voted Paladino, McCain, and Palin?

    they elected the Shirtless homie for crying out loud.

    Ask yourself "What has changed with thsi 90% white district of NY since November?"

    these GOPers didn't just up and move?


    it has to be something....





    what could it be?







    (HINT: paul ryans disaterous budget)
    Last edited: May 24, 2011
  16. Real World

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    That's right, it isn't rocket science Holy. It looks like the support of the Davis guy went to the democrat, which if one of those links is accurate, is a dem to begin with. So color me underwhlemed. It really says little imo. Last I checked, NY is a very blue state. I've heard that this is a "conservative" district and all, but it's NY conservative. The polling looks tight. If one side wins by a single vote they'll be pimping their own propoganda over it, while the other spins it their way. It's a special election. To me, it really doesn't say much about the "mood" of the country with respect to national politics i.e. 2012. Maybe, and I stress maybe, it might tell people that talking about cutting medicare or medicaid isn't wise politically. Wow, now that's something we never knew before.
  17. patsfan13

    patsfan13 Hall of Fame Poster PatsFans.com Supporter

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    He collected signatures from his friends an they added a ballot spot for the "tea Party".


    Like a said an attampt to deceive the voters.
  18. DarrylS

    DarrylS PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    You can only be deceived if you allow to be deceived.. if you know this information, the voters must know this information. Unless you keep it secret.
  19. Holy Diver

    Holy Diver Rookie

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    This is THE most conservative district in the state. WTF does NY conservative mean when they vote McCain, Palin and Paladino? Do they have to vote Reagan to please you?

    This is the same consevative base that said that Scott Brown's victory in Mass was a declaration that the tea-party political view was valid, and our nation had shifted to being conservative. You can't have it both ways.


    RW, why do you keep refusing to accept the proof? This candidate praised the Ryan Budget, she immediatly lost 10 points in the polls in a SUPER conservative district. The polls were already close, because of a scandal. Those claiming the Tea Party candidate is drawing votes away from the conservative republican COULD be right, if that tea party candidate was accepted by the conservative right as a former republican, but none of you are.


    Face it. Ryans budget, and support of it is costing conservative republicans votes.


    good luck with that...these excuses are comical

    I think you and I know running on a platform that praises cuts to Medicare is political suicide....YOU and I know this....


    If WE do, how come the people currently running on the GOP ticket don't?


    I thought Michael Steele was an idiot....Reince Priebus is the guy idiots call dumb.


    http://rlv.zcache.com/reince_priebus_rnc_pr_bs_shirt-p235412458594409043qre7_400.jpg
    Last edited: May 24, 2011
  20. Mrs.PatsFanInVa

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    UPDATE:

    Heavy Turnout in New York Congressional Election

    Turnout appeared fairly strong for the special election in western New York State’s 26th Congressional district on Tuesday, officials said. But it was not immediately clear which of the candidates, if any, would benefit from the high degree of voters’ interest in the race.

    In Riga, N.Y., a small farming town in Monroe County, 200 people turned out to vote by 9:30 a.m., which polling officials said would be a larger-than-usual turnout for a general election, let alone a special contest.


    Heavy Turnout in New York Congressional Election - NYTimes.com
  21. Nikolai

    Nikolai Football Atheist PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #54 Jersey

    Something to be said for that. A "conservative district" in Texas is going to be a different kettle of fish from a "conservative district" in New York.

    I wouldn't call this a bellweather for the nation's political direction (whichever way it goes), but that's just me.
  22. Holy Diver

    Holy Diver Rookie

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    They just called the win for Democrat Kathleen Hochul.


    Only the 4th democrat in that district since the 1800s
  23. JackBauer

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    But it is a useful case study for the issues that are going to define the 2012 election.

    Unfortunately for the Republicans, they've hitched their wagon to essentially the least popular set of policy proposals short of mandatory confiscatory taxation. This does not auger well for the GOP next year; it'll be interesting to see whether Republicans in swing districts run left or go down with the sinking ship.

    Either way, I think you're seeing the early signs of a huge strategic miscalculation by the GOP. Serves them right for listening to a charlatan like Paul Ryan.
    Last edited: May 24, 2011
  24. JackBauer

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    All but four House Republicans are on record in support of the Ryan plan.

    NY-26 has a Partisan Voting Index (PVI) of R+6.

    There are current 71 Republicans representing districts of R+1 through R+6.

    There are currently 25 Republicans representing even PVI districts or D+x districts.

    Ruh ro.
  25. Nikolai

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    #54 Jersey

    I think those are mostly fair points. Unfortunately, most of the swing voters are fed up with both parties. I suspect it will be hard for either party to hold power for very long until we have some fundamental changes in the thinking in Washington.
  26. DarrylS

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    I agree, every congressional election we sweep in new people to make something new and better, but every time the influence of K St. changes their idealism and the status quo ensues. .

    In this election the Chamber of Commerce and Crossroads(Karl Rove's Group) spent millions to no avail.. Corwin herself spent $60.00 per vote of her own cash...

    I suspect for the rest of my lifetime this will continue, as Congress, despite all of its new blood is still polling in the teens.
  27. Holy Diver

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  28. The Brandon Five

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    By not addressing our financial situation they are all participating in a plan that will decimate Medicare (and everything else).
  29. Holy Diver

    Holy Diver Rookie

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    so....we deregulate, cut taxes, eliminate unions, and go to war instead?

    last time I checked, thats whats been going on for a while and our economy is screwed.




    bottom line is this....



    Running on voucher for medicre is political suicide. The republicans are holding on to the wrong side of THE most toxic issue now. Its senseless, and I love it. I wish MORE republicans would praise Ryan as a courageous patriot. Because, honestly, repubican policy is a proven failure.

    They should be banned from public service.
  30. patsfan13

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    BTW looks like the conservatives moved out and perhaps the district will go away.

    American Thinker Blog: The silver lining behind the NY 26 cloud





    Result of the 2010 census, At the link there was speculation the 16th would be a district to be eliminated. Can you say Pyrrhic victory?

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