My way too early 2016 team building thread

[BobDigital]

I am going to be rounding these totals off a bit to make it easier to read

Cap estimate 155M

Commitments 148M

Key Cuts/Restructures.

Cuts

Mayo - LB - saving 7.5M
Chandler - TE (unless he comes on really hard in the 2nd half he just didn't work out) - saving 1.5

savings of 9M brings you to 139M

Restructure/Extend

Amendola - WR - new contract is 3 years 12M - saves 3M
Chandler - DE - new contract 5 year 50M - no change for 2016
Sheard - DE - new contract 5 years 35M - saves 2M for 2016
Hightower - LB - new contract 5 years 50M - no change for 2016
Collins - LB - new contract 6 years 53M - goes from 1.2M to 5.2M in 2016 and takes a little less than he could get for the other 5 years due to the instant pay bump
Butler - CB - new deal 5 years 32M - goes from .6M to 4.6M in the first year and takes a little less than he could get for the other 4 years due to instant pay bump and show of good faith
Ryan - CB - new contract - 4 years 17M - goes from 1.8 to 2.8 in the first year (dito)

Overall 4M increase in cap brings you to 143M so if 5M are for Draft picks PS and emergency you have 7M to use on FAs

Sign FAs

Blount
Keshawn Martin
Tarell Brown
James Develin
Sealver Siliga
Marcedes Lewis

Total cap cost 5M

Offense - 24

QB - 2 - Brady Garo
TE - 2 - Gronk Lewis Williams
RB - 5 - Lewis Blount Bolden White Develin
OT - 4 - Solder Vollmer Cannon Flemming
OG/C - 5 - Stork Jackson Mason Andrews Kline
WR - 5 - Edelman Lafell Amendola Martin Dobson

Defense - 22

DT - 5 - Easley Brown Branch Siliga Jones
DE - 5 - Jones Sheard Nink Flowers Grissom
LB - 3 - Collins Hightower Freeney
CB - 4 - Butler Ryan Brown Roberts
S - 5 - McCourty Chung Richards Harmon Ebner

STs - 4 - Gost Allen Cardona Slater

Draft with an eye toward CB, LB, TE, RB, WR, OT

Under this scenario the Patriots don't have the money to sign a top flight CB but Tarell Brown proved competent enough and it locks a lot of the young good defense long term.

 

[meatface]

I don't know if Brown would in their plans considering his injury history

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[manxman2601]

I am going to be rounding these totals off a bit to make it easier to read

Cap estimate 155M

Commitments 148M

Key Cuts/Restructures.

Cuts

Mayo - LB - saving 7.5M
Chandler - TE (unless he comes on really hard in the 2nd half he just didn't work out) - saving 1.5

savings of 9M brings you to 139M

Restructure/Extend

Amendola - WR - new contract is 3 years 12M - saves 3M
Chandler - DE - new contract 5 year 50M - no change for 2016
Sheard - DE - new contract 5 years 35M - saves 2M for 2016
Hightower - LB - new contract 5 years 50M - no change for 2016
Collins - LB - new contract 6 years 53M - goes from 1.2M to 5.2M in 2016 and takes a little less than he could get for the other 5 years due to the instant pay bump
Butler - CB - new deal 5 years 32M - goes from .6M to 4.6M in the first year and takes a little less than he could get for the other 4 years due to instant pay bump and shoe of good faith
Ryan - CB - new contract - 4 years 17M - goes from 1.8 to 2.8 in the first year (dito)

Overall 4M increase in cap brings you to 143M so if 5M are for Draft picks PS and emergency you have 7M to use on FAs

Sign FAs

Blount
Keshawn Martin
Tarell Brown
James Develin
Sealver Siliga
Marcedes Lewis

Total cap cost 5M

Offense - 24

QB - 2 - Brady Garo
TE - 2 - Gronk Lewis Williams
RB - 5 - Lewis Blount Bolden White Develin
OT - 4 - Solder Vollmer Cannon Flemming
OG/C - 5 - Stork Jackson Mason Andrews Kline
WR - 5 - Edelman Lafell Amendola Martin Dobson

Defense - 22

DT - 5 - Easley Brown Branch Siliga Jones
DE - 5 - Jones Sheard Nink Flowers Grissom
LB - 3 - Collins Hightower Freeney
CB - 4 - Butler Ryan Brown Roberts
S - 5 - McCourty Chung Richards Harmon Ebner

STs - 4 - Gost Allen Cardona Slater

Draft with an eye toward CB, LB, TE, RB, WR, OT

Under this scenario the Patriots don't have the money to sign a top flight CB but Tarell Brown proved competent enough and it locks a lot of the young good defense long term.

Nice post. Do they need to extend Butler so early though? He's certainly deserving of it but it would be nice to keep him on the cheap for another season - he's a RFA after the 2017 season so I don't think theres a rush to re-sign him.

 

[BobDigital]

Nice post. Do they need to extend Butler so early though? He's certainly deserving of it but it would be nice to keep him on the cheap for another season - he's a RFA after the 2017 season so I don't think theres a rush to re-sign him.

There is no need but I rather they do. He earned that money and better to lock him up long term. If the Pats don't play games they can get him for cheaper I think. If we wait till aftr 2016 he may just think "one more year" and risk it to test the market to cash in on 10-15M more.

 

[AzorianPats]

I think Alan Branch has been great, but wouldn't you consider Hicks a better value? He's been getting better as the weeks go, and he's also much younger.

 

[patsfaninpa]

I think Alan Branch has been great, but wouldn't you consider Hicks a better value? He's been getting better as the weeks go, and he's also much younger.

I think Branch is significantly better than Hicks. I'd be fine if we just bring the top 4 back; Branch, Siliga, Brown and Easley. Draft someone in the mid-rounds for depth.

Everyone wants to extend Chandler Jones, Jamie Collins and Hightower. Me too. Hope we can afford all three. Kraft has some big signing bonus checks to write this off-season.

I want to see how Malcolm Butler and Logan Ryan finish the season before I make an off-season mock. I've been pleasantly surprised by both. Butler is playing pro-bowl caliber cornerback. Ryan hasn't been shabby either. It's a lot easier to find a slot corner than an outside one. Might finally be the season we spend some draft resources on offense; T, WR and maybe RB. I like Derby on IR at TE and Cleveland move TE prob comes back too. Making TE a position we don't really need help at.

 

[I.M. Fletcher]

I like the thought process, but I think you are conservative in just about every contract handed out. Butler and Collins especially jump out as very large bargains. I also dont forsee the 5 additional free agents being able to be re-signed for 5mill combined. If blount finishes the year well being the main back focus, he could collect that amount himself.

Outside of that, I also have serious doubts about Kraft cutting so many big dollar, long term contracts. It has just never been done here. The argument that we have never had so much top flight talent to re-sign is also true, I just cant see them signing everyone at once. A more likely situation would be to stagger the contracts over the next 3 offseason to make sure talent levels remain high, major injuries are accounted for, and other eventual contracts still have room to be taken care of.

 

[BobDigital]

I like the thought process, but I think you are conservative in just about every contract handed out. Butler and Collins especially jump out as very large bargains. I also dont forsee the 5 additional free agents being able to be re-signed for 5mill combined. If blount finishes the year well being the main back focus, he could collect that amount himself.

Outside of that, I also have serious doubts about Kraft cutting so many big dollar, long term contracts. It has just never been done here. The argument that we have never had so much top flight talent to re-sign is also true, I just cant see them signing everyone at once. A more likely situation would be to stagger the contracts over the next 3 offseason to make sure talent levels remain high, major injuries are accounted for, and other eventual contracts still have room to be taken care of.

Fair enough concerns. Let me take you though my thinking on them. First off the Hightower/Jones deals will both be extensions i think. If you want to call it 5 years 55M for each or even a bit more go ahead. The point is it will not effect 2016. The most money added by me is the money used to sign players early in exchange for pay bumps. Those all might not happen and the Patriots might wait to extend Butler/Ryan/Collins for another year and that is actually lower my 2016 projections but i don't think they should do that.

Sheard will be interesting cause he makes something like 7M next year so i have them saving money there by an restructure and extension. They could vi to give Hightower or Jones a bump in pay a year early if they want and bring that up from a hair under 8M to more like 10M but I don't know if they will. Either way I don't see their cost going up much next year if at all.. Maybe it will even go down depending on how it is structured.

As for the FAs here is my guess on contracts (rounded again)

Blount - 1.5M
Brown (if they sign him) 1.5M (cause he was injured last year he cost less thian this yrs 2M contract IMO)
Martin - 1M
Develin 1M
Siliga 1.5
Lewis 2.5

This adds up to about 7.5M but as far as cap hit is works out to about 5M in cap increase cause of minimum salaries you know you need to carry for these roster spots anyway.

I don't think Blount has the market you think he does. He is an okay RB but really hasn't done much anywhere but here where he has only been okay.

That is at least how i see it and where i am coming from. But who knows how it will work out

 

[Brady6]

Nice post. Do they need to extend Butler so early though? He's certainly deserving of it but it would be nice to keep him on the cheap for another season - he's a RFA after the 2017 season so I don't think theres a rush to re-sign him.

I don't even think they can resign Butler this offseason. I think it has to be after next.

 

[Marinlik]

I feel like we really should draft a runing back in the mid rounds next year. Blount can still be a nice RB to have to close out games against a tired defense. But it gets tiresome to see him barely get anything for 3 quarters because he's not fast enough to get out of the backfield and hit the hole

 

[meatface]

How good is this year's rb class, will the patriots be able to find a good rb in the middle rounds?

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[manxman2601]

How good is this year's rb class, will the patriots be able to find a good rb in the middle rounds?

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I haven't been madly impressed. Elliot and Henry are the stars of the class and Alex Collins and Jonathan Williams of Arkansas Are guys I like (particularly Williams who could be the best of the class but has dropped because of injury). The other guy who intrigues me is Indiana's Jordan Howard who is a big back at 6-1 and 230lbs. Devontae Booker of Utah is also a potential starting back and Keith Marshall of Georgia could be an interesting guy but his college career was wrecked by injury after an outstanding freshman year.

 

[captain stone]

We need feckin WRs who can catch the mother-feckin football, but I don't trust this dumbass FO to ever, ever get it right.

 

[I.M. Fletcher]

I haven't been madly impressed. Elliot and Henry are the stars of the class and Alex Collins and Jonathan Williams of Arkansas Are guys I like (particularly Williams who could be the best of the class but has dropped because of injury). The other guy who intrigues me is Indiana's Jordan Howard who is a big back at 6-1 and 230lbs. Devontae Booker of Utah is also a potential starting back and Keith Marshall of Georgia could be an interesting guy but his college career was wrecked by injury after an outstanding freshman year.

I still like prosise as a potential lead back. He's not huge, but he can definitely hit the hole hard.

Ferguson is my guy, but white could prove him unnecessary by seasons end.

 

[manxman2601]

I still like prosise as a potential lead back. He's not huge, but he can definitely hit the hole hard.

Ferguson is my guy, but white could prove him unnecessary by seasons end.

Yet to watch your two guys. Looking forward to it.

 

[I.M. Fletcher]

Yet to watch your two guys. Looking forward to it.

My love of ferguson is his patience. He sets up blockers like a pro. He could be deadly with a zone blocking team, like forsett last season

 

[Gabriel_p94]

Apparently Matt Miller has Derrick Henry grade as the sixth best rb in the class. I don't see it at all. But if that is the case, then I will be more than excited. If he could be had in the fourth or later I think he would be great value.

 

[BobDigital]

To me retaining is definitely the name of the game this year.

This seems like a weak FA year (as of now) and a weak draft class (as of now).

I don't think we will be seeing much in the nature of big impact players coming from either.

 

[manxman2601]

To me retaining is definitely the name of the game this year.

This seems like a weak FA year (as of now) and a weak draft class (as of now).

I don't think we will be seeing much in the nature of big impact players coming from either.

It's a good year to address offensive depth, arguably our biggest weakness.

 

[I.M. Fletcher]

It's a good year to address offensive depth, arguably our biggest weakness.

Agreed. While we are well positioned at certain areas, one or two cuts and we look like the 2013 version patriots.