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Lots written about this draft so far, but I thought I'd add a few thoughts. I'll organize this into 3 sections:
I. The Malcom Brown Pick at #32
- Its been a long time since a Pats' 1st round pick was greeted with such universal enthusiasm. Vince Wilfork in 2004 is probably the last time that I can remember. No one expected Brown to be available, and I'm sure the Pats didn't either. I strongly suspect they were in the process of trading back, expecting Indy or New Orleans to snap Brown up, and then pulled their offer off the table once he slid. BB is probably giddy, or as close to it as he gets.
- My #1 rule is to not take a player above the level where you have him rated. I think that Brown was a 1st round talent, so the Pats got good value in taking him at #32; even more so because he's a good schematic fit and fills an area of need. I would have been much less happy if they had reached to fill a positional need with a player who I didn't consider a 1st round talent (see below).
- Brown makes a ton of sense given his high floor and positional/technical versatility. He's quick enough to 1 gap and strong enough to 2 gap. He can play from the 0/1 out to the 5. Marcus Hardison is even more versatile, but a lot more raw. Grady Jarrett is slightly more explosive and disruptive, but not as versatile, and probably limited to a 1-gap scheme. Eddie Goldman is perhaps stouter as a run stuffer, but less productive and explosive, and probably limited to a 2-gap scheme. Carl Davis was inconsistent and had motor questions, Jordan Phillips was inconsistent with back questions. Even Danny Shelton was limited to a pure NT, and Leonard Williams and Arik Amstead aren't suited to play the 0/1. Hard to fault the pick.
- The pick shows how little difference there is between the top 10 and #32, especially in this draft. I had Brown rated well above Danny Shelton (#12 to Cleveland) and Arik Armstead (#17 to SF). He may not have quite as much of a ceiling as Leonard Williams, but he's probably a better fit given his ability to play the 0/1 tech. No one would have batted an eye if Brown had gone top 15-20. There were bigger reaches in the top 10, IMO (Ereck Flowers).
II. The 1st Round
- It was pretty clear that this draft lacked elite talents but was very deep, so there wasn't much of a trade up market. My guess is that the Pats would have given a discount if they had traded back to #51 with Houston. There were a lot of reaches, IMO, with teams having very different draft boards. I'll comment on a few picks below.
- I like Dante Fowler a lot, but I just don't see any traits that make him a top 3 talent. I don't think he's near the prospect that Khalil Mack was last year. I just don't see elite explosiveness. I love his overall game and versatility, but top 3?
- I feel the same way about Brandon Scherff. Fine prospect, great toughness. But top 5? I think he's a guard, and perhaps better suited to RG than LG. He's no Jonathan Cooper, IMO.
- Ereck Flowers at #9 seems like a huge reach to me. Ditto Andrus Peat at #13. La'el Collins is a better pure prospect than either, IMO. So is TJ Clemmings, though he's a bit raw.
- I was very iffy on Arik Armstead at #17, Nelson Agholor at #20, Cedric Ogbuehi at #21, Shaq Thompson at #25, and Phillip Dorsett at #29 (thank the Gods) and Stephone Anthony at #31. I think that Thompson and Anthony could have been gotten later, but there was probably a lack of trade partners. New Orleans really reached with their 2 1st round picks, IMO.
- Last year I had Greg Robinson as my #1 overall prospect, and Aaron Donald as my #1 defensive prospect. St. Louis took Robinson at #2 and Donald at #13. This year I had Todd Gurley as my top rated prospect. St. Louis took Gurley at #10. That is a very talented team.
- Cleveland has one heck of a talented OL with Joe Thomas, Alex Mack, Joel Bitonio and Cam Erving.
- I think that Landon Collins is probably about as good a prospect as Mark Barron was in 2012, or LaRon Landry in 2007. But times have changed.
- I was so happy when Detroit took Laken Tomlinson. I love the kid's smarts and character, and he seems strong and tough. But he has such slow feet. I just don't want that. He's only played RG, and his feet just don't seem what we need in a LG. We already have Cam Fleming. I just don't think Tomlinson is a 1st round talent, and I would have been upset to reach to fill a positional need. I'm not on the AJ Cann bandwagon for the same reason, and even less so with guys like Tre Jackson.
III. Day 2
- I know that people are hoping for a CB and OL, and so am I, if the values are there. But in general, I think the best approach is to not reach to fill needs. The Pats have the ammo to trade up if the right guy is available at the right price, but there's no need to come away with any single prospect at a prohibitive cost.
- Guys I like the most in the 2nd round are Eric Rowe, TJ Clemmings, and Ali Marpet. I also wouldn't be unhappy with Tevin Coleman, Jalen Collins, Jake Fisher, Benardrick McKinney or Danielle Hunter.
- Guys I like the most in the 3rd round are Marcus Hardison, David Johnson, Josh Shaw and Quentin Rollins.
- If the Pats don't trade up in the 2nd round I'd consider trading up for Randy Gregory if he slips to the early 3rd round, though I doubt that will happen.
- La'el Collins is the wild card of this draft. It will be fascinating to see if/when someone pulls the trigger (though perhaps that's an unfortunate term given the circumstances). He's a top 15-20 prospect, and the idea of the Pats getting both Brown and Collins in the same draft would have been beyond anyone's wildest dreams a week or two ago. The Pats could potentially trade up for a CB like Eric Rowe in the 2nd round and add Collins later on, and come away with 3 really, really good players.
- As Patchick notes, a deep draft where there's absolutely no consensus on player rankings and evaluation over a 50+ pick range is really a lot of fun, and tailor made for Bill Belichick.
I. The Malcom Brown Pick at #32
- Its been a long time since a Pats' 1st round pick was greeted with such universal enthusiasm. Vince Wilfork in 2004 is probably the last time that I can remember. No one expected Brown to be available, and I'm sure the Pats didn't either. I strongly suspect they were in the process of trading back, expecting Indy or New Orleans to snap Brown up, and then pulled their offer off the table once he slid. BB is probably giddy, or as close to it as he gets.
- My #1 rule is to not take a player above the level where you have him rated. I think that Brown was a 1st round talent, so the Pats got good value in taking him at #32; even more so because he's a good schematic fit and fills an area of need. I would have been much less happy if they had reached to fill a positional need with a player who I didn't consider a 1st round talent (see below).
- Brown makes a ton of sense given his high floor and positional/technical versatility. He's quick enough to 1 gap and strong enough to 2 gap. He can play from the 0/1 out to the 5. Marcus Hardison is even more versatile, but a lot more raw. Grady Jarrett is slightly more explosive and disruptive, but not as versatile, and probably limited to a 1-gap scheme. Eddie Goldman is perhaps stouter as a run stuffer, but less productive and explosive, and probably limited to a 2-gap scheme. Carl Davis was inconsistent and had motor questions, Jordan Phillips was inconsistent with back questions. Even Danny Shelton was limited to a pure NT, and Leonard Williams and Arik Amstead aren't suited to play the 0/1. Hard to fault the pick.
- The pick shows how little difference there is between the top 10 and #32, especially in this draft. I had Brown rated well above Danny Shelton (#12 to Cleveland) and Arik Armstead (#17 to SF). He may not have quite as much of a ceiling as Leonard Williams, but he's probably a better fit given his ability to play the 0/1 tech. No one would have batted an eye if Brown had gone top 15-20. There were bigger reaches in the top 10, IMO (Ereck Flowers).
II. The 1st Round
- It was pretty clear that this draft lacked elite talents but was very deep, so there wasn't much of a trade up market. My guess is that the Pats would have given a discount if they had traded back to #51 with Houston. There were a lot of reaches, IMO, with teams having very different draft boards. I'll comment on a few picks below.
- I like Dante Fowler a lot, but I just don't see any traits that make him a top 3 talent. I don't think he's near the prospect that Khalil Mack was last year. I just don't see elite explosiveness. I love his overall game and versatility, but top 3?
- I feel the same way about Brandon Scherff. Fine prospect, great toughness. But top 5? I think he's a guard, and perhaps better suited to RG than LG. He's no Jonathan Cooper, IMO.
- Ereck Flowers at #9 seems like a huge reach to me. Ditto Andrus Peat at #13. La'el Collins is a better pure prospect than either, IMO. So is TJ Clemmings, though he's a bit raw.
- I was very iffy on Arik Armstead at #17, Nelson Agholor at #20, Cedric Ogbuehi at #21, Shaq Thompson at #25, and Phillip Dorsett at #29 (thank the Gods) and Stephone Anthony at #31. I think that Thompson and Anthony could have been gotten later, but there was probably a lack of trade partners. New Orleans really reached with their 2 1st round picks, IMO.
- Last year I had Greg Robinson as my #1 overall prospect, and Aaron Donald as my #1 defensive prospect. St. Louis took Robinson at #2 and Donald at #13. This year I had Todd Gurley as my top rated prospect. St. Louis took Gurley at #10. That is a very talented team.
- Cleveland has one heck of a talented OL with Joe Thomas, Alex Mack, Joel Bitonio and Cam Erving.
- I think that Landon Collins is probably about as good a prospect as Mark Barron was in 2012, or LaRon Landry in 2007. But times have changed.
- I was so happy when Detroit took Laken Tomlinson. I love the kid's smarts and character, and he seems strong and tough. But he has such slow feet. I just don't want that. He's only played RG, and his feet just don't seem what we need in a LG. We already have Cam Fleming. I just don't think Tomlinson is a 1st round talent, and I would have been upset to reach to fill a positional need. I'm not on the AJ Cann bandwagon for the same reason, and even less so with guys like Tre Jackson.
III. Day 2
- I know that people are hoping for a CB and OL, and so am I, if the values are there. But in general, I think the best approach is to not reach to fill needs. The Pats have the ammo to trade up if the right guy is available at the right price, but there's no need to come away with any single prospect at a prohibitive cost.
- Guys I like the most in the 2nd round are Eric Rowe, TJ Clemmings, and Ali Marpet. I also wouldn't be unhappy with Tevin Coleman, Jalen Collins, Jake Fisher, Benardrick McKinney or Danielle Hunter.
- Guys I like the most in the 3rd round are Marcus Hardison, David Johnson, Josh Shaw and Quentin Rollins.
- If the Pats don't trade up in the 2nd round I'd consider trading up for Randy Gregory if he slips to the early 3rd round, though I doubt that will happen.
- La'el Collins is the wild card of this draft. It will be fascinating to see if/when someone pulls the trigger (though perhaps that's an unfortunate term given the circumstances). He's a top 15-20 prospect, and the idea of the Pats getting both Brown and Collins in the same draft would have been beyond anyone's wildest dreams a week or two ago. The Pats could potentially trade up for a CB like Eric Rowe in the 2nd round and add Collins later on, and come away with 3 really, really good players.
- As Patchick notes, a deep draft where there's absolutely no consensus on player rankings and evaluation over a 50+ pick range is really a lot of fun, and tailor made for Bill Belichick.
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