My take on what will happen

[Miguel]

By all media accounts, the Pats are under the cap by around $18 to 20 million. The Pats are going to use that cap space. Why??Because it is the right thing to do.

How???

1.) They are going to extend Seymour. His deal will be the largest ever for a non-QB.
2.) They are going to extend Branch with a 5 year $27 million deal.
3.) They are going to move some of the money due Colvin in 2007/2008 to the 2006 season.
4.) They are going to sign several middle-tier free agents. One of them is going to get a front-loaded deal atypical for the Patriots.
5.) If Koppen rebounds from his injury and plays well, he, too, will be extended.
6.) They are going to give Tedy a raise.

If this does not happen, forget this post. If this happens, do not worry about remembering this because I will remind you of it

Miguel (who predicted that Adam would go to the Colts and who predicted that Givens would go to the Browns)

 

[flutie2phelan]

....
If this does not happen, forget this post. If this happens, do not worry about remembering this because I will remind you of it

Miguel (who predicted that Adam would go to the Colts and who predicted that Givens would go to the Browns)

I forgot that ... but i believe you.
Respectfully, ..........

 

[AzPatsFan]

Miquel,
I respect your instincts and foresight.

 

[scout]

Sounds like your a BB little me.

 

[Pats726]

Miguel...it all makes sense to me..extending all of those players...and moving money around..how many middle tiered players?? can fit in?? 4-5 as well as some lesser ones?? Will they have money for une and such when some vets may be dropped?? Great post though..I think we all must look at what this team needs to do.

 

[Miguel]

I forgot that ... but i believe you.

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/showthread.php?t=31966

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/showthread.php?t=31965

I did not even list Tennessee as an option for Givens.

 

[PATSNUTme]

Miguel

Have you considered legally changing your name to Nostradamus?

 

[Ring 6]

Miguel,
What it sounds like you are saying is that the Patriots will use that 20mill not only to impact 2006, but the future as well.

It would seem to make sense to me that the Pat organization would take unexpected extra cap room, and figure out a way to use it to ensure long term success over the headlining signing.

 

[DocAdkinsDiet]

That sounds like the best prediction I've heard. I am expecting the contract extensions and I am sure the FO must be planning on the aforementioned "middle tier" FA's. They have made such aquisitions work before and I would expect nothing less.

 

[spacecrime]

This is the first offseason post that has made sense. Nice analysis and now that I read it, it sounds so much like the Patriots mode of operation that I cannot believe I didn't think of it myself!

 

[marty]

Miguel, from your message to BB/Pioli's ears!
On your, not so subtle other point, go ahead, keep rubbing it in!!!!! We'll know who to call for the next big MegaMillions!!!! LOL!

 

[jct]

By all media accounts, the Pats are under the cap by around $18 to 20 million. The Pats are going to use that cap space. Why??Because it is the right thing to do.

How???

1.) They are going to extend Seymour. His deal will be the largest ever for a non-QB.
2.) They are going to extend Branch with a 5 year $27 million deal.
3.) They are going to move some of the money due Colvin in 2007/2008 to the 2006 season.
4.) They are going to sign several middle-tier free agents. One of them is going to get a front-loaded deal atypical for the Patriots.
5.) If Koppen rebounds from his injury and plays well, he, too, will be extended.
6.) They are going to give Tedy a raise.

If this does not happen, forget this post. If this happens, do not worry about remembering this because I will remind you of it

Miguel (who predicted that Adam would go to the Colts and who predicted that Givens would go to the Browns)

Ok sounds like a good plan/prophesy but how many help us win this year's SB.
1 and 2 help but paying the most for seymour shouldn't be a goal.
3 doesn't help win this years SB
4 helps but needs to be a few more than several.
5 and 6 helps longterm but not this year.
Basically what you are saying is long range strategy rather than focusing on winning this year.
Another way to look at it is slaughter of our FAs so a few guys get raises.

 

[Tunescribe]

While you're at it, who are the mid-tier free agents you're thinking of?

 

[Feep_FLA]

Miguel IS on the Patriots payroll and his real name IS Nostradamus..... IMHO.. :rocker: :rocker: :rocker: :rocker:

 

[Miguel]

Ok sounds like a good plan/prophesy but how many help us win this year's SB.

1 and 2 help but paying the most for seymour shouldn't be a goal.

Did not say that it was a goal.

4 helps but needs to be a few more than several.

There are not that many middle-tier free agents out there

5 and 6 helps longterm but not this year.
Basically what you are saying is long range strategy rather than focusing on winning this year.

That's your take. I believe that the Pats' #1 goal will always be to win the Super Bowl. I happen to believe that the Pats will make the moves that they believe necessary to make a SB victory happen. This list is my prediction for the moves. There is simply no reason for the Pats NOT to focus on winning the Super Bowl this year.

 

[Miguel]

While you're at it, who are the mid-tier free agents you're thinking of?

Sam Cowart
Ben Taylor
Nick Greisen
DaShon Polk
Marcus Coleman
Mike Pearson

but I suspect that the Pats will sign players that I have never heard of.

 

[jct]

That's your take. I believe that the Pats' #1 goal will always be to win the Super Bowl. I happen to believe that the Pats will make the moves that they believe necessary to make a SB victory happen. This list is my prediction for the moves. There is simply no reason for the Pats NOT to focus on winning the Super Bowl this year.

Miguel I have enormous respect for your efforts and have been a fan of yours for years.
I was not being contrary, simply pointing to the long term implications rather than short term results which your projection indicates.
There could be many possible moves for the team to consider : Mathis,Moulds,Johnson,Patten,Walker

 

[tailgater]

Sadly, my belief is that Seymour will not re-sign with the Pats, preferring to hit the open market, regardelss of whatever offer the Pats may give him, even if that means he'll be tagged in '07 & '08 (when he'll be tagged and traded)

i think Branch could re-sign, simple because of his fragility and his size. By next year, many teams will not have the excessive cap space that they enjoy today.

 

[chris_in_sunnyvale]

There is simply no reason for the Pats NOT to focus on winning the Super Bowl this year.

As long as Tom Brady is under center, winning the SB MUST be their goal every year. Can't waste a talent like him for the sake of 'rebuilding', especially while he's in his prime.

Regards,
Chris

 

[PatsFanInVa]

Sounds Good

Miguel, I may or may not have posted anything to this same effect, but I've been thinking (swear to God,) that the Pats' lack of action was related to the value, value, value approach. As in - what does the disciplined organization do when it believes the prices on the table exceed the players' value to the team? Fahgedaboutit.

That's not to say these guys aren't worth it, for another model. Receivers especially seem to pull down the tall cakes when they hit elite or even good status. I loved Givens, but did I read his contract gives him 5 mil a year? If so, think about that - that number would put him up in the top 5 on the Pats. And he's a number 2 receiver.

What would you predict is the response of the consumate businessman, when the big name free agents are on the market, there's a semiunexpected cap windfall, and teams are spending like there's no tomorrow? Gee that sounds like high demand and limited supply to me. Is that a time to buy?

So, yeah - do the deals you know you have to do, do what you can with the mid-tier guys, use today's money for tomorrow's needs, if today's needs can't be addressed without succumbing to a frenzied environment.

One more prediction to add to yours - LaVar Arrington does not belong in New England, in my opinion. He's a pouter and a whiner. I know from being in the Washington area for so long. That said, who was that guy that threw his gear to the fans in Cincinatti on his last game...

Last note and I'll shut up. You ever notice that you can have a perfectly good house on the market (in most times) for months, and not get close to the asking price, especially if there are slightly newer or slightly bigger versions nearby? Ever see someone who's had it on the market for months, agonizing about dropping the price? You've got to figure the Pats wait for the first rush of signings to be over every year, because as you get closer to camp, the market resembles a "buyer's market" more and more. Since they're already more interested in getting a "Pats Fit" than a superstar, that dovetails well with the overall approach.

Thanks for your cap page, thanks for your (as always) informed spin, and if I weren't freakin house-poor I'd hit your sister's page immediately with a donation. (I gotta get Paoli to be my realtor next time.)

PFnV