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My SB Prediction in detail

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by AndyJohnson, Feb 2, 2008.

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  1. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

    Sep 13, 2004
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    I've already predicted the score 48-13. Now for detail, analysis, and whatever bs comes to mind.

    Pats score 6 TDs, and 2 FGs.
    I have seen no team come close to stopping our offense in good passing weather conditions, and the Giants couldnt stop it in no so good conditions. The Giant secondary is average compared to all we faced this year. Their pass rush is getting a lot of ink, but frankly, our OL is just a lot better pass blocking than they are pass rushing. I would expect throughout the game they will win an individual battle or 2 and we wont be sack free, but our OL will dominate the pass block/pass rush battle.
    I dont care whether we run them in or throw them in so I wont guess at who scores the TDs, but I have a feeling we will run more inside the 10 than we have, simply because we will break tendencies. Of the 6 TDs I expect 2 to be scored or set up by the Defense. I'll say 1 defensive TD, and another set up by the D turning it over and the o starting inside the 30.

    Defense plays very well, but maybe not statistically great.
    I think our game plan will have an early focus on stopping the run. I have yet to see, all year, our defense playing to stop the run and not do so. Statistically, we are good in rush yards allowed, not so good in yards per carry, but the vast majority of the skew in ypc is teams running when we are in a pass defending mode, particualrly when we are far ahead and prefer that they run the ball, because they cannot get back in the game by running. I expect to see more of that tomorrow. We will stifle the run early, then as we get a comfortable lead the Giants will want to keep using the run to keep heat off of Manning (it wont work because we wont care about the run) and they will end up with some decent, yet meaningless rushing stats.
    I expect Manning to make some plays in the passing game in 2 aspects. First, early on he will have some throws available to him, IF he can make them, because we will be concerned with the run, and secondly because we will be ahead and givinghim short stuff. As the game wears on, he will either build some decent meaningless stats by dumping off in front of our conservative coverage or will be hit, sacked, and throw Ints often if he tries to throw the ball down the field. Everything Ive seen of Ellie tells me that when we get ahead, he will try to throw the ball down the field into the teeth of our coverage and the results will be awful for him.
    In a nutshell:
    I do not believe the Giants can run against our D if we are playing to stop the run.
    I do believe they can run against our D if we are playing to stop the pass.
    I do not believe they can throw against our D if we are playing to stop the pass.
    I do beleive they can throw against our D if we are playing to stop the run.

    I see our defensive game plan (coupled with what our O will do) as sucking the Giants in to what we want them to do, and creating a lot of negative plays, with it getting worse throughout the game, up until they decide to just take what they can get after the game is out of hand.

    I expect the Giants to put together one very nice first half drive. I think it will stall in the red zone, though. I expect us to drive effectively on just about every first half possession. When we are on offense, I do not think the Giants can stop us, and we will only be stopped by a poor play (i.e. dropped pass on 3rd down, missed block on 3rd down resulting in a sack/pressure or loss on a run). I dont see much of that happening, but we wont be perfect.

    Haltime score 28-3.

    I expect that as we get an early lead, we push the envelope. I see us, at 21-3 going on a 1-2:00 drive to score before halftime. I think that there will be no point in the game where any Pats fan willbe concerned about the outcome.

    In short form: An old fashioned:*****-whooping. For a very simple reason. We are a much, much better football team.

    I will take a stab at some stats.

    Brady 33-39-365-0 ints (wont pick TDs but the O will score 5--and the D 1--, and I simply dont care whether they are passes or runs)
    Maroney (hardest prediction of all, because it is so hard to guess at how he will be used) 17-89, 2 catches 31 yards
    Faulk 6-23, 5-36
    Moss 8-102
    Welker 8-76
    Stallworth 3-51
    Gaffney 3-25
    Watson 4-44

    Manning 19-44-185-3 Ints, sacked 5 times
    Jacobs 15-68
    bradshaw 8-44 (one long run in garbage time)
    Burress 3-42
    Toomer 5-60
    Everyone else 11-83

    Picks and sacks by Pats:
    Ints: Harrison, Samuel, Bruschi
    Sacks: Thomas, Seymour, Vrabel 2, Warren

    Finally, if the game ends up 3-0 and Brady is 1-40, or the game ends up 50-49 and Manning throws for 600 yards, I DO NOT CARE. I ONLY CARE THAT WE WIN, MAKE HISTORY, AND THESE PREDICTIONS ARE FOR NOTHING BUT FUN.
  2. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

    Sep 13, 2004
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    #24 Jersey

    BUMP - actual football talk :)

    I agree with most, the only exception being in the Baltimore game there were a few notable times we tried to stop the run and couldn't. Admittedly in the 4th quarter when we really had to we did. Also that game was the first after Colvin got hurt and we had to re-allign the LB so there was some legimate excuse for what was at times, weak run defense.
  3. psychoPat

    psychoPat Role Player PatsFans.com Supporter

    Oct 12, 2006
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    +1 / 0 / -0

    Although detailed predictions are little more than entertaining excursions into fantasy ...
    i find the above lines to be among the
    clearest and most compelling strategic-level analyses
    that have yet appeared here.
  4. vyrago

    vyrago 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

    Aug 24, 2006
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    +19 / 2 / -1

    Here's the one prediction I really hope you are right about, Andy. I want to enjoy the game, my company, the food, the whole beautiful experience without feeling I might need a defibrilator before it's over. I know they will win, but I'd like them to win comfortably with a big early lead.
  5. thenepatsrule

    thenepatsrule In the Starting Line-Up

    Sep 14, 2007
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    +312 / 2 / -1

    #12 Jersey

    good thread and very good analysis...........:rocker:
  6. Patstopia

    Patstopia Third String But Playing on Special Teams

    Dec 21, 2006
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    +56 / 0 / -0

    From your lips to God's ear!
  7. stcjones

    stcjones Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

    Sep 13, 2004
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    +126 / 44 / -25

    #12 Jersey

    Andy....I have to say first and foremost, that your predictions have been pretty darned accurate in the past (as far as I can recall). However, that having been said, I think that you are not giving the Gints offense much credit here........in all seriousness, Burress 3-42? Manning 3 picks? (while I do see some turnovers by Manning in this game.....not so sure there will be that many considering how Coughlin has made Manning's passing game more conservative and decreased margin of error........Jacobs and Bradshaw are the wild cards here.......I expect more production from them than you predict......I also don't see Toomer getting more rec/yds than Burress unless Burress is really injured....which I don't see......

    Again Andy....I hope that you are right as always......and I hope like someone else said to not take more years off my heart in this game......I would love to see a blowout of epic proportions.....I would love to be able to focus on my company, some good food and drink, and not be a drunk, raving lunatic, pacing the carpet and frothing at the mouth!!!....But I do see this game being a bit closer for quite awhile....and then the Pats putting the icing on the cake late.....(believe I predicted 38-20........)

    Hope you are psychic Andy.....like the way you think!!!!

    GO PATS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


    Dec 4, 2006
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    #12 Jersey

    This post requires 5 letters to respond to and is simply..........

    H-O-M-E-R ;) :singing:
    Last edited: Feb 2, 2008
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