My projections for the 2009 draft

[ctpatsfan77]

First off, I'm not going to predict specific players, because I'm bad at it, and IBBIT.

That said, I do think there are certain things that are very likely to happen, based on historical tendencies:

1. I expect the Patriots will draft a total of FOUR players in the first three rounds. My main reason for saying this is that, historically, EVERY player drafted in the first four rounds makes the roster, AND at least one UDFA makes the opening day roster as well.

2. I expect the Patriots to trade ONE of the three seconds—most likely #34, since that will get them an extra first—into the 2010 draft.

3. I expect the Patriots will use either #58 or #89 to trade up. According to the value chart, #47 + #89 = #33, so they could easily trade away #34 and still draft a player in the #30s.

4. I also expect the Patriots to use at least one of their three remaining "late" picks (their 4, their 6, or their 7) in trades. In all, I expect the Patriots will draft 8-9 players total.

5. I expect the Patriots to draft at least one LB in the first three rounds, and at least one player who can play S.

6. I expect that somewhere on day two, most likely in rounds four or five, they will take a QB to challenge Gutierrez.

7. I do NOT expect them to draft a punter, but I do expect them to sign one as a UDFA to push Hanson. I do NOT expect that UDFA to replace Hanson.

8. I expect the Patriots will draft at least one "slash" type player (WR/QB, CB/S, RB/WR, etc.)

9. I do NOT expect they will trade DOWN in the draft unless they can find a way to push the picks they accumulate into 2010. Drafting a ton of players this year, again, makes little sense.

10. I expect that, all of the above said, I will still, nevertheless, say "WTF?" at least once next weekend.

 

[BradyManny]

First off, I'm not going to predict specific players, because I'm bad at it, and IBBIT.

That said, I do think there are certain things that are very likely to happen, based on historical tendencies:

1. I expect the Patriots will draft a total of FOUR players in the first three rounds. My main reason for saying this is that, historically, EVERY player drafted in the first four rounds makes the roster, AND at least one UDFA makes the opening day roster as well.

Yup, I can see the logic behind this, roster spots are going to be tight.

2. I expect the Patriots to trade ONE of the three seconds—most likely #34, since that will get them an extra first—into the 2010 draft.

Again, agree completely.

3. I expect the Patriots will use either #58 or #89 to trade up. According to the value chart, #47 + #89 = #33, so they could easily trade away #34 and still draft a player in the #30s.

Not sure I agree with this one - I see a lot of value in the #89 area. I have more players on my board in the 4th and 5th rounds than in perhaps any other area of the draft, even that 20-60 range, which is pretty stacked as well.

4. I also expect the Patriots to use at least one of their three remaining "late" picks (their 4, their 6, or their 7) in trades. In all, I expect the Patriots will draft 8-9 players total.

Agreed.

5. I expect the Patriots to draft at least one LB in the first three rounds, and at least one player who can play S.

Also agreed.

6. I expect that somewhere on day two, most likely in rounds four or five, they will take a QB to challenge Gutierrez.

Again, agreed.

7. I do NOT expect them to draft a punter, but I do expect them to sign one as a UDFA to push Hanson. I do NOT expect that UDFA to replace Hanson.

I wouldn't be surprised to see them use a [comp] 5th, 6th or 7th on a punter.

8. I expect the Patriots will draft at least one "slash" type player (WR/QB, CB/S, RB/WR, etc.)

Wouldn't shock me either.

9. I do NOT expect they will trade DOWN in the draft unless they can find a way to push the picks they accumulate into 2010. Drafting a ton of players this year, again, makes little sense.

I can see trading down from #23, if it means grabbing a pick 2010.

10. I expect that, all of the above said, I will still, nevertheless, say "WTF?" at least once next weekend.

my thoughts in bold above ^^^

 

[DarrylS]

I suspect I will say WTF at least three times.. and after I step back from the edge and look at what happened closely it will then make sense. Other than that there is not much else I can predict.. except that at least 2 of the first three picks will be defensive players.

 

[Irish Hooligan]

Well done. I think your line of thinking is really accurate. I generally say wtf, about 3-5 times with the Pats and 4,875 times with the league and analists. The Pats always end up making sense and as you say IBBWT but the league has to make BB laugh out loud like a minimum of 30 times during the draft.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

This follows very closely my own thoughts on draft management in 09, and other boards agree. A thousand Pats fans can't all be wrong, can we?

Knowing BB, it's not going to be even remotely like this, but will work out in the end anyway. Ahhh, football can't get here quickly enough!

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Not sure I agree with this one - I see a lot of value in the #89 area. I have more players on my board in the 4th and 5th rounds than in perhaps any other area of the draft, even that 20-60 range, which is pretty stacked as well.

That's true, but the Pats also have the untradable #97.

 

[Wheelssps]

I agree with most of the sentiments expressed in this thread already, and also heartily agree on the number of WTF's?.

I've been trying to get a gauge on the number of draft picks that we might trade into 2010, and here are my thoughts thus far:

This draft is quite deep, so it makes sense to stay in this draft.
We don't have many roster spots available, so it makes sense to move picks to next year.
We have some expiring contracts, and since it generally takes players a year or two to be comfortable contributors in BB's schemes, it makes sense to draft future replacements this year.
BB LOVES to have flexibility on draft day, so that makes sense to move picks to next year to give him these same options next year.

The above contradictions left me totally confused, so I just decided to think about what BB would envision as an ideal draft situation for next year in addition to the standard picks.
I'm guessing an extra 1st, 2nd, and 4th or 5th.

So, I'll guess #47 and a low rounder makes a 2010 1st, #89 makes a 2010 2nd, and then another low round pick or some combination makes another 4th or 5th next year. That would leave us with a good number of picks this year in a variety or rounds while still keeping 3 of our 4 top picks (23, 34, 58) and would set us up well for next year. Given the depth of this year's draft, I suspect that we might be able to find trading partners for the above scenarios. Let the draft picks earn interest for another year if you will.

Of course what BB will actually do will be brilliant in retrospect and dumbfounding in the moment.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

10. I expect that, all of the above said, I will still, nevertheless, say "WTF?" at least once next weekend.

I agree 100%. Kneejerk reactions, while dramatic in the moment, don't usually stand up to the test of time with a BB draft.

 

[BradyManny]

That's true, but the Pats also have the untradable #97.

Hmm, very good point.

 

[AzPatsFan]

I agree with most of the sentiments expressed in this thread already, and also heartily agree on the number of WTF's?.

I've been trying to get a gauge on the number of draft picks that we might trade into 2010, and here are my thoughts thus far:

This draft is quite deep, so it makes sense to stay in this draft.
We don't have many roster spots available, so it makes sense to move picks to next year.
We have some expiring contracts, and since it generally takes players a year or two to be comfortable contributors in BB's schemes, it makes sense to draft future replacements this year.
BB LOVES to have flexibility on draft day, so that makes sense to move picks to next year to give him these same options next year.

The above contradictions left me totally confused, so I just decided to think about what BB would envision as an ideal draft situation for next year in addition to the standard picks.
I'm guessing an extra 1st, 2nd, and 4th or 5th.

So, I'll guess #47 and a low rounder makes a 2010 1st, #89 makes a 2010 2nd, and then another low round pick or some combination makes another 4th or 5th next year. That would leave us with a good number of picks this year in a variety or rounds while still keeping 3 of our 4 top picks (23, 34, 58) and would set us up well for next year. Given the depth of this year's draft, I suspect that we might be able to find trading partners for the above scenarios. Let the draft picks earn interest for another year if you will.

Of course what BB will actually do will be brilliant in retrospect and dumbfounding in the moment.

BB alreready has a couple 4-5-or 6 extra now in 2010. That is comp for SnowAngel and Jabbar Gafney. Thank Josh for the future gifts. I think the Eagles will give a us 7th rounder in the WR receiver trade. I thought it was for next year.

In a draft estimated to have about 40 first rounders this year, use the picks and then move up the late second to get another one.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

BB alreready has a couple 4-5-or 6 extra now in 2010. That is comp for SnowAngel and Jabbar Gafney. Thank Josh for the future gifts. I think the Eagles will give a us 7th rounder in the WR receiver trade. I thought it was for next year.

In a draft estimated to have about 40 first rounders this year, use the picks and then move up the late second to get another one.

For the moment the three potential comp picks aren't likely to be much more than 7ths. Philly returned at least a 2010 7th, if Lewis falls flat he might bring back a 6th. I'd feel better if BB can manage to roll at least a 3rd forward too - preferably a 2nd.

 

[DocE]

QUOTE=ctpatsfan77;1347430]First off, I'm not going to predict specific players, because I'm bad at it, and IBBIT.

That said, I do think there are certain things that are very likely to happen, based on historical tendencies:

1. I expect the Patriots will draft a total of FOUR players in the first three rounds. My main reason for saying this is that, historically, EVERY player drafted in the first four rounds makes the roster, AND at least one UDFA makes the opening day roster as well.

I'd set the over under at 4 1/2. So I am right with you there. UDFA will have a tougher time making the team this year unless it's at a position like FB, P, or special teams ace ala Izzo.

2. I expect the Patriots to trade ONE of the three seconds—most likely #34, since that will get them an extra first—into the 2010 draft.

I think they will try to do this, but may have difficulty finding a partner. Trading no.34 for a 2010 first rounder is tricky, because you certainly want to be trading with team that won't make the playoffs. Trading no.34 in one draft for pick 25 in the next would not represent good value.

3. I expect the Patriots will use either #58 or #89 to trade up. According to the value chart, #47 + #89 = #33, so they could easily trade away #34 and still draft a player in the #30s.

No argument here, though keep an eye on 58 for a trade down or out to 2010, not up.

4. I also expect the Patriots to use at least one of their three remaining "late" picks (their 4, their 6, or their 7) in trades. In all, I expect the Patriots will draft 8-9 players total.

Agreed

5. I expect the Patriots to draft at least one LB in the first three rounds, and at least one player who can play S.

I think this is about as safe a prediction as you can make, I'd be very surprised if you are not right.
6. I expect that somewhere on day two, most likely in rounds four or five, they will take a QB to challenge Gutierrez.

Wouldn't shock me, but it's a bad year for QB's, I hope it's not before round 5. Maybe Hoyer or Boltus in round 5 or 6.

7. I do NOT expect them to draft a punter, but I do expect them to sign one as a UDFA to push Hanson. I do NOT expect that UDFA to replace Hanson.

I haven't studied the P's, but if they have checked out both the kid from Cincy and the kid from SMU and I think both are projected to be drafted. I have a hard time seeing BB going with a rookie P with the difficult conditions in Foxboro come playoff time.

8. I expect the Patriots will draft at least one "slash" type player (WR/QB, CB/S, RB/WR, etc.)

I think they are strongly considering a slash type guy for the wildcat and/or a RB/WR who could return kicks and punts and keep Hobbs and Welker rested.

9. I do NOT expect they will trade DOWN in the draft unless they can find a way to push the picks they accumulate into 2010. Drafting a ton of players this year, again, makes little sense.
I see trading down as possible both in round 1 and late in round 2. In round 1, I see a very real possibility that the draft board will not provide any value for the Patriots at no.23. If they don't trade up for someone, I could see them trading down pretty easily. At 58, those last few 2nd rounders get quite valuable as teams see guys they had as late first or early 2nd rounders still on the board. Sometimes you can get huge value trading an end of the round pick, especially when it's the last round of the day (it used to be the 3rd, now it's the 2nd).

10. I expect that, all of the above said, I will still, nevertheless, say "WTF?" at least once next weekend.[/QUOTE]

I'd be thrilled if I only say it once, and overjoyed if that one time is not in round 1.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

9. I do NOT expect they will trade DOWN in the draft unless they can find a way to push the picks they accumulate into 2010. Drafting a ton of players this year, again, makes little sense.
I see trading down as possible both in round 1 and late in round 2. In round 1, I see a very real possibility that the draft board will not provide any value for the Patriots at no.23. If they don't trade up for someone, I could see them trading down pretty easily. At 58, those last few 2nd rounders get quite valuable as teams see guys they had as late first or early 2nd rounders still on the board. Sometimes you can get huge value trading an end of the round pick, especially when it's the last round of the day (it used to be the 3rd, now it's the 2nd).

I honestly doubt it; I do think there'll be enough players the Patriots like there that they can find someone to draft, but, of course, if someone makes an offer they can't refuse (e.g., DET offering #33 and next year's one for #23 and #58), they'll make the trade.

 

[mgteich]

All the following players can easily be upgraded with those above the line in the first four rounds, and the bottom two in the last three. More draftees will make the team this year because this is a great draft between 20 and 125, and we have seven picks in that range.

RB BJGE
OLB Redd
DE Smith
SS Williams
FS Spann
OG Yates
ILB Ruud
OT O'Callaghan
--------------
QB Gutierrez
P Hanson
====================================================

First off, I'm not going to predict specific players, because I'm bad at it, and IBBIT.
1. I expect the Patriots will draft a total of FOUR players in the first three rounds. My main reason for saying this is that, historically, EVERY player drafted in the first four rounds makes the roster, AND at least one UDFA makes the opening day roster as well.

 

[Wheelssps]

I honestly doubt it; I do think there'll be enough players the Patriots like there that they can find someone to draft, but, of course, if someone makes an offer they can't refuse (e.g., DET offering #33 and next year's one for #23 and #58), they'll make the trade.

Exactly. That was my line of thinking when I mentioned that #47 might go to next year, etc. There might be a very good player there that the Pats want, but he might be around at #58, too. If someone offers the chance to turn #47 this year into the chance to be around a #15 next year, that's great value no matter the strength of one draft over another. Of course if they could turn #58 plus a low rounder into something similar......

I just see BB rolling more picks (and higher picks)into next year than most mocks (this board and elsewhere) take into account. I definitely advocate to maximize the opportunity of this deep draft, but I also bet that will prompt other teams to offer some pretty sweet deals to the Pats for some of their picks, too.