My opinion: Welker is now closer to mediocrity than stardom

[Brady6]

Re: Re: My opinion: Welker is now closer to mediocrity than stardom

Interesting stat from Mike Reiss:



https://twitter.com/MikeReiss/status/380136703945502720

Apparently, the Broncos are trying to phase him out of their offense.

I think those snaps he missed have more to do with them blowing out their opponent and Welker getting rest in the 4th.

 

[patsfan-1982]

he would have 30 rec if he was still a pat. he's the #4 opt there right now and with them like the packers there is a new receiving star each week he could have 9 rec for 150 yards next week

 

[ausbacker]

I think those snaps he missed have more to do with them blowing out their opponent and Welker getting rest in the 4th.

It's funny reading smart arse replies on Twitter to have Reiss quickly shut them down (professionally of course) quickly.

Ah, I love da internetz.

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

WW was and is a highly effective WR. I just don't know how anyone can come to an alternate conclusion.
Is WW a big yards threat? No. That's not his strength. His strength is finding gaps in the underneath. He still does that very well (at least what I've seen so far).
Will he have big YPC? No, again that's not his strength.
Is he on the downside of his career peak? Probably. His is a position that will take its toll on an NFL body especially as this type of receiver is typically much smaller than the bodies who will be constantly battering him.
If it had to be Danny or Wes, and Danny stays healthy? I think the Patriots made the right move. However, if Danny is an IR jockey? The Patriots will suffer for this move.

WW is gone, chapter closed. I like where the Patriots are going with the receiving group (losing AH was devastating though). The WR group of the past few years just couldn't get it done in the big, crunch games of January. I'm not putting that on Wes but it was getting old, real old, seeing receivers unable to get open in the big January crunch games. It was getting real old seeing the Patriots high flying offense grounded every friggin time the playoffs rolled around. Now whether BB has made the right choices to put together a new top receiving functionality remains to be seen. But man did I love seeing our receivers actually getting open deep, loved seeing TB airing out passes that actually were going to receivers with a step or two on their defenders.
So when DA comes back, Gronk comes back, Vereen comes back, JE can stay healthy, and Dobson can keeping running like he did in week 2 and catch 'em, I think a lot of fans are gonna be real happy with what the Patriots are doing on offense come week 15/16. The Patriots may end up with about the worst starting passing offense of any team and end up with one of the best of any team by the end of December. I bet that doesn't happen in many seasons......

 

[Mogamedogz]

Id take him back right now without a second thought. And so would all of you. Please, let's stop trying to kid ourselves here.

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

he would have 30 rec if he was still a pat. he's the #4 opt there right now and with them like the packers there is a new receiving star each week he could have 9 rec for 150 yards next week

Which begs the question, did WW care/know/is content being the third or fourth option? And if the answer is yes, did he realize this would likely lead to less money in 2014 and beyond?

The WW situation in Denver is odd. WW is one of the most prolific pass catchers of all time and one of the most automatic passing first downs a team can get. Yet consider Decker is probably about to get a raise (assuming Denver wants to keep him) and Demarius is too (also assuming they want to keep him). It's hard to see Denver devoting 6 million to WW/their #3 WR when their #1 and #2 are about to take up markedly more cap space (relatively). Who knows, maybe Denver's cap position is good and they will make a conscious choice to devote extra to the overall WR position. But more likely than not, WW in Denver is done after one year. Then consider with WW being the #3 or #4 receiving option in Denver, his receiving totals, possibly, will be lowest in many years. This ultimately means WW is in position for less money in 2014 and beyond (beyond because it is not likely he will play with a TB or PM). Ironically his only real payday commensurate to his production was something he fought against, being franchised). The whole situation is certainly not your typical multi 100 reception season player and the contracts he signs.

 

[supafly]

Id take him back right now without a second thought. And so would all of you. Please, let's stop trying to kid ourselves here.

For this season and 2014--absolutely.

Then again, we may not have had the opportunity to try and get a player like Amendola for the future either, so that may/may not have come into the equation.

I know that we've heard the rumors that they both may have been able to come here, but I'd have a hard time imagining Belichick being okay with paying them both 5-6 million AAV at the same time.

The decision may have come down to trying to weigh out the current state vs the future state. I may be off, but it's at least worth consideration.

There's no doubt that we'd all love to have him here right now though, so you'd definitely be right about that.

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

For this season and 2014--absolutely.

Then again, we may not have had the opportunity to try and get a player like Amendola for the future either, so that may/may not have come into the equation.

I know that we've heard the rumors that they both may have been able to come here, but I'd have a hard time imagining Belichick being okay with paying them both 5-6 million AAV at the same time.

The decision may have come down to trying to weigh out the current state vs the future state. I may be off, but it's at least worth consideration.

There's no doubt that we'd all love to have him here right now though, so you'd definitely be right about that.

As of just a few months ago probably 80% of the passing game strategy relied on 4 players. Of these 4 three of them are currently out due to injury and the fourth found another job making license plates. So saying "everyone would take WW back' is a skewed statement. Any team that has lost their 4 primary passing targets would surely want back any productive and competent receiver that is familiar with the QB and system (I'd bet most would also take back Lloyd and Woodhead right now).

It appears BB/JM/Patriots made a conscious decision (right or wrong) to do some serious revamping of the team's passing game/targets. I think they axed every vet they brought in to camp and didn't appear to make any serious effort on the waiver wire or on the trading block to add an established vet. My gut tells me this was a decision born partly out of seeing the highly potent Patriot passing game become much less potent in January (just a hunch). So let's give BB's/JM's plan some time to see it unfold/how much potential can be realized before throwing our hands up to the sky, cry 'why have thou forsaken me!', and beg for the return of WW, our savior. Maybe the football gods will smile on the Patriots by having Vereen, Gronk, DA back in the swing by week 10? Maybe the rookies after having 10 or 11 games of experience will be producing, plus JE appears to be in the process of putting to rest the belief he is not WR material. Personally I am looking forward to what this team can do in the passing game once December rolls around (admittedly that is partly viewed from rose colored glasses).

 

[borg]

I don't think anyone's really saying he isn't good, because he has been so far with the Broncos. That's to be expected.

I think the OP's point about Welker declining is a valid one. Evidence suggests he's definitely in the decline stage of his career. He's not as quick or as fast as he used to be. His hands have definitely let him down as of late. These things aren't disputable.

Nonetheless, he could still be just as effective as he used to be with his experience and veteran savvy.

Tom Brady is a 52% passer this year...below the Sancheezian line...Tebowesque in fact. Is it a valid point to say TB is in decline. " Evidence suggests he's definitely in the decline stage of his career. He's not as quick or as fast as he used to be. His 'throws' have definitely let him down as of late. These things aren't disputable."
Why doesn't this thread get started. Is it because it would disrupt the "all Pats are good all exPats are bad" that the fanboy element clings to religiously.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

...

The stats:

Welker is averaging 5.6 yards per target. I use this stat quite often in evaluating players, as it typically doesn't lie. A star player, such as Calvin Johnson or Gronk or Moss in 07 typically average 10-11. Great players average 9-10. Brandon Lloyd averaged about 7 last season. 5.6- this isn't just below average- it's below starting WR quality, and in that offense? His longest play of the season has been for 20 yards.

You might say that this is a small sample size, and you are correct, but I'm certain about what my eyes have told me watching those first two games. At 32, and 780 catches, Wes Welker is on a rapid decline. Yes, he will still have some good games here and there and make the Broncos a bit better (and I sure wouldn't mind having him here), but he is closer to mediocrity than he is to stardom at this point in his career.

....

He's also closer to playing every week this season than any experienced Pats receiver but Edelman.

The stats you cite (which you do acknowledge are arguably not representative of the bigger picture) are a prime example of the old adage that "There are lies, there are damn lies and then there are statistics."

Your stats overlook the fact that Welker is a reliable go-to-guy when the O needs to stay on the field and, with one notable exception during SB XLVI, seems not only to be able to make what another poster described as "effective" catches but tends to make them at opportune times. I admit that that is just my opinion, but since we aren't doing a serious statistical analysis here, I'll just stand by it until proven otherwise.

But you're entitled to your opinion.

Let's see how the season plays out and I'll be ready happily to eat crow if Amendola, for example, proves to have a better season than Wes, when he gets back on the field and if he stays there for more than a couple of games when he does.

For now, I want him back!

 

[resdubwhite]

He maybe closer to mediocrity.

But if by some miracle he were to line up for the Patriots this week I'd be a happy bunny.

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

His 'throws' have definitely let him down as of late. These things aren't disputable."

So if I throw you the ball, it hits you in the hands, and then you drop it, then it's on me, and I suck?

But if you run the same route, I make the same throw, it hits you in the hands, but instead you catch it, then I'm good?

Just trying to get this straight...

 

[Rory Gallagher]

I think if WW was still on the Pats, we'd all be seeing what I've seen in his two games with the Broncos - he's appeared to have lost a step. In Sunday's game in particular he really looked like he was running in sand. He just doesn't look as quick as he did even last year. I know he hurt his ankle, but hey, he's 32, about 2 years past the time that most WRs start to crash and burn. And let's face it, anyone who has seen his 3 TDs this year would have to admit that they had NOTHING to do with his quickness, route running or hands, and everything to do with guys falling down and blown coverages. I think most of you are giving WW way too much credit.

Also note that he already has 3 bad drops, and a fourth (in a critical situation again) against Baltimore that should have been reviewed. Not saying he sucks, but fully agree that he's closer to mediocre.

 

[Gumby]

Which begs the question, did WW care/know/is content being the third or fourth option? And if the answer is yes, did he realize this would likely lead to less money in 2014 and beyond?

The WW situation in Denver is odd. WW is one of the most prolific pass catchers of all time and one of the most automatic passing first downs a team can get. Yet consider Decker is probably about to get a raise (assuming Denver wants to keep him) and Demarius is too (also assuming they want to keep him). It's hard to see Denver devoting 6 million to WW/their #3 WR when their #1 and #2 are about to take up markedly more cap space (relatively). Who knows, maybe Denver's cap position is good and they will make a conscious choice to devote extra to the overall WR position. But more likely than not, WW in Denver is done after one year. Then consider with WW being the #3 or #4 receiving option in Denver, his receiving totals, possibly, will be lowest in many years. This ultimately means WW is in position for less money in 2014 and beyond (beyond because it is not likely he will play with a TB or PM). Ironically his only real payday commensurate to his production was something he fought against, being franchised). The whole situation is certainly not your typical multi 100 reception season player and the contracts he signs.

BUILT TO WIN NOW!! Baby.

PM just alluded before the NYG game that his end is approaching (wont be around to play a manning-bowl in 17). If the Donkeys DO make it to the SB and he wins #2 (to match his brother); I could see PM doing an Elway and retiring to go out on top (or best-case longevity trying for a repeat like Elway and retiring after the 14/15 season). I think he sticks through 14/15 if he doesnt get one this year; but that is likely the end of the line.

I think Denver (Elway) is well aware of PM's timelines (by 1:1 discussions) and so they are willing to go into short-term cap-hell to get one or two REAL-GOOD shots at a title.
[ and hell; if NFL is so lame about enforcing cap as they were for Elways titles..... THEY CAN ALWAYS CHEAT (or get another cap-free year)].

Regardless they will have all kinds of cap problems in 1-2 years not just with offense skill players (dont forget Moreno in addition to WRs); but also to keep their Defense intact. Von Miller and their CBs etc will all want to "GET PAID" if they have a 'SB CHAMPION" after their names and regardless if they just have the season everyone is predicting for them -- they will have the stats and blown up egos to seek big $$$s.

So, it is what it is. Bob Kraft said it: "HE CHOSE TO TAKE A 1-YEAR DEAL." That is what he got. If he wants to stick for 2 in Denver; I almost guarantee he will have to take a pay-cut on the non-guaranteed 2d year. Just based on his own lower production from their lack of targeting (if not from him actually physically slowing).

 

[Triumph]

WW has 12 catches....3 for TDs...the remaining 9 catches were all for first downs. Some afterthought. I love your analysis though. It's as if teams just ignore WW and the ball mistaken winds up in his arms in the end zone by accident.

Welker already has half of the TDs he had last season in NE. He is on pace to have a double digit TD season which is something he never did in NE. Hes also on pace for 96 receptions. Thats some slowing down.

I guess being a Redzone threat is bad.

Wes Welker NFL Football Statistics - Pro-Football-Reference.com

 

[shmessy]

are we playing the Broncos this week???

uh...no...we're playing Tampa Bay

try Google...search "Denver Bronco message boards"...pick one...sign up...log on...put up all the threads and post all the message you want on a DENVER BRONCO FOOTBALL PLAYER.

Welker is G-O-N-E from New England. He is NEVER coming back here. Get over it...

Well then, by your reasoning, and given your posting history......

....... I guess we play the Jets every single week of the year.

 

[shmessy]

I dunno. I think I'd take those three mediocre TDs he has so far this year...

Edelman has 2 and has double the receptions.

And he's doing that at 1/6 the cap space.

That being said, do I wish Welker was still with the Pats? You bet! He's a great weapon.

 

[everlong]

If you watched the games he's not the same player. One of the things that always made him special was the YAC. It's simply not there now because his margin of beating the defender is less than before. He's had some bad drops as well. I was in the camp that thought he would go to Denver and not miss a beat but the early returns just don't seem like that will be the case.

2013 12 REC 26 YAC 2.16 AVG
2012 118 REC 702 YAC 5.95 AVG
2011 122 REC 732 YAC 6.00 AVG
2010 86 REC 411 YAC 4.80 AVG (Coming off ACL)
2009 123 REC 709 YAC 5.76 AVG
2008 111 REC 751 YAC 6.77 AVG (Matt Cassel)
2007 112 REC 626 YAC 5.59 AVG

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

Catches in the endzone have zero YAC, but I'll take them.

The 2 game sample size is too small to draw the conclusions for 2013 that many are making, plus there are other variables such as a new offense, a new QB relationship, an ankle injury, etc.

Wes's start is suggestive of declining skills, but give it a month before declaring a short term trend to be the new reality, please!

 

[shmessy]

Catches in the endzone have zero YAC, but I'll take them.

The 2 game sample size is too small to draw the conclusions for 2013 that many are making, plus there are other variables such as a new offense, a new QB relationship, an ankle injury, etc.

Wes's start is suggestive of declining skills, but give it a month before declaring a short term trend to be the new reality, please!

What do his DROPS suggest?

Pre 2011, we NEVER talked about his drops. His hands were money.