I agree that those would be New England's Keys to Victory ... but actually accomplishing those will be easier said than done. Let me go through each of them point by point ...
1. The Patriots need to run the ball on offense to set up the play action in the passing game.
That is much easier said than done. Let me explain. It appears to me that in terms of the Patriots and their passing attack that it has been SO prolific that most of the teams that you've faced up to this point in time have run a lot of nickel and dime packages out there much of the time. That right there has inevitably lead to more yardage for Steven Ridley and Brandon Bolden, as DB's traditionally have a harder time bringing down RB's. But the problem that the Seahawks will pose is that they spend a majority of the time in their Base Package, as they have been able to get excellent penetration with just the front 4. That pressure starts right up the middle with DT Brandon Mebane, who has been playing out of his mind of late. Former Seahawks LB
Dave Wyman compared Mebane's play recently to that of Hall of Famer Cortez Kennedy. That's saying something because Wyman played many years with Kennedy. DE Red Bryant has been another who's been a stalwart at shutting down the run. Together, those 2 penetrate in to opposing backfields on a regular basis, both closing down running lanes and opening up opportunities for other guys to get to the QB. Unlike past Seahawk teams, they have been not had to commit extra personnel to blitzing in order to generate pressure on the QB and to close down rushing lanes. So, finding a way to neutralize Mebane and Bryant especially will very much be key to opening things up for the Patriots Offense. During those times in which play action has been used, this group as a whole has shown very fast closing/catch-up speed, which can somewhat minimize its impact.
2. The Patriots offense needs to take advantage of the middle of the field in the passing game.
The Seahawks linebackers and secondary are among the biggest, strongest, and fastest in the NFL. While you're correct in your assertion that Browner and Sherman are very adept at shutting down opposing receivers on the outsides ... the rest of the defense is quite capable of sealing up those alleys across the middle as well. SS Kam Chancellor is not only speedy (he's run a 4.46 40), excellent in coverage, and a sure tackler ... he has all the size of a traditional LB (6'3" 232) and packs a whallop when he collides with opposing offensive players. There's a reason he made the Pro Bowl last season. Playing center field, FS Earl Thomas has very quickly established himself as one of the very best in the game. With blazing speed, fantastic instincts, and great coverage skills, he has the ability the play CB if need be. As a very sure tackler who can get to opposing runners in a hurry, he shrinks the field in very much the same way as Troy Polamalu does. LB's Leroy Hill, K.J. Wright, and Bobby Wagner are all extremely fast large LB's (all around 240 lbs) who have shown an ability not only to take on RB's, but also very effective in pass coverage as well. All 3 guys have a real nose for the ball and routinely are around it.
3. The defensive line need to push the pocket back and get their hands up.
The Seahawks come in to this game a bit banged up on the OL, as LG John Moffitt is out due to a knee injury ... and James Carpenter is in. Carpenter has struggled with his mobility in the passing game, Tackles Breno Giacomini and Russell Okung have as well, and C Max Under has been banged up, so this might potentially be an area of weakness the Pats Defensive line could exploit.
Getting consistent pressure is a sure fire way to defeat most QB's regardless of height. Much has made of Russell Wilson's lack of stature but frankly thus far ... we are fairly short on evidence that the fact that Russell Wilson's 5'11" frame is much of an issue for several reasons:
A] Russell Wilson has a very high release point, therefore he plays much taller than he actually is because of that.
B] Wilson played behind the tallest offensive line in all of College Football last year (the Wisconsin line averaged 6'5") and still he managed to complete 72.8% of his passes.
C] Seattle's OC Darrell Bevell has had Wilson in shotgun a lot of the time, so that gives him a better view of things right there.
D] Designed roll-outs for Wilson are an integral part of the playbook. Unlike Tom Brady who has all the mobility of a sequoia, Wilson runs a 40 in 4.48 seconds. So, Kyle Love, Vince Wilfork, and crew are going to have to really be able to move laterally in a hurry if they want to shut down Wilson. And Wilson showed in the Pre-season ... he was at his creative best (and things happened) when he was on the move. Look for that trend to continue on Sunday.
Lastly, ESPN's
Mike Sando did a piece after Week 2 in which he took a look at Russell Wilson and the batted ball issue. At that time, his analysis showed that Wilson was right on par with many other starting QB's throughout the league. From what I've seen since that time, Russell Wilson, the batted down passes, and the whole height issue has been much ado about nothing.
4. The Patriots need to take away Seahawks tight end Zach Miller in the passing game.
Admittedly, Seattle has struggled converting on 3rd Down to this point (they've converted 32.8% of 3rd downs, 25th in the league). Zach Miller is but 1 weapon that Wilson will look to in the passing game. Sidney Rice, who leads the team with 17 receptions, would be the logical #1 target ... but actually, Wilson's favorite target of late has been Golden Tate (10 receptions, but 3 TD's). Anthony McCoy (Seattle's other TE) and Doug Baldwin are also ones to watch for -- especially on 3rd Down. Baldwin was Seattle's leading receiver last season and showed a propensity for making the catches in the clutch. Despite what the statistics might indicate, Seattle's passing offense isn't Zach Miller and no one else.
5. The Patriots need to limit running back Marshawn Lynch.
Again, this is much easier said than done. Though the Seahawks Offensive Line has struggled in pass protection at times ... they have shown themselves to be very good at run blocking and opening up lanes for Lynch. Even James Carpenter (who will be replacing John Moffit in this game at LG) has shown a real nastiness in run blocking that coach Tom Cable loves. It's no secret that Pete Carroll and the Seahawks want to run the ball in this game, as chewing up the clock on the ground is an effective weapon for limiting opportunities for Tom Brady to get the ball in his hands. Lynch comes in to this game with the 3rd most rushing yards in the game and averaging 4.5 yards/carry.
Carroll and the Seahawks lineman know that they'll have their hands full in trying to punch holes in the Patriots Defensive Line.
More than likely, New England will probably stack the box with 7 guys, trying to close down the running lanes, put pressure on Russell Wilson, and force the young rookie to beat them through the air. Carroll and the rest of the Seahawks know that as well ... which is why I believe that is exactly Seattle will look to do. The statistics appear to indicate that the Patriots secondary is a real Achilles Heel on this team, which is why I'd look for the Seahawks to look to exploit it. Don't be surprised if the Seahawks take some shots down the field, as Wilson hit Golden Tate for a 56 yard completion in the Carolina Game (which was ultimately called back due to a holding penalty on Giacomini). In that game, Russell Wilson showed some real promising glimpses that he may be starting to come in to his own. So personally, I'd look for Carroll and company to look to set up the RUN ... with the PASS in this game (not vice versa) in order to try get the defense back on its heels and to open up the ground game.
If there is one thing that I am fairly certain of in this game, is that it won't be comfortable or easy for the Patriots by any means. Century Link Field is an absolute House of Horrors, as since 2005 there have been more False Start Penalties committed there by opposing teams than anywhere in the NFL. Given that this is being played IN Seattle, I'm thinking 24-20 Seahawks ... though it would not surprise me in the least to see the exact same score the other way. Brady and company MAY end up coming away with a victory in this game in the end ... but I can promise they're going to be fairly black and blue come Monday morning.
